• Title/Summary/Keyword: time-series model

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Estimation of Potential Supply of Offset from Household Electric Appliances (가정용 전자기기의 잠재 상쇄 공급량 추정)

  • Jin, Hyun Joung;Kim, Jeong In;You, Eun Young;Park, Seo Hwa
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.463-488
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    • 2015
  • A more detailed design of offset system is needed according to the emission trading system started in 2015. This study aims to estimate the supply of potential offset that can be secured by expanding high-efficiency household electric appliances. The target commodities for analysis are three different householding electric appliances: TV, washing machine, electric fan, refrigerator and air conditioner. By using the ARDL model, we estimated the coefficients of diffusion of these high-efficiency appliances from 2016 to 2022. Then, the potential supply of offset was drawn by calculating the amount of electricity saving by efficiency improvement and by applying the rates of carbon exchange. Supposing that the electricity savings rates of high-efficiency appliances are each 10% and 20%, the accumulated carbon decrement in 2022 was respectively $361,899CO_2t$ and $723,797CO_2t$. The appliance that showed the biggest carbon decrement was air conditioner, and the second biggest was refrigerator and the next was TV, followed by washing machine, electric fan.

Current Status of Systems Biology in Traditional Chinese medicine - in regards to influences to Korean Medicine (최근 중의학에서 시스템생물학의 발전 현황 - 한의학에 미치는 영향 및 시사점을 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Seungeun;Lee, Sundong
    • Journal of Society of Preventive Korean Medicine
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2017
  • Objectives : This paper serves to explore current trends of systems biology in Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) and examine how it may influence the Traditional Korean medicine. Methods : Literature review method was collectively used to classify Introduction to systems biology, diagnosis and syndrome classification of systems biology in TCM perspective, physiotherapy including acupuncture, herbs and formula functions, TCM systems biology, and directions of academic development. Results : The term 'Systems biology' is coined as a combination of systems science and biology. It is a field of study that tries to understand living organism by establishing a theory based on an ideal model that analyzes and predicts the desired output with understanding of interrelationships and dynamics between variables. Systems biology has an integrated and multi-dimensional nature that observes the interaction among the elements constructing the network. The current state of systems biology in TCM is categorized into 4 parts: diagnosis and syndrome, physical therapy, herbs and formulas and academic development of TCM systems biology and its technology. Diagnosis and syndrome field is focusing on developing TCM into personalized medicine by clarifying Kidney yin deficiency patterns and metabolic differences among five patterns of diabetes and analyzing plasma metabolism and biomarkers of coronary heart disease patients. In the field of physical therapy such as acupuncture and moxibustion, researchers discovered the effect of stimulating acupoint ST40 on gene expression and the effects of acupuncture on treating functional dyspepsia and acute ischemic stroke. Herbs and formulas were analyzed with TCM network pharmacology. The therapeutic mechanisms of Si Wu Tang and its series formulas are explained by identifying potential active substances, targets and mechanism of action, including metabolic pathways of amino acid and fatty acid. For the academic development of TCM systems biology and its technology, it is necessary to integrate massive database, integrate pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics, as well as systems biology. It is also essential to establish a platform to maximize herbal treatment through accumulation of research data and diseases-specific, or drug-specific network combined with clinical experiences, and identify functions and roles of molecules in herbs and conduct animal-based studies within TCM frame. So far, few literature reviews exist for systems biology in traditional Korean medicine and they merely re-examine known efficacies of simple substances, herbs and formulas. For the future, it is necessary to identify specific mechanisms of working agents and targets to maximize the effects of traditional medicine modalities. Conclusions : Systems biology is widely accepted and studied in TCM and already advanced into a field known as 'TCM systems biology', which calls for the study of incorporating TCM and systems biology. It is time for traditional Korean medicine to acknowledge the importance of systems biology and present scientific basis of traditional medicine and establish the principles of diagnosis, prevention and treatment of diseases. By doing so, traditional Korean medicine would be innovated and further developed into a personalized medicine.

