• 산경연구논집
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• 제9권10호
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• pp.83-89
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• 2018

Purpose - The purpose of this study examines when the optimism impact on financial asset price forecasting and the boundary condition of optimism in the financial asset price forecasting. People generally tend to optimistically forecast their future. Optimism is a nature of human beings and optimistic forecasting observed in daily life. But is it always observed in financial asset price forecasting? In this study, two factors were focused on considering whether the optimism that people have applied to predicting future performance of financial investment products (e.g., mutual fund). First, this study examined whether the degree of optimism varied depending on the direction of the prior price trend. Second, this study examined whether the degree of optimism varied according to the forecast period by dividing the future forecasted by people into three time horizon based on forecast period. Research design, data, and methodology - 2 (prior price trend: rising-up trend vs falling-down trend) × 3 (forecast time horizon: short term vs medium term vs long term) experimental design was used. Prior price trend was used between subject and forecast time horizon was used within subject design. 169 undergraduate students participated in the experiment. χ² analysis was used. In this study, prior price trend divided into two types: rising-up trend versus falling-down trend. Forecast time horizon divided into three types: short term (after one month), medium term (after one year), and long term (after five years). Results - Optimistic price forecasting and boundary condition was found. Participants who were exposed to falling-down trend did not make optimistic predictions in the short term, but over time they tended to be more optimistic about the future in the medium term and long term. However, participants who were exposed to rising-up trend were over-optimistic in the short term, but over time, less optimistic in the medium and long term. Optimistic price forecasting was found when participants forecasted in the long term. Exposure to prior price trends (rising-up trend vs falling-down trend) was a boundary condition of optimistic price forecasting. Conclusions - The results indicated that individuals were more likely to be impacted by prior price tends in the short term time horizon, while being optimistic in the long term time horizon.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제29권1호
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• pp.41-51
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• 2022

We forecast the US oil consumption level taking advantage of google trends. The google trends are the search volumes of the specific search terms that people search on google. We focus on whether proper selection of google trend terms leads to an improvement in forecast performance for oil consumption. As the forecast models, we consider the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and the structured regularization method for large vector autoregressive (VAR-L) model of Nicholson et al. (2017), which select automatically the google trend terms and the lags of the predictors. An out-of-sample forecast comparison reveals that reducing the high dimensional google trend data set to a low-dimensional data set by the LASSO and the VAR-L models produces better forecast performance for oil consumption compared to the frequently-used forecast models such as the autoregressive model, the autoregressive distributed lag model and the vector error correction model.

• 대기
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• 제24권3호
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• pp.419-432
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• 2014

An assessment of typhoon intensity predictability of numerical models was conducted to develop the typhoon intensity forecast guidance comparing with the RSMC-Tokyo best track data. Root mean square error, box plot analysis and time series of wind speed comparison were performed to evaluate the each model error level. One of noticeable fact is that all models have a trend of error increase as typhoon becomes stronger and the Global Forecast System showed the best performance among the models. In the detailed analysis in two typhoon cases [Danas (1324) and Haiyan (1330)], GFS showed good performance in maximum wind speed and intensity trend in the best track, however it could not simulate well the rapid intensity increasing period. On the other hand, ECMWF and Hurricane-WRF overestimated the typhoon intensity but simulated track trend well.

• 한국항공운항학회지
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• 제21권1호
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• pp.68-73
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• 2013

This study is to make a protype of forecast guidance for forecasters from analyzing the characteristics of Korea Fog. The trend of Korea fog showed the decline in the number of foggy days and the duration time, the gradient is -1.24days/year under 3 miles and -0.98days/year under 1 mile and -1.64hours/year under 3 miles and -3.18hours/year under 1 mile in duration time in 27 ROKAF base. To find the protype of inland and coastal forecast guidance, Daegu base as a representation of the inland base and Gangneung base as the representation of the coastal base were chosen. For Daegu base, the mixture of relative humidity, sky condition, and the position of high pressure were selected for the forecast guidance. For Gangneung base, pressure pattern, sea surface temperature, sea currents, and 850hPa temperature patterns were selected for the forecast guidance.

