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A Data-based Sales Forecasting Support System for New Businesses (데이터기반의 신규 사업 매출추정방법 연구: 지능형 사업평가 시스템을 중심으로)

  • Jun, Seung-Pyo;Sung, Tae-Eung;Choi, San
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.1-22
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    • 2017
  • Analysis of future business or investment opportunities, such as business feasibility analysis and company or technology valuation, necessitate objective estimation on the relevant market and expected sales. While there are various ways to classify the estimation methods of these new sales or market size, they can be broadly divided into top-down and bottom-up approaches by benchmark references. Both methods, however, require a lot of resources and time. Therefore, we propose a data-based intelligent demand forecasting system to support evaluation of new business. This study focuses on analogical forecasting, one of the traditional quantitative forecasting methods, to develop sales forecasting intelligence systems for new businesses. Instead of simply estimating sales for a few years, we hereby propose a method of estimating the sales of new businesses by using the initial sales and the sales growth rate of similar companies. To demonstrate the appropriateness of this method, it is examined whether the sales performance of recently established companies in the same industry category in Korea can be utilized as a reference variable for the analogical forecasting. In this study, we examined whether the phenomenon of "mean reversion" was observed in the sales of start-up companies in order to identify errors in estimating sales of new businesses based on industry sales growth rate and whether the differences in business environment resulting from the different timing of business launch affects growth rate. We also conducted analyses of variance (ANOVA) and latent growth model (LGM) to identify differences in sales growth rates by industry category. Based on the results, we proposed industry-specific range and linear forecasting models. This study analyzed the sales of only 150,000 start-up companies in Korea in the last 10 years, and identified that the average growth rate of start-ups in Korea is higher than the industry average in the first few years, but it shortly shows the phenomenon of mean-reversion. In addition, although the start-up founding juncture affects the sales growth rate, it is not high significantly and the sales growth rate can be different according to the industry classification. Utilizing both this phenomenon and the performance of start-up companies in relevant industries, we have proposed two models of new business sales based on the sales growth rate. The method proposed in this study makes it possible to objectively and quickly estimate the sales of new business by industry, and it is expected to provide reference information to judge whether sales estimated by other methods (top-down/bottom-up approach) pass the bounds from ordinary cases in relevant industry. In particular, the results of this study can be practically used as useful reference information for business feasibility analysis or technical valuation for entering new business. When using the existing top-down method, it can be used to set the range of market size or market share. As well, when using the bottom-up method, the estimation period may be set in accordance of the mean reverting period information for the growth rate. The two models proposed in this study will enable rapid and objective sales estimation of new businesses, and are expected to improve the efficiency of business feasibility analysis and technology valuation process by developing intelligent information system. In academic perspectives, it is a very important discovery that the phenomenon of 'mean reversion' is found among start-up companies out of general small-and-medium enterprises (SMEs) as well as stable companies such as listed companies. In particular, there exists the significance of this study in that over the large-scale data the mean reverting phenomenon of the start-up firms' sales growth rate is different from that of the listed companies, and that there is a difference in each industry. If a linear model, which is useful for estimating the sales of a specific company, is highly likely to be utilized in practical aspects, it can be explained that the range model, which can be used for the estimation method of the sales of the unspecified firms, is highly likely to be used in political aspects. It implies that when analyzing the business activities and performance of a specific industry group or enterprise group there is political usability in that the range model enables to provide references and compare them by data based start-up sales forecasting system.

