• Title/Summary/Keyword: time to failure

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Rainfall Forecasting Using Satellite Information and Integrated Flood Runoff and Inundation Analysis (I): Theory and Development of Model (위성정보에 의한 강우예측과 홍수유출 및 범람 연계 해석 (I): 이론 및 모형의 개발)

  • Choi, Hyuk Joon;Han, Kun Yeun;Kim, Gwangseob
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.6B
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    • pp.597-603
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    • 2006
  • The purpose of this study is to improve the short term rainfall forecast skill using neural network model that can deal with the non-linear behavior between satellite data and ground observation, and minimize the flood damage. To overcome the geographical limitation of Korean peninsula and get the long forecast lead time of 3 to 6 hour, the developed rainfall forecast model took satellite imageries and wide range AWS data. The architecture of neural network model is a multi-layer neural network which consists of one input layer, one hidden layer, and one output layer. Neural network is trained using a momentum back propagation algorithm. Flood was estimated using rainfall forecasts. We developed a dynamic flood inundation model which is associated with 1-dimensional flood routing model. Therefore the model can forecast flood aspect in a protected lowland by levee failure of river. In the case of multiple levee breaks at main stream and tributaries, the developed flood inundation model can estimate flood level in a river and inundation level and area in a protected lowland simultaneously.

Discussion on the Strategic Priorities and Navy's Coping in the Interwar Period Britain, 1919?1939 (「전간기 영국의 전략 우선순위 논의와 영국해군의 대응, 1919-1939」)

  • Jeon, Yoon-Jae
    • Strategy21
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    • s.32
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    • pp.123-159
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this research paper is to re-valuate the factors that affected the Royal Navy's rearmament and preparation for war by conducting analysis on the discussion held in the Britain on the strategic priorities and Navy's coping measures adopted during the interwar period. After the end of the WWI, each of the military arms of the Britain faced significant difficulty in securing budget and increasing their military power all throughout the interwar period, and the Navy was not an exception. The WWII that got started on September 1939 was the turning point in which this difficulty led to full-fledged crisis. Immensely many criticisms followed after the war and problems were identified when it comes to the Royal Navy's performance during the war. This type of effort to identify problem led to the attempt to analyze whether Royal Navy's preparation for war and rearmament policy during interwar period were adequate, and to identify the root causes of failure. Existing studies sought to find the root cause of failed rearmament from external factors such as the deterioration of the Britain itself or pressure from the Treasury Department to cut the budget for national defense, or sought to detect problems from the development of wrong strategies by the Navy. However, Royal Navy's failed preparation for the war during interwar period is not the result of one or two separate factors. Instead, it resulted due to the diverse factors and situations that the Britain was facing at the time, and due to intricate and complex interaction of these factors. Meanwhile, this research paper focused on the context characterized by 'strategic selection and setting up of priorities' among the various factors to conduct analysis on the Navy's rearmament by linking it with the discussion held at the time on setting up strategic priorities, and sought to demonstrate that the Navy Department's inadequate counter-measures developed during this process waned Royal Navy's position. After the end of WWI, each of the military arms continued to compete for the limited resources and budget all throughout the interwar period, and this type of competition amidst the situation in which the economic situation of Britain was still unstable, made prioritization when it comes to the allocation of resources and setting up of the priorities when it comes to the military power build-up, inevitable. Amidst this situation, the RAF was able to secure resources first and foremost, encouraged by the conviction of some politicians who were affected by the 'theory of aerial threat' and who believed that curtailing potential attack with the Air Force would be means to secure national security at comparatively lower cost. In response, Navy successfully defended the need for the existence of Navy despite the advancement of the aerial power, by emphasizing that the Britain's livelihood depends on trade and on the maintenance of maritime traffic. Despite this counter-measuring logic, however, Navy's role was still limited to the defense of overseas territory and to the fleet run-off instead of sea traffic route production when it comes to the specific power build-up plan, and did not understand the situation in which financial and economic factors gained greater importance when it comes to the setting up of strategic priorities. As a result, Navy's plan to build its powers was met with continual resistance of the Treasury Department, and lost the opportunity to re-gain the status of 'senior service' that it had enjoyed in the past during the competition for strategic prioritization. Given that the strategic and economic situation that Korea faces today is not very different from that of the Britain during the interwar period, our Navy too should leverage the lessons learned from the Royal Navy to make the effort to secure viable position when it comes to the setting of priorities in case of national defense strategy by presenting the basis on why maritime coping should be prioritized among the numerous other threats, and by developing the measures for securing the powers needed effectively amidst the limited resources.

