• Title/Summary/Keyword: uncertain data

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Application of the Poisson Cluster Rainfall Generation Model to the Urban Flood Analysis (포아송 클러스터 강우 생성 모형을 이용한 도시 홍수 해석)

  • Park, Hyunjin;Yang, Jungsuk;Han, Jaemoon;Kim, Dongkyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.48 no.9
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    • pp.729-741
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    • 2015
  • This study examined the applicability of MBLRP (Modified Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse) rainfall generation model for an urban flood simulation which is a type of Poisson cluster rainfall generation model. This study constructed XP-SWMM model for Namgajwa area of Hongjecheon basin, which is a two-dimensional pipe network-surface flood simulation program and computed a flood discharge and a flooded area with input data of synthetic rainfall time series of 200 years that were generated by the MBLRP model. This study compared the data of flood with synthetic rainfall and flood with corresponding values which were based on design rainfall. The results showed that the flooded area computed with MBLRP model was somewhat smaller than the corresponding values on the basis of the design. A degree of underestimation was from 8% (5 year) to 34% (200 year) and the degree of underestimation increased as a return period increased. This study is meaningful in that it proposes methodology that enables quantifiability of uncertain variables which are related to a flooding through Monte Carlo analysis of urban flooding simulation and applicability and limitations thereof.

Exploratory Sensitivity Analysis of Environmental Equity to Spatial to Measures (공간척도 유형에 따른 환경적 형평성의 민감도 분석)

  • Jun, Byong-Woon
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.508-521
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    • 2006
  • The results of environmental equity analysis vary dramatically depending on different methods used. The information and data available to the researcher are also often uncertain and imprecise in empirical studies. A sensitivity analysis approach was used too handle uncertainties and methodological inconsistencies in environmental equity analysis. This paper explores the sensitivity of environmental equity analysis to two spatial measures such as proximity and scale. Two experiments were implemented to evaluate the effects of two spatial measures on the environmental equity analysis using a combination of control and experimental factors. Fulton County, Georgia was selected as a case study area for these experiments. Two major data sets including demographic characteristics and toxic release inventory (TRI) database for the study area in 1990 were integrated into a GIS environment. Two statistical analyses such as independent samples t-test and coefficient of variation were performed to determine the environmental equity in the study area and to compare the relative variability in the socioeconomic characteristics of populations over different spatial measures. The findings from two experiments indicate that the outcomes of environmental equity analysis are slightly sensitive to the buffer distance used to determine the impact zones of TRI facilities, but not to the geographic scale used in the analysis. The findings also suggest that the consequences of these choices can alter spatially and statistically the results in environmental equity analysis.

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Development of Cut-in Lane Changing Model Based on Observed Driver's Behavior in Uninterrupted Traffic Flow (연속교통류에서의 끼어들기 행태 분석 및 모형 개발)

  • Kim, Kyung-Hee;Chang, Myung-Soon;Kim, Jin-Tae;Kim, Eung-Cheol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.145-157
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    • 2004
  • Microscopic freeway simulation models project the uncertain values of performance measures for subject traffic conditions by explaining drivers' driving behavior with lane changing and car-following models. However, the existing lane changing models are limited to gap acceptance oriented passive behavior of drivers and not able to capture more-or-less aggressive driving behavior(e.g. cut-in lane changing) ordinarily obseved in field. This paper suggests the definition of cut-inlane changing and presents its characteristics based on the findings from two different freeway on- and off-ramp sections. In addition, this paper proposes a new lane changing model capable of handling both passive and active drivers' driving behavior for better performance of simulations. The proposed lane changing model was tested with Hanyang Simulatin (HYTSIM), a microscopic freeway simulation program developed for this study. The HYTSIM simulation results reflecting the performance of the proposed lane changing model were compared against the field data. The test results showed that the distribution of gaps collected when vehicles change lanes were statistically identical to the field data at 95% confidence level.

