• Title/Summary/Keyword: system uncertainty

Search Result 2,446, Processing Time 0.039 seconds

Development of Magnetic Sensor for Measurement of the Cable Tension of Large Scale Bridge (대형교량 케이블 장력 측정을 위한 자기센서 개발)

  • Park, Hae-Won;Ahn, Bong-Young;Lee, Seung-Seok;Kim, Jong-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Nondestructive Testing
    • /
    • v.27 no.4
    • /
    • pp.339-344
    • /
    • 2007
  • Safety of large scale cable in bridge is very important because it may cause the unwanted catastrophic failure. Although the proof load were considered at the design stage, its soundness must be monitored continuously because the cable may be broken out without warning by the variable external load. The cable tension of in-use structures has been mainly measured by the resonance method and its use has been limited because of relatively large measurement uncertainty. Recently a new magnetic method was developed and its reliability is known to be good for evaluating the cable tension. In this study a system which can deliver the calibrated load to the cable was developed and the measurement reliability of developed magnetic sensor according to the change of external load was analyzed quantitatively. The effect of magnetization frequency, bias magnetic field, and temperature on the sensor output was also evaluated.

A Case Study on Function Point Method applying on Monte Carlo Simulation in Automotive Software Development

  • Do, Sung Ryong
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
    • /
    • v.25 no.6
    • /
    • pp.119-129
    • /
    • 2020
  • Software development activities are influenced by stochastic theory rather than deterministic one due to having process variability. Stochastic methods factor in the uncertainties associated with project activities and provides insight into the expected project outputs as probability distributions rather than as deterministic approximations. Thus, successful software projects systematically manage and balance five objectives based on historical probability: scope, size, cost, effort, schedule, and quality. Although software size estimation having much uncertainty in initial development has traditionally performed using deterministic methods: LOC(Lines Of Code), COCOMO(COnsructive COst MOdel), FP(Function Point), SLIM(Software LIfecycle Management). This research aims to present a function point method based on stochastic distribution and a case study based on Monte Carlo Simulation applying on an automotive electrical and electronics system software development. It is expected that the result of this paper is used as guidance for establishing of function point method in organizations and tools for helping project managers make decisions correctly.

Beyond the Behaviorism Embedded in the Hungerford Approach (헝거포드 접근법의 행동주의를 넘어서)

  • 이재영
    • Hwankyungkyoyuk
    • /
    • v.15 no.1
    • /
    • pp.68-82
    • /
    • 2002
  • My responses to Kim Kyung-Ok's Critique on my critique on the Hungerford approach can be summarized as follows; First, it was argued that possible confusions and misunderstandings around the concept of behavior in REB were mainly caused by Hungerford himself who has used the word in several different ways, from a bunch of overt actions to almost all kinds of responses including cognitive skills, without any clear operational definition of it for more than 20 years. It seems to be needed for future users of the word, 'Behavior' to Prevent unnecessary confusions by providing their operational definition of it. Second, REB is too ambiguous to be a legitimate goal of environmental education and too outcome-oriented to be a meaningful measure for environmental education research. Anyone who accept REB as a goal of EE or a measure for research should clearly suggest procedures and criteria for judging the environmental responsibility of actions under consideration. Third, the Hungerford approach has begun by realizing the limit of a linear traditional behavior change system and has been evolving toward a complex model with dynamic interactions among/between cognitive variables and affective variables. However, it still has one-way structural orientation toward 'Behavior' with no feedbacks. Addition of some feedback processes would make the model more flexible and realistic. Finally, both the Hines model and the Hungeford model were established based on a series of behavioristic studies including three doctoral dissertations equiped with a list of actions which were prejudged to be environmentally responsible by the researchers, not by the learners. What they were primarily interested in was not how mind functions during the learning processes but how learners' behavior can be effectively changed. Considering uncertainty and complexity associated with environmental problems, a great deal of efforts ought to be made toward more context-based and less normative studies applying cognitive psychology and quantitative approaches.

