• Title/Summary/Keyword: travel demand model

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A Green House Gas Emission Estimation Based on Gravity Model and Its Elasticity (중력모형을 이용한 온실가스 배출량추정 및 탄력성분석)

  • Im, Yong-Taek
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.85-93
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    • 2011
  • Many policies, such as transit-oriented development, encouraged use of bicycle and pedestrian, reduction of green house gas (GHG) and etc., have been deployed to support transport sustainability. Although various studies regarding GHG were presented, no one has yet adequately explained the behavior of travelers. This paper proposes a GHG emission model by highlighting its sensitivity, elasticity with regard to such travel cost as travel time, travel fare, and GHG pricing, introduced to reduce the amount of GHG in transportation system. For better estimation of GHG, the proposed model adopts (1) a production-constrained gravity model and (2) the travel distance from the origin and the destination (OD). The gravity model has a merit that it considers travel pattern between OD pairs. The model was tested with an example, and the promising results confirmed its validation and applications.

Development of a Model for Dynamic Station Assignmentto Optimize Demand Responsive Transit Operation (수요대응형 모빌리티 최적 운영을 위한 동적정류장 배정 모형 개발)

  • Kim, Jinju;Bang, Soohyuk
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.17-34
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    • 2022
  • This paper develops a model for dynamic station assignment to optimize the Demand Responsive Transit (DRT) operation. In the process of optimization, we use the bus travel time as a variable for DRT management. In addition, walking time, waiting time, and delay due to detour to take other passengers (detour time) are added as optimization variables and entered for each DRT passenger. Based on a network around Anaheim, California, reserved origins and destinations of passengers are assigned to each demand responsive bus, using K-means clustering. We create a model for selecting the dynamic station and bus route and use Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-III to analyze seven scenarios composed combination of the variables. The result of the study concluded that if the DRT operation is optimized for the DRT management, then the bus travel time and waiting time should be considered in the optimization. Moreover, it was concluded that the bus travel time, walking time, and detour time are required for the passenger.

A Study on Demand Information Distortion in Airline Industry Supply Chain (항공산업 공급체인의 수요정보 왜곡현상에 관한 연구)

  • 백승기;유성찬;박명섭
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 2003.11a
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    • pp.239-242
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    • 2003
  • The supply chain of the airline industry includes multiple airline companies, travel agencies and customers. Various air fares are offered by travel agencies. The travel agencies grant deposit to the airline company in advance and preoccupy seats with deep discount, which called group-discount-ticket. The group-discount-ticket offers the lowest air fare but it does not base on real demand. So the information flow generated by group-discount-ticket can cause the information distortion in airline supply chain. This study analyzes the bullwhip effect in the airline industry. A mathematical model is formulated and managerial suggestions is provided.

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Measuring Recreational Benefits of Chilgap Reservoir Using TCM (TCM을 이용한 칠갑저수지의 레크리에이션 편익 분석)

  • Hong, Seungjee;Kim, Dae-Sik
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.97-106
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    • 2016
  • The study attempts to estimate the recreational benefits of Chilgap multi-purpose reservoir using the on-site survey sample of 130 visitors. The individual travel cost method is used for measuring the recreational benefits of Chilgap multi-purpose reservoir and a zero-truncated negative binomial model is used to elicit the travel demand function. The price elasticities of visit demand are ranged from 0.29 to 0.39. Recreational benefits are ranged from 119 to 156 thousand won per visit and are ranged from 292 to 383 thousand won per annual. When the number of annual visitors to Chilgap reservoir is appled, then the recreational benefits are ranged from 2.7 to 3.6 billion won. This study could contribute to the advancement of post-construction evaluation in the public construction field similar to Chilgap reservoir.

Choice of Health Care and Traditional Medicine (양.한방의료 서비스 선택에 관한 연구)

  • 이원재
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.183-202
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    • 1998
  • This study is to investigate patient's choice of health care and the demand for Korean traditional medicine care in rural areas in 1995. It tried to evaluate the effect of out-of-pocket expenditure, travel time, and waiting time on improving care-seeking and substituting clinical medicine for pharmacy care and Korean traditional medicine care in rural areas. The statistical model of this study is conditional logit to estimate effects of choice-specific and individual-specific characteristics on the choice of type of services. This study used, as explanatory variables, average out-of-pocket payment, travel time, and waiting time of services required to use the services. The model was empirically tested using data from 1995 Korean National Health Survery. The results showed that rural Koreans responded to out-of pocket payment and travel time. Increases of out-of-pocket payment and travel time decreased the probability to choose care in rural Korea. Rural Koreans were more likely to seek care than others with low out-of-pocket payment and travel time. The probability of choosing Korean traditional medicine were higher among the members of the households with higher education level and older persons, while they were lower in the households with large family than others compared with the probabilities of choosing public health facilities. The result of this study implies that policy on use of health care in rural Korea can be focused in managing travel time and out-of-pocket payment.