A Study on Methodology for Improving Demand Forecasting Models in the Designated Driver Service Market (대리운전 시장의 지역별 수요 예측 모형의 성능 향상을 위한 방법론 연구)

  • Min-Seop Kim;Ki-Kun Park;Jae-Hyeon Heo;Jae-Eun Kwon;Hye-Rim Bae
    • The Journal of Bigdata
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.23-34
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    • 2023
  • Nowadays, the Designated Driver Services employ dynamic pricing, which adapts in real-time based on nearby driver availability, service user volume, and current weather conditions during the user's request. The uncertain volatility is the main cause of price increases, leading to customer attrition and service refusal from driver. To make a good Designated Driver Services, development of a demand forecasting model is required. In this study, we propose developing a demand forecasting model using data from the Designated Driver Service by considering normal and peak periods, such as rush hour and rush day, as prior knowledge to enhance the model performance. We propose a new methodology called Time-Series with Conditional Probability(TSCP), which combines conditional probability and time-series models to enhance performance. Extensive experiments have been conducted with real Designated Driver Service data, and the result demonstrated that our method outperforms the existing time-series models such as SARIMA, Prophet. Therefore, our study can be considered for decision-making to facilitate proactive response in Designated Driver Services.

Why Is a b-value Range of 1500-2000 s/mm2 Optimal for Evaluating Prostatic Index Lesions on Synthetic Diffusion-Weighted Imaging?

  • So Yeon Cha;EunJu Kim;Sung Yoon Park
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.922-930
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    • 2021
  • Objective: It is uncertain why a b-value range of 1500-2000 s/mm2 is optimal. This study was aimed at qualitatively and quantitatively analyzing the optimal b-value range of synthetic diffusion-weighted imaging (sDWI) for evaluating prostatic index lesions. Materials and Methods: This retrospective study included 92 patients who underwent DWI and targeted biopsy for magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-suggested index lesions. We generated sDWI at a b-value range of 1000-3000 s/mm2 using dedicated software and true DWI data at b-values of 0, 100, and 1000 s/mm2. We hypothesized that lesion conspicuity would be best when the background (i.e., MRI-suggested benign prostatic [bP] and periprostatic [pP] regions) signal intensity (SI) is suppressed and becomes homogeneous. To prove this hypothesis, we performed both qualitative and quantitative analyses. For qualitative analysis, two independent readers analyzed the b-value showing the best visual conspicuity of an MRI-suggested index lesion. For quantitative analysis, the readers assessed the b-value showing the same bP and pP region SI. The 95% confidence interval (CI) or interquartile range of qualitatively and quantitatively selected optimal b-values was assessed, and the mean difference between qualitatively and quantitatively selected b-values was investigated. Results: The 95% CIs of optimal b-values from qualitative and quantitative analyses were 1761-1805 s/mm2 and 1640-1771 s/mm2 (median, 1790 s/mm2 vs. 1705 s/mm2; p = 0.003) for reader 1, and 1835-1895 s/mm2 and 1705-1841 s/mm2 (median, 1872 s/mm2 vs. 1763 s/mm2; p = 0.022) for reader 2, respectively. Interquartile ranges of qualitatively and quantitatively selected optimal b-values were 1735-1873 s/mm2 and 1573-1867 s/mm2 for reader 1, and 1775-1945 s/mm2 and 1591-1955 s/mm2 for reader 2, respectively. Bland-Altman plots consistently demonstrated a mean difference of less than 100 s/mm2 between qualitatively and quantitatively selected optimal b-values. Conclusion: b-value range showing a homogeneous background signal may be optimal for evaluating prostatic index lesions on sDWI. Our qualitative and quantitative data consistently recommend b-values of 1500-2000 s/mm2.

The Association between Pulmonary Function Test Result and Combustible Cigarette Smoking or Electrical Cigarette Smoking in Korean Adults : Using the 2014-2019 Korean national health and nutrition examination survey data (한국 성인에서 일반담배 또는 가열 전자담배를 이용한 흡연 형태와 폐 기능 검사 결과와의 관련성: 2014-2019년도 국민건강영양조사 자료를 이용하여)