Social division of labor in the traditional industry district - foursed on Damyang bamboo ware industry of Damyang and Yeoju pottery industry of Yeoju, South Korea (우리나라 재래공업 산지의 사회적 분업 - 담양죽제품과 여주 도자기 산지를 사례로 -)

  • ;;;Park, Yang-Choon;Lee, Chul-Woo;Park, Soon-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.269-295
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    • 1995
  • This research is concerned with the social division of labor within the traditional industry district: Damyang bamboo ware industry district and Yeoju pottery industry district in South Korea, Damyang bamboo ware and Yeoju pottery are well known of the Korean traditional industry. The social division of labor in an industry district is considered as an important factor. The social division of labor helps the traditional industry to survive today. This summary shows five significant points from the major findings. First, Damyang bamoo ware industry and Yoeju pottery industry have experienced the growth stages until 1945, the stagnation in the 1960s, and the business recovery in the 1980s. Most Korean traditional industries had been radically declined under the Japanese colonization; while, Damyang bamboo ware industry and Yeoju pottery industry district have been developed during above all stages. The extended market to Japan helped the local government to establish a training center, and to provide financial aids and technical aids to crafts men. During the 1960s and 1970s, mass production of substitute goods on factory system resulted in the decrease of demand of bamboo ware and pettery. During the 1980s, these industries have slowly recovered as a result of the increased income per capita. The high rate of economic growth in the 1960s and 1970s was playing an important role in the emerging the incleased demand of the bamboo ware and pottery. Second the production-and-marketing system in a traditional industry district became diversified to adjust the demand of products. In Damyang bamboo ware industry district, the level of social division of labor was low until the high economic development period. Bamboo ware were made by a farmer in a small domestic system, The bamboo goods were mainly sold in the periodic market of bamboo ware in Damyang. In the recession period in the 1960s and 1970s, the production-and-marketing system were diversified; a manufacturing-wholesale type business and small-factory type business became established; and the wholesale business and the export traders in the district appeared. In the recovery period in the 1980s, the production-and-marketing systems were more diversified; a small-factory type business started to depend On subcontractors for a part of process of production; and a wholesale business in the district engaged in production of bamboo ware. In Yeoju pottery industry district, the social division of labor was limited until the early 1970s. A pottery was made by a crafts man in a small-business of domestic system and sold by a middle man out of Yeoju. Since the late 1970s, production-and-marketing system become being diversified as a result of the increased demand in Japan and South Korea. In the 1970s, Korean traditional craft pottery was highiy demanded in Japan. The demand encouraged people in Yoeju to become craftsmen and/or to work in the pottery related occupation. In South Korea, the rapid economic growth resulted in incline to pottery due to the development of stainless and plastic bowls and dishes. The production facilities were modernized to provide pottery at the reasonable price. A small-busineas of domestic system was transformed into a small-factory type business. The social division of labor was intensified in the pottery production-and-maketing system. The manufacturing kaoline began to be seperated from the production process of pottery. Within the district, a pottery wholesale business and a retail business started to be established in the 1980s. Third the traditional industry district was divided into "completed one" and "not-completed one" according to whether or not the district firms led the function of the social division of labor. The Damyang bamboo ware industry district is "completed one": the firm within the district is in charge of the supply of raw material, the production and the marketing. In the Damyang bamboo ware district, the social division of labor w and reorganized labor system to improve the external economics effect through intensifying the social division of labor. Lastly, the social division of labor was playing an important role in the development of traditional industry districts. The subdivision of production process and the diversification of business reduced the production cost and overcame the labor shortage through hiring low-waged workers such as family members, the old people and housewives. An enterpriser with small amount of capital easily joined into the business. The risk from business recession were dispersed. The accumulated know-how in the production and maketing provided flexiblility to produce various goods and to extend the life-cycly of a product.d the life-cycly of a product.

