A Methodology of Customer Churn Prediction based on Two-Dimensional Loyalty Segmentation (이차원 고객충성도 세그먼트 기반의 고객이탈예측 방법론)
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- Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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- v.26 no.4
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- pp.111-126
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- 2020
Most industries have recently become aware of the importance of customer lifetime value as they are exposed to a competitive environment. As a result, preventing customers from churn is becoming a more important business issue than securing new customers. This is because maintaining churn customers is far more economical than securing new customers, and in fact, the acquisition cost of new customers is known to be five to six times higher than the maintenance cost of churn customers. Also, Companies that effectively prevent customer churn and improve customer retention rates are known to have a positive effect on not only increasing the company's profitability but also improving its brand image by improving customer satisfaction. Predicting customer churn, which had been conducted as a sub-research area for CRM, has recently become more important as a big data-based performance marketing theme due to the development of business machine learning technology. Until now, research on customer churn prediction has been carried out actively in such sectors as the mobile telecommunication industry, the financial industry, the distribution industry, and the game industry, which are highly competitive and urgent to manage churn. In addition, These churn prediction studies were focused on improving the performance of the churn prediction model itself, such as simply comparing the performance of various models, exploring features that are effective in forecasting departures, or developing new ensemble techniques, and were limited in terms of practical utilization because most studies considered the entire customer group as a group and developed a predictive model. As such, the main purpose of the existing related research was to improve the performance of the predictive model itself, and there was a relatively lack of research to improve the overall customer churn prediction process. In fact, customers in the business have different behavior characteristics due to heterogeneous transaction patterns, and the resulting churn rate is different, so it is unreasonable to assume the entire customer as a single customer group. Therefore, it is desirable to segment customers according to customer classification criteria, such as loyalty, and to operate an appropriate churn prediction model individually, in order to carry out effective customer churn predictions in heterogeneous industries. Of course, in some studies, there are studies in which customers are subdivided using clustering techniques and applied a churn prediction model for individual customer groups. Although this process of predicting churn can produce better predictions than a single predict model for the entire customer population, there is still room for improvement in that clustering is a mechanical, exploratory grouping technique that calculates distances based on inputs and does not reflect the strategic intent of an entity such as loyalties. This study proposes a segment-based customer departure prediction process (CCP/2DL: Customer Churn Prediction based on Two-Dimensional Loyalty segmentation) based on two-dimensional customer loyalty, assuming that successful customer churn management can be better done through improvements in the overall process than through the performance of the model itself. CCP/2DL is a series of churn prediction processes that segment two-way, quantitative and qualitative loyalty-based customer, conduct secondary grouping of customer segments according to churn patterns, and then independently apply heterogeneous churn prediction models for each churn pattern group. Performance comparisons were performed with the most commonly applied the General churn prediction process and the Clustering-based churn prediction process to assess the relative excellence of the proposed churn prediction process. The General churn prediction process used in this study refers to the process of predicting a single group of customers simply intended to be predicted as a machine learning model, using the most commonly used churn predicting method. And the Clustering-based churn prediction process is a method of first using clustering techniques to segment customers and implement a churn prediction model for each individual group. In cooperation with a global NGO, the proposed CCP/2DL performance showed better performance than other methodologies for predicting churn. This churn prediction process is not only effective in predicting churn, but can also be a strategic basis for obtaining a variety of customer observations and carrying out other related performance marketing activities.
