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Korean Meteorological Society (한국기상학회)
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Evaluation of the Numerical Models' Typhoon Track Predictability Based on the Moving Speed and Direction

이동속도와 방향을 고려한 수치모델의 태풍진로 예측성 평가

  • 신현진 (기상청 관측기반국 국가태풍센터) ;
  • 이우정 (기상청 관측기반국 국가태풍센터) ;
  • 강기룡 (기상청 관측기반국 국가태풍센터) ;
  • 변건영 (기상청 관측기반국 국가태풍센터) ;
  • 윤원태 (기상청 관측기반국 국가태풍센터)
  • Received : 2014.09.02
  • Accepted : 2014.10.29
  • Published : 2014.12.31
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Abstract

Evaluation of predictability of numerical models for tropical cyclone track was performed using along-and cross-track component. The along-and cross-track bias were useful indicators that show the numerical models predictability associated with cause of errors. Since forecast errors, standard deviation and consistency index of along-track component were greater than those of cross-track component, there was some rooms for improvement in alongtrack component. There was an overall slow bias. The most accurate model was JGSM for 24-hour forecast and ECMWF for 48~96-hour forecast in direct position error, along-track error and cross-track error. ECMWF and GFS had a high variability for 24-hour forecast. The results of predictability by track type showed that most significant errors of tropical cyclone track forecast were caused by the failure to estimate the recurvature phenomenon.

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References

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