• 제목/요약/키워드: uncertainty assessment

검색결과 678건 처리시간 0.028초

The Benefits and Challenges of Interprofessional Education Assessment for Health Care Professionals

  • Tan, Celia Ia Choo;Jiang, Bo
    • 의학교육논단
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    • 제19권3호
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    • pp.152-157
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    • 2017
  • Interprofessional education (IPE) fosters effective team-based collaborative practice among members of different health care professions to advance high-quality and safe patient care. Although the importance of IPE has been recognized and IPE initiatives have expanded rapidly in the past decades, substantial difficulties in IPE assessment still exist. At present, a lack of consensus on the optimal approach to IPE assessment contributes to uncertainty about the level of attainment of collaborative team performance. This paper aims to provide an overview of the benefits and current challenges associated with IPE assessment. Furthermore, a multifactor model with an assessment matrix and assessment blueprints from a recent study is briefly discussed. We also provide examples of assessment blueprints for the team management of stroke patient discharge covering a competency examination at the levels of individuals, the team, and the task.

Market-Based Transmission Expansion Planning Under Uncertainty in Bids by Fuzzy Assessment

  • Kamyab, Gholam-Reza;Fotuhi-Firuzabad, Mahmood;Rashidinejad, Masoud
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • 제7권4호
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    • pp.468-479
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    • 2012
  • In this paper, by a simple example it is shown that existing market-based criteria alone cannot completely and correctly evaluate the transmission network expansion from market view. However criteria congestion cost (CC) and social welfare (SW) together are able to correctly evaluate transmission network from market view and so they are adopted for the market-based transmission expansion planning. To simply indicate the limits of CC and SW social welfare percentage (SWP) and congestion cost percentage (CCP) are defined. To consider uncertainty in bids of market producers and consumers, and also indeterminacy in the acceptable boundaries of the SWP and CCP and their priorities, fuzzy assessment approach is used. In this approach, appropriate fuzzy sets and a fuzzy rule base are provided to evaluate the acceptability of an expansion plan. Then, the least-investment cost plan, which is acceptable in all probable scenarios, is searched. The proposed method is applied to an 8-bus system.

풍력자원 계측자료 분석용 상용 소프트웨어 비교분석 (Comparative Analysis of Commercial Softwares for Wind Climate Data Analysis)

  • 김현구
    • 신재생에너지
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    • 제6권2호
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    • pp.5-11
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    • 2010
  • This paper reviews three commercial softwares for wind climate data analysis in wind resource assessment; WAsP/Observed Wind Climate, WindRose and Windographer. Windographer is evaluated as the best software because of its variety of input data format, analysis functions, easiness of user interface, etc. For a quantitative understanding of uncertainty depending on software selection, a benchmark is carried out with the met-mast observation dataset at the Gimnyeong Wind Turbine Performance Test Site. It is found that Weibull parameter calculation and air density correction have a dependency on the software so that such uncertainty should be considered when an analysis software is selected. It is confirmed that annual energy production calculated by WAsP using a statistical table of frequency of occurrence may have some error compared to a time-series calculation method used by the other softwares.

퍼지이론을 이용한 호소의 부영양화등급 판정방법 개발 (Development of Fuzzy Method for Judging Lake Eutrophication Grades)

  • 이용운;권병택
    • 환경영향평가
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    • 제15권1호
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    • pp.35-43
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    • 2006
  • The eutrophication in lakes is caused by the inflow of excessive nitrogen and phosphorus, which are not only pollutants to reduce the value of water resource but also nutrients for algae growth that debases water quality. Several methods have been used to judge the eutrophication grades of lakes, but the judgment results can be different with one another even under same coditions because each method is different in judgment items and their standards. A method for overcoming the problem with the judgment of eutrophication grades is, therefore, developed in this study with the application of fuzzy theory. This method allows decision makers to represent the uncertainties (differences) of results by the existing judgment methods and also incorporate associated uncertainties directly into the judgment process, so the judgment results can be made that are more realistic and consistent than those made without taking uncertainty in account.

Reliability assessment of EPB tunnel-related settlement

  • Goh, Anthony T.C.;Hefney, A.M.
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • 제2권1호
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    • pp.57-69
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    • 2010
  • A major consideration in the design of tunnels in urban areas is the prediction of the ground movements and surface settlements associated with the tunneling operations. Excessive ground movements can damage adjacent building and utilities. In this paper, a neural network model is used to predict the maximum surface settlement, based on instrumented results from three separate EPB tunneling projects in Singapore. This paper demonstrates that by coupling the trained neural network model to a spreadsheet optimization technique, the reliability assessment of the settlement serviceability limit state can be carried out using the first-order reliability method. With this method, it is possible to carry out sensitivity studies to examine the effect of the level of uncertainty of each parameter uncertainty on the probability that the serviceability limit state has been exceeded.