Prediction of Salinity Changes for Seawater Inflow and Rainfall Runoff in Yongwon Channel (해수유입과 강우유출 영향에 따른 용원수로의 염분도 변화 예측)

  • Choo, Min Ho;Kim, Young Do;Jeong, Weon Mu
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.47 no.3
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    • pp.297-306
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    • 2014
  • In this study, EFDC (Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code) model was used to simulate the salinity distribution for sea water inflow and rainfall runoff. The flowrate was given to the boundary conditions, which can be calculated by areal-specific flowrate method from the measured flowrate of the representative outfall. The boundary condition of the water elevation can be obtained from the hourly tidal elevation. The flowrate from the outfall can be calculated using the condition of the 245 mm raifall. The simulation results showed that at Sites 1~2 and the Mangsan island (Site 4) the salinity becomes 0 ppt after the rainfall. However, the salinity is 30 ppt when there is no rainfall. Time series of the salinity changes were compared with the measured data from January 1 to December 31, 2010 at the four sites (Site 2~5) of Yongwon channel. Lower salinities are shown at the inner sites of Yongwon channel (Site 1~4) and the sites of Songjeong river (Site 7~8). The intensive investigation near the Mangsan island showed that the changes of salinity were 21.9~28.8 ppt after the rainfall of 17 mm and those of the salinity were 2.33~8.05 ppt after the cumulative rainfall of 160.5 mm. This means that the sea water circulation is blocked in Yongwon channel, and the salinity becomes lower rapidly after the heavy rain.

Predicting Raw Material Price Fluctuation Using Signal Approach: Application to Non-ferrous Metals (신호접근법을 이용한 비철금속 상품가격변동 예측모형 연구)

  • Kim, Ji-Whan;Lee, Sang-Ho
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.42 no.2
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    • pp.143-152
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    • 2009
  • Recent raw material prices fluctuation has been unexpectedly high and that made Korean economic activities to be depressed. Because most raw material supply in Korea depends upon oversea imports, unexpected raw material price fluctuation affects Korean industrial economies through macroeconomic variables. So Korean government enforces some political measures such as demand management and the supply-security assurance as long-range policies, and reservation and general early warning system as short-range policies. In short-range policies, it is necessary to be expected short term fluctuation. Up to recently, there have been many researches and most of those researches use parametric methods or time series analyses. Because those methods and analyses often generate inadequate relations among variables, it is possible that some consistent variables are left out or the results are misunderstood. This study, therefore, is aim to mitigate those methodological problems and find the relatively appropriate model for economic explanation. So that, in this paper, by using non-parametric signal approach method mitigating some shortages of previous researches and forecasting properly short-range prices fluctuation of non-ferrous materials are presented empirically.

A Study on Designing Method of VoIP QoS Management Framework Model under NGN Infrastructure Environment (NGN 기반환경 에서의 VoIP QoS 관리체계 모델 설계)

  • Noh, Si-Choon;Bang, Kee-Chun
    • Journal of Digital Contents Society
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.85-94
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    • 2011
  • QoS(Quality of Service) is defined as "The collective effect of service performance which determines the degree of satisfaction of a user of the service" by ITU-T Rec. E.800. While the use of VoIP(Voice Over Internet Protocol) has been widely implemented, persistent problems with QoS are a very important sue which needs to be solved. This research is finding the assignment of VoIP QoS to deduct how to manage the control system and presenting the QoS control process and framework under NGN(Next Generation Network) environment. The trial framework is the modeling of the QoS measurement metrics, instrument, equipment, method of measurement, the series of cycle & the methodology about analysis of the result of measurement. This research underlines that the vulnerability of the VoIP protocol in relation to its QoS can be guaranteed when the product quality and management are controlled and measured systematically. Especially it's very important time to maintain the research about VoIP QoS measurement and control because the big conversion of new network technology paradigm is now spreading. In addition, when the proposed method is applied, it can reduce an overall delay and can contribute to improved service quality, in relation to signal, voice processing, filtering more effectively.