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Considerable Aspects for Technical and Vocational Training in Forestry (임업기술(林業技術) 및 직업훈련(職業訓練)에 고려(考慮)되어야 할 사항(事項))

  • Ma, Sang Kyu
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.51 no.1
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    • pp.56-65
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    • 1981
  • The training of forest ranger level and forest worker level to push the sound forest management and to increase the employment effects in forestry will be done without delay as soon as possible. So several opinions to be considered are here discussed. 1. The ranger level will be at first completely trained with the technics developed and modernized, to process really the sound forest management based on the concept of ecological and economical technic. 2. The organization of vocational training and it's systematical training method will be newly adopted to increase the labour efficiency in forestry. The case of fulltime worker level should be more intensively trained and part-time worker or forest famer level should be trained by the forest ranger and skilled worker with visiting circularly their working place. And the daily employed workers and village people for working should be done by the skilled workers. 3. The training subjects for them at the beginning step will be exploited by the instructors and concerned experts with studying their current conditions. Their practical training is more reasonable to do in the practically managing forest and to carry out under the responsible of leader of this forest. 4. The instructors included rangers of training forest will get specially certain intensive training through the aids of outside experts or through the group instruction with them. 5. The training fields and their reasons to be learned by them are discussed in this paper from the basic knowledge to the skill technics. 6. In oder to systematize and mordernize more rapidly our forest technics that need for training them and also applying directly in the forest management, a total effort of certain type by scientists and technicians scattered individually all over the country is now earnestly demanded to synthesize their knowledge, technic and experience. So to do like this, the establishment of certain organization through which can do their total efforts together will be considered and assisted by the concerned authority. 7. For better lieving of full-time workers, the whole-round year working amount have to be supplied though the work technic-and working plan development. And under the conditions that the timber harvesting work is still not so enough and it has a bad climatic season, the in-side working system and side - job aids will be developed for their sound lieving. 8. The organization of labour management will be soon introduced in the concerning administrativ authority to solve the forest labour problems and to increase the employing effects in forestry in future. 9. The supply programm of improved and trained tools and maschines for forest work is also considered to use by the trained persons. If not to do so, the training results will return to the original condition and will get nothing any more.

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Steroid Effect on the Brain Protection During OPen Heart Surgery Using Hypothermic Circulatory Arrest in the Rabbit Cardiopulmonary bypass Model (저체온순환정지법을 이용한 개심술시 스테로이드의 뇌보호 효과 - 토끼를 이용한 심폐바이패스 실험모델에서 -)

  • Kim, Won-Gon;Lim, Cheong;Moon, Hyun-Jong;Chun, Eui-Kyung;Chi, Je-Geun;Won, Tae-Hee;Lee, Young-Tak;Chee, Hyun-Keun;Kim, Jun-Woo
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.471-478
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    • 1997
  • Introduction: The use of rabbits as a cardiopulmonary bypass(CPB) animal model is extremely dif%cult mainly due to technical problems. On the other hand, deep hypothermic circulatory arrest(CA) is used to facilitate surgical repair in a variety of cardiac diseases. Although steroids are generally known to be effective in the treatment of cerebral edema, the protective effects of steroids on the brain during CA are not conclusively established. Objectives of this study are twofold: the establishment of CPB technique in rabbits and the evaluation of preventive effect of steroid on the development of brain edema during CA. Material '||'&'||' Methods: Fifteen New Zealan white rabbits(average body weight 3.5kg) were divided into three experimental groups; control CA group(n=5), CA with Trendelenberg position group(n=5), and CA with Trendelenberg position + steroid(methylprednisolone 30 mglkg) administration group(n=5). After anesthetic induction and tracheostomy, a median sternotomy was performed. An aortic cannula(3.3mm) and a venous ncannula(14 Fr) were inserted, respectively in the ascending aorta and the right atrium. The CPB circuit consisted of a roller pump and a bubble oxygenator. Priming volume of the circuit was approximately 450m1 with 120" 150ml of blood. CPB was initiated at a flow rate of 80~85ml/kg/min, Ten min after the start of CPB, CA was established with duration of 40min at $20^{\circ}C$ of rectal temperature. After CA, CPB was restarted with 20min period of rewarming. Ten min after weaning, the animal was sacrif;cod. One-to-2g portions of the following tissues were rapidly d:ssected and water contents were examined and compared among gr ups: brain, cervical spinal cord, kidney, duodenum, lung, heart, liver, spleen, pancreas. stomach. Statistical significances were analyzed by Kruskal-Wallis nonparametric test. Results: CPB with CA was successfully performed in all cases. Flow rate of 60-100 mlfkgfmin was able to be maintained throughout CPB. During CPB, no significant metabolic acidosis was detected and aortic pressure ranged between 35-55 mmHg. After weaning from CPB, all hearts resumed normal beating spontaneously. There were no statistically significant differences in the water contents of tissues including brain among the three experimental groups. Conclusion: These results indicate (1) CPB can be reliably administered in rabbits if proper technique is used, (2) the effect of steroid on the protection of brain edema related to Trendelenburg position during CA is not established within the scope of this experiment.

