• Title/Summary/Keyword: unbalanced data

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Change Prediction of Forestland Area in South Korea using Multinomial Logistic Regression Model (다항 로지스틱 회귀모형을 이용한 우리나라 산지면적 변화 추정에 관한 연구)

  • KWAK, Doo-Ahn
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.42-51
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    • 2020
  • This study was performed to support the 6th forest basic planning by Korea Forest Service as predicting the change of forestland area by the transition of land use type in the future over 35 years in South Korea. It is very important to analyze upcoming forestland area change for future forest planning because forestland plays a basic role to predict forest resources change for afforestation, production and management in the future. Therefore, the transitional interaction between land use types in future of South Korea was predicted in this study using econometrical models based on past trend data of land use type and related variables. The econometrical model based on maximum discounted profits theory for land use type determination was used to estimate total quantitative change by forestland, agricultural land and urban area at national scale using explanatory variables such as forestry value added, agricultural income and population during over 46 years. In result, it was analyzed that forestland area would decrease continuously at approximately 29,000 ha by 2027 while urban area increases in South Korea. However, it was predicted that the forestland area would be started to increase gradually at 170,000 ha by 2050 because urban area was reduced according to population decrement from 2032 in South Korea. We could find out that the increment of forestland would be attributed to social problems such as urban hollowing and localities extinction phenomenon by steep decrement of population from 2032. The decrement and increment of forestland by unbalanced population immigration to major cities and migration to localities might cause many social and economic problems against national sustainable development, so that future strategies and policies for forestland should be established considering such future change trends of land use type for balanced development and reasonable forestland use and conservation.

The Relations between Financial Constraints and Dividend Smoothing of Innovative Small and Medium Sized Enterprises (혁신형 중소기업의 재무적 제약과 배당스무딩간의 관계)