Contemporary global space economy is so dynamic that any one specific structural force can not explain the whole dynamic processes or trajectories of spatial industrial development. The major purpose of this paper is extending the traditional notion of industrial districts to functioning and development of new industrial districts with relation to the development of high technology industries. Several dynamic forces, which are dominated in new industrial districts in the modern space economy, are incorporated in the formation and dynamic aspects of new industrial districts. Even though key forces governing Marshallian industrial district are localization of small firms, division of labor between firms, constructive cooperation, and industrial atmosphere, Marshall points out a possibility of growing importance of large firms and non-local networks in the districts with changes of external environments. Some of Italian industrial districts can be regarded as Marshallian industrial districts in broader context, but the role of local authorities or institutions and local embeddedness seem to be more important in the Italian industrial districts. More critical implication form the review of Marshallian industrial districts and Italian industrial districts is that the industrial districts are not a static concept but a dynamic one: small firm based industrial districts can be regarded as only a specific feature evolved over time. Dynamic aspects of new industrial districts are resulting from coexistence of contrasting forces governing the functioning and formation of the districts in contemporary global space economy. The contrasting forces governing new industrial districts are coexistence of flexible and mass production systems, local and global networks, local and non-local embeddedness, and small and large firms. Because of these coexistence of contrasting forces, there are various types of new industrial districts. Nine types of industrial districts are identified based on local/non-local networks and intensity of networks in both suppliers and customers linkages. The different types of new industrial districts are described by differences in production systems, embeddedness, governance, cooperation and competition, and institutional factors. Out of nine types of industrial districts, four types - Marshallian; suppliers hub and spoke; customers hub and spoke; and satellite - are regarded as distinctive new industrial districts and four additional types - advanced hub and spoke types (suppliers and customers) and mature satellites (suppliers and customers) - can be evolved from the distinctive types and may be regarded as hybrid types. The last one - pioneering high technology industrial district - can be developed from the advanced hub and spoke types and this type is a most advanced modern industrial district in the era of globalization and high technology. The dynamic aspects of the districts are related with the coexistence of the contrasting forces in the contemporary global space economy. However, the development trajectory is not a natural one and not all the industrial districts can develop to the other hybrid types. Traditionally, localization of industries was developed by historical chances. In the process of high technology industrial development in contemporary global space economy, however, policy and strategies are critical for the formation and evolution of new industrial districts. It needs formation of supportive tissues of institutions for evolution of dyamic pattern of high technology related new industrial districts. Some of the original distinctive types of new industrial districts can not follow the path or trajectory suggested in this paper and may be declined without advancing, if there is no formation of supportive social structure or policy. Provision of information infrastructure and diffusion of an entrepreneurship through the positive supports of local government, public institutions, universities, trade associations and industry associations are important for the evolution of the dynamic new industrial districts. Reduction of sunk costs through the supports for training and retraining of skilled labor, the formation of flexible labor markets, and the establishment of cheap and available telecommunication networks is also regarded as a significant strategies for dynamic progress of new industrial districts in the era of high technology industrial development. In addition, development of intensive international networks in production, technology and information is important policy issue for formation and evolution of the new industrial districts which are related with high technology industrial development.
In this paper, the consolidation of ICT basic legislation and ICT special legislation concerning "Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning" and "Korea Communications Commission" which came on the back of governmental reorganization in recent years is discussed in the theoretical and practical aspect. Development of "data communication technology" innovatively changed the method of livelihood of mankind, the emergence of network under global dimension provided financial social benefit and posed a challenge and a threat at the same time. Form digital revolution human kind can expect to receive many important blessings. Nevertheless, there are many advantages of development of technology by digital revolution, cyberspace like online media, internet etc. has realistically many problems that must be solved. To maximum positive aspects like the expansion of freedom of expression and creating plan of economy by the advance of transmission technology is needed. And to minimize side effects of informatization is required more. The First, Special Act on ICT has an adaptation in normative standardization to be fit in media convergence beyond convergence of broadcasting and telecommunications. Henceforth, there must be established a legal basis for the achievement of protection of economic evolution and freedom of speech in digital media, information, communication technology and content development. The second, the government action is to accomplish economic development and freedom of information in structural aspect of norm. Therefore minimizing normative problem by reorganization of organization remains clearly unresolved in politics. The third, Special Act on ICT must be basic law covering info-communications field, pay telecommunication and media contents field. The forth, from a technical point of view, net neutrality, conflict of interest for digital content and so on can be fixed easily. Special Act on ICT must not only pursuit of development of industry. Special Act on ICT and pursuit of enhancing quality of life of people and preparing program to promote democratization. From now on, we need to make powerful nation of information& communications technology and in information human rights protection field got to be one step ahead of others with reference to appear all the various aspects must be brought together in the discussion of legislation process of Special Act on ICT.
The competition to capture a larger slice of the market in Mobile Communication business is increasing among companies. In order to achieve and maintain a competitive advantage in the Asian market, it is critical to continue to develop new technology. Understanding the underlying distinctive characteristics and needs of each market and the cultural backgrounds that drive those needs is a necessary focus. Companies with marketing strategies based on a correct understanding of market needs will capture dominant positions in the market. The purpose of this study is to identify those differences in user behavior and cultural tendencies among different people in different countries in the mobile telecommunication market. This research is based on an on-line survey in three countries (Korea, China, and Japan). Below are the contents of the survey on the mobile phone based on: 1) User behavior 2) Design preference 3) Purchasing behavior 4) User awareness on manufacturer brand. Through the analysis of this questionnaire it is possible to identify the differences and similarities among countries dearly. 1) Cultural trends and perceptions related to mobile phone usage were largely caused by differences in the state of technology, policies and business strategies of mobile sonics carriers and manufacturers, and national tendencies, of each country. 2) Korean and Japanese users produced similar responses to the questions related to advanced technology, whereas Korean and Chinese users responded similarly to national tendency-related questions. 3) To the questions related to business strategies of mobile service carriers and manufacturers, users in all three countries displayed markedly different responses. Once again, accurate analysis of the differences and similarities related to mobile phone usage in each country will help the companies in this industry to gain a competitive edge in the market. This study should not stop at simple comparison but be a framework for giving companies a dear future direction for technological development.