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Postmortem Changes of the Protein and Amino Acid Composition of Muscles in the Partially Frozen Prawn, Pandalus japonica (보리새우육의 부분동결저장중 단백질 및 아미노산의 조성변화)

  • PYEUN Jae-Hyeung;CHOI Young-Joon;KIM Jeung-Han;CHO Kweon-Ock
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.280-290
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    • 1984
  • An extensive study has been made on the relationship between the freshness and the compositions of the muscle protein of prawn, Pandalus japonica during the storage under partially frozen condition. The variations of the subunit distribution for sarcoplasmic protein and myofibrillar protein extracted from the samples by changes of freshness were discussed by sodium dodecylsulfate-poly-acrylamide gel (SDS-PAG) electrophoresis. On the other hand, the denaturation constant ($K_D$) of the myofibrillar protein extracted from the prawn stored at $-3^{\circ}C\;and\;-20^{\circ}C$ were successively compared. The prawn muscle contained about $18\%$ of protein with the composition of $32\%$ in sarcoplasmic protein, $56\%$ in myofibrillar protein, $10\%$ in residual intracellular protein and $2\%$ in stroma. The indices for estimating freshness of the muscle were approached to the early stage of putrefaction on the 26th day of the storage with $25.29mg\%$ of total volatile basic nitrogen, $31.36\%$ of K-value and 8.83 of pH. The content of the myofibrillar protein was remarkably decreased with the time during the storage while that of residual intracellular protein was increased. The $K_D$ values of the myofibrillar protein were $9.03{\times}10^{-6}sec^{-1}\;at\;-3^{\circ}C\;and\;4.42{\times}10^{-6}sec^{-1}\;at\;-20^{\circ}C$. The results of the analysis of SDS-PAG electrophoretograms indicated that the sarcoplasmic protein and the myofibrillar protein were composed of 12 subunits and 17 subunits in the muscle of instantaneously killed prawn ana were changed into 8 subunits and 22 subunits in the muscle stored for 26 days, respectively. It is noticeable that 30,000, 41,000, 107,000, 136,000, 170,000 173,000, 185,000, and 198,000 daltons of the newly appeared 8 subunits were found in the myofibrillar protein from the prawn muscle stored for 26 days. The amino acid composition of the muscle protein showed that the most of amino acids were slightly decreased with the days of the storage. With respect to the free amino acid composition of the muscle of instantaneously killed prawn, glycine, proline, arginine, alanine and taurine comprised $93\%$ of the total free amino acids. Taurine, valine, leucine, phenylalanine, serine, lysine, methionine, isoleucine and histidine were increased during the storage period but exceptionally proline was decreased.

