• Atmosphere
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.1-18
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• 2015

The most objective way to overcome the limitation of numerical weather prediction model is to represent the uncertainty of prediction by introducing probabilistic forecast. The uncertainty of the numerical weather prediction system developed due to the parameterization of unresolved scale motions and the energy losses from the sub-scale physical processes. In this study, we focused on the growth of model errors. We performed ensemble forecast to represent model uncertainty. By employing the multi-physics scheme (PHYS) and the stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme (SKEBS) in simulating typhoon Rusa (2002), we assessed the performance level of the two schemes. The both schemes produced better results than the control run did in the ensemble mean forecast of the track. The results using PHYS improved by 28% and those based on SKEBS did by 7%. Both of the ensemble mean errors of the both schemes increased rapidly at the forecast time 84 hrs. The both ensemble spreads increased gradually during integration. The results based on SKEBS represented model errors very well during the forecast time of 96 hrs. After the period, it produced an under-dispersive pattern. The simulation based on PHYS overestimated the ensemble mean error during integration and represented the real situation well at the forecast time of 120 hrs. The displacement speed of the typhoon based on PHYS was closest to the best track, especially after landfall. In the sensitivity tests of the model uncertainty of SKEBS, ensemble mean forecast was sensitive to the physics parameterization. By adjusting the forcing parameter of SKEBS, the default experiment improved in the ensemble spread, ensemble mean errors, and moving speed.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.498-504
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• 2013

Recently, the frequency of typhoons have increased due to the effects of climate change. As a result, in mountain streams, it has caused streamflow increase upstream and frequent water surface elevation downstream. This study analyzed the effects of the heavy rainfalls caused by Typhoon Sanba, which had a direct impact on Korea between September 17 and 18, on the water level variations downstream in mountainous streams. In addition, the drainage basin of Samcheok Oship stream was chosen as the object of this study. This study analyzed the flood level by applying HEC-RAS model. The observed water level measured in 2012 and the water level simulated by HEC-RAS model showed similar results. In addition, the simulation results showed the maximum flood level was 5.32m the mean flow velocity was 2.33m/sec and the maximum channel water depth was 7.51m. The analysis showed that the heavy rainfalls caused by Typhoon Sanba had an impact on the water surface elevation in Oship stream. The final results from this study will give a reasonable and important data to perform the Design of Hydraulic Structure.

• Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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• v.36 no.6
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• pp.380-389
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• 2022

In the Haeundae area of Busan, South Korea, damage has continued to occur recently from building wind from caused by dense skyscrapers. Five wind observation stations were installed near LCT residential towers in Haeundae to analyze the effect of building winds during typhoon Omais. The impact of building wind was analyzed through relative and absolute evaluations. At an intersection located southeast of LCT (L-2), the strongest wind speed was measured during the monitoring. The maximum average wind speed for one minute was observed to be 38.93 m/s, which is about three times stronger than at an ocean observation buoy (12.7 m/s) at the same time. It is expected that 3 to 4 times stronger wind can be induced under certain conditions compared to the surrounding areas due to the building wind effect. In a Beaufort wind scale analysis, the wind speed at an ocean observatory was mostly distributed at Beaufort number 4, and the maximum was 8. At L-2, more than 50% of the wind speed exceeded Beaufort number 4, and numbers up to 12 were observed. However, since actual measurement has a limitation in analyzing the entire range, cross-validation with computational fluid dynamics simulation data is required to understand the characteristics of building winds.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry, and Cartography Conference
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• 2003.10a
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• pp.297-302
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• 2003

Recently, Flood hazard has been increased frequently in urban area by rainfall and Typhoon. To manage flood hazard effectively, it needs to construction of flood information management system. Especially, run-off by flood in urban area must be considered not only surface outflow by topographic gradient and elevation but also conduits outflow along conduit network. This paper suggests the flood hazard management system for analyzing flood outflow in urban area using conduits outflow simulation by ILLUDAS model and providing quickly flood hazard information using WebGIS and MobileGIS.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Navigation
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.49-65
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• 1991

It is of great importance for any vessel under way, especially in rough sea, to be maneuvered safely with proper seakeeping performance. In this paper, the author aims to develope a navigational safety evaluation system in rough sea by analyzing ship's with the theory of wave spectrum using random process analysis and the theory of evaluating the seakeeping performance. The scope and the method of this study are as follows ; (1) Modelized typhoon mathematically to represent the sea condition in rough sea. (2) Estimated sea conditions by getting wave spectrum, supposing that the wave by typhoon is fully developed short crest irregular wave. (3) Defined evaluation factor of vessel's seakeeping performance and obtained response amplitude operators thereby. (4) Obtained the response spectrum of factors on seakeeping performance. (5) Defined and obtained evaluation index, dangerousness, relative and maximum dangerousness of factors on seakeeping performance. (6) Analyzed the calculated dangerousness of evaluation index and picked the vertical acceleration out of 7 factors as the presentative factor on seakeeping performance. (7) Carrid out the judgement of danger by obtaining dangerousness value according to steaming hour, course alteration and speed change. By synthesizing the above items, the authors suggests a computer model of navigational safety evaluation system and examined the validity of the model by computer simulation.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.6 no.3
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• pp.179-196
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• 2003