The Necessity of Cyber University. Within the rapidly changing environment of global economics, the environment of higher education in the universities, also, has been, encountering various changes. Popularization on higher education related to 1lifetime education system, putting emphasis on the productivity of education services and the acquisition of competitiveness through the market of open education, the breakdown of the ivory tower and the Multiversitization of universities, importance of obtaining information in the universities, and cooperation between domestic and oversea universities, industry and educational system must be acquired. Therefore, in order to adequately cope wi th these kinds of rapid changes in the education environment, operating Cyber University by utilizing various information technologies and its fixations such as Internet, E-mail, CD-ROMs, Interact ive Video Networks (Video Conferencing, Video on Demand), TV, Cable etc., which has no time or location limitation, is needed. Using informal ion and telecommunication technologies, especially the Internet is expected to Or ing about many changes in the social, economics and educational area. Among the many changes scholars have predicted, the development and fixations of Distant Learning or Cyber University was the most dominant factor. In the case of U. S. A., Cyber University has already been established and in under operation by the Federate Governments of 13 states. Any other universities (around 500 universities has been opened until1 now), with the help of the government and private citizens have been able to partly operate the Cyber University and is planning on enlarging step-by-step in the future. It could be seen not only as U. S. A. trying to elevate its higher education through their leading information technologies, but also could be seen as their objective in putting efforts on subordinating the culture of the education worldwide. UTRA University in U. S. A., for example, is already exporting its class lectures to China, and Indonesia regions. Influenced by the Cyber University current in the U.S., the Universities in Korea is willing .to arrange various forms of Cyber Universities. In line with this, at JUNAM National University, internet based Cyber University, which has set about its work on July of 1997, is in the state of operating about 100 Cyber Universities. Also, in the case of Hanam University, the Distant Learning classes are at its final stage of being established; this is a link in the rapid speed project of setting an example by the Korean Government. In addition, the department of education has selected 5 universities, including Seoul Cyber Design University for experimentation and is in the stage of strategic operation. Over 100 universities in Korea are speeding up its preparation for operating Cyber University. This form of Distant Learning goes beyond the walls of universities and is in the trend of being diffused in business areas or in various training programs of financial organizations and more. Here, in the hope that this material would some what be of help to other Universities which are preparing for Cyber University, I would 1ike to introduce some general concepts of the components forming Cyber University and Open Education System which has been established by JUNAM University. System of Cyber University could be seen as a general solution offered by tile computer technologies for the management on the students, Lectures On Demand, real hour based and satellite classes, media product ion lab for the production of the multimedia Contents, electronic library, the Groupware enabling exchange of information between students and professors. Arranging general concepts of components in the aspect of Cyber University and Open Education, it would be expressed in the form of the establishment of Cyber University and the service of Open Education as can be seen in the diagram below.
