• Ocean and Polar Research
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• v.38 no.3
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• pp.209-224
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• 2016

The purpose of this study is to analyze research activities related to Antarctic science through a bibliographic study and to understand and evaluate the implications. This study is based on 78,445 articles which were retrieved from the Science Citation Index(SCI) database during the period 1998-2015. Through a quantitative analysis and a Social Network Analysis, we made several findings and drew out the implications. First, many countries, in general, have increased multi-national research cooperation in order to enhance research productivity. However, Korea's cooperative research activity is below the average level. Second, considering the 4 centrality indexes, which are derived from the SNA, Korea had a lower score in terms of centrality indexes. Based on these findings, Korea should formulate a more dynamic or proactive strategy in order to enhance its participation in international research cooperation efforts. Korea, the 10th country to build two or more research bases in Antarctica, should make greater efforts to bring the appropriate level of the phase.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.1-28
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• 2012

This study conducted a qualitative analysis on the Korea's nuclear energy sector in 2030 through scenario-based strategic foresight method. Specifically, the relationships between environmental influencing factors of the future nuclear energy sector was examined from a multi-dimensional perspective on the basis of STEEP analysis and network analysis. In addition, scenario planning method was used with key uncertainty factors (KUF) to create three predictable strategic scenarios including optimistic, business as usual, and pessimistic. Common strategies that need to be urgently pursued as well as the maximum risk avoidance strategies for each scenario were also presented. This study further identified energy pricing, global economic trend, competitiveness in nuclear technology, and marketing capability as key uncertainty factors in the future nuclear energy industry sector. In order to furnish effective export strategy in the future nuclear energy sector, it was also suggested that government policy should adopt following measures as top priorities: securing nuclear safety technology, educating nuclear engineers, securing nuclear resources such as uranium, increasing nuclear capability and so on. The implications and limitations of this study were then discussed based on research findings.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.1 no.2
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• pp.245-261
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• 1998

This study aims to describe the overall aspects of future technologies in Korea based on the new taxonomy of technology foresight ; Theme, Area and Paradigm. This taxonomy is designed to overcome and supplement several studies on technology foresights which are judged not to capture the whole aspects of future technologies. Future technologies in Korea will be influenced by the Information and Communication Technology Paradigm over 20-30 years, and by the Biotechnology Paradigm after that period. Expansion of researches in electronics, information and communication is noticeable features in engineering. The application of biotechnology technique and health/environment technologies are emerging in bioscience area. Also there appear new areas related to the trends of engineering and bioscience in natural science. Current research patterns focusing physics, chemistry and engineering in Korea should be changed to those of the advanced countries which emphasize bioscience. Time lag to the world frontier is over 5-6 years, but the lag is expected to be reduced. The shortage of manpower and research funds are pointed as the biggest barrier for the realization of future technologies.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.29-48
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• 2012

As the complexity and uncertainty of social and economic systems increase, the strategic foresight that actively and effectively responds to the environmental changes becomes important. A wide range of future forecasting methods are available for strategic foresight. Selecting one of the methods depends on several factors such as availability of time and financial resources and the objectives of the exercise. Although trend extrapolation analysis has been used for many years, scenario planning is being widely used by government and corporate as a tool for strategic decision making in recent years. Generally, scenario planning is carried out through workshop, in which experts with diverse backgrounds exchange information, views, and insights and integrate the diverse viewpoints. However, only a small number of experts can participate in a workshop and citizen opinion is not easily transformed into the policy for the scenario exercise due to the limitation of budget and short duration of a project. It is also much harder to develop creative ideas in the workshop because of the limited time and space. In this study, a new scenario process combining scenario workshop and wiki is proposed to overcome the limitation of scenario workshop. This combined approach can be more productive than using scenario workshop alone when developing new ideas. In this study, we applied the combined approach to develop scenarios for the strategic foresight of future media and present suggestions for improving the process.

• Proceedings of the Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference
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• 2010.05a
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• pp.24-40
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• 2010

