• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.17 no.12
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• pp.53-61
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• 2016

This paper investigates the moderating effect of firm size on the relationship between environmental uncertainty and logistics information systems fit and performance, and suggests logistics strategies that would help to achieve goals. Based on our empirical research results, the findings of this paper can be summarized as follows: First, firms with higher levels of harmony between environmental uncertainty and logistics information systems fit featured significantly better logistics performance than firms with lower levels of fit. Second, logistical performance can be maximized based on the firm size and the harmonization between environmental uncertainty and logistics information systems. The results of this study will assist firms align and focus on improving competitive strategies for logistics systems.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.155-163
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• 2010

The flash flood is characterized as flood leading to damage by heavy rainfall occurred in steep slope and impervious area with short duration. Flash flood occurs when rainfall exceeds Flash Flood Guidance(FFG). So, the accurate estimation of FFG will be helpful in flash flood forecasting and warning system. Say, if we can reduce the uncertainty of rainfall-runoff relationship, FFG can be estimated more accurately. However, since the rainfall-runoff models have their own parameter characteristics, the uncertainty of FFG will depend upon the selection of rainfall-runoff model. This study used four rainfall-runoff models of HEC-HMS model, Storage Function model, SSARR model and TANK model for the estimation of models' uncertainties by using Monte Carlo simulation. Then, we derived the confidence limits of rainfall-runoff relationship by four models on 95%-confidence level.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.177-200
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• 2019

Energy demand forecast which serves as an essential input in energy policy is exposed to multiple factors of uncertainty such as GDP and weather forecast uncertainty. The Master Plan of Electricity Market in Korea which is biennially prepared is critically based on fluctuating energy demand forecast whereas its resulting proposal on electricity generation mix is substantially irreversible. The paper provides a real options model to evaluate energy transition policy by considering Knightian uncertainty as a measure to study multiple uncertainties with multiple set of probability distributions. Our finding is that the current energy transition policy under the master plan is not robust in terms of securing stable management of electricity demand and supply system.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.55 no.9
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• pp.3423-3440
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• 2023

In this work, a multivariate time-series machine learning meta-model is developed to predict the transient response of a typical nuclear power plant (NPP) undergoing a steam generator tube rupture (SGTR). The model employs Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), including the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), and a hybrid CNN-LSTM model. To address the uncertainty inherent in such predictions, a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) was implemented. The models were trained using a database generated by the Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty (BEPU) methodology; coupling the thermal hydraulics code, RELAP5/SCDAP/MOD3.4 to the statistical tool, DAKOTA, to predict the variation in system response under various operational and phenomenological uncertainties. The RNN models successfully captures the underlying characteristics of the data with reasonable accuracy, and the BNN-LSTM approach offers an additional layer of insight into the level of uncertainty associated with the predictions. The results demonstrate that LSTM outperforms GRU, while the hybrid CNN-LSTM model is computationally the most efficient. This study aims to gain a better understanding of the capabilities and limitations of machine learning models in the context of nuclear safety. By expanding the application of ML models to more severe accident scenarios, where operators are under extreme stress and prone to errors, ML models can provide valuable support and act as expert systems to assist in decision-making while minimizing the chances of human error.

• The Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.97-105
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• 1997

The aim of this paper is to introduce a design technique of the Two-Degree-of-Freedom(TDF) satellite-tracking control system which has not only the robust stability for a unstructured uncertainty but also the robust performance for a structured uncertainty. This TDF system which can design the feedforward controller KI and the feedback one K independently is designed by , $\mu$-synthesis. The effectiveness of this TDF system is verified and compared with the One-Degree-of -Freedom(ODF) satellitetracking control system by computer simulation.

• The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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• v.14 no.6
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• pp.1139-1144
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• 2019

A calibration system for diagnosing and confirming the performance of precision measuring instruments minimizes the risk of misjudgment of calibration resulted by complying with international standard requirements in order to ensure the reliability of calibration results. This paper uses a proposed calibration system suitability assessment and a guard-band technique through an analysis of uncertainty factors when it is impossible to acquire and operate high-performance equipment at a calibration laboratory, and proposes an optimized test limit output model substituting performance standards. The proposed method provides an optimized test standard to meet the quantitative evaluation criteria of the calibration system and the probability of false acceptance risk required by international standards.

