• Title/Summary/Keyword: system uncertainty

Search Result 2,446, Processing Time 0.029 seconds

Analysis of the Difference of Flow Duration Curve according to the Cumulative Variation of the Daily Average Flow in Unit Watershed for TPLCs (총량관리 단위유역 일평균유량의 시계열 누적 변화에 따른 유량지속곡선 차이 분석)

  • Hwang, Ha-sun;Rhee, Han-pil;Seo, Ji-yeon;Choi, Yu-jin;Park, Ji- hyung;Shin, Dong-seok;Lee, Sung-jun
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
    • /
    • v.60 no.6
    • /
    • pp.97-109
    • /
    • 2018
  • The LDC (Load Duration Curve) method can analyze river water quality changes according to flow rate and seasonal conditions. It is also possible to visually recognize whether the target water quality is exceeded or the size of the reduction load. For this reason, it is used for the optimal reduction of TPLCs and analysis of the cause of water pollution. At this time, the flow duration curve should be representative of the water body hydrologic curve, but if not, the uncertainty of the interpretation becomes big because the damaged flow condition is changed. The purpose of this study is to estimate the daily mean flow of the unit watershed using the HSPF model and to analyze the difference of the flow duration curves according to the cumulative daily mean flow rate using the NSE technique. The results show that it is desirable to construct the flow duration curve by using the daily average flow rate of at least 5 years although there is a difference by unit watershed. However, this is the result of the water bodies at the end of Han River basin watershed, so further study on various water bodies will be necessary in the future.

Least Square Channel Estimation Scheme of OFDM System using Fuzzy Inference Method (퍼지 추론법을 적용한 OFDM 시스템의 LS(Least Square) 채널추정 기법)

  • Kim, Nam;Choi, Jung-Hun
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
    • /
    • v.9 no.5
    • /
    • pp.84-90
    • /
    • 2009
  • In this paper, the new channel estimation was proposed that have the low complexity and high performance using Fuzzy inference method uses recently from various field for estimation about uncertainty in channel estimation of OFDM. Proposed method is channel estimation performance improve, calculation and interpolation for statistics character of channel using the pilot before LS channel estimation by Fuzzy inference method. Simulation result in QPSK proposed channel estimation method shows the enhancement of 5.5dB compared to the LS channel estimation and the deterioration of 1.3dB compared to the MMSE channel estimation in mean square error point $10^{-3}$. symbol error rate shows similarity performance the MMSE $10^{-1.96}$, proposed channel estimation $10^{-1.93}$ and enhancement of $10^{-0.35}$ compared to the LS channel estimation in signal to noise ratio point 20dB.

Estimating Maintenance Cost by Actual Database Based on Operation in Sewage Treatment Plant (하수처리장 실적데이터베이스를 활용한 유지관리비용 예측)

  • Lee, Tai-Sik;Kwak, Dong-Koo
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
    • /
    • v.10 no.10
    • /
    • pp.2803-2809
    • /
    • 2009
  • For a successful construction project not only construction engineering and project management technology but also economic evaluation technique is required. Design and construction technologies are necessary to receive a project order. However, construction management technology which can be apply from the project initial phase to the project operation and management phase is required to create a benefit from the project. Construction management technology is one of the effective factors for project success. Economical and efficient cost management from the planning phase influences the project success. This study investigated cost flow and cost factors of domestic Sewage Treatment Plant project for systematic analysis of cost items following the entire project phase. Particularly, data modeling based on domestic Sewage Treatment Equipment maintenance cost DB was performed, and maintenance cost estimation trend line is suggested using Monte carlo Simulation Method to decrease uncertainty of actual results DB and for feasibility study. Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society. The Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society. The Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society. The Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society.

Ozone Simulations over the Seoul Metropolitan Area for a 2007 June Episode, Part I: Evaluating Volatile Organic Compounds Emissions Speciated for the SAPRC99 Chemical Mechanism (2007년 6월 수도권 오존모사 I - 광화학측정자료를 이용한 SAPRC99 화학종별 휘발성유기물질 배출량 입력자료 평가)

  • Kim, Soon-Tae
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
    • /
    • v.27 no.5
    • /
    • pp.580-602
    • /
    • 2011
  • Volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions in the 2007 CAPSS (Clean Air Protection Supporting System) emissions inventory are chemically speciated for the SAPRC99 (Statewide Air Pollution Research Center 99) mechanism, following the Source Classification Code (SCC) matching method to borrow the U.S.EPA's chemical speciation profiles. CMAQ simulations with High-order Direct Decoupled Method (HDDM) are in turn applied to evaluate uncertainty in the method by comparing the simulated model VOC species to the observations in the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA) for a 2007 June episode. Simulations under-predicted ALK1 to