• 대기
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.503-514
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• 2014

Evaluation of predictability of numerical models for tropical cyclone track was performed using along-and cross-track component. The along-and cross-track bias were useful indicators that show the numerical models predictability associated with cause of errors. Since forecast errors, standard deviation and consistency index of along-track component were greater than those of cross-track component, there was some rooms for improvement in alongtrack component. There was an overall slow bias. The most accurate model was JGSM for 24-hour forecast and ECMWF for 48~96-hour forecast in direct position error, along-track error and cross-track error. ECMWF and GFS had a high variability for 24-hour forecast. The results of predictability by track type showed that most significant errors of tropical cyclone track forecast were caused by the failure to estimate the recurvature phenomenon.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제28권4호
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• pp.311-315
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• 2004

This paper is aimed to develop a mathematical model for making the forecast information of typhoon's movement such as the estimated movement direction and positions after 24 and 48 hours. The proposed model calculates such kind of information of a typhoon by similar past typhoon's track data which are selected with three similarity criteria among the database of typhoons' tracks for past fifty years. We carried out a simulation forecast with No.14 typhoon formed in 1997, and found that the results of the proposed model were reasonable and it would be suitable for a simulation system for training mariners so that they can take suitable actions to evade the typhoons.

• 대기
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• 제17권2호
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• pp.207-216
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• 2007

The Moving-nest Typhoon Model (MTM) was installed on the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA)'s CRAY X1E in 2006 and started its test operation in August 2006 to provide track and intensity forecasts of tropical cyclones. In this study, feasibility of the MTM forecast is compared with the Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS) of the KMA and the operational typhoon forecast models in the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), from the sixth tropical cyclone to the twentieth in 2006. Forecast skills in terms of the storm position error of the two KMA models were comparable, but MTM showed a slightly better ability. While both GDAPS and MTM produced larger errors than JMA models in track forecast, the predicted intensity was much improved by MTM, making it comparable to the JMA's typhoon forecast model. It is believed that the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) bogus initialization method in MTM improves the ability to forecast typhoon intensity.

• 대기
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• 제24권3호
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• pp.419-432
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• 2014

An assessment of typhoon intensity predictability of numerical models was conducted to develop the typhoon intensity forecast guidance comparing with the RSMC-Tokyo best track data. Root mean square error, box plot analysis and time series of wind speed comparison were performed to evaluate the each model error level. One of noticeable fact is that all models have a trend of error increase as typhoon becomes stronger and the Global Forecast System showed the best performance among the models. In the detailed analysis in two typhoon cases [Danas (1324) and Haiyan (1330)], GFS showed good performance in maximum wind speed and intensity trend in the best track, however it could not simulate well the rapid intensity increasing period. On the other hand, ECMWF and Hurricane-WRF overestimated the typhoon intensity but simulated track trend well.

• 대기
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• 제25권2호
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• pp.375-387
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• 2015

A Selected Multi-model CONsensus (SMCON) technique was developed and verified for the tropical cyclone track forecast in the western North Pacific. The SMCON forecasts were produced by averaging numerical model forecasts showing low 70% latest 6 h prediction errors among 21 models. In the homogeneous comparison for 54 tropical cyclones in 2013 and 2014, the SMCON improvement rate was higher than the other forecasts such as the Non-Selected Multi-model CONsensus (NSMCON) and other numerical models (i.e., GDAPS, GEPS, GFS, HWRF, ECMWF, ECMWF_H, ECMWF_EPS, JGSM, TEPS). However, the SMCON showed lower or similar improvement rate than a few forecasts including ECMWF_EPS forecasts at 96 h in 2013 and at 72 h in 2014 and the TEPS forecast at 120 h in 2013. Mean track errors of the SMCON for two year were smaller than the NSMCON and these differences were 0.4, 1.2, 5.9, 12.9, 8.2 km at 24-, 48-, 72-, 96-, 120-h respectively. The SMCON error distributions showed smaller central tendency than the NSMCON's except 72-, 96-h forecasts in 2013. Similarly, the density for smaller track errors of the SMCON was higher than the NSMCON's except at 72-, 96-h forecast in 2013 in the kernel density estimation analysis. In addition, the NSMCON has lager range of errors above the third quantile and larger standard deviation than the SMCON's at 72-, 96-h forecasts in 2013. Also, the SMCON showed smaller bias than ECMWF_H for the cross track bias. Thus, we concluded that the SMCON could provide more reliable information on the tropical cyclone track forecast by reflecting the real-time performance of the numerical models.

