• 과학기술학연구
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• 제7권1호
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• pp.5-31
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• 2007

추격형 기술개발과정에서는 개발해야 할 기술이 이미 존재하고 있기 때문에 기술개발의 불확실성은 상대적으로 낮았다. 그 기술이 개발가능하다는 것, 그리고 특정의 설계 방식을 갖추어야 한다는 것을 알 수 있었기 때문이다. 그러나 탈(脫)추격 단계에서의 기술혁신은 많은 경우 모방할 대상이 없으며, 또 그 기술이 개발 가능한 것인지도 사전적으로 알기 어렵다. 따라서 탈(脫)추격 단계에서 기술혁신을 성공적으로 수행하기 위해서는 불확실성에 대한 새로운 접근 방식이 필요하다. 이 글에서는 탈(脫)추격 단계에서 나타나는 기술 경제적 불확실성 관리의 핵심을 기술적 불확실성에 대한 대응과 정당성 확보라는 요소로 정리하고, 대응방안을 모색하는 개념적 틀을 제시하고자 한다.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제35권1호
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• pp.64-79
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• 2003

In the risk and reliability analysis of complex technological systems, the primary concern of formal uncertainty analysis is to understand why uncertainties arise, and to evaluate how they impact the results of the analysis. In recent times, many of the uncertainty analyses have focused on parameters of the risk and reliability analysis models, whose values are uncertain in an aleatory or an epistemic way. As the field of parametric uncertainty analysis matures, however, more attention is being paid to the explicit treatment of uncertainties that are addressed in the predictive model itself as well as the accuracy of the predictive model. The essential steps for evaluating impacts of these model uncertainties in the presence of parameter uncertainties are to determine rigorously various sources of uncertainties to be addressed in an underlying model itself and in turn model parameters, based on our state-of-knowledge and relevant evidence. Answering clearly the question of how to characterize and treat explicitly the forgoing different sources of uncertainty is particularly important for practical aspects such as risk and reliability optimization of systems as well as more transparent risk information and decision-making under various uncertainties. The main purpose of this paper is to provide practical guidance for quantitatively treating various model uncertainties that would often be encountered in the risk and reliability modeling process of complex technological systems.

• Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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• 제9권2호
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• pp.133-144
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• 2020

Korean economy has experienced a very rapid growth largely due to the change of the innovation system since the last half century. The recent outbreak of COVID-19 impacts the global economy as well as Korea's innovation system. In order to understand the influence of the shock to the Korean technological system, we have forecast the future of the system combining qualitative and quantitative techniques such as expert panel, cross impact analysis, and scenario planning. According to the results, we have identified 39 driving forces influencing the change of Korea's technological innovation system. Four scenarios have been suggested based on the predetermined factors and core uncertainties. In other words, uncertainties of emergence of the regions and global value chains generate four scenarios: regional growth, unstable hope, returning to the past, and regional conflicts. The 'regional growth' scenario is regarded as the most preferable, whereas the 'regional conflicts' scenario is unavoidable. In conclusion, we put forward some policy implications to boost the regional innovation system by exploiting the weakened global value chains in order to move on to the most preferable scenario away from the return to the past regime.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 제어로봇시스템학회 2001년도 ICCAS
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• pp.109.1-109
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• 2001

This paper deals with the path following problem of car-like intelligent mobile robot. A robust sliding mode control law based on time-varying state feedback is performed via Lyapunov method for path tracking of nonholonomic mobile robot with uncertainties. At first, A sliding control law is designed by combing the natural algebraic structure of the chained form system with ideas from sliding mode theory. Then, a robust control law is proposed to impose robustness against bounded uncertainties in path tracking. The problem of estimating the asymptotic stability region and the sliding domain of uncertain sliding mode system with bounded control input is also discussed. The proposed sliding mode control law can ensure the global reaching condition of the uncertain control system.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 1th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.980-985
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• 2005

Since the 1980s, Build-Operate-Transfer and its variations have become a common approach to develop large-scale infrastructure projects. Despite the slight variations in contractual settings, the key issue for all parties concerned is to assess the risks and uncertainties inherent in a project. The risk factors studied and highlighted by past researchers are very diverse. This paper starts with an objective to compare the risk factors in different sectors of infrastructure, and then categorize them into two kinds: general and specific. Following this classification, risk mitigation strategies should be adopted differently at the corporate and project levels. A few short cases have also been used to illustrate the flexible measures or "options" that some project participants have designed to address risks and uncertainties at the two levels.