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A Comparison of Minilaparotomy and Laparoscopic Sterilization (Minilaparotomy 불임술(不妊術)과 복강경불임술(腹腔鏡不妊術)에 관(關)한 비교연구(比較硏究))

  • Bai, Byoung-Choo
    • Clinical and Experimental Reproductive Medicine
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.17-25
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    • 1977
  • Anderson(1937), Power and Barnes(1941) reported a study concerning a method of tubal sterilization in association with peritoneoscopy or laparoscopy in which they cauterized the tubes. There appears to have been a hiatus of interest in sterilization (cold or hot) associated with laparoscopy until reintroduction by Palmer(1963), Frangenheim(1964) and Steptoe(1967). On the other hand, for interval female sterilization, however, minilaparotomy is relatively new. By Saunder and Munsick(1972), John Lyle(1974), Frank Stubb(1974), Vitoon(1973) and B.C. Bai(1975), their own technique for interval female sterilization requires 2.0 to 2.5cm, incision at the margin of the mons pubis. In Korea, female sterilization by means of minilaparotomy firstly reported by B.C. Bai using Bai's uterine elevator, of his own device, early in 1975. Recently inteval female sterilization by laparoscopy and minilaparotomy are widely accepted throughout the world especially in Asian countries. Minilaparotomy is carried out from 1974, laparoscopic sterilization from 1976, and in this study each of 250 cases of those were analysed and discussed for the comparison at Seoul Red Cross Hospital. (1) In the age distribution, numerous clients were in their age of $31{\sim}35$ in laparoscopy as well as minilaparotomy. Average 33.7 years in L and 33.2 years in M. (M=minilaparotomy, L=laparoscopic sterilization) (2) As regarding living children, women having 3 children represented the greatest number, 113 cases out of 250 in M group and 102 cases out of 250 in L group. Average No. of child are 2.9 in Land 3.1 in M. (3) Concidering the operation day in the menstrml cycle, the greatest number of cases, those who underwent tubal sterilization during the days of $26{\sim}$, next during the $6{\sim}10$ days of the cycle in both group. (4) Concidering the operation time, 188 cases by laparoscopy were performed in $6{\sim}10$ minutes, 33 cases within 5 minutes and 24 cases in $11{\sim}15$ minutes. Maximum 50 minutes, minimum 4 minutes and average 8.3 minutes. The majority of cases (154 cases) by minilaparotomy required $6{\sim}10$ minutes and 67 cases $11{\sim}15$ minutes, 6 cases within 5 minutes. Maximum 30 minutes, minimum 4 minutes and average 10.4, minutes. In both groups, most of the reasons for the extra length were surgical difficulties such as thick abdominal wall, pelvic adhesion, less cooperation of patients in early period of this study. (5) Hospital stay after operation in L group required $3{\sim}4$ hours in 125 cases, $2{\sim}3$ hours in 41 cases, $4{\sim}5$ hours in 32 cases out of 250. Maximum 8 hours, minimum 1 hour and average 3.8 hours. In M group hospital stay required $6{\sim}7$ hours in 100 cases, over 7 hours in 85 cases, $5{\sim}6$ hours in 46 cases and so on. Maximum 14 hours, minimum 2 hours and average 6.5 hours. (6) The time between operation and gas passing in the majority cases of both groups, were $12{\sim}36$ hours. A veragetime 20.3 hours in L and 27.2 in M. (7) Laparoscopic sterilization coincident with induced abortion were carried out in 27 cases, laparoscopy with minilaparotomy to control for mesosalpingeal hemorrhage in 1 case. Minilaparotomy coincident with induced abortion were performed in 65 cases, D and C whit polypectomy, menstrual regulatian, and remaval of IUD in 1 case respectively. (8) In L group, 1 case of mesosalpingeal hemorrhage, 1 case of abdominal wall infection were complicated during operation. In M group, 1 case of uterine perfaration, 1 case of abdominal wall infection, 1 case of hemorrhage from omentum and 1 case of bloody vaginal discharge were complicated. No intensive medical treatment was required for those minor complications in both groups. (9) No failure has been recognized and these two sterilization techniques might be the simple, safe and the most effective method for permanent contraception at present time. There is no significant clinical defference between L and M group in this study.

