• 기술혁신학회지
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• 제5권1호
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• pp.110-126
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• 2002

This study reviews and compares the selection procedures for science and technology topics to predict mid- and long-term trends in science and technology development in Korea, Japan, and the United Kingdom. It then identifies science and technology topics and future technologies for the third science and technology foresight of Korea. In Japan and the United Kingdom, non-technological topics that reflect socioeconomic needs are also select-ed along with technological ones. This study provides the following policy implications to enhance reliability and effectiveness of the third science and technology foresight of Korea. First, selection of science and technology topics should coincide with the national goal, taking into account development trends in science and technology and socioeconomic needs. Second, the current prediction methodologies such as "delphi" do not fully consider future uncertainties in science and technology development. A scenario method is, for example, needed to present coherent pictures of alternative futures. finally, the third technology foresight should select and include topics that reflect domestic conditions and global trend in technological progress. This study suggests 117 topics for the third science and technology foresight.foresight.

• 기술혁신연구
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.1-30
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• 2000

This paper compares technology foresight activities of Japan, Germany, Britain, France, Australia, and the Netherlands with those of Korea in terms of their motives and purposes, procedures and methods, and utilization of foresight results. From the comparison, it has been found that although the foresight programs were started from similar motives and purposes, different approaches were adopted from one another depending on the characteristics of national innovation systems, national S&T policy directions, and level of science and technology capabilities of the countries. On the basis of the lessons drawn from our study, some recommendations are made for future foresight activities in Korea: clarifying purposes of foresight activities, preparing utilization strategy at the planning stage, promoting participants' learning and methodological elaboration, and so forth. Implications for policy makers are also discussed.

• 경영과학
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• 제28권3호
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• pp.143-159
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• 2011

Recently, the level of uncertainty in R&D investment for an enterprise has increased due to technological development and industrial changes. Accordingly it is necessary for an enterprise to forecast the future or foresight the future technologies. But, the fact that the methodology used in predicting future technology is suitable for large project makes enterprise difficult to forecast the future technologies or trends. Thus, this study seeks for available methodology for future technology foresight from enterprise standpoint. The methodology proposed in this research is based on the scenario model, especially focused on the customer needs and future society change.

• STI Policy Review
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.49-74
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• 2017

What are some of the explanations for cross-national diversity of foresight performance among technological followers? Why are some countries more successful than others in learning how to develop national innovation system foresight? This paper argues that the answers are linked to organizational capacities at three different levels: governmental, policy network and social learning. To corroborate this argument, the paper chose Iran and Korea as benchmarking partners, and attempts to find out what makes Iran a slow learner in building innovation system foresight. The conceptual model is an improved model of Saritas's, by integrating Borras' and Andersen's conceptions and classifications. The data are collected from comprehensive interviews in both countries and second-hand data of international indexes. The paper, finally, concludes that it is the weakness of analytical-systemic capacity that impedes and delays the emergence of systemic foresight in Iran, and that this weakness stems from the adverse impacts of the dominant institutions, surrounding the innovation system. The final point is that it is not sufficient for Iran to learn the methods and techniques of foresight from Korea. It should learn how to open its macro-policy towards the global market and design appropriate industrial strategy in a coherent policy-strategy portfolio.

• STI Policy Review
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• 제6권2호
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• pp.24-53
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• 2015

Foresight, a major methodological tool in the STI policy toolbox, has recently featured new directions in methodological development, becoming influenced by progress in information and communication technologies and online tools. However, no overview of these directions has been available so far. Based on a literature review, an interactive workshop, and an international expert survey as well as expert interviews, the research presented here attempts to shed light onto some of the relevant issues by providing a structured overview of recent changes in order to further the debate on the future directions of methodological development in foresight. The paper outlines four clusters of emerging approaches in foresight:Integrated qualitative and quantitative approaches, IT-based and automated foresight, experiential foresight including new forms of communication and interaction such as visualization and gaming, and open and crowd-sourced approaches. The benefits and challenges of the approaches known so far are categorized and summarized, and areas of potential use for each of the clusters in STI contexts are identified.