Effects of Maternal Role Education Program on the Mother-Infant Interaction and Infant Development (영아기 어머니역할 교육 프로그램이 모아상호작용과 영아발달에 미치는 효과)

  • Bang Kyung Sook
    • Child Health Nursing Research
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.21-34
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    • 2001
  • The impact of childhood experience has lifelong significance on subsequent health and development. Especially, the experience of infant is mostly affected by the quality of parental care and rearing environment. But the new mothers usually do not know what to do because of the lack of experience in these days. Therefore, an educational program regarding maternal role would be necessary. This study was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of the maternal role education program for mother-infant interaction, child-rearing environment, and infant development. Non-equivalent control group time-series design was used, and Barnard's mother-infant interaction model was used as a conceptual framework of this study. The subjects were the healthy infants weighing over 2,500gm at birth, whose gestational age was more than 37 weeks, and their mothers. The final sample consisted of 19 mother-infant dyads for intervention group and 18 dyads for control group. Data were collected from March 15th to September 3rd in 1999. For the intervention group, programmed education which focused on mother-infant interaction, breast feeding, and infant care was provided before discharge. Telephone counselling was provided within one week after discharge. Home visiting for maternal role education was provided twice, one month and three months postpartum. For the control group, home visiting was also conducted but only for data collection. The data were analyzed using chi-square test and t-test to test the equivalence of two groups, and the effectiveness of intervention program was determined with repeated measure ANCOVA and t-test. The results were as follows: 1. Significant differences were found in mother-infant interaction between two groups(p=.000). It indicates that intervention program was effective in improving mother- infant interaction. In subscale analysis, four out of six subscale showed significant differences between the groups: sensitivity to cues (p=.000), social-emotional growth fostering (p=.000), cognitive growth fostering(p=.000) in mothers, and responsiveness to caregiver (p=.019) in infants. 2. The difference in the mean score of childrearing environment (HOME) between the intervention group and control group was significant(p=.003). When each subscale of HOME was examined individually, intervention group showed significantly higher scores in the diversity of stimulation(p=.000), and mother's involvement(p=.001). 3. Three-month-Infants of the intervention group showed higher GQ in the Griffiths mental development scale(p=.026). In subscale analysis, significant differences were found in the personal-social(p=.005), and the hearing and speech(p=.003). In conclusion, the maternal role education program proved to be effective in promoting the mother-infant interaction, organizing the childrearing environment, and fostering the infant development. These results are very meaningful that we found maternal role education necessary for normal infants' mothers, and that nurses can make a great contribution in promoting health of infants and mothers.

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CM Prospects and Strategies Based on Contract Statistics : 1997 through 2014 (CM산업 수주실적 분석을 통한 CM기업의 발전 방안 - 1997년 ~ 2014년 실적자료 기반 -)

  • Ha, Jiwon;Jung, Youngsoo
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.97-107
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    • 2016
  • CM services have been focused on the advancement of the CM industry and expansion to overseas market based on CM capabilities. However, there has been lack of quantitative and comprehensive research to investigate current CM trends and prospects for improving competitiveness. In this sense, the purpose of this study is to statistically analyze total of 3,453 CM service contracts over the past 18 years (between 1997 and 2014) in term of market type, contract size, owner's type, commodity type. Finding of this research reveal that 1) compared to 2005, CM market size in 2015 increased as much as 2.5 times, and that 2) domestic CM projects count for 87.5%, architectural project 88.4%, less than 1 billion won small contracts 75%, respectively. Also, recently as CM company are developing capability and competitiveness, 1) overseas CM market share has grown up to 20% among total CM contract amount, and 2) CM contracts by private owners has increased 3 times demanding the total management services based on high technical capability. Additionally, the result of this paper supports the growth path model proposed by Jung et al. (2014), where a path from Domestic Public (DP3) and Domestic Private (DC2) CM projects towards the expansion to International Private (IC5) contracts was quantitatively analyzed. Implications for other practical issues are also briefly discussed.

Topographic and Meteorological Characteristics of Pinus densiflora Dieback Areas in Sogwang-Ri, Uljin (울진 소광리 산림유전자원보호구역 내 금강소나무 고사지역의 지형 환경 특성 분석)

  • Kim, Jaebeom;Kim, Eun-Sook;Lim, Jong-Hwan
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.10-18
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    • 2017
  • Korean Red Pine (Pinus densiflora) has been protected and used as the most ecologically and socio-culturally important tree species in Korea. However, as dieback of Korean red pines has occurred in the protected area of the forest genetic resources. The aims of this study is to identify causes for dieback of pine tree by investigating topographical characteristics of pine tree dieback and its correlation to meteorological factors. We extracted the dead trees from the time series aerial images and analyzed geomorphological characteristics of dead tree concentration area. As a result, 1,956 dead pine trees were extracted in the study region of 2,600 ha. Dieback of pine trees was found mostly in the areas with high altitude, high solar radiation, low topographic wetness index, south and south-west slopes, ridgelines, and high wind exposure compared to other living pine forest area. These areas are classified as high temperature and high drought stress regions due to micro-climatic characteristics affected by topographic factors. As high temperature and drought stress are generally increasing with climate change, we can evaluated that a risk of pine tree dieback is also increasing. Based on these geomorphological characteristics, we developed a pine tree dieback risk map using Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt), and it can be useful for establishing Korean red pine protection and management strategies.