  • Shin, Min-Shik;Kim, Soo-Eun
    • Korean small business review
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.67-93
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this paper is to explore the relations between financial constraints and dividend smoothing of innovative small and medium sized enterprises(SMEs) listed on Korea Securities Market and Kosdaq Market of Korea Exchange. The innovative SMEs is defined as the firms with high level of R&D intensity which is measured by (R&D investment/total sales) ratio, according to Chauvin and Hirschey (1993). The R&D investment plays an important role as the innovative driver that can increase the future growth opportunity and profitability of the firms. Therefore, the R&D investment have large, positive, and consistent influences on the market value of the firm. In this point of view, we expect that the innovative SMEs can adjust dividend payment faster than the noninnovative SMEs, on the ground of their future growth opportunity and profitability. And also, we expect that the financial unconstrained firms can adjust dividend payment faster than the financial constrained firms, on the ground of their financing ability of investment funds through the market accessibility. Aivazian et al.(2006) exert that the financial unconstrained firms with the high accessibility to capital market can adjust dividend payment faster than the financial constrained firms. We collect the sample firms among the total SMEs listed on Korea Securities Market and Kosdaq Market of Korea Exchange during the periods from January 1999 to December 2007 from the KIS Value Library database. The total number of firm-year observations of the total sample firms throughout the entire period is 5,544, the number of firm-year observations of the dividend firms is 2,919, and the number of firm-year observations of the non-dividend firms is 2,625. About 53%(or 2,919) of these total 5,544 observations involve firms that make a dividend payment. The dividend firms are divided into two groups according to the R&D intensity, such as the innovative SMEs with larger than median of R&D intensity and the noninnovative SMEs with smaller than median of R&D intensity. The number of firm-year observations of the innovative SMEs is 1,506, and the number of firm-year observations of the noninnovative SMEs is 1,413. Furthermore, the innovative SMEs are divided into two groups according to level of financial constraints, such as the financial unconstrained firms and the financial constrained firms. The number of firm-year observations of the former is 894, and the number of firm-year observations of the latter is 612. Although all available firm-year observations of the dividend firms are collected, deletions are made in the case of financial industries such as banks, securities company, insurance company, and other financial services company, because their capital structure and business style are widely different from the general manufacturing firms. The stock repurchase was involved in dividend payment because Grullon and Michaely (2002) examined the substitution hypothesis between dividends and stock repurchases. However, our data structure is an unbalanced panel data since there is no requirement that the firm-year observations data are all available for each firms during the entire periods from January 1999 to December 2007 from the KIS Value Library database. We firstly estimate the classic Lintner(1956) dividend adjustment model, where the decision to smooth dividend or to adopt a residual dividend policy depends on financial constraints measured by market accessibility. Lintner model indicates that firms maintain stable and long run target payout ratio, and that firms adjust partially the gap between current payout rato and target payout ratio each year. In the Lintner model, dependent variable is the current dividend per share(DPSt), and independent variables are the past dividend per share(DPSt-1) and the current earnings per share(EPSt). We hypothesized that firms adjust partially the gap between the current dividend per share(DPSt) and the target payout ratio(Ω) each year, when the past dividend per share(DPSt-1) deviate from the target payout ratio(Ω). We secondly estimate the expansion model that extend the Lintner model by including the determinants suggested by the major theories of dividend, namely, residual dividend theory, dividend signaling theory, agency theory, catering theory, and transactions cost theory. In the expansion model, dependent variable is the current dividend per share(DPSt), explanatory variables are the past dividend per share(DPSt-1) and the current earnings per share(EPSt), and control variables are the current capital expenditure ratio(CEAt), the current leverage ratio(LEVt), the current operating return on assets(ROAt), the current business risk(RISKt), the current trading volume turnover ratio(TURNt), and the current dividend premium(DPREMt). In these control variables, CEAt, LEVt, and ROAt are the determinants suggested by the residual dividend theory and the agency theory, ROAt and RISKt are the determinants suggested by the dividend signaling theory, TURNt is the determinant suggested by the transactions cost theory, and DPREMt is the determinant suggested by the catering theory. Furthermore, we thirdly estimate the Lintner model and the expansion model by using the panel data of the financial unconstrained firms and the financial constrained firms, that are divided into two groups according to level of financial constraints. We expect that the financial unconstrained firms can adjust dividend payment faster than the financial constrained firms, because the former can finance more easily the investment funds through the market accessibility than the latter. We analyzed descriptive statistics such as mean, standard deviation, and median to delete the outliers from the panel data, conducted one way analysis of variance to check up the industry-specfic effects, and conducted difference test of firms characteristic variables between innovative SMEs and noninnovative SMEs as well as difference test of firms characteristic variables between financial unconstrained firms and financial constrained firms. We also conducted the correlation analysis and the variance inflation factors analysis to detect any multicollinearity among the independent variables. Both of the correlation coefficients and the variance inflation factors are roughly low to the extent that may be ignored the multicollinearity among the independent variables. Furthermore, we estimate both of the Lintner model and the expansion model using the panel regression analysis. We firstly test the time-specific effects and the firm-specific effects may be involved in our panel data through the Lagrange multiplier test that was proposed by Breusch and Pagan(1980), and secondly conduct Hausman test to prove that fixed effect model is fitter with our panel data than the random effect model. The main results of this study can be summarized as follows. The determinants suggested by the major theories of dividend, namely, residual dividend theory, dividend signaling theory, agency theory, catering theory, and transactions cost theory explain significantly the dividend policy of the innovative SMEs. Lintner model indicates that firms maintain stable and long run target payout ratio, and that firms adjust partially the gap between the current payout ratio and the target payout ratio each year. In the core variables of Lintner model, the past dividend per share has more effects to dividend smoothing than the current earnings per share. These results suggest that the innovative SMEs maintain stable and long run dividend policy which sustains the past dividend per share level without corporate special reasons. The main results show that dividend adjustment speed of the innovative SMEs is faster than that of the noninnovative SMEs. This means that the innovative SMEs with high level of R&D intensity can adjust dividend payment faster than the noninnovative SMEs, on the ground of their future growth opportunity and profitability. The other main results show that dividend adjustment speed of the financial unconstrained SMEs is faster than that of the financial constrained SMEs. This means that the financial unconstrained firms with high accessibility to capital market can adjust dividend payment faster than the financial constrained firms, on the ground of their financing ability of investment funds through the market accessibility. Futhermore, the other additional results show that dividend adjustment speed of the innovative SMEs classified by the Small and Medium Business Administration is faster than that of the unclassified SMEs. They are linked with various financial policies and services such as credit guaranteed service, policy fund for SMEs, venture investment fund, insurance program, and so on. In conclusion, the past dividend per share and the current earnings per share suggested by the Lintner model explain mainly dividend adjustment speed of the innovative SMEs, and also the financial constraints explain partially. Therefore, if managers can properly understand of the relations between financial constraints and dividend smoothing of innovative SMEs, they can maintain stable and long run dividend policy of the innovative SMEs through dividend smoothing. These are encouraging results for Korea government, that is, the Small and Medium Business Administration as it has implemented many policies to commit to the innovative SMEs. This paper may have a few limitations because it may be only early study about the relations between financial constraints and dividend smoothing of the innovative SMEs. Specifically, this paper may not adequately capture all of the subtle features of the innovative SMEs and the financial unconstrained SMEs. Therefore, we think that it is necessary to expand sample firms and control variables, and use more elaborate analysis methods in the future studies.

A Study on Health Awareness of Middle and High School Students in Yong Nam Area (영남지역(嶺南地域) 중고등학교학생(中高等學校學生)들의 보건의식행태조사(保健意識行態調査) 연구(硏究))