• 한국전자거래학회지
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• 제11권1호
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• pp.69-89
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• 2006

과학기술의 발달과 산업의 변화에 따라 미래에 대한 연구가 중요시 여겨지고 있다. 그리고, 유비쿼터스 환경과 스마트 환경의 도래에 따라 어떠한 기술이 중요한지, 어떤 핵심기술이 발전할 것인지. 미래의 변화모습은 어떠한지 등에 대한 미래예측이나 미래기술에 대한 예측이 필요한 실정이다. 이미 각 국에서는 국가차원에서 과학기술 전분야에 걸처 기술예측 활동을 추진해오고 있으나, 민간부문에서는 많은 시간과 비용이 소요되고 단기간에 성과를 내기가 힘들기 때문에 미래기술의 예측 활동을 추진하기가 쉽지 않은 것이 현실이다. 또한, 대부분의 미래기술의 예측 방법들이 국가 차원의 대규모프로젝트에 적합하게 개발되어져 있어서 기업의 기술예측 활동에 별로 도움이 되지 못하고 있다. 이에 따라 본 연구에서는 기업입장에서 활용하기에 용이한 기술예측 방법론을 개발하였으며, 제안된 방법론에 따라 직접 예측활동을 수행하고 사레로써 제시하고자 한다. 제시된 방법론은 FAR, Furture Wheel, 시나리오 기법등을 기초로 하여 개발되어졌으며, 미래기술의 수요자인 고객을 중심으로 방법론을 전개한다

• 한국콘텐츠학회논문지
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• 제17권4호
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• pp.229-236
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• 2017

기술예측은 전략적 연구개발 분야 및 미래 유망기술도출을 위해 장기적인 과학, 기술, 경제, 사회현상을 조사하기 위한 과정이다. 본 연구에서는 미래 기술예측의 효과적 추진을 위해, 새로운 연구방법론으로 인간사회에서의 공간과 행위, 사람의 육감을 기준으로 기술을 분류하는 FSS(Future Six Senses) 프레임 워크를 체계적으로 적용하였다. 또한 미래 기술의 수용성과 예측성, 참신성을 높이기 위해, 새로운 형태인 인간의 6감각을 기반으로 한 정보통신(ICT)분야 미래 메가트랜드 분석, 미래기술 발굴 및 선정, 미래시나리오 작성 프로세스를 통해 미래사회 주요 이슈 및 수요기반의 제품 및 서비스를 도출하였다.

• 한국디지털건축인테리어학회논문집
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• 제12권2호
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• pp.53-60
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• 2012

In this paper, we present new methods for identifying keywords for foresight topics that utilize the internet and textmining techniques to draw objective and quantified information that support experts' qualitative opinions and evaluations in foresight. Furthermore, by applying this fabricated procedure, we have derived keywords to analyze priorities in architectural engineering. Not much difference between qualitative methods of experts and quantitative methods such as text mining has been observed from comparison between technologies derived via qualitative method from "The Science Technology Vision" (control group). Therefore, as a quantitative tool useful for drawing keywords for foresight, textmining can supplement quantitative analysis by experts. In addition, depending on the level and type of raw data, text mining can bring better results in deriving foresight keywords. For this reason, research activities accommodating Internet search results and the development of textmining methods for analyzing current trends are in demand.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• 제37권4호
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• pp.369-383
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• 2015

The purpose of this study is to ascertain the demands for developing marine science technology to reduce fatalities caused by marine accidents. For this purpose, we analyzed the contents of about 77,000 news articles posted for a month after the tragedy of the Sewol (April 16~May 15) to identify keywords and then we used the Social Network Analysis (SNA) for each keyword. The findings of the analysis show that there are five networks and that each one reveals different aspects about technology development to prepare for marine accidents. Based on these findings, we categorized three kinds of demands for technology development from the perspective of marine science technology: provision of the information about the marine environment, development of equipment and technology to overcome extreme environments, and the establishment of a field support system.

• 과학기술정책
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• 제5권10호통권79호
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• pp.23-27
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• 1995