A long suspension bridge is often located within a unique wind environment, and strong winds at the site seldom attack the bridge at a right angle to its long axis. This paper thus investigates the buffeting response of long suspension bridges to skew winds. The conventional buffeting analysis in the frequency domain is first improved to take into account skew winds based on the quasi-steady theory and the oblique strip theory in conjunction with the finite element method and the pseudo-excitation method. The aerodynamic coefficients and flutter derivatives of the Tsing Ma suspension bridge deck under skew winds, which are required in the improved buffeting analysis, are then measured in a wind tunnel using specially designed test rigs. The field measurement data, which were recorded during Typhoon Sam in 1999 by the Wind And Structural Health Monitoring System (WASHMS) installed on the Tsing Ma Bridge, are analyzed to obtain both wind characteristics and buffeting responses. Finally, the field measured buffeting responses of the Tsing Ma Bridge are compared with those from the computer simulation using the improved method and the aerodynamic coefficients and flutter derivatives measured under skew winds. The comparison is found satisfactory in general.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.292-301
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• 2012

The rise in sea surface temperature (SST) as a global warming enhance overall typhoon activity. We assumed that there exist thermodynamic limits to intensity that apply in the absence of significant interaction between storms and their environment. The limit calculations depend on SST and atmospheric profiles of temperature and moisture. This approach do appear to provide resonable upper bounds on the intensities of observed storms and may even be useful for predicting the change in intensity over a long period time. The maximum storm intensities was estimated through the global warming scenarios from IPCC-AR4 report over the North-East Asia. The result shows stronger intensities according to scenarios for increase of carbon dioxide levels. And storm surge simulations was performed with the typhoons which were combined route of the typhoon Maemi (2003) and intensity as climate change scenarios. The maximum increase of storm surge heights was shown about 29~110 cm (36~65%) regionally. Especially at Masan, the result of simulated maximum surge height exceed the 200 years return period surge.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.31 no.6
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• pp.479-484
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• 2007

For calculation of wave field for design of coastal and port structures, generally the wind fields from inland observation record or the predicted waves from deep water wave transformation model are being used. However, for the first case, as we should revise the wave data adopting correcting parameters depending on the distance from the coast and location, it is difficult to extract water waves from wind field. Furthermore, for the second case, because of the calculation which executed under very large grid sizes in the wide domain, the simulation(wave transformation) implied uncertainty in the near shore area and shallow region. So it's difficult to obtain exact data from the simulation. Thus, in this study the calculation of wave field on shallow water is accomplished using the observed data of typhoon 'Maemi' in the Korea Eastern South sea. Moreover, for the accuracy of the calculated wave field, we compared and studied the observed data of wave height and direction on the vicinity of the Ulsan waters. It is proved that the results of this study is more accurate than the existing method with showing ${\pm}1.3%$ difference between observed and calculated wave height distribution in Ulsan waters

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.31 no.2
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• pp.50-61
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• 2019

The aspects of typhoon-induced surges were classified into three types at the Western coast, and their characteristics were examined. The typhoons OLGA (9907) and KOMPASU (1007) were the representative steep types. As they pass close to the coasts with fast translation velocity, the time of maximum surge is unrelated to tidal phase. However, typhoons PRAPIROON (0012) and BOLAVEN (1215) were the representative mild types, which pass at a long distance to the coasts with slow translation velocity, and were characterized by having maximum surge time is near low tide. Meanwhile, typhoons MUIFA (1109) and WINNIE (9713) can be classified into mild types, but they do not show the characteristics of the mild type. Thus they are classified into propagative type, which are propagated from the outside. Analyzing the annual highest high water level data, the highest water level ever had been recorded when the WINNIE (9713) had attacked. At that time, severe astronomical tide condition overlapped modest surge. Therefore, if severe astronomical tide encounter severe surge in the future, tremendous water level may be formed with very small probability. However, considering that most of the huge typhoons are mild type, time of maximum surge tends to occur at low tide. In case of estimating the extreme water level by a numerical simulation, it is necessary not only to apply various tide conditions and accompanying tide-modulated surge, but also to scrutinize typhoon parameters such as translation velocity and so on.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.37 no.3
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• pp.241-248
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• 2004

In order to reduce flood damage, it is necessary to build up comprehensive flood control, including structural and non-structural countermeasures. In this paper, the decision making factors of individual refuge activities which are major non-structural activities to save peoples, lives against flood have been estimated based on questionnaire survey. Furthermore, in order to effective flood countermeasures, the refuge place and its distance are analyzed by questionnaire survey in the flooded area caused by typhoon RUSA and MEAMI. The refuge running time was assessed by its simulation. As a result of the simulation, it was found that the refuge running time is effected by refuge distance and the family numbers for refuge.