Digital Convergence means integration between industry, technology, and contents, and in marketing, it usually comes with creation of new types of product and service under the base of digital technology as digitalization progress in electro-communication industries including telecommunication, home appliance, and computer industries. One can see digital convergence not only in instruments such as PC, AV appliances, cellular phone, but also in contents, network, service that are required in production, modification, distribution, re-production of information. Convergence in contents started around 1990. Convergence in network and service begins as broadcasting and telecommunication integrates and DMB(digital multimedia broadcasting), born in May, 2005 is the symbolic icon in this trend. There are some positive and negative expectations about DMB. The reason why two opposite expectations exist is that DMB does not come out from customer's need but from technology development. Therefore, customers might have hard time to interpret the real meaning of DMB. Time is quite critical to a high tech product, like DMB because another product with same function from different technology can replace the existing product within short period of time. If DMB does not positioning well to customer's mind quickly, another products like Wibro, IPTV, or HSPDA could replace it before it even spreads out. Therefore, positioning strategy is critical for success of DMB product. To make correct positioning strategy, one needs to understand how consumer interprets DMB and how consumer's interpretation can be changed via communication strategy. In this study, we try to investigate how consumer perceives a new product, like DMB and how AD strategy change consumer's perception. More specifically, the paper segment consumers into sub-groups based on their DMB perceptions and compare their characteristics in order to understand how they perceive DMB. And, expose them different printed ADs that have messages guiding consumer think DMB in specific ways, either cellular phone or personal TV. Research Question 1: Segment consumers according to perceptions about DMB and compare characteristics of segmentations. Research Question 2: Compare perceptions about DMB after AD that induces categorization of DMB in direction for each segment. If one understand and predict a direction in which consumer perceive a new product, firm can select target customers easily. We segment consumers according to their perception and analyze characteristics in order to find some variables that can influence perceptions, like prior experience, usage, or habit. And then, marketing people can use this variables to identify target customers and predict their perceptions. If one knows how customer's perception is changed via AD message, communication strategy could be constructed properly. Specially, information from segmented customers helps to develop efficient AD strategy for segment who has prior perception. Research framework consists of two measurements and one treatment, O1 X O2. First observation is for collecting information about consumer's perception and their characteristics. Based on first observation, the paper segment consumers into two groups, one group perceives DMB similar to Cellular phone and the other group perceives DMB similar to TV. And compare characteristics of two segments in order to find reason why they perceive DMB differently. Next, we expose two kinds of AD to subjects. One AD describes DMB as Cellular phone and the other Ad describes DMB as personal TV. When two ADs are exposed to subjects, consumers don't know their prior perception of DMB, in other words, which subject belongs 'similar-to-Cellular phone' segment or 'similar-to-TV' segment? However, we analyze the AD's effect differently for each segment. In research design, final observation is for investigating AD effect. Perception before AD is compared with perception after AD. Comparisons are made for each segment and for each AD. For the segment who perceives DMB similar to TV, AD that describes DMB as cellular phone could change the prior perception. And AD that describes DMB as personal TV, could enforce the prior perception. For data collection, subjects are selected from undergraduate students because they have basic knowledge about most digital equipments and have open attitude about a new product and media. Total number of subjects is 240. In order to measure perception about DMB, we use indirect measurement, comparison with other similar digital products. To select similar digital products, we pre-survey students and then finally select PDA, Car-TV, Cellular Phone, MP3 player, TV, and PSP. Quasi experiment is done at several classes under instructor's allowance. After brief introduction, prior knowledge, awareness, and usage about DMB as well as other digital instruments is asked and their similarities and perceived characteristics are measured. And then, two kinds of manipulated color-printed AD are distributed and similarities and perceived characteristics for DMB are re-measured. Finally purchase intension, AD attitude, manipulation check, and demographic variables are asked. Subjects are given small gift for participation. Stimuli are color-printed advertising. Their actual size is A4 and made after several pre-test from AD professionals and students. As results, consumers are segmented into two subgroups based on their perceptions of DMB. Similarity measure between DMB and cellular phone and similarity measure between DMB and TV are used to classify consumers. If subject whose first measure is less than the second measure, she is classified into segment A and segment A is characterized as they perceive DMB like TV. Otherwise, they are classified as segment B, who perceives DMB like cellular phone. Discriminant analysis on these groups with their characteristics of usage and attitude shows that Segment A knows much about DMB and uses a lot of digital instrument. Segment B, who thinks DMB as cellular phone doesn't know well about DMB and not familiar with other digital instruments. So, consumers with higher knowledge perceive DMB similar to TV because launching DMB advertising lead consumer think DMB as TV. Consumers with less interest on digital products don't know well about DMB AD and then think DMB as cellular phone. In order to investigate perceptions of DMB as well as other digital instruments, we apply Proxscal analysis, Multidimensional Scaling technique at SPSS statistical package. At first step, subjects are presented 21 pairs of 7 digital instruments and evaluate similarity judgments on 7 point scale. And for each segment, their similarity judgments are averaged and similarity matrix is made. Secondly, Proxscal