  • PDF

Manual model updating of highway bridges under operational condition

  • Altunisik, Ahmet C.;Bayraktar, Alemdar
    • Smart Structures and Systems
    • /
    • v.19 no.1
    • /
    • pp.39-46
    • /
    • 2017
  • Finite element model updating is very effective procedure to determine the uncertainty parameters in structural model and minimize the differences between experimentally and numerically identified dynamic characteristics. This procedure can be practiced with manual and automatic model updating procedures. The manual model updating involves manual changes of geometry and analyses parameters by trial and error, guided by engineering judgement. Besides, the automated updating is performed by constructing a series of loops based on optimization procedures. This paper addresses the ambient vibration based finite element model updating of long span reinforced concrete highway bridges using manual model updating procedure. Birecik Highway Bridge located on the $81^{st}km$ of Şanliurfa-Gaziantep state highway over Firat River in Turkey is selected as a case study. The structural carrier system of the bridge consists of two main parts: Arch and Beam Compartments. In this part of the paper, the arch compartment is investigated. Three dimensional finite element model of the arch compartment of the bridge is constructed using SAP2000 software to determine the dynamic characteristics, numerically. Operational Modal Analysis method is used to extract dynamic characteristics using Enhanced Frequency Domain Decomposition method. Numerically and experimentally identified dynamic characteristics are compared with each other and finite element model of the arch compartment of the bridge is updated manually by changing some uncertain parameters such as section properties, damages, boundary conditions and material properties to reduce the difference between the results. It is demonstrated that the ambient vibration measurements are enough to identify the most significant modes of long span highway bridges. Maximum differences between the natural frequencies are reduced averagely from %49.1 to %0.6 by model updating. Also, a good harmony is found between mode shapes after finite element model updating.

A Study on the Quantitative and Evaluation Weights of National Greenhouse Gas Emission Factors in the Mineral Industry (광물산업의 국가온실가스배출계수 정량·평가항목 가중치에 관한 연구)

  • Yoon, Yoongjoong;Cho, Changsang;Jeon, Eui Chan
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
    • /
    • v.9 no.1
    • /
    • pp.81-90
    • /
    • 2018
  • "The Framework Act on Low-Carbon Green Growth" specifies the requirements for the development and verification of emission factors for establishing reliable national greenhouse gas statistics. The scope of the regulations covers the development and validation of energy, industrial processes, solvents and other product use, agriculture, land use, land use change and emission and absorption coefficients of the forestry and waste sector as defined in the 1996 IPCC Guideline and GPG 2000, The minerals sector to be covered in this study belongs to industrial processes. As a representative method for quantifying and evaluating GHG emission factors, there are emission grade quality grading and DARS (Data Rating Rating System) in the 'Procedures for Preparing Emission Factor Documents (1997)' reported by US-EPA. However, the above two methods are not specific and comprehensive, and lack the details for accurate emission factor verification. Therefore, there is a need for a method for verifying and quantifying certified greenhouse gas emission factors that reflects characteristics of each industry sector in Korea and accord with IPCC G/L and GHG target management. In this study, we conducted a weighted study on quantitative and evaluation lists of emission factor using questionnaires to develop a more accurate methodology for quantifying national greenhouse gas emission factors in the mineral sector. Quantification and evaluation of emission factor are classified into essential verification and quality evaluation. The essential verifications are : administrative compatibility, method of determining emission factors, emission characteristics, sampling methods and analysis methods, representativeness of data. The quality evaluations consisted of the quality control of the data, the accuracy of the measurement and analysis, the level of uncertainty, not directly affect the emission factor, but consisted of factors that determine data quality.

