• Title/Summary/Keyword: time series regression analysis

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Spillover Effects of Foreign Direct Investment Inflows and Exchange Rates on the Banking Industry in China

  • Lee, Jung Wan;Wang, Zhen
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.15-24
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    • 2018
  • The study examines the magnitude of economic spillover and the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows on the efficiency of the bank industry in China. This study employs unit root tests, cointegration tests and cointegrating regression analysis, including fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) and dynamic OLS (DOLS) to test the proposed hypotheses. The sample is restricted to the period of time in which monthly data is available and comparable among variables for the period from January 2002 to October 2013 (142 observations). All of the time series data was collected and retrieved from the People's Bank of China, China Monthly Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, and International Financial Statistics database from International Monetary Fund. The results of the Johansen cointegration test suggest that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between FDI inflows, foreign exchange rate and banks performance in China. The results of cointegrating regression analysis using FMOLS, CCR and DOLS suggest that M2 supply and FDI inflows are significant at the 0.01 level. The results confirm that FDI inflows in the banking sector are positively related to the increase of banks productivity and performance and short-term loans in China. However, the results suggest that Chinese Yuan currency exchange rate to U.S. dollar is not significant in the banking and financial industry of China.

Non-Response Imputation for Panel Data (패널자료의 무응답 대체법)

  • Pak, Gi-Deok;Shin, Key-Il
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.899-907
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    • 2010
  • Several non-response imputation methods are suggested, however, mainly cross-sectional imputations are studied and applied to this analysis. A simple and common imputation method for panel data is the cross-wave regression imputation or carry-over imputation as a special case of cross-wave regression imputation. This study suggests a multiple imputation method combined time series analysis and cross-sectional multiple imputation method. We compare this method and the cross-wave regression imputation method using MSE, MAE, and Bias. The 2008 monthly labor survey data is used for this study.

A Study of Non-parametric Statistical Tests to Analyze Trend in Water Quality Data (수질자료의 추세분석을 위한 비모수적 통계검정에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Sang-Hoon
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.93-103
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    • 1995
  • This study was carried out to suggest the best statistical test to analyze the trend in monthly water quality data. Traditional parametric tests such as t-test and regression analysis are based on the assumption that the underlying population has a normal distribution and regression analysis additionally assumes that residual errors are independent. Analyzing 9-years monthly COD data collected at Paldang in Han River, the underlying population was found to be neither normal nor independent. Therefore parametric tests are invalid for trend detection. Four Kinds of nonparametric statistical tests, such as Run Test, Daniel test, Mann-Kendall test, and Time Series Residual Analysis were applied to analyze the trend in the COD data, Daniel test and Mann-Kendall test indicated upward trend in COD data. The best nonparametric test was suggested to be Daniel test, which is simple in computation and easy to understand the intuitive meaning.

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Analysis of the Effect on Domestic PV Capacity under the REC Revision and Mandatory Supply (REC 개정과 의무공급량이 국내 태양광 설비량에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Beak, Hun;Kim, Taesung
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.12 no.6
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    • pp.139-150
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    • 2021
  • Currently, the RPS(Renewable Portfolio Standard) is the policy which supplies new and renewable energy. Power generation companies with large capacity should produce renewable energy or secure through the purchase of REC (Renewable Energy Certificates) as mandatory. The government has revised the REC weight several times, which weights each energy source by evaluating the economic and social value of renewable energy sources, and revised the mandatory supply ratio to gradually increase. This study helps to find the impact of policies on related industries. In this study, time-series analysis and regression analysis on the capacity of PV(Photovoltaics) facilities as a dependent variable were performed to analyze the effect of the revision of the REC weight for photovoltaic power generation and the amount of mandatory supply for renewable energy. As a result, it was statistically assessed that the revision of the REC weight and the increase in the mandatory supply has a significant effect on the increase in the amount of PV facilities.

A Study on the Improvement of the Accuracy for the Least-Squares Method Using Orthogonal Function (직교함수를 이용한 최소자승법의 정밀도 향상에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, Won Cheol;Lee, Jae Joon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.43-52
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    • 1986
  • With increasing of computer use, a least squares method is now widely used in the regression analysis of various data. Unreliable results of regression coefficients due to the floating point of computer and problems of ordinary least squares method are described in detail. To improve these problems, a least squares method using orthogonal function is developed. Also, Comparison and analysis are performed through an example of numerical test, and re-orthogonalization method is used to increase the accuracy. As an example of application, the optimum order of AR process for the time series of monthly flow at the Pyungchang station is determined using Akaike's FPE(Final Prediction Error) which decides optimum degree of AR process. The result shows the AR(2) process is optimum to the series at the station.

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Estimating Bathroom Water-uses based on Time Series Regression (시계열 회귀모형에 기초한 욕실 내 용수 사용량 추정)

  • Myoung, Sungmin;Kim, Donggeon;Jo, Jinnam
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.19 no.8
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    • pp.19-26
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    • 2014
  • Analysis of influential factors on water consumption in households will help predicting the water demand of end-use in household and give an explanation to cause on the change of trend. In this research, the data are gathered by radio telemetry system which is combined electronic flow-meter and wireless communication system in 140 household in Korea. Using this data, we estimate for each residential type to determine liter per capita day. we used real data to predict bathtub and washbowl water-uses and compared the ordinary least square regression model and autoregressive regression error model. The results of this study can be applied in the planning stages of water and waste water facilities.