  • Kim, Hyung Nam;Nam, Chul Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of School Health
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.119-135
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    • 1991
  • The study was designed to gain necessary basic data order to grasp health knowledge, attitude, practice level of middle and high school students and to analyse th problem and to point out the method of improvement in the field of school health education. The survery was carried out through this reporter's interview for 2,400 students who attend to ten schools in Young Nam area during the period of a month from 25 the June to 25th July 1989. The result of this study can be summaried as follows. 1. The total number of answers on the question was 2,346. As for general characteristics the percent of female middle school students was 60.6% and the percent of male students was 77.7%, 45.9% of high school students was evening school students. 52.9% of middle school students and 42.3% of high school students were borne in rural area. 2. The percentage of unknown and misunderstanding for Epidemic Hepatitis infection was 46.3% of middle school students and 29.6% of high school students. 3. The percentage of unknown and misunderstanding for Epidemic Hemorrhage fever infection was 85.6% of middle school students and 66.9% of high school students. 4. The percentage of right knowledge for AIDS infection was 66.0% of middle school students and 90.4% of high school students. 5. The percentage of right knowledge for Typhoid infection was 47.8% of middle school students and 69.4% of high school students. 6. The percentage of unknown and misunderstanding for Tuberculosis infection was 71.6% of middle school students and 62.2% of high school students. 7. As for personal hygiene, the percentage of toothbrushing after every meal was high level : 44.2% of middle school students and 42.0% of high school students. 8. 60.9% of middle school students take a bath twice a week, 49.2% oh high school students take a bath a week. Times of bath of middle school students was higher than that of high school students. 9.The percentage of washing hand after using toilet was 42.1% of middle school students and 35.1% of high school students. 49.0% of middle school students and 55.1% of high school students wash hand sometimes after using toilet. 10. The percentage of change of underwear twice a week was 57.6% of middle school students and 49.8% of high school students. 11. The percentage of habit of unbalanced diet was 30.% of middle school students and 27.6% of high school students. 50.8% of middle school students and 51.7% of high school students have balanced diet. 12. Index of health practice of personal hygiene can be summarized as follows. A. A case of middle school students. 1) The percentage of health practice index in male and female was 49.6% and 48.1% respectively. Index of female students was higher than that of male students. 2) As for parent's occupation, public servants and company emplyee was upper level. Farming was low level. 3) As for income level, middle, level with 56.5% was highest in high income level and low level with 27.4% was highest in low income level. B. A case of high school students. 1) Middle level of health practice index was 46.0% of male students, upper and low level was 32.4% and 28.0% of female students respectively. 2) Middle level of health practice index was high in farming and company employee and upper level was high in commerce and service, low level with 60.0% was high in unemployed. 3) Upper practice index 35.7% appears in the rich and low practice index 38.3% appears in the poor. 13. Average points of Health practice about personal hygiene were as follows. (Full marks at 4). A. A case of middle school. Female (1.87 point) was higher than male (1.26 point). Night time (2.03 point) was higher than day time (1.66 point) and middle or small cities (2.17 point) are high than any other places. As for parent's occupation, students whose parents are company clerk get high marks (2.32) and ten students whose parent's job are service get next high marks (2.20). B. A case of high school. Female (1.53 point) was higher than male (1.22 point), as parents educational level were higher the point were higher, and as income level was higher, the points of health practice (1.78) were higher, and as for parents occupation, service get highest point (1.93) and commerce get next high point (1.86) public servant get low point (1.66). 14. The percentage of experience in smoking was 11.9% of middle school students and 60.9% of high school students. 15. The percentage of experience in inhalation of bond and administrating LSD was 4.3% of male middle school students, 8.4% of female middle school students, 6.9% of male high school students and 4.2% of female high school students. The knowledge level of communicable disease infection are very low in middle and high school students and practice level of personal hygiene are also very low. As a whole we can evaluate that middle and high school students are low level of health knowledge and practice. In conclusion, we must consider preparation for school health education program through establishing of health subjects in the carriculum, and securing of health education teachers and using materials and media program of health education. It is very important to establish macroscopic policy and strategy for public health education and to get people have right knowledge and practice for health.

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Dietary Habits and Foodservice Attitudes of Students Attending American International Schools in Seoul and Gyeonggi Area (서울.경기지역 외국인 학교 학생들의 식습관 및 급식만족도 -미국계 외국인 학교를 중심으로-)

  • Kim, Ok-Sun;Lee, Young-Eun
    • Journal of the East Asian Society of Dietary Life
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.744-757
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    • 2012
  • This study was designed to obtain basic data for the globalization of Korean food and the expansion of food exports through contract foodservices. A survey of dietary habits and attitudes toward school foodservices was given to students in three American international schools served by a domestic contract foodservice management company located in Seoul and Gyeonggi area. The results showed an average of three meals taken daily 3.39 times for male students and 2.95 times for female students and the time required for a meal was about 24~26 minutes. The average breakfast frequency was 5.10 times(4.59 times for male students and 5.35 times for female students) and many students reported skipping breakfast due to a lack of time. The average weekly frequency of dining out was 1.78 times(2.15 times for male students and 1.60 times for female students). In all schools, irrespective of gender and grade, students responded that a desire for snacking was 'why they want to have cookies', and snacking hours were frequently listed as 'between noon and evening'. Many also responded that an unbalanced diet is the reason some snacks are 'not to their taste'. Overall, students were highly satisfied with the foodservice menu, although there was a significant difference in what was considered proper food temperature, proper food seasoning, suitable amounts of food, and freshness of food. Male and female students were specifically highly satisfied with the 'freshness of food materials' and 'variety of menu' respectively. Overall, all students were highly satisfied with the foodservice, including the 'cleanliness of tables and trays'.