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A Study on Effects of the vocal psychotherapy upon Self-Consciousness (성악심리치료활동을 통한 자기의식 변화에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Hyun Joo
    • Journal of Music and Human Behavior
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.66-83
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study is to learn both effects of the vocal psychotherapy on the self-consciousness and the variety of the self-consciousness on the vocal psychotherapy in return. The research for this study was performed to three subjects who were students of E university, Seoul, ten times for sixty minutes. The subjects were all volunteers for the advertisement on a music-therapy program searching for them on the web site of E university. The vocal psychotherapy program consists of four steps and each of them consists of two to four short terms again. Both before and after the experiment, examinations on self-consciousness were done to recognize the change of the subjects' self-consciousness which would be caused by the vocal psychotherapy activity. After every short term, the subjects were asked to write reports to closely analyze the change of self-consciousness according to the terms and the variety of the subjects. The effect of the vocal psychotherapy activity on the changes of scores in the self-consciousness examination is the first thing to point out on this study. There appeared some personal varieties on the total scores of the examination and scores of some sub-categories. Especially, there were different scores on the private self-consciousness, the public self-consciousness, and the social anxiety between before and after performing the vocal psychotherapy program. Subject A, who had got the best score of all on the scope of the private self-consciousness, showed the steepest decrease on the very scope. On the contrary, the subject showed decrease of scores of the public self-consciousness and the social anxiety in the relatively little rate. Subject B, who had got the highest score of the three on the public self-consciousness, showed the steepest decrease on that of all scopes and showed no difference on the social anxiety scope. In the case of the last one, subject C, who had relatively low scores on the private and public self-consciousness than the others, the private self-consciousness score increased but the public self-consciousness and the social anxiety scores decreased. The changes of the scores of each questions were examined in order to see possible other changes that had not been exposed on the changes of the total and sub-categories scores. As a result of that, of all twenty-eight questions, there were changes about one to two points. Subject A showed the difference with thirteen questions, subject B with sixteen and subject C with nineteen questions. The rate of change of subject C was relatively small but more questions changed and the change of score was wider than the others. Considering all those results, It can be possibly said that the vocal psychotherapy affects the changes of the scores of sub-categories in self-consciousness examination. The next thing to point out on this study is the change of recognition that was exposed on the subjects' report after every short term of the program. As a result of the close analyzing, according to the short terms and variety of self-consciousness, recognizing the way express subjects themselves by voice and recognizing their own voices appeared to be different. How much they cared about others and why they did so were also different. According to the self reports, subject A cared much about her inner thought and emotion and tended to concentrate herself as a social object. There appeared some positive emotional experiments such as emotional abundance and art curiosities on her reports but at the same time some negative emotions such as state-trait anxiety and neuroticism also appeared. Subject B, who showed high scores on the private and public self-consciousness like subject A, had a similar tendency that concentrates on herself as a social object but she showed more social anxiety than subject A. Subject C got relatively lower points in self-consciousness examination, tended to care about herself, and had less negative emotions such as state-trait anxiety than other subjects. Also, with terms going on, she showed changes in the way of caring about her own voice and others. This study has some unique significances in helping people who have problems caused by self-estimation activated with self-consciousness, using voices closely related to one's own self, performing the vocal skills discipline to solve the technical problems. Also, this study has a potentiality that the vocal psychotherapy activity can be effectively used as a way affects the mental health and developing personality.

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Investigation on Daily Life and Consciousness of Longevous People in Korea - (II) On Social Life and Daily Life Habit of Longevous People in the Past - (우리나라 장수자(長壽者)의 생활(生活) 및 의식조사(意識調査)에 관한 연구(硏究) - 장수지역(長壽地域)의 과거(過去) 사회생활(社會生活)과 일상생활습관(日常生活習慣) -)