• International Journal of Control, Automation, and Systems
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• 제6권3호
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• pp.306-319
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• 2008

Reaching fault tolerance in technological systems requires to detect malfunctions. This paper presents a diagnostic method that is robust with respect to unknown-but-bounded uncertainties of the dynamical model and the measurements. By using models of the faultless and the faulty behaviours, a state-set observer computes polyhedral sets from which the consistency of the models with the interval measurements is determined. The diagnostic result is proven to be complete, i.e., the set of faults obtained by the diagnostic algorithm includes the actual fault. The algorithm is illustrated by an application example.

• ETRI Journal
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• 제39권2호
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• pp.173-180
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• 2017

Multimodal medical image fusion is the process of retrieving valuable information from medical images. The primary goal of medical image fusion is to combine several images obtained from various sources into a distinct image suitable for improved diagnosis. Complexity in medical images is higher, and many soft computing methods are applied by researchers to process them. Intuitionistic fuzzy sets are more appropriate for medical images because the images have many uncertainties. In this paper, a new method, based on Sugeno's intuitionistic fuzzy set (SIFS), is proposed. First, medical images are converted into Sugeno's intuitionistic fuzzy image (SIFI). An exponential intuitionistic fuzzy entropy calculates the optimum values of membership, non-membership, and hesitation degree functions. Then, the two SIFIs are disintegrated into image blocks for calculating the count of blackness and whiteness of the blocks. Finally, the fused image is rebuilt from the recombination of SIFI image blocks. The efficiency of the use of SIFS in multimodal medical image fusion is demonstrated on several pairs of images and the results are compared with existing studies in recent literature.

• 기술경영경제학회:학술대회논문집
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• 기술경영경제학회 2004년도 제24회 동계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.108-131
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• 2004

Having the characteristics of public goods, Radio Spectrum had been controlled by Government Authorities. In the past, technological side of spectrum, such as cross protection, was the main concern, but as the telecommunication industry is developing gradually, economic side of spectrum is becoming an important part. To uplift the Economic efficiency of spectrum management policy, clarifying the basic value of spectrum is one of the most important things. Also, both government authorities and spectrum licensees will have to choose license or investment under uncertainties such as license timing, time to market, technology standard, and so on. Considering all things, this paper gives the value to the spectrum by real options theory, which is a powerful method concerning uncertainty, especially for government, And we applied it to a specific spectrum band for the portable Internet in Korea. These results can provide information about the technological standard, optimal market-entry time as well as the value of spectrum for the portable Internet.

• 기술혁신연구
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• 제12권3호
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• pp.135-157
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• 2004

As the speed of technological changes increase with the investment requirements steadily expanding, private firms and government-funded research institutes experience similar pressures with respect to the necessity of risk reduction and technological alliances in R&D activities. This paper first attempts to review previous research in managing R&D projects with large, risky, and long-term investment requirements. Our primary focus is placed on the "fuzzy front-end" (FFE) projects with uncertainties at the investigation and planning stages. We analyze various elements that create FFE conditions, classify them into basic constructs, and suggest tools and methods to deal with FFE conditions. The findings suggest that both initial FFE conditions and the effectiveness of FFE management affect the performance of the project later on, and thus, especially for large projects, we must deal with FFE seriously in a comprehensive manner. We utilize in-depth panel interviews and case studies to approach the research questions.

• 전자통신동향분석
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• 제39권2호
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• pp.93-102
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• 2024

As the scale of research and development (R&D) increases, countries and companies are consistently establishing R&D directions to meet strategic goals and market demands as well as roadmaps to increase efficiency through concentration and selection. However, establishing an effective roadmap and discovering promising technologies are challenging under the current numerous technological possibilities and uncertainties. The importance of discovering promising technologies to secure future technological competitiveness is recognized worldwide, and Europe, the United States, and Japan are establishing processes to identify promising future technologies and support related R&D. Methods for discovering promising future technologies can be classified into future social needs analysis, forecasting, surveys, use of expert opinions, and data analysis. We describe the types and limitations of technology roadmaps and investigate the status of domestic and foreign organizations using weak signal search through quantitative data analysis.