• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.1-23
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• 2014

Market forecasting aims to estimate the sales volume of a product or service that is sold to consumers for a specific selling period. From the perspective of the enterprise, accurate market forecasting assists in determining the timing of new product introduction, product design, and establishing production plans and marketing strategies that enable a more efficient decision-making process. Moreover, accurate market forecasting enables governments to efficiently establish a national budget organization. This study aims to generate a market growth curve for ICT (information and communication technology) goods using past time series data; categorize products showing similar growth patterns; understand markets in the industry; and forecast the future outlook of such products. This study suggests the useful and meaningful process (or methodology) to identify the market growth pattern with quantitative growth model and data mining algorithm. The study employs the following methodology. At the first stage, past time series data are collected based on the target products or services of categorized industry. The data, such as the volume of sales and domestic consumption for a specific product or service, are collected from the relevant government ministry, the National Statistical Office, and other relevant government organizations. For collected data that may not be analyzed due to the lack of past data and the alteration of code names, data pre-processing work should be performed. At the second stage of this process, an optimal model for market forecasting should be selected. This model can be varied on the basis of the characteristics of each categorized industry. As this study is focused on the ICT industry, which has more frequent new technology appearances resulting in changes of the market structure, Logistic model, Gompertz model, and Bass model are selected. A hybrid model that combines different models can also be considered. The hybrid model considered for use in this study analyzes the size of the market potential through the Logistic and Gompertz models, and then the figures are used for the Bass model. The third stage of this process is to evaluate which model most accurately explains the data. In order to do this, the parameter should be estimated on the basis of the collected past time series data to generate the models' predictive value and calculate the root-mean squared error (RMSE). The model that shows the lowest average RMSE value for every product type is considered as the best model. At the fourth stage of this process, based on the estimated parameter value generated by the best model, a market growth pattern map is constructed with self-organizing map algorithm. A self-organizing map is learning with market pattern parameters for all products or services as input data, and the products or services are organized into an $N{\times}N$ map. The number of clusters increase from 2 to M, depending on the characteristics of the nodes on the map. The clusters are divided into zones, and the clusters with the ability to provide the most meaningful explanation are selected. Based on the final selection of clusters, the boundaries between the nodes are selected and, ultimately, the market growth pattern map is completed. The last step is to determine the final characteristics of the clusters as well as the market growth curve. The average of the market growth pattern parameters in the clusters is taken to be a representative figure. Using this figure, a growth curve is drawn for each cluster, and their characteristics are analyzed. Also, taking into consideration the product types in each cluster, their characteristics can be qualitatively generated. We expect that the process and system that this paper suggests can be used as a tool for forecasting demand in the ICT and other industries.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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• v.30 no.5
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• pp.913-920
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• 2001

The effect of kimchi pill supplementation on plasma lipid concentration of middle aged healthy people were studied. Freeze-dried mustard leaf added (30%) Korean cabbage kimchi and powdered glutinous parch were used to prepare kimchi and placebo pill, respectively. Experimental group if six participants took 3 g of freeze-dried kimchi as a pill daily for 6 weeks which is equivalent to 30 g of fresh kimchi and control group of six people took same amount of placebo. The diet intakes for the kimchi and placebo group fairly remained unchanged during 6 weeks of trial. When the effect of kimchi pill supplementation was expressed as average percentage changes based on each individual changes, the plasma triglyceride concentration of kimchi pill group was sig-nificantly decreased by 16.8% during trial (p<0.05)while that of placebo group increased by 9.8%, But no changes in plasma and LDL cholesterol concentrations of both groups were observed. HDL cholesterol of kimchi pill group significantly increased by 11.7%(p<0.05), therefore the ratio LDL/HDL cholesterol was significantly decreased by 6.7%(p<0.05) while that for the placebo group increased. The atherogenic index at the kimchi group was also significantly decreased by 10.8%(p<0.05). Kimchi supplementation seemed to have beneficial effects on controlling plasma triglyceride and HDL cholesterol in middle aged men.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.39 no.1
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• pp.131-147
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• 2023