Skin Dose Comparison of CyberKnife and Helical Tomotherapy for Head-and-Neck Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy

  • Yoon, Jeongmin;Park, Kwangwoo;Kim, Jin Sung;Kim, Yong Bae;Lee, Ho
    • Progress in Medical Physics
    • /
    • v.30 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-6
    • /
    • 2019
  • Purpose: This study conducts a comparative evaluation of the skin dose in CyberKnife (CK) and Helical Tomotherapy (HT) to predict the accurate dose of radiation and minimize skin burns in head-and-neck stereotactic body radiotherapy. Materials and Methods: Arbitrarily-defined planning target volume (PTV) close to the skin was drawn on the planning computed tomography acquired from a head-and-neck phantom with 19 optically stimulated luminescent dosimeters (OSLDs) attached to the surface (3 OSLDs were positioned at the skin close to PTV and 16 OSLDs were near sideburns and forehead, away from PTV). The calculation doses were obtained from the MultiPlan 5.1.2 treatment planning system using raytracing (RT), finite size pencil beam (FSPB), and Monte Carlo (MC) algorithms for CK. For HT, the skin dose was estimated via convolution superposition (CS) algorithm from the Tomotherapy planning station 5.0.2.5. The prescribed dose was 8 Gy for 95% coverage of the PTV. Results and Conclusions: The mean differences between calculation and measurement values were $-1.2{\pm}3.1%$, $2.5{\pm}7.9%$, $-2.8{\pm}3.8%$, $-6.6{\pm}8.8%$, and $-1.4{\pm}1.8%$ in CS, RT, RT with contour correction (CC), FSPB, and MC, respectively. FSPB showed a dose error comparable to RT. CS and RT with CC led to a small error as compared to FSPB and RT. Considering OSLDs close to PTV, MC minimized the uncertainty of skin dose as compared to other algorithms.

Evaluation of Seismic Fragility Curve of Seismically Isolated Nuclear Power Plant Structures for Artificial Synthetic Earthquakes Corresponding to Maximum-Minimum Spectrum (최대-최소 스펙트럼에 대응하는 인공합성지진에 대한 면진된 원전구조물의 지진취약도 곡선 평가)

  • Kim, Hyeon-Jeong;Song, Jong-Keol
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
    • /
    • v.23 no.2
    • /
    • pp.89-99
    • /
    • 2019
  • In order to increase the seismic safety of nuclear power plant (NPP) structures, a technique to reduce the seismic load transmitted to the NPP structure by using a seismic isolation device such as a lead-rubber bearing has recently been actively researched. In seismic design of NPP structures, three directional (two horizontal and one vertical directions) artificial synthetic earthquakes (G0 group) corresponding to the standard design spectrum are generally used. In this study, seismic analysis was performed by using three directional artificial synthetic earthquakes (M0 group) corresponding to the maximum-minimum spectrum reflecting uncertainty of incident direction of earthquake load. The design basis earthquake (DBE) and the beyond design basis earthquakes (BDBEs are equal to 150%, 167%, and 200% DBE) of G0 and M0 earthquake groups were respectively generated for 30 sets and used for the seismic analysis. The purpose of this study is to compare seismic responses and seismic fragility curves of seismically isolated NPP structures subjected to DBE and BDBE. From the seismic fragility curves, the probability of failure of the seismic isolation system when the peak ground acceleration (PGA) is 0.5 g is about 5% for the M0 earthquake group and about 3% for the G0 earthquake group.

Analysis of the potential landslide hazard after wildfire considering compound disaster effect (복합재해 영향을 고려한 산불 후 산사태 잠재적 피해 위험도 분석)