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Empirical Analysis of Accelerator Investment Determinants Based on Business Model Innovation Framework (비즈니스 모델 혁신 프레임워크 기반의 액셀러레이터 투자결정요인 실증 분석)

  • Jung, Mun-Su;Kim, Eun-Hee
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.253-270
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    • 2023
  • Research on investment determinants of accelerators, which are attracting attention by greatly improving the survival rate of startups by providing professional incubation and investment to startups at the same time, is gradually expanding. However, previous studies do not have a theoretical basis in developing investment determinants in the early stages, and they use factors of angel investors or venture capital, which are similar investors, and are still in the stage of analyzing importance and priority through empirical research. Therefore, this study verified for the first time in Korea the discrimination and effectiveness of investment determinants using accelerator investment determinants developed based on the business model innovation framework in previous studies. To this end, we first set the criteria for success and failure of startup investment based on scale-up theory and conducted a survey of 22 investment experts from 14 accelerators in Korea, and secured valid data on a total of 97 startups, including 52 successful scale-up startups and 45 failed scale-up startups, were obtained and an independent sample t-test was conducted to verify the mean difference between these two groups by accelerator investment determinants. As a result of the analysis, it was confirmed that the investment determinants of accelerators based on business model innovation framework have considerable discrimination in finding successful startups and making investment decisions. In addition, as a result of analyzing manufacturing-related startups and service-related startups considering the characteristics of innovation by industry, manufacturing-related startups differed in business model, strategy, and dynamic capability factors, while service-related startups differed in dynamic capabilities. This study has great academic implications in that it verified the practical effectiveness of accelerator investment determinants derived based on business model innovation framework for the first time in Korea, and it has high practical value in that it can make effective investments by providing theoretical grounds and detailed information for investment decisions.

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A Study on Improvement of the police disaster crisis management system (경찰의 재난위기관리 개선에 관한 연구)

  • Chun, Yongtae;Kim, Moonkwi
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.556-569
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    • 2015
  • With about 75% of the population of Korea criticizing the government's disaster policy and a failure to respond to large-scale emergency like the Sewol ferry sinking means that there is a deep distrust in the government. In order to prevent dreadful disasters such as the Sewol ferry sinking, it is important to secure a prime time with respect to disaster safety. Improving crisis management skills and managerial role of police officers who are in close proximity to the people is necessary for the success of disaster management. With disaster management as one of the most essential missions of the police, as a part of a national crisis management, a step by step strengthening of the disaster safety management system of the police is necessary, as below. First, at the prevention phase, law enforcement officers were not injected into for profit large-scale assemblies or events, but in the future the involvement, injection should be based on the level of potential risk, rather than profitability. In the past and now, the priortiy was the priority was on traffic flow, traffic communication, however, the paradigm of traffic policy should be changed to a safety-centered policy. To prevent large-scale accidents, police investigators should root out improper routines and illegal construction subcontracting. The police (intelligence) should strengthen efforts to collect intelligence under the subject of "safety". Second, with respect to the preparatory phase, on a survey of police officers, the result showed that 72% of police officers responded that safety management was not related to the job descriptions of the police. This, along with other results, shows that the awareness of disaster safety must be adopted by, or rather changed in the police urgently. The training in disaster safety education should be strengthened. A network of experts (private, administrative, and police) in safety management should be established to take advantage of private resources with regard to crisis situtions. Third, with respect to the response phase, for rapid first responses to occur, a unified communication network should be established, and a real-time video information network should be adopted by the police and installed in the police situation room. Fourth, during the recovery phase, recovery teams should be injected, added and operated to minimize secondary damage.