  • Choi, Jin-Ho;Pyeun, Jae-Hyeung;Rhim, Chae-Hwan;Yang, Jong-Soon;Kim, Soo-Hyun;Kim, Jeung-Han;Lee, Byeong-Ho;Woo, Soon-Im;Choe, Sun-Nam;Byun, Dae-Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Culture
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    • v.1 no.3
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    • pp.183-196
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    • 1986
  • This study was designed to be link in the chain of the investigation on daily life and consciousness of longevous people in Korea, and to investigate the social life and daily life habit in the past of longevous people. The social life and daily life habit were surveyed on 379 subjects (male 121, female 258) of the aged who were above 80 years of age, from June to November in 1985. 1. 'Generally regular' in the rising time and bedtime between 40 and 60 years of longevous people had the highest figures of 81.8% and 63.1%, respectively. The longevous peoples of 59.4% got up by before 6 a.m., and 61.3% of these aged went to bed from 9 to 11 p.m. But there was no significant difference between male and female. 2. Of the occupation engaged in the longest term of longevous people, the self-management (86.3%) included farming, fishing and household affairs was the highest, whereas administrative position, small-scale management and white-collar worker were only 0.8%, 0.8% and 1.8%, respectively. Therefore, their work involved mainly physical labor (heavy 48.5%, light 47.2%), and mental work was only 2.8% of longevous people. It is believed that this fact was deeply related to the educational degree of them. 3. The longevous people of 58.3% retired from the occupation and household affairs abover 70 years of age, and especially 24.3% of them is including the aged above 80 years of age. 4. The longevous people of 57.2% were shared the role in the home after retirement from the occupation and household affairs, whereas 35.9% of them didn't share. Of the way in killing time in case having no role in the home, 'at home'(50.0%) was the highest, and decreased in the order of 'old people's home' (30.9%), 'ill in bed' (10.3%) and 'asylum for the aged' (8.8%). 5. The acquaintance frequency before retirement from the occupation and household affairs of longevous people showed in the order of 'wide' (38.5%), 'common' (38.0%) and 'narrow' (19.0%), and 56.5% of them had the acquaintance after retirement. 6. Only the longevous people of 38.5% had the hobby and recreation activities of 'more than once' after retirement from the occupation and household affairs, but 53.0% of them was none. Of the kinds of hobby and/or recreation, 'TV-watching' (79.2%) was the highest, and decreased in the order of 'talking with grandchild' (54.2 %), 'working at home' (35.4%), 'religion' (25.0%) and 'chess etc.' (18.1%).

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Strategy for Store Management Using SOM Based on RFM (RFM 기반 SOM을 이용한 매장관리 전략 도출)

  • Jeong, Yoon Jeong;Choi, Il Young;Kim, Jae Kyeong;Choi, Ju Choel
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.93-112
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    • 2015
  • Depending on the change in consumer's consumption pattern, existing retail shop has evolved in hypermarket or convenience store offering grocery and daily products mostly. Therefore, it is important to maintain the inventory levels and proper product configuration for effectively utilize the limited space in the retail store and increasing sales. Accordingly, this study proposed proper product configuration and inventory level strategy based on RFM(Recency, Frequency, Monetary) model and SOM(self-organizing map) for manage the retail shop effectively. RFM model is analytic model to analyze customer behaviors based on the past customer's buying activities. And it can differentiates important customers from large data by three variables. R represents recency, which refers to the last purchase of commodities. The latest consuming customer has bigger R. F represents frequency, which refers to the number of transactions in a particular period and M represents monetary, which refers to consumption money amount in a particular period. Thus, RFM method has been known to be a very effective model for customer segmentation. In this study, using a normalized value of the RFM variables, SOM cluster analysis was performed. SOM is regarded as one of the most distinguished artificial neural network models in the unsupervised learning tool space. It is a popular tool for clustering and visualization of high dimensional data in such a way that similar items are grouped spatially close to one another. In particular, it has been successfully applied in various technical fields for finding patterns. In our research, the procedure tries to find sales patterns by analyzing product sales records with Recency, Frequency and Monetary values. And to suggest a business strategy, we conduct the decision tree based on SOM results. To validate the proposed procedure in this study, we adopted the M-mart data collected between 2014.01.01~2014.12.31. Each product get the value of R, F, M, and they are clustered by 9 using SOM. And we also performed three tests using the weekday data, weekend data, whole data in order to analyze the sales pattern change. In order to propose the strategy of each cluster, we examine the criteria of product clustering. The clusters through the SOM can be explained by the characteristics of these clusters of decision trees. As a result, we can suggest the inventory management strategy of each 9 clusters through the suggested procedures of the study. The highest of all three value(R, F, M) cluster's products need to have high level of the inventory as well as to be disposed in a place where it can be increasing customer's path. In contrast, the lowest of all three value(R, F, M) cluster's products need to have low level of inventory as well as to be disposed in a place where visibility is low. The highest R value cluster's products is usually new releases products, and need to be placed on the front of the store. And, manager should decrease inventory levels gradually in the highest F value cluster's products purchased in the past. Because, we assume that cluster has lower R value and the M value than the average value of good. And it can be deduced that product are sold poorly in recent days and total sales also will be lower than the frequency. The procedure presented in this study is expected to contribute to raising the profitability of the retail store. The paper is organized as follows. The second chapter briefly reviews the literature related to this study. The third chapter suggests procedures for research proposals, and the fourth chapter applied suggested procedure using the actual product sales data. Finally, the fifth chapter described the conclusion of the study and further research.