analysis of segment A and B are done. At third stage, get similarity judgment between DMB and other digital instruments after AD exposure. Lastly, similarity judgments of group A-1, A-2, B-1, and B-2 are named as 'after DMB' and put them into matrix made at the first stage. Then apply Proxscal analysis on these matrixes and check the positional difference of DMB and after DMB. The results show that map of segment A, who perceives DMB similar as TV, shows that DMB position closer to TV than to Cellular phone as expected. Map of segment B, who perceive DMB similar as cellular phone shows that DMB position closer to Cellular phone than to TV as expected. Stress value and R-square is acceptable. And, change results after stimuli, manipulated Advertising show that AD makes DMB perception bent toward Cellular phone when Cellular phone-like AD is exposed, and that DMB positioning move towards Car-TV which is more personalized one when TV-like AD is exposed. It is true for both segment, A and B, consistently. Furthermore, the paper apply correspondence analysis to the same data and find almost the same results. The paper answers two main research questions. The first one is that perception about a new product is made mainly from prior experience. And the second one is that AD is effective in changing and enforcing perception. In addition to above, we extend perception change to purchase intention. Purchase intention is high when AD enforces original perception. AD that shows DMB like TV makes worst intention. This paper has limitations and issues to be pursed in near future. Methodologically, current methodology can't provide statistical test on the perceptual change, since classical MDS models, like Proxscal and correspondence analysis are not probability models. So, a new probability MDS model for testing hypothesis about configuration needs to be developed. Next, advertising message needs to be developed more rigorously from theoretical and managerial perspective. Also experimental procedure could be improved for more realistic data collection. For example, web-based experiment and real product stimuli and multimedia presentation could be employed. Or, one can display products together in simulated shop. In addition, demand and social desirability threats of internal validity could influence on the results. In order to handle the threats, results of the model-intended advertising and other "pseudo" advertising could be compared. Furthermore, one can try various level of innovativeness in order to check whether it make any different results (cf. Moon 2006). In addition, if one can create hypothetical product that is really innovative and new for research, it helps to make a vacant impression status and then to study how to form impression in more rigorous way.
Artificial intelligences are changing world. Financial market is also not an exception. Robo-Advisor is actively being developed, making up the weakness of traditional asset allocation methods and replacing the parts that are difficult for the traditional methods. It makes automated investment decisions with artificial intelligence algorithms and is used with various asset allocation models such as mean-variance model, Black-Litterman model and risk parity model. Risk parity model is a typical risk-based asset allocation model which is focused on the volatility of assets. It avoids investment risk structurally. So it has stability in the management of large size fund and it has been widely used in financial field. XGBoost model is a parallel tree-boosting method. It is an optimized gradient boosting model designed to be highly efficient and flexible. It not only makes billions of examples in limited memory environments but is also very fast to learn compared to traditional boosting methods. It is frequently used in various fields of data analysis and has a lot of advantages. So in this study, we propose a new asset allocation model that combines risk parity model and XGBoost machine learning model. This model uses XGBoost to predict the risk of assets and applies the predictive risk to the process of covariance estimation. There are estimated errors between the estimation period and the actual investment period because the optimized asset allocation model estimates the proportion of investments based on historical data. these estimated errors adversely affect the optimized portfolio performance. This study aims to improve the stability and portfolio performance of the model by predicting the volatility of the next investment period and reducing estimated errors of optimized asset allocation model. As a result, it narrows the gap between theory and practice and proposes a more advanced asset allocation model. In this study, we used the Korean stock market price data for a total of 17 years from 2003 to 2019 for the empirical test of the suggested model. The data sets are specifically composed of energy, finance, IT, industrial, material, telecommunication, utility, consumer, health care and staple sectors. We accumulated the value of prediction using moving-window method by 1,000 in-sample and 20 out-of-sample, so we produced a total of 154 rebalancing back-testing results. We analyzed portfolio performance in terms of cumulative rate of return and got a lot of sample data because of long period results. Comparing with traditional risk parity model, this experiment recorded improvements in both cumulative yield and reduction of estimated errors. The total cumulative return is 45.748%, about 5% higher than that of risk parity model and also the estimated errors are reduced in 9 out of 10 industry sectors. The reduction of estimated errors increases stability of the model and makes it easy to apply in practical investment. The results of the experiment showed improvement of portfolio performance by reducing the estimated errors of the optimized asset allocation model. Many financial models and asset allocation models are limited in practical investment because of the most fundamental question of whether the past characteristics of assets will continue into the future in the changing financial market. However, this study not only takes advantage of traditional asset allocation models, but also supplements the limitations of traditional methods and increases stability by predicting the risks of assets with the latest algorithm. There are various studies on parametric estimation methods to reduce the estimated errors in the portfolio optimization. We also suggested a new method to reduce estimated errors in optimized asset allocation model using machine learning. So this study is meaningful in that it proposes an advanced artificial intelligence asset allocation model for the fast-developing financial markets.