A Study on Setup for Preliminary Decision Criterion of Continuum Rock Mass Slope with Fair to Good Rating (양호한 연속체 암반사면의 예비 판정기준 설정 연구)

  • Kim, Hyung-Min;Lee, Su-gon;Lee, Byok-Kyu;Woo, Jae-Gyung
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.85-97
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    • 2019
  • It can be observed that steep slopes ($65^{\circ}$ to $80^{\circ}$) consist of rock masses were kept stable for a long time. In rock-mass slopes with similar ground condition, steeper slopes than 1 : 0.5 ($63^{\circ}$) may be applied if the discontinuities of rock-mass slope are distributed in a direction favorable to the stability of the slope. In making a decision the angle of the slope, if the preliminary rock mass conditions applicable to steep slope are quantitatively setup, they may be used as guidance in design practice. In this study, the above rock mass was defined as a good continuum rock mass and the quantitative setup criterion range was proposed using RMR, SMR and GSI classifications for the purpose of providing engineering standard for good continuum rock mass conditions. The methods of study are as follows. The stable slope at steep slopes ($65^{\circ}$ to $80^{\circ}$) for each rock type was selected as the study area, and RMR, SMR and GSI were classified to reflect the face mapping results. The results were reviewed by applying the calculated shear strength to the stable analysis of the current state of rock mass slope using the Hoek-Brown failure criterion. It is intended to verify the validity of the preliminary criterion as a rock mass condition that remains stable on a steep slope. Based on the analysis and review by the above research method, it was analyzed that a good continuum rock mass slope can be set to Basic RMR ${\geq}50$ (45 in sedimentary rock), GSI and SMR ${\geq}45$. The safety factor of the LEM is between Fs = 14.08 and 67.50 (average 32.9), and the displacement of the FEM is 0.13 to 0.64 mm (average 0.27 mm). This can be seen as a result of quantitative representation and verification of the stability of a good continuum rock mass slope that has been maintained stable for a long period of time with steep slopes ($65^{\circ}$ to $80^{\circ}$). The setup guideline for a good continuum rock mass slope will be able to establish a more detailed setup standard when the data are accumulated, and it is also a further study project. If stable even on steep slopes of 1 : 0.1 to 0.3, the upper limit of steep slopes is 1 : 0.3 with reference to the overseas design standards and report, thus giving the benefit of ensuring economic and eco-friendlyness. Also, the development of excavation technology and plantation technology and various eco-friendly slope design techniques will help overcome psychological anxiety and rapid weathering and relaxation due to steep slope construction.

From a Defecation Alert System to a Smart Bottle: Understanding Lean Startup Methodology from the Case of Startup "L" (배변알리미에서 스마트바틀 출시까지: 스타트업 L사 사례로 본 린 스타트업 실천방안)

  • Sunkyung Park;Ju-Young Park
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.91-107
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    • 2023
  • Lean startup is a concept that combines the words "lean," meaning an efficient way of running a business, and "startup," meaning a new business. It is often cited as a strategy for minimizing failure in early-stage businesses, especially in software-based startups. By scrutinizing the case of a startup L, this study suggests that lean startup methodology(LSM) can be useful for hardware and manufacturing companies and identifies ways for early startups to successfully implement LSM. To this end, the study explained the core of LSM including the concepts of hypothesis-driven approach, BML feedback loop, minimum viable product(MVP), and pivot. Five criteria to evaluate the successful implementation of LSM were derived from the core concepts and applied to evaluate the case of startup L . The early startup L pivoted its main business model from defecation alert system for patients with limited mobility to one for infants or toddlers, and finally to a smart bottle for infants. In developing the former two products, analyzed from LSM's perspective, company L neither established a specific customer value proposition for its startup idea and nor verified it through MVP experiment, thus failed to create a BML feedback loop. However, through two rounds of pivots, startup L discovered new target customers and customer needs, and was able to establish a successful business model by repeatedly experimenting with MVPs with minimal effort and time. In other words, Company L's case shows that it is essential to go through the customer-market validation stage at the beginning of the business, and that it should be done through an MVP method that does not waste the startup's time and resources. It also shows that it is necessary to abandon and pivot a product or service that customers do not want, even if it is technically superior and functionally complete. Lastly, the study proves that the lean startup methodology is not limited to the software industry, but can also be applied to technology-based hardware industry. The findings of this study can be used as guidelines and methodologies for early-stage companies to minimize failures and to accelerate the process of establishing a business model, scaling up, and going global.