• 대기
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• 제21권2호
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• pp.209-220
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• 2011

A new consensus algorithm for the prediction of tropical cyclone track has been developed. Conventional consensus is a simple average of a few fixed models that showed the good performance in track prediction for the past few years. Meanwhile, the consensus in this study is a weighted average of a few models that may change for every individual forecast time. The models are selected as follows. The first step is to find the analogous past tropical cyclone tracks to the current track. The next step is to evaluate the model performances for those past tracks. Finally, we take the weighted average of the selected models. More weight is given to the higher performance model. This new algorithm has been named as DYTRAP (DYnamic data-base Typhoon tRAck Prediction) in the sense that the data base is used to find the analogous past tracks and the effective models for every individual track prediction case. DYTRAP has been applied to all 2009 tropical cyclone track prediction. The results outperforms those of all models as well as all the official forecasts of the typhoon centers. In order to prove the real usefulness of DYTRAP, it is necessary to apply the DYTRAP system to the real time prediction because the forecast in typhoon centers usually uses 6-hour or 12-hour-old model guidances.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제21권2호
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• pp.263-266
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• 2012

To compare the effects of two external forcing on track of typhoon, TWRF(Typhoon WRF) based ensemble experiments are carried out in the case of Typhoon Morako which is the 8th typhoon at Northwest Pacific region in 2009. The two forcing are tropical SST and topography induced thermal and mechanical forcing, respectively. According to the result of numerical experiment for five-day forecast, the effect of mechanical forcing is about two times stronger than thermal forcing on the track error of the typhoon. More case study for other typhoon will be done as a next paper.

• 대한원격탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한원격탐사학회 1999년도 Proceedings of International Symposium on Remote Sensing
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• pp.127-131
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• 1999

Typhoons were known by contributing to transporting plus heat or kinetic energy from equatorial region to midlatitude region. Due to the strong damage from typhoon, we acknowledged the theoretical study and the importance of accurate forecast about typhoon. In this study, typhoon forecasting system was developed to search the tracks of past typhoons or to display similar track of past typhoon in comparison with the path of current forecasting typhoon. It was programmed using Interactive Data Language(IDL), which was a complete computing environment for the interactive analysis and visualization of data. Typhoon forecasting system was also included satellite image and auxiliary chart. IR, Water Vapor, Visible satellite images helped users analyze an accurate forecast of typhoon. They were further refined the procedures for generating water vapor winds and gave an initial indication of their utility for numerical weather prediction(NWP), in particular for typhoon track forecasting where they could provide important information. They were also available for its utility in typhoon tracer or intensity.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제12권2호
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• pp.295-304
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• 2005

This paper concentrates on the prediction of typhoon tracks using the dynamic linear model (DLM) for the statistical correction of the numerical model guidance used in the JMA. The DLM with proposed forecast strategy is applied to reduce their systematic errors using the latest observation. All parameters of the DLM are updated dynamically and backward forecasting is performed to remove the effect of initial values.

• 대기
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• 제26권1호
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• pp.1-18
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• 2016

Eleven Tropical Cyclone (TC) intensity guidance models in the western North Pacific have been validated over 2008~2014 based on various analysis methods according to the lead time of forecast, year, month, intensity, rapid intensity change, track, and geographical area with an additional focus on TCs that influenced the Korean peninsula. From the evaluation using mean absolute error and correlation coefficients for maximum wind speed forecasts up to 72 h, we found that the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model (HWRF) outperforms all others overall although the Global Forecast System (GFS), the Typhoon Ensemble Prediction System of Japan Meteorological Agency (TEPS), and the Korean version of Weather and Weather Research and Forecasting model (KWRF) also shows a good performance in some lead times of forecast. In particular, HWRF shows the highest performance in predicting the intensity of strong TCs above Category 3, which may be attributed to its highest spatial resolution (~3 km). The Navy Operational Global Prediction Model (NOGAPS) and GFS were the most improved model during 2008~2014. For initial intensity error, two Japanese models, Japan Meteorological Agency Global Spectral Model (JGSM) and TEPS, had the smallest error. In track forecast, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and recent GFS model outperformed others. The present results has significant implications for providing basic information for operational forecasters as well as developing ensemble or consensus prediction systems.