탄소배출에 대한 글로벌 규제 확대는 새로운 산업규제와 무역장벽을 가져오고 있으며, 세계 각국은 재생에너지 개발, 에너지 효율 증대, 환경 개선 등을 동시에 추구하는 녹색투자를 통해 경기부양을 도모하고 있다. 한국 정부는 이러한 환경변화 속에 녹색투자를 통한 새로운 성장기회를 모색하고 있으며, 기업은 저탄소 친환경구조로의 전환을 생존의 문제로 직면하게 되었다. 이는 산업구조의 변화와 전환을 가져올 뿐만 아니라, 인력 구성의 변화와 요구숙련의 변화를 요구한다. 이러한 녹색경제로의 전환에서, 미래 숙련수요에 대응한 인력양성은 녹색경제의 전환에 대한 대응으로서 뿐만 아니라 녹색성장을 견인하는 추동력이 된다. 본 연구는 자동차산업을 중심으로 미래 숙련 수요에 따른 인력양성 방안을 모색한다. 그린카 관련한 미래 숙련 수요에 대해 현 대학교과상의 문제점을 살펴보며 이에 대한 개선방안을 모색하기로 한다. 이를 통해 녹색성장에서 그린카 이외의 타 부문에서의 미래 숙련 수요에 대응한 인력양성 방안을 마련하는 방법론의 개선을 도모한다.

• STI Policy Review
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.135-161
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• 2013

This paper examines Japan's Science and Technology (S&T) Basic Plans in accordance with its S&T Basic Law. The Basic Plans promote two major innovation (Green Innovation and Life Innovation) towards the creation of new markets and jobs, specifically under the Fourth S&T Basic Plan enacted on August 2011. Successful smart community demonstration projects at four urban localities were launched under plans to promote Green Innovation research and development of renewable energy technologies. However, the expectation that renewable energy such as solar or wind power can replace nuclear power is not backed by sufficient evidence. Furthermore, the electricity produced by these sources is expensive and unstable owing to its reliance on weather conditions. The Fukushima nuclear power plant accident on March 2011 has also seriously affected Japan's future energy plans. According to a government estimate, electricity charges would double if nuclear power generation were abandoned, imposing a heavy burden on the Japanese economy. Japan is in need of energy policies designed on the basis of more far-sighted initiatives.

• Proceedings of the Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference
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• 2017.11a
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• pp.1565-1579
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• 2017

본 연구에서는 과학기술기반 미래전략연구의 세대별 특징을 기준으로 우리나라 정부의 과학기술 주무부처에서 발표한 과학기술기반 미래전략 보고서 및 특징을 검토하였다. 비교분석한 결과 우리나라 과학기술기반 미래전략 연구의 내용은 초기부터 선진국의 그것과 유사한 형태로 진행되었지만, 수행체계는 엘리트 중심으로 국민을 계몽하는 문화로 남아있음을 알 수 있었다. 아울러 최근 과학기술기반 미래전략에서 국가가 주도하여 경제를 발전시키는 패러다임이 점차 약화되는 경향성이 두드러지는 트렌드와 함께, 과거에 비하여 과학기술기반 미래전략 연구의 실행력이 낮아지는 추세를 확인할 수 있었다. 이처럼 최근 과학기술기반 미래전략에서 나타나는 한계점을 극복하기 위해, 과학기술기반 미래전략 연구가 집행실효성을 담보해주는 정책도구로 변신해야함을 피력하였다.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.123-129
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• 2016

Through two case studies on the United States and Japan, this research aims to identify the characteristics of disaster management research and thereby provides policy implications for Korea. This paper analyzed government-funded disaster management R&D for each country: the National Science Foundation awarded projects from 2005 to 2015 for the United States, and Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research from 2011 to 2015 managed by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science for Japan. As a result, four following implications were drawn. 1) pursuit of R&SD(Research & Solution Development) instead of R&D, 2) shift from prevention to life-cycle management, 3) necessity of multidisciplinary research, and 4) emphasis on post-disaster investigation.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.130-155
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• 2013

As a society of knowledge and information has been developed rapidly, because of changing from web environment to ubiquitous environment, a lot of countries across the world as well as S. Korea have come to search out new technology policy with spatial information system for smart society as ubiquitous spatial information society. So this research focused on the strategy consulting of new technology policy of S. Korea with spatial information system analysed by the application of 'scenario planning' as a foresight method. And as a consequence, the strategy formulation of new technology policy for the future S. Korea is to set up the spatial information technology policy with platform.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.1460-1470
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• 2015

This paper presents an approach to solve the long-term generation expansion planning problem of the restructured electricity industry using an agent-based environment. The proposed model simulates the generation investment decisions taken by a particular agent (i.e. a generating company) in a market environment taking into account its competitors’ strategic investment. The investment decision of a particular company is modeled taking into account that such company has imperfect foresight on the future system development hence electricity prices. The delay in the construction of new plants is also explicitly modeled, in order to compute accurately the yearly revenues of each agent. On top of a conventional energy market, several capacity incentive mechanisms including capacity payment and capacity market are simulated, so as to assess their impact on the investment promotion for generation expansion. Results provide insight on the investment cycles as well as dynamic system behavior of long-term generation expansion planning in a competitive electricity industry.