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Development and Application of the Mode Choice Models According to Zone Sizes (분석대상 규모에 따른 수단분담모형의 추정과 적용에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Ju-Yeong;Lee, Seung-Jae;Kim, Do-Gyeong;Jeon, Jang-U
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.29 no.6
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    • pp.97-106
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    • 2011
  • Mode choice model is an essential element for estimating- the demand of new means of transportation in the planning stage as well as in the establishment phase. In general, current demand analysis model developed for the mode choice analysis applies common parameters of utility function in each region which causes inaccuracy in forecasting mode choice behavior. Several critical problems from using common parameters are: a common parameter set can not reflect different distribution of coefficient for travel time and travel cost by different population. Consequently, the resulting model fails to accurately explain policy variables such as travel time and travel cost. In particular, the nonlinear logit model applied to aggregation data is vulnerable to the aggregation error. The purpose of this paper is to consider the regional characteristics by adopting the parameters fitted to each area, so as to reduce prediction errors and enhance accuracy of the resulting mode choice model. In order to estimate parameter of each area, this study used Household Travel Survey Data of Metropolitan Transportation Authority. For the verification of the model, the value of time by marginal rate of substitution is evaluated and statistical test for resulting coefficients is also carried out. In order to crosscheck the applicability and reliability of the model, changes in mode choice are analyzed when Seoul subway line 9 is newly opened and the results are compared with those from the existing model developed without considering the regional characteristics.

A Network-Based Model for Estimating the Market Share of a High-Speed Rail System in the Korean NW-SE Corridor (네트워크 기반모델을 이용한 서울-부산간 고속철도 개통 후의 교통수단별 시장점유율 예측)

  • Gang-Len Chang
    • Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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    • 2003.02a
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    • pp.127-150
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    • 2003
  • This research presents a novel application of static traffic assignment methods, but with a variable time value, for estimating the market share of a high-speed rail (HSR) in the NW-SE corridor of Korea which is currently served by the airline (AR), conventional rail (CR), and highway (HWY) modes. The proposed model employs the time-space network structure to capture the interrelations among all competing transportation modes, and to reflect their supply- and demand-sides constraints as well as interactions through properly formulated link-node structures. The embedded cost function for each network link offers the flexibility for incorporating all associated factors, such as travel time and fare, in the model computation, and enables the use of a distribution rather than a constant to represent the time-value variation among all transportation mode users. To realistically capture the tripmakers' value-of-time (VOT) along the target area, a novel method for VOT calibration has been developed with aggregate demand information and key system performance data from the target area. Under the assumption that intercity tripmakers often have nearly "perfect" travel information, one can solve the market share of each mode after operations of HSR for each O-D pair under the time-dependent demand with state-of-the-art traffic assignment. Aside from estimating new market share, this paper also investigated the impacts of HSR on other existing transportation modes.

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Mobile Source Emissions Estimates for Intra-zonal Travel Using Space Syntax Analysis (공간 구문론을 이용한 존내 자동차 배출량 추정 모형)

  • LEE, Kyu Jin;CHOI, Keechoo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.107-122
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    • 2016
  • This study aims to develop a framework to estimate mobile source emissions with the macroscopic travel demand model including enhanced estimates of intra-zonal travel emissions using Space Syntax analysis. It is acknowledged that "the land-use and transportation interaction model explains the influence of urban structure on accessibility and mobility pattern". Based upon this theory, the estimation model of intra-zonal travel emissions is presented with the models of total travel distance, total travel demand, and average travel speed of intra-zonal trips. Thess statistical models include several spatial indices derived from the Space Syntax analysis. It explains that urban spatial structure is a critical factor for intra-zonal travel emissions, which is lower in compact zone with smaller portion of land area, lower sprawl indicator, and more grid-type of road network. Also the suggested framework is applied in the evaluation of the effectiveness of bicycle lane project in Suwon, Korea. The estimated emissions including intra-zonal travel is as double as the results only with inter-zonal demands, which shows better performance of the suggested framework for more realistic outcomes. This framework is applicable to the estimation of mobile source emissions in nation-wide and the assessment of transportation-environment policies in regional level.

Estimating the Economic Value of Recreation Sea Fishing in the Yellow Sea: An Application of Count Data Model (가산자료모형을 이용한 서해 태안군 유어객의 편익추정)

  • Choi, Jong Du
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.331-347
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this study is to estimate the economic value of the recreational sea fishing in the Yellow Sea using count data model. For estimating consumer surplus, we used several count data model of travel cost recreation demand such as a poisson model(PM), a negative binomial model(NBM), a truncated poisson model(TPM), and a truncated negative binomial model(TNBM). Model results show that there is no exist the over-dispersion problem and a NBM was statistically more suitable than the other models. All parameters estimated are statistically significant and theoretically valid. The NBM was applied to estimate the travel demand and consumer surplus. The consumer surplus pre trip was estimated to be 254,453won, total consumer surplus per person and per year 1,536,896won.

A Study on Improvement of Gravity model Decay Function of Transporting Demand Forecasting Considering Space Syntax (Space Syntax를 이용한 교통수요예측의 중력모형 저항함수의 개선방안)

  • Jang, Jin-Young
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.617-631
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    • 2019
  • In the four-step demand model, a gravity mode is used most commonly at the trip distribution stage. The purpose of this study was to develop a new friction factor that can express the accessibility property as a single friction factor to compensate for the variable limits of the gravity model parameters (travel time, travel cost). To derive a new friction factor, a new friction factor was derived using the space syntax that can quantify the characteristics of the urban space structure, deriving the link-unit integration degree and then using the travel time and travel distance relationship. Calibration of the derived friction factor resulted in a similar level to that of the existing friction factor. As a result of verifying the various indicators, the explanatory power was found to be excellent in the short - and long - distance range. Therefore, it is possible to derive and apply the new friction factor using the integration index, which can complement the accessibility beyond the limit of the existing shortest distance, and it is believed to be more advantageous in future utilization.