A point-scale gap filling of the flux-tower data using the artificial neural network (인공신경망 기법을 이용한 청미천 유역 Flux tower 결측치 보정)

  • Jeon, Hyunho;Baik, Jongjin;Lee, Seulchan;Choi, Minha
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.11
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    • pp.929-938
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    • 2020
  • In this study, we estimated missing evapotranspiration (ET) data at a eddy-covariance flux tower in the Cheongmicheon farmland site using the Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The ANN showed excellent performance in numerical analysis and is expanding in various fields. To evaluate the performance the ANN-based gap-filling, ET was calculated using the existing gap-filling methods of Mean Diagnostic Variation (MDV) and Food and Aggregation Organization Penman-Monteith (FAO-PM). Then ET was evaluated by time series method and statistical analysis (coefficient of determination, index of agreement (IOA), root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). For the validation of each gap-filling model, we used 30 minutes of data in 2015. Of the 121 missing values, the ANN method showed the best performance by supplementing 70, 53 and 84 missing values, respectively, in the order of MDV, FAO-PM, and ANN methods. Analysis of the coefficient of determination (MDV, FAO-PM, and ANN methods followed by 0.673, 0.784, and 0.841, respectively.) and the IOA (The MDV, FAO-PM, and ANN methods followed by 0.899, 0.890, and 0.951 respectively.) indicated that, all three methods were highly correlated and considered to be fully utilized, and among them, ANN models showed the highest performance and suitability. Based on this study, it could be used more appropriately in the study of gap-filling method of flux tower data using machine learning method.

A Comparative Study on Degradation of BTEX Vapor by O3/UV, TiO2/UV, and O3/TiO2/UV System with Operating Conditions (운전조건에 따른 O3/UV, TiO2/UV 및 O3/TiO2/UV 시스템의 BTEX 증기처리에 관한 비교 연구)

  • Kim, Kyoung-Jin;Park, Ok-Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.91-99
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    • 2008
  • A multilayer tower-type photoreactor, in which $TiO_2$-coated glass-tubes were installed, was used to measure the vapor-phase BTEX removal efficiencies by ozone oxidation ($O_3$/UV), photocatalytic oxidation ($TiO_2$/UV) and the combination of ozone and photocatalytic oxidation ($O_3/TiO_2$/UV) process, respectively. The experiments were conducted under various relative humidities, temperatures, ozone concentrations, gas flow rates and BTEX concentrations. As a result, the BTEX removal efficiency and the oxidation rate by $O_3/TiO_2$/UV system were highest, compared to $O_3$/UV and $TiO_2$/UV system. The $O_3/TiO_2$/UV system accelerated the low oxidation rate of low-concentration organic compounds and removed organic compounds to a large extent in a fixed volume of reactor in a short time. Therefore, $O_3/TiO_2$/UV system as a superimposed oxidation technology was developed to efficiently and economically treat refractory VOCs. Also, this study demonstrated feasibility of a technology to scale up a photoreactor from lab-scale to pilot-scale, which uses (i) a separated light-source chamber and a light distribution system, (ii) catalyst fixing to glass-tube media, and (iii) unit connection in series and/or parallel. The experimental results from $O_3/TiO_2$/UV system showed that (i) the highest BTEX removal efficiencies were obtained under relative humidity ranging from 50 to 55% and temperature ranging from 40 to $50^{\circ}C$, and (ii) the removal efficiencies linearly increased with ozone dosage and decreased with gas flow rate. When applying Langmuir-Hinshelwood model to $TiO_2$/UV and $O_3/TiO_2$/UV system, reaction rate constant for $O_3/TiO_2$/UV system was larger than that for $TiO_2$/UV system, however, it was found that adsorption constant for $O_3/TiO_2$/UV system was smaller than that for $TiO_2$/UV system due to competitive adsorption between organics and ozone.