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Multiple accelerated degradation test and failure analysis for $Ni-BaTiO_3$ MLCCs ($Ni-BaTiO_3$ MLCCs에 대한 복합 가속 열화 시험 및 고장 분석)

  • Kim, Jung-Woo;Kim, Jin-Seong;Lee, Hee-Soo;Kang, Do-Won;Kim, Jeong-Wook
    • Journal of the Korean Crystal Growth and Crystal Technology
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.102-105
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    • 2009
  • The accelerated life time test of the MLCCs with different $BaTiO_3$ particle sizes were conducted at $150^{\circ}C$, 75 V condition and the effect of $BaTiO_3$ particle size on the breakdown voltage and degradation characteristics of MLCCs was investigated. The MLCCs were prepared by using the $BaTiO_3$ particles having the size of $0.525{\mu}m$, $0.555{\mu}m$, $0.580{\mu}m$ and Ni-electrode, respectively. The MLCCs which have the particle size of $0.525{\mu}m$, $0.555{\mu}m$, and $0.580{\mu}m$, respectively were confirmed to meet the standard requirements of X5R(change capacitance within ${\pm}15%$ at $-55{\sim}85^{\circ}C$) by TCC(Temperature Coefficient of Capacitance). The effect of the $BaTiO_3$ particle size on the insulation resistance behavior of MLCCs was confirmed by BDV(Breakdown Voltage) measurements and the cause and degree of degradation of MLCCs were characterized by XPS analysis after the accelerated life test. The MLCCs with $0.525{\mu}m-BaTiO_3$ showed better insulation resistance and BDV characteristics compare to other MLCCs and XPS analysis revealed that the MLCCs degradation is caused by the NiO peak and $BaTiO_3$ peak decrease.

An Exploratory Study on Factors Impacting the Public Technology Commercialization in Korean SMEs (우리나라 중소기업의 공공기술 사업화 영향요인에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Mun-Su;Chang, Daniel Soonwoo
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.275-306
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    • 2016
  • This paper investigates the success and failure factors of technology commercialization for SMEs developing public sector technologies. The 2014 Korea Technology Transfer Commercialization Status Report states that only 30% of the technologies that are transferred are being used and the rest are neglected. The objective of this paper is to determine the relationship between quantitative variables and the success rate of technology commercialization of 1,222 SMEs in Korea by using three analyzes (cross tabulation, process and logistic) methodologies to increase the success of public technology commercialization. The outcome shows that the number of successful technology deployment cases and the number of IPR registration cases have a positive impact on the success rate of public technology commercialization. The statistical outcome also verifies that unnecessary technology development, more attempts and failures of technology development, and longer lead time in the planning phase have a negative impact on the success rate of the public technology development and commercialization. For policy implications, the government should be selective in supporting public technology commercialization and development for SMEs as not all technology attempts exert positive effects.

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Studies on Improved Carbon Cathode Performance in High Rate $Li/SOCl_2$ Cell (고율 방전용 $Li/SOCl_2$ 전지의 카본 양극 개선에 관한 연구)

  • 최정자;조성백;박희숙
    • Journal of the Korean Ceramic Society
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.225-232
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    • 1997
  • The performance characteristics of high rate discharge LiSOCl2 cells are highly affected by carbon cathode. During the cell discharge, SOCl2 reduction takes place at the porous carbon cathode, resulting in the precipitation of reaction products, mainly LiCl, within the pores of the substrate. This leads to eventual passivation of the cathode surface and resulting cell failure. To improve the cathode performance, we ex-amined discharge reactions of cathodes (half-cell, 50 mA/$\textrm{cm}^2$ constant current) with various surface density and thickness. The carbon cathode with the optimum capacity for our application is surface density 0.04 g/$\textrm{cm}^2$ and thickness 1.4mm carbon. The carbon cathode with surface density 0.04g/$\textrm{cm}^2$ and thickness 1.4 mm exhibits decreased polarization, increased discharge duration time and capacity (Ah/$\textrm{cm}^2$) as compared with that with surface density 0.04g/$\textrm{cm}^2$ and thickness 0.8mm. The porosities analyses on the two carbon cathodes show that total pore volume of the carbon cathode with thickness 1.4 mm is larger than that with thickness 0.8mm. The increased volume of mesopores (0.05$\mu$m~0.5$\mu$m) and macropores(>0.5$\mu$m) is ob-served with the carbon cathode with thickness 1.4mm as compared with that with thickness 0.8mm, which can be related with the observed capacity increase. We observed LiCl crystals, cubic crystallites and fused, plate-like aggregates, and some elemental S as discharge products by EDS and XRD.

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