Gwangyang Port Marine Industry Cluster is the only marine industry cluster in Korea that is currently in operation, but despite the implementation of various revitalization policies since its opening, the occupancy rate has been low so far. Accordingly, this study aims to identify the constraints of the current system that hinder the inducement of tenant companies and to suggest revitalization measures. For this purpose, this study analyzed the current status of research and development(R&D) projects in the port, shipping and logistics sector, which is a core industry of the Gwangyang Port Marine Industry Cluster. And a survey was conducted on companies with potential to move in. As a result, the proportion of R&D in the core industry sectors is lower than in other sectors, and most of R&D projects are being carried out mainly by small and medium-sized enterprises. In addition, the low need for port facilities and low accessibility to Gwangyang Port were derived as constraints. Considering the results, this study suggests four revitalization measures to induce tenant companies as follows. First, it is necessary to expand the scope of core industries from the current shipping, ports, and logistics to the entire maritime and fisheries, so that companies performing R&D in the industry can move in. Second, the industry code currently specified as a qualification need to be revised to include both the industry of the enterprise carrying out R&D projects and the core industry. Therefore, this study suggests an expanded industry code list that can replace current list. Third, a transition of tenant recruitment system from the regular system(once or twice a year) to the occasional system is proposed so that companies can move in flexibly when demand arises. Finally, in order to overcome geographically low accessibility, technology development support projects specialized in R&D that prospective tenant companies actually need are needed rather than financial support.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.41 no.1 s.112
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• pp.106-120
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• 2006

Natural or man-made disaster has been expected to be one of the potential themes that can integrate human geography and physical geography. Typhoons like Rusa and Maemi caused great loss to insurance companies as well as public sectors. We have implemented a natural disaster management system for a private insurance company to produce better estimation of hazards from high wind as well as calculate vulnerability of damage. Climatic gauge sites and addresses of contract's objects were geo-coded and the pressure values along all the typhoon tracks were vectorized into line objects. National GIS topog raphic maps with scale of 1: 5,000 were updated into base maps and digital elevation model with 30 meter space and land cover maps were used for reflecting roughness of land to wind velocity. All the data are converted to grid coverage with $1km{\times}1km$. Vulnerability curve of Munich Re was ad opted, and preprocessor and postprocessor of wind velocity model was implemented. Overlapping the location of contracts on the grid value coverage can show the relative risk, with given scenario. The wind velocities calculated by the model were compared with observed value (average $R^2=0.68$). The calibration of wind speed models was done by dropping two climatic gauge data, which enhanced $R^2$ values. The comparison of calculated loss with actual historical loss of the insurance company showed both underestimation and overestimation. This system enables the company to have quantitative data for optimizing the re-insurance ratio, to have a plan to allocate enterprise resources and to upgrade the international creditability of the company. A flood model, storm surge model and flash flood model are being added, at last, combined disaster vulnerability will be calculated for a total disaster management system.

• Journal of Mushroom
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.45-53
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• 2017

Profitability of farmers has decreased mainly owing to low price while the gross amount of mushroom production has increased continuously in South Korea. In this regard, analyzing patterns of mushroom consumption is believed to be meaningful. We used a panel data set consisting of 667 families, from 2010 to 2015. Based on the panel data, mushroom consumption patterns of people living in city areas were examined. Multiple descriptive analysis methods and frequency analysis approaches were adopted in this study in terms of time and space dimensions, demographic properties, and purchase behaviors. The findings of this studyshow that mushroom purchase is highly dependent on seasonal events, which implies that the product consumption timing is predictable. In addition, yearly purchase amount patterns reflect that superstores have become the major mushroomtrading venues. This directly supports the need to establish supply chain capabilities for mushroom farmers so that they gain more bargaining power against enterprise-type groceries. Finally, functional features of mushroom can be linked with marketing promotion because purchase patterns demonstrate potential needs for healthcare food in mushroom categories. Based on the analyzed patterns, this paper provides insightful implications for policy makers who want to promote mushroom consumption.