벼논에서 폐쇄형 자동 챔버 시스템으로 측정한 메탄 농도에 대한 요인별 측정 불확도 비교 (Measurement Uncertainty of Methane Concentrations from a Rice Paddy Measured by a Closed Automated Chamber System)

  • 주옥정;강남구;임갑준
    • 한국환경농학회지
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    • 제39권3호
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    • pp.228-236
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    • 2020
  • BACKGROUND: The closed chamber method is the most commonly used for measuring greenhouse gas emissions from rice fields. This method has the advantages of being simple, easily available and economical. However, a measurement result using the chamber method is an estimated value and is complete when the uncertainty is estimated. The methane emissions from a rice paddy account for the largest portion of the greenhouse gas emissions in the agriculture sectors. Although assessment of uncertainty components affecting methane emission from a rice paddy is necessary to take account of dispersion characteristics, research on these uncertainty components is very rare to date. The goal of this study was to elucidate influencing factors on measurement uncertainty of methane concentrations measured by a closed automated chamber system from a rice paddy. METHODS AND RESULTS: The methane sampling system is located in the rice paddy in Gyeonggi-do Agricultural Research and Extension Services (37°13'15"N, 127°02'22"E). The primary measurement uncertainty components influencing methane concentrations (influencing factors) investigated in this research were repeatability, reproducibility and calibration in the aspects of methane sampling and analytical instrumentation. The magnitudes of the relative standard uncertainty of each influencing factor were quantified and compared. CONCLUSION: Results of this study showed what influencing factors were more important in determination of methane concentrations measured using the chamber system and analytical instrumentation located in the monitoring site. Quantifying the measurement uncertainty of the methane concentrations in this study would contribute to improving measurement quality of methane fluxes.

미래 기후변화 시나리오와 수문모형 매개변수에 따른 미래 유량예측 불확실성 (Uncertainty of future runoff projection according to SSP scenarios and hydrologic model parameters)

  • 김진혁;송영훈;정은성
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
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    • 제56권1호
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    • pp.35-43
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    • 2023
  • 미래 유량분석은 기후변화 시나리오와 수문모형의 매개변수에 영향을 받고 이에 따른 불확실성이 존재한다. 본 연구에서는 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 시나리오와 수문모형 매개변수에 따른 미래 유량 분석의 불확실성을 분석하고자 하였다. SSP 시나리오 중, 대표적으로 사용되는 SSP2-4.5와 SSP5-8.5시나리오를 사용하였으며, 수문모형으로는 Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) 모형을 사용하였다. SWAT 모형의 매개변수는 SWAT-CUP을 이용해 관측된 유량 데이터에 따라 총 11개의 기간에 대해 매개변수 최적화를 각각 수행하였다. 그 후 분포의 차이를 계산 할 수 있는 Jensen-Shannon Divergence (JS-D)를 이용해 과거 유량 대비 미래 추정된 유량의 불확실성 분석을 수행하였다. 분석결과 미래 유량의 불확실성은 SSP5-8.5에서 SSP2-4.5보다 더 크게 분석되었으며, 가까운 미래(2021-2060년) 보다 먼 미래(2061-2100년)에서 더 크게 분석되었다. 강우-유출 분석은 수문모형 매개변수에 따라 88.5%-108.5%까지 차이가 발생하였으며, 이에 따라 미래 유량을 추정하는데 불확실성이 발생하였다. 본 연구에서의 수문 모형의 매개변수에 따른 미래 유량 추정의 불확실성은 평년 대비 유량이 적은 연도의 관측 유량 데이터를 이용한 매개변수를 이용할 시 불확실성이 크게 분석되었다. 또한 평년 대비 유량 변화가 큰 기간의 매개 변수일수록 미래 유량 추정의 불확실성이 크게 분석되었다.

불확실성을 고려한 철도 교량의 LCC분석 시스템 개발 (Development of Uncertainty-Based Life-Cycle Cost System for Railroad Bridges)

  • 조중연;선종완;김이현;조효남
    • 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국철도학회 2007년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.1158-1164
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    • 2007
  • Recently, the demand on the practical application of life-cycle cost effectiveness for design and rehabilitation of civil infrastructure is rapidly growing unprecedentedly in civil engineering practice. Accordingly, it is expected that the life-cycle cost in the 21st century will become a new paradigm for all engineering decision problems in practice. However, in spite of impressive progress in the researches on the LCC, so far, most researches in Koreahave only focused on roadway bridges, which are not applicable to railway bridges. Thus, this paper presents the formulation models and methods for uncertainty-based LCCA for railroad bridges consideringboth objective statistical data available in the agency database of railroad bridges management and subjective data obtained form interviews with experts of the railway agency, which are used to anew uncertainty-based expected maintenance/repair costs including lifetime indirect costs. For reliable assessment of the life-cycle maintenance/repair costs, statistical analysis considering maintenance history data and survey data including the subjective judgments of railway experts on maintenance/management of railroad bridges, are performed to categorize critical maintenance items and associated expected costs and uncertainty-based deterioration models are developed. Finally, the formulation for simulation-based LCC analysis of railway bridges with uncertainty-based deterioration models are applied to the design-decision problem, which is to select an optimal bridge type having minimum Life-Cycle cost among various railway bridges types such as steel plate girder bridge, and prestressed concrete girder bridge in the basic design phase.

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RISK-INFORMED REGULATION: HANDLING UNCERTAINTY FOR A RATIONAL MANAGEMENT OF SAFETY

  • Zio, Enrico
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제40권5호
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    • pp.327-348
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    • 2008
  • A risk-informed regulatory approach implies that risk insights be used as supplement of deterministic information for safety decision-making purposes. In this view, the use of risk assessment techniques is expected to lead to improved safety and a more rational allocation of the limited resources available. On the other hand, it is recognized that uncertainties affect both the deterministic safety analyses and the risk assessments. In order for the risk-informed decision making process to be effective, the adequate representation and treatment of such uncertainties is mandatory. In this paper, the risk-informed regulatory framework is considered under the focus of the uncertainty issue. Traditionally, probability theory has provided the language and mathematics for the representation and treatment of uncertainty. More recently, other mathematical structures have been introduced. In particular, the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence is here illustrated as a generalized framework encompassing probability theory and possibility theory. The special case of probability theory is only addressed as term of comparison, given that it is a well known subject. On the other hand, the special case of possibility theory is amply illustrated. An example of the combination of probability and possibility for treating the uncertainty in the parameters of an event tree is illustrated.