• International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.78-83
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• 2011

Traditional autopilot design requires an accurate aerodynamic model and relies on a gain schedule to account for system nonlinearities. This paper presents the control architecture applied to a dynamic model inversion at a single flight condition with an on-line neural network (NN) in order to regulate errors caused by approximate inversion. This eliminates the need for an extensive design process and accurate aerodynamic data. The simulation results using a developed full nonlinear 6 degree of freedom model are presented. This paper also presents the stability evaluation for control systems to which NNs were applied. Although feedback can accommodate uncertainty to meet system performance specifications, uncertainty can also affect the stability of the control system. The importance of robustness has long been recognized and stability margins were developed to quantify it. However, the traditional stability margin techniques based on linear control theory can not be applied to control systems upon which a representative non-linear control method, such as NNs, has been applied. This paper presents an alternative stability margin technique for NNs applied to control systems based on the system responses to an inserted gain multiplier or time delay element.

• Transactions on Control, Automation and Systems Engineering
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• v.1 no.2
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• pp.94-98
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• 1999

Optical scanning systems use glavanometers to point the laser beam to the desired position on the workpiece. The angular speed of a galvanometer is typically controlled using Proportional+Integral+Derivative(PID) control algorithms. However, natural variations in the dynamics of different galvanometers due to manufacturing, aging, and environmental factors(i.e., process uncertainty) impose a hard limit on the bandwidth of the galvanometer control system. In general, the control bandwidth translates directly into efficiency of the system response. Since the optical scanning system must have rapid response, the higher control bandwidth is required. Auto-tuning PID algorithms have been accepted in this area since they could overcome some of the problems related to process uncertainty. However, when the galvanometer is attached to a larger mechanical system, the combined dynamics often exhibit resonances. It is well understood that PId algorithms may not have the capacity to increase the control bandwidth in the face of such resonances. This paper compares the achieable performance and robustness of a galvanometer control system using a PID controller tuned by the Ziegler-Nichols method and a controller designed by the Quantitative Feedback Theory(QFT) method. The results clearly indicate that-in contrast to PID designs-QFT can deliver a single, fixed controller which will supply high bandwidth design even when the dynamics is uncertain and includes mechanical resonances.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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• v.55 no.1
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• pp.45-51
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• 2006

This paper proposes a method to evaluate the Total Transfer Capability (TTC) by considering uncertainty of weather conditions. TTC is limited not only by the violation of system thermal and voltage limits, but also restricted by transient stability limit. Impact of the contingency on the power system performance could not be addressed in a deterministic way because of the random nature of the system equipment outage and the increase of outage probability according to the weather conditions. For these reasons, probabilistic approach is necessary to realize evaluation of the TTC. This method uses a sequential Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). In sequential simulation, the chronological behavior of the system is simulated by sampling sequence of the system operating states based on the probability distribution of the component state duration. Therefore, MCS is used to accomplish the probabilistic calculation of the TTC with consideration of the weather conditions.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.305-320
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• 2007

With expanded use of B2B(between enterprises), B2G(between enterprises and government) and EDI(Electronic Data Interchange), and increased amount of available network information and information protection threat, as it was judged that security can not be perfectly assured only with security technology such as electronic signature/authorization and access control, Bayesian networks have been developed for protection of information. Therefore, this study speculates Bayesian networks system, centering on ERP(Enterprise Resource Planning). The Bayesian networks system is one of the methods to resolve uncertainty in electronic data interchange and is applied to overcome uncertainty of abnormal invasion detection in ERP. Bayesian networks are applied to construct profiling for system call and network data, and simulate against abnormal invasion detection. The host-based abnormal invasion detection system in electronic trade analyses system call, applies Bayesian probability values, and constructs normal behavior profile to detect abnormal behaviors. This study assumes before and after of delivery behavior of the electronic document through Bayesian probability value and expresses before and after of the delivery behavior or events based on Bayesian networks. Therefore, profiling process using Bayesian networks can be applied for abnormal invasion detection based on host and network. In respect to transmission and reception of electronic documents, we need further studies on standards that classify abnormal invasion of various patterns in ERP and evaluate them by Bayesian probability values, and on classification of B2B invasion pattern genealogy to effectively detect deformed abnormal invasion patterns.