  • Il-hwan Kim;Il-Hyun Lee;Sae-Ron Shin
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Integrative Medicine
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.27-39
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    • 2024
  • Purpose : Smoking is a major factor in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), but the effect of electrical cigarette smoking on COPD development is still uncertain. This study aimed to compare the functions of airways and lungs exposed to combustible cigarettes and electrical cigarettes based on the pulmonary function test (PFT) results from the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Methods : This study used data from 8,942 participants with PFT results out of 47,309 total subjects from the 6th to 8th Korean NHANES (2014-2015, 2016-2018, and 2019, respectively). Individuals with diseases such as cancer, ex-smokers, and dual tobacco users were excluded. The PFT results were analyzed according to the COPD diagnostic criteria. After adjusting for confounding variables, a complex sample generalized linear model ANOVA test was performed to investigate the association between PFT results and combustible smoker or electrical cigarette user groups. Results : In an analysis based on the obstructive ventilatory disorders (forced expiratory volume in 1 second[FEV1]/forced vital capacity[FVC]<.7), combustible cigarette smokers showed a 3.46 times higher risk of COPD compared to non-smokers, while electrical cigarette smokers exhibited no significant difference in terms of COPD-related risks compared to non-smokers. FEV1 showed a negative relation with combustible cigarette smokers as reported elsewhere (B=-.07, p<.001). FEV1/FVC was negatively related to both combustible cigarette smokers (B=-.03, p<.001) and electrical cigarette smokers (B=-.02, p<.001). Conclusion : FEV1/FVC decreases were observed in the long-term exposure to both combustible and electrical cigarettes. The lower FEV1 in the combustible cigarette group implies the worsening of the severity of COPD, suggesting more damage to the airways and lungs in the short term. Therefore, the temporary electrical cigarettes use for the transition period in order to smoking cessation potentially aids to reduce the harmful effect of combustible cigarettes in COPD development.

Consideration on Domestic Production of Materials and Consumables for Human IVF-ET Program (체외수정 및 배아이식술 관련 재료 및 소모품의 국산화 필요성에 대한 고찰)

  • Cha, Byung-Hun;Jun, Jin-Hyun
    • Development and Reproduction
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.385-391
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    • 2011
  • Human in vitro fertilization and embryo transfer (IVF-ET) program is a general procedure for infertile couples since first successful delivery on 1978 in UK and Korean first on 1985. Recently in Korea, more than 42,000 cases per year of IVF-ET were performed and showed good pregnancy rates compared worldwide data. The human IVF-ET procedure use many consumables, such as ovum pick-up (OPU) needles, centrifuge tubes, culture dish, ICSI pipette, culture media and ET catheters. Major of these materials are supported by the global companies. Thus, Korean IVF-ET program might be placed unstable situation by global economical risks. These uncertain problems could be overcome by the domestic production of IVF-ET materials and consumables. Two times questionnaires for Korean clinicians and researchers about the domestic production were performed and analyzed. Many of them requested domestic OPU needles, ET catheters, culture media and ICSI pipettes under good quality control and quality assurance system. This trial may be contributed to industrialization and to global competence of Korean IVF-ET program. The results of this survey can be provide a fundamental base for development and production of domestic materials and consumables for human IVF-ET program.

A study on the job awareness of dental hygienists and their job performance (치과위생사의 수행업무에 대한 인식도 및 실태조사)

  • Sim, Su-Hyun;Hwang, Yoon-Sook
    • Journal of Korean society of Dental Hygiene
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.153-166
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    • 2007
  • The job of dental hygienists is specialized, and they have to be capable of performing their primary duties including prevention of oral diseases, oral prophylaxis, and oral health education. To ensure their successful job performance, dentists should have an accurate understanding of their duties and need a change of mind-set about them. And there should be written legal and concrete regulations on the coverage of their work in order to let them boost their job performance with pride and a sense of responsibility. The purpose of this study was to examine the actual roles and job performance of dental hygienists in clinical field in an attempt to discuss the substantial job performance of dental hygienists and their job enlargement. It's basically meant to help enhance the efficiency and quality of medical services. The subjects in this study were 471 dental hygienists in dental clinics, dental hospitals, university hospitals and general hospitals across the nation, on whom a survey was conducted in person from March 2 to 25, 2005. The collected data were analyzed with SPSS Win 12.0 program, and the findings of the study were as follows: 1. The major jobs they currently performed included oral health education, hospital management, simple duties, extensive dental hygiene duties and joint treatment assistance. They hoped to continue to be responsible for oral health education, preventive treatment and extensive dental hygiene duties. 2. As for their current job by age, extensive dental hygiene duties, preventive treatment, joint treatment assistance, preserving treatment, prosthetic treatment and pediatric treatment were most conducted by the dental hygienists who were at the age of 26 to less than 31, and those who were at the age of 31 and up were most responsible for hospital management and simple duties. 3. As to job awareness by workplace, their workload was statistically significantly different according to their workplace. The hospital employees took care of more work than those in clinics. 4. Concerning job awareness by age, the younger dental hygienists suffered more role conflicts and were given a less free hand in work handling, the middle-aged group's job was uncertain. Legal regulations about the coverage of their work should be prepared in detail as a measure to stir up their responsible job performance and pride. In order to take advantage of experienced dental hygienists, their duties should be more differentiated and specialized, and their working conditions should be improved to boost their job satisfaction. That is, they should be given ample chances for promotion and serving as a middle manager and be given fair treatment according to their career. If their work is accurately darified and specialized based on career, it will boost the efficiency of dental treatment. Dental hygienists also should direct sustained efforts into self-development in order to become a skilled and professional oral health personnel.