  • Lee, Jong-Ook;Lee, Dong-Kun;Song, Young-Il
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
    • /
    • v.22 no.1
    • /
    • pp.33-45
    • /
    • 2019
  • Compound disaster is the type that increases the impact affected by two or more hazard events, and attention to compound disaster and multi-hazards risk is growing due to potential damages which are difficult to predict. The objective of this study is to analyze the possible impacts of post-fire landslide scenario quantitatively by using TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Analysis), a physics-based landslide model. In the case of wildfire, soil organic material and density are altered, and saturated hydraulic conductivity decrease because of soil exposed to high temperature. We have included the change of soil saturated hydraulic conductivity into the TRIGRS model through literature review. For a case study, we selected the area of $8km^2$ in Pyeongchang County. The landslide modeling process was calibrated before simulate the post-wildfire impact based on landslide inventory data to reduce uncertainty. As a result, the mean of the total factor of safety values in the case of landslide was 2.641 when rainfall duration is 1 hour with rainfall intensity of 100mm per day, while the mean value for the case of post-wildfire landslide was lower to 2.579, showing potential landslide occurrence areas appear more quickly in the compound disaster scenario. This study can be used to prevent potential losses caused by the compound disaster such as post-wildfire debris flow or landslides.

A Study on Development of Climate Change Adaptation in Ecosystem Sector - Focused on Policy and Research Base in Major Countries - (생태분야 기후변화 적응의 흐름과 발전방향 - 국내외 정책 및 연구기반을 중심으로 -)

  • Yeo, Inae;Hong, Seungbum;Park, Eunjin
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
    • /
    • v.28 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-22
    • /
    • 2019
  • This study aims at deriving the implications for adaptation policy and research target regarding climate change risk assessment in ecosystem sector in Korea. The common ground of exemplary cases of "world leaders" in terms of adaptation policies and researches was that they emphasize nationwide study on climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem in target of establishing scientific evidence-bases and reducing uncertainty for their national adaptation policies and plans. In light of this trend, Korean government should settle down more successful adaptation structure by leading adaptation system in further national policy-settings to observe UNFCCC and CBD integratedly and effectively, considering the economic value of adaptation in policy, and strengthening scientific research programs and technology developments. Moreover, risks assessment based on diagnoses and analysis on the risk factors (hazard, exposure, and vulnerability) for climate change in nationwide habitats and species and consolidations with subsequent adaptation strategies could make adaptations in ecosystem sector more effective and successful.

Mid-term (2009-2019) demographic dynamics of young beech forest in Albongbunji Basin, Ulleungdo, South Korea

  • Cho, Yong-Chan;Sim, Hyung Seok;Jung, Songhie;Kim, Han-Gyeoul;Kim, Jun-Soo;Bae, Kwan-Ho
    • Journal of Ecology and Environment
    • /
    • v.44 no.4
    • /
    • pp.241-255
    • /
    • 2020
  • Background: The stem exclusion stage is a stage of forest development that is important for understanding the subsequent understory reinitiation stage and maturation stage during which horizontal heterogeneity is formed. Over the past 11 years (2009-2019), we observed a deciduous broad-leaved forest in the Albongbunji Basin in Ulleungdo, South Korea in its stem exclusion stage, where Fagus engleriana (Engler's beech) is the dominant species, thereby analyzing the changes in the structure (density and size distributions), function (biomass and species richness), and demographics. Results: The mean stem density data presented a bell-shaped curve with initially increasing, peaking, and subsequently decreasing trends in stem density over time, and the mean biomass data showed a sigmoidal pattern indicating that the rate of biomass accumulation slowed over time. Changes in the density and biomass of Fagus engleriana showed a similar trend to the changes in density and biomass at the community level, which is indicative of the strong influence of this species on the changing patterns of forest structure and function. Around 2015, a shift between recruitment and mortality rates was observed. Deterministic processes were the predominant cause of tree mortality in our study; however, soil deposition that began in 2017 in some of the quadrats resulted in an increase in the contribution of stochastic processes (15% in 2019) to tree mortality. The development of horizontal heterogeneity was observed in forest gaps. Conclusions: Our observations showed a dramatic shift between the recruitment and mortality rates in the stem exclusion stage, and that disturbance increases the uncertainty in forest development increases. The minor changes in species composition are likely linked to regional species pool and the limited role of the life-history strategy of species such as shade tolerance and habitat affinity. Our midterm records of ecological succession exhibited detailed demographic dynamics and contributed to the improvement of an ecological perspective in the stem exclusion stage.