Discovering Promising Convergence Technologies Using Network Analysis of Maturity and Dependency of Technology (기술 성숙도 및 의존도의 네트워크 분석을 통한 유망 융합 기술 발굴 방법론)

  • Choi, Hochang;Kwahk, Kee-Young;Kim, Namgyu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.101-124
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    • 2018
  • Recently, most of the technologies have been developed in various forms through the advancement of single technology or interaction with other technologies. Particularly, these technologies have the characteristic of the convergence caused by the interaction between two or more techniques. In addition, efforts in responding to technological changes by advance are continuously increasing through forecasting promising convergence technologies that will emerge in the near future. According to this phenomenon, many researchers are attempting to perform various analyses about forecasting promising convergence technologies. A convergence technology has characteristics of various technologies according to the principle of generation. Therefore, forecasting promising convergence technologies is much more difficult than forecasting general technologies with high growth potential. Nevertheless, some achievements have been confirmed in an attempt to forecasting promising technologies using big data analysis and social network analysis. Studies of convergence technology through data analysis are actively conducted with the theme of discovering new convergence technologies and analyzing their trends. According that, information about new convergence technologies is being provided more abundantly than in the past. However, existing methods in analyzing convergence technology have some limitations. Firstly, most studies deal with convergence technology analyze data through predefined technology classifications. The technologies appearing recently tend to have characteristics of convergence and thus consist of technologies from various fields. In other words, the new convergence technologies may not belong to the defined classification. Therefore, the existing method does not properly reflect the dynamic change of the convergence phenomenon. Secondly, in order to forecast the promising convergence technologies, most of the existing analysis method use the general purpose indicators in process. This method does not fully utilize the specificity of convergence phenomenon. The new convergence technology is highly dependent on the existing technology, which is the origin of that technology. Based on that, it can grow into the independent field or disappear rapidly, according to the change of the dependent technology. In the existing analysis, the potential growth of convergence technology is judged through the traditional indicators designed from the general purpose. However, these indicators do not reflect the principle of convergence. In other words, these indicators do not reflect the characteristics of convergence technology, which brings the meaning of new technologies emerge through two or more mature technologies and grown technologies affect the creation of another technology. Thirdly, previous studies do not provide objective methods for evaluating the accuracy of models in forecasting promising convergence technologies. In the studies of convergence technology, the subject of forecasting promising technologies was relatively insufficient due to the complexity of the field. Therefore, it is difficult to find a method to evaluate the accuracy of the model that forecasting promising convergence technologies. In order to activate the field of forecasting promising convergence technology, it is important to establish a method for objectively verifying and evaluating the accuracy of the model proposed by each study. To overcome these limitations, we propose a new method for analysis of convergence technologies. First of all, through topic modeling, we derive a new technology classification in terms of text content. It reflects the dynamic change of the actual technology market, not the existing fixed classification standard. In addition, we identify the influence relationships between technologies through the topic correspondence weights of each document, and structuralize them into a network. In addition, we devise a centrality indicator (PGC, potential growth centrality) to forecast the future growth of technology by utilizing the centrality information of each technology. It reflects the convergence characteristics of each technology, according to technology maturity and interdependence between technologies. Along with this, we propose a method to evaluate the accuracy of forecasting model by measuring the growth rate of promising technology. It is based on the variation of potential growth centrality by period. In this paper, we conduct experiments with 13,477 patent documents dealing with technical contents to evaluate the performance and practical applicability of the proposed method. As a result, it is confirmed that the forecast model based on a centrality indicator of the proposed method has a maximum forecast accuracy of about 2.88 times higher than the accuracy of the forecast model based on the currently used network indicators.