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A Study on Clinical Findings about Vertebral Disease Diagnosed with MRI (MRI로 진단된 척추질환의 임상적 소견)

  • Kim, Ham-Gyum
    • Journal of radiological science and technology
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.157-165
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    • 2006
  • In order to analyze clinical characteristics like sex- and age-based onset frequency and onset region from vertebral disease cases, this study investigated total 1,291 cases of vertebral disease that were diagnosed via magnetic resonance imaging(MRI) from January to December 2004 at B University Hospital in metropolitan area. For higher diagnostic accuracy in cases of spinal disorder diagnosed, this study analyzed findings from data reading conducted by veteran specialists in diagnostic radiology. But this study excluded uncertain lesion cases, the cases requiring differential diagnosis from other disorders and so on from subjects under analysis. This study employed superconductive 1.5 Tesla SIGNA MR/i for MRI test and basically received resulting images via FSE(fast spin echo). In particular, this study obtained T1 and T2 myelogram with regard to regional characteristics(such as cervical vertebrae, thoracic vertebrae and lumbar vertebra) and imaging characteristics for sagittal and transverse section. As a result, this study came to the following conclusions : 1. In terms of general characteristics of subjects under analysis, male group comprised 53.5% and female 46.5% out of total 1,291 subjects. 2. The regional onset frequency of spinal disorders was converged primarily on lumbar vertebra(65.5%), which was followed by cervical vertebrae(27.3%) and thoracic vertebrae(7.0%) respectively. 3. Top 10 cases with high onset frequency of spinal disorders can be listed as follows : 1) posterior bulging disc 65.8% 2) narrowing of neural foramen 23.8% 3) herniated intervertebral disc (HIVD) 22.4% 4) spinal stenosis 16.7% 5) osteochondrosis 6.4% 6) compression fracture 6.4% 7) facet joint arthropathy 6.2% 8) spondylolisthesis 6.0% 9) spinal cord tumor 3.5% 10) inter body fusion 2.6%

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Quantifying Uncertainty for the Water Balance Analysis (물수지 분석을 위한 불확실성 정량화)

  • Lee, Seung-Uk;Kim, Young-Oh;Lee, Dong-Ryul
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.38 no.4 s.153
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    • pp.281-292
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    • 2005
  • The water balance analysis for the long-term water resources plan is a simple calculation that compares water demands with possible water supplies. For a watershed being considered the reports on the performance of the water balance analysis, however, have shown inconsistent results and thus have not earned credibility due to the uncertainty of the data acquired and models used. In this research, uncertainties in the water scarcity estimate were assessed through probability representation based on the Monte Carlo simulation using Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS). The natural flow, municipal demand, industrial demand, agricultural demand, and return flow rate were selected as representative input variables for the water balance analysis, and their distributions were set based on the linear regression and the entropy theory. The statistical properties of the output variable samples were analyzed in comparison with a deterministic estimate of the water scarcity of an existing study. Application of LHS to three sub-basins of the Geum river basin showed the deterministic estimate could be overestimated or underestimated. The sensitivity analysis as well as the uncertainty analysis found that the return flow rate of the agricultural water is the most uncertain but is rarely sensitive to the output of the water balance analysis.