Cloud Removal Using Gaussian Process Regression for Optical Image Reconstruction

  • Park, Soyeon;Park, No-Wook
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.327-341
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    • 2022
  • Cloud removal is often required to construct time-series sets of optical images for environmental monitoring. In regression-based cloud removal, the selection of an appropriate regression model and the impact analysis of the input images significantly affect the prediction performance. This study evaluates the potential of Gaussian process (GP) regression for cloud removal and also analyzes the effects of cloud-free optical images and spectral bands on prediction performance. Unlike other machine learning-based regression models, GP regression provides uncertainty information and automatically optimizes hyperparameters. An experiment using Sentinel-2 multi-spectral images was conducted for cloud removal in the two agricultural regions. The prediction performance of GP regression was compared with that of random forest (RF) regression. Various combinations of input images and multi-spectral bands were considered for quantitative evaluations. The experimental results showed that using multi-temporal images with multi-spectral bands as inputs achieved the best prediction accuracy. Highly correlated adjacent multi-spectral bands and temporally correlated multi-temporal images resulted in an improved prediction accuracy. The prediction performance of GP regression was significantly improved in predicting the near-infrared band compared to that of RF regression. Estimating the distribution function of input data in GP regression could reflect the variations in the considered spectral band with a broader range. In particular, GP regression was superior to RF regression for reproducing structural patterns at both sites in terms of structural similarity. In addition, uncertainty information provided by GP regression showed a reasonable similarity to prediction errors for some sub-areas, indicating that uncertainty estimates may be used to measure the prediction result quality. These findings suggest that GP regression could be beneficial for cloud removal and optical image reconstruction. In addition, the impact analysis results of the input images provide guidelines for selecting optimal images for regression-based cloud removal.

A Study on the Factors Affecting Air Cargo Volume Using Time Series Data : Focusing on Incheon-Shanghai, Guangzhou, Tianjin, and Beijing (시계열 데이터를 활용한 항공 화물 물동량 영향 요인에 관한 연구 : 인천-상하이, 광저우, 톈진, 베이징을 중심으로)

  • Sin, Seung-Youn;Moon, Seung-Jin;Park, In-Mu;Ahn, Jeong-Min;Ha, Yong-Hee
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.15-22
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    • 2020
  • Economic indicators are a factor that affects air cargo volume. This study analyzes the different factors affecting air cargo volume by each Chinese cities according to the main characteristics. The purpose of this study is to help companies related to China, airlines, and other stakeholders predict and prepare for the fluctuations in air cargo volume and make optimal decisions. To this end, 20 economic data were used, and the entire data was reduced to 5 dimensions through factor analysis to build a dataset necessary and evaluated the influencing factors by multi regression. The result shows that Macro-Economic Indicators, Production/Service indicators are significant for every cities and Chinese manufacture/Customer indicators, Korean manufacture/Oil Price indicators, Trade/Current indicators are significant for each other city. All adjusted R2 values are high enough to explain our model and the result showed excellent performance in terms of analyzing the different factors which affects air cargo volume. If companies that are currently doing business with China can identify factors affecting China's cargo volume, they can be flexible in response to changes in plans such as plans to enter China, production plans and inventory management, and marketing strategies, which can be of great help in terms of corporate operations.

A comparison of mortality projection by different time period in time series (시계열 이용기간에 따른 사망률 예측 비교)

  • Kim, Soon-Young;Oh, Jinho;Kim, Kee-Whan
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.41-65
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    • 2018
  • In Korea, as the mortality rate improves in a shorter period of time than in developed countries, it is important to consider the selection of the time series as well as the model selection in the mortality projection. Therefore, this study proposed a method using the multiple regression model in respect to the selection of the time series period. In addition, we investigate the problems that arise when various time series are used based on the Lee-Carter (LC) model, the kinds of LC model along with Lee-Miller (LM) and Booth-Maindonald-Smith (BMS), and the non-parametric model such as functional data model (FDM) and Coherent FDM, and examine differences in the age-specific mortality rate and life expectancy projection. Based on the analysis results, the age-specific mortality rate and predicted life expectancy of men and women are calculated for the year 2030 for each model. We also compare the mortality rate and life expectancy of the next generation provided by Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS).

Indoor Air Condition Measurement and Regression Analysis System Through Sensor Measurement Device and Gated Recurrent Unit (센서 측정기와 회로형 순환 유닛(GRU)을 이용한 실내 공기 품질 측정 및 추세 예측 시스템)

  • Ahn, Jaehyun;Shin, Dongil;Kim, Kyuho;Yang, Jihoon
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • v.6 no.9
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    • pp.457-464
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    • 2017
  • Indoor air quality analysis is conducted to understand abnormal atmospheric phenomena and the external factor affecting indoor air quality. By recording indoor air quality measurements periodically, we are able to observe patterns in air quality. However, it difficult to predict the number of potential parameters, set parameters for a given observation and find the coefficients. Moreover, the results are time-dependent. Thus to address these issues, we introduce a microchip capable of periodically recording indoor air quality and a model that estimates atmospheric changes based on time series data.