• 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
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• 제39권4호
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• pp.41-54
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• 2019

The proportion of solar photovoltaic power generation has steadily increased in the power trade market. Solar energy forecast is highly important for the stable trade of volatile solar energy in the existing power trade market, and it is necessary to identify accurately any forecast error according to the forecast lead time. This paper analyzes the latest study trend in solar energy forecast overseas and presents a consistent comparative assessment by adopting a single statistical variable (nRMSE) for forecast errors according to lead time and forecast technology.

• 한국대기환경학회지
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• 제22권6호
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• pp.851-862
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• 2006

Satellites have been valuable tool for global/regional scale atmospheric environment monitoring as well as emission source detection. In this study, we present the results of application of satellite remote sensing data for air quality forecast in Seoul metropolitan area. AOT (Aerosol Optical Thickness) data from TERRA/MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectre-radiometer) satellite were compared to ground based $PM_{10}$ mass concentrations, and used to estimate the possibility of the aerosol forecasting in Seoul metropolitan area. Although correlation coefficient (${\sim}0.37$) between MODIS AOT products and surface $PM_{10}$ concentration data was relatively low, there was good correlation between MODIS AOT and surface PM concentration under certain atmospheric conditions, which supports the feasibility of using the high-resolution MODIS AOT for air quality forecasting. The MODIS AOT data with trajectory forecasts also can provide information on aerosol concentration trend. The success rate of the 24 hour aerosol concentration trend forecast result was about 75% in this study. Finally, application of satellite remote sensing data with ground-based air quality observations could provide promising results for air quality monitoring and more exact trend forecast methodology by high resolution satellite data and verification with long term measurement dataset.

• 한국재료학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국재료학회 2008년도 추계학술발표대회 및 제15회 신소재 심포지엄
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• pp.4.1-4.1
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• 2008

• 월간포장계
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• 통권333호
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• pp.92-96
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• 2021

• 대기
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• 제24권2호
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• pp.159-171
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• 2014

This study investigated the temporal and spatial characteristics of summertime (June-August) precipitation over Korean peninsula, using Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA)is Automated Synoptic Observing System (ASOS) data for the period of 1973-2010 and Automatic Weather System (AWS) data for the period of 1998-2010.The authors looked through climatological features of the summertime precipitation, then examined the degree of locality of the precipitation, and probable precipitation amount and its return period of 100 years (i.e., an extreme precipitation event). The amount of monthly total precipitation showed increasing trends for all the summer months during the investigated 38-year period. In particular, the increasing trends were more significant for the months of July and August. The increasing trend of July was seen to be more attributable to the increase of precipitation intensity than that of frequency, while the increasing trend of August was seen to be played more importantly by the increase of the precipitation frequency. The e-folding distance, which is calculated using the correlation of the precipitation at the reference station with those at all other stations, revealed that it is August that has the highest locality of hourly precipitation, indicating higher potential of localized heavy rainfall in August compared to other summer months. More localized precipitation was observed over the western parts of the Korean peninsula where terrain is relatively smooth. Using the 38-years long series of maximum daily and hourly precipitation as input for FARD2006 (Frequency Analysis of Rainfall Data Program 2006), it was revealed that precipitation events with either 360 mm $day^{-1}$ or 80 mm $h^{-1}$ can occur with the return period of 100 years over the Korean Peninsula.

• 한국지능시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국퍼지및지능시스템학회 2003년도 ISIS 2003
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• pp.338-341
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• 2003

Recently, the chaotic method is employed to forecast a near future of uncertain phenomena. This method makes it possible by restructuring an attractor of given time-series data in multi-dimensional space through Takens' embedding theory. However, many economical time-series data are not sufficiently chaotic. In other words, it is hard to forecast the future trend of such economical data on the basis of chaotic theory. In this paper, time-series data are divided into wave components using wavelet transform. It is shown that some divided components of time-series data show much more chaotic in the sense of correlation dimension than the original time-series data. The highly chaotic nature of the divided component enables us to precisely forecast the value or the movement of the time-series data in near future. The up and down movement of TOPICS value is shown so highly predicted by this method as 70％.