A Study on Public Interest-based Technology Valuation Models in Water Resources Field (수자원 분야 공익형 기술가치평가 시스템에 대한 연구)

  • Ryu, Seung-Mi;Sung, Tae-Eung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.177-198
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    • 2018
  • Recently, as economic property it has become necessary to acquire and utilize the framework for water resource measurement and performance management as the property of water resources changes to hold "public property". To date, the evaluation of water technology has been carried out by feasibility study analysis or technology assessment based on net present value (NPV) or benefit-to-cost (B/C) effect, however it is not yet systemized in terms of valuation models to objectively assess an economic value of technology-based business to receive diffusion and feedback of research outcomes. Therefore, K-water (known as a government-supported public company in Korea) company feels the necessity to establish a technology valuation framework suitable for technical characteristics of water resources fields in charge and verify an exemplified case applied to the technology. The K-water evaluation technology applied to this study, as a public interest goods, can be used as a tool to measure the value and achievement contributed to society and to manage them. Therefore, by calculating the value in which the subject technology contributed to the entire society as a public resource, we make use of it as a basis information for the advertising medium of performance on the influence effect of the benefits or the necessity of cost input, and then secure the legitimacy for large-scale R&D cost input in terms of the characteristics of public technology. Hence, K-water company, one of the public corporation in Korea which deals with public goods of 'water resources', will be able to establish a commercialization strategy for business operation and prepare for a basis for the performance calculation of input R&D cost. In this study, K-water has developed a web-based technology valuation model for public interest type water resources based on the technology evaluation system that is suitable for the characteristics of a technology in water resources fields. In particular, by utilizing the evaluation methodology of the Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST) in Japan to match the expense items to the expense accounts based on the related benefit items, we proposed the so-called 'K-water's proprietary model' which involves the 'cost-benefit' approach and the FCF (Free Cash Flow), and ultimately led to build a pipeline on the K-water research performance management system and then verify the practical case of a technology related to "desalination". We analyze the embedded design logic and evaluation process of web-based valuation system that reflects characteristics of water resources technology, reference information and database(D/B)-associated logic for each model to calculate public interest-based and profit-based technology values in technology integrated management system. We review the hybrid evaluation module that reflects the quantitative index of the qualitative evaluation indices reflecting the unique characteristics of water resources and the visualized user-interface (UI) of the actual web-based evaluation, which both are appended for calculating the business value based on financial data to the existing web-based technology valuation systems in other fields. K-water's technology valuation model is evaluated by distinguishing between public-interest type and profitable-type water technology. First, evaluation modules in profit-type technology valuation model are designed based on 'profitability of technology'. For example, the technology inventory K-water holds has a number of profit-oriented technologies such as water treatment membranes. On the other hand, the public interest-type technology valuation is designed to evaluate the public-interest oriented technology such as the dam, which reflects the characteristics of public benefits and costs. In order to examine the appropriateness of the cost-benefit based public utility valuation model (i.e. K-water specific technology valuation model) presented in this study, we applied to practical cases from calculation of benefit-to-cost analysis on water resource technology with 20 years of lifetime. In future we will additionally conduct verifying the K-water public utility-based valuation model by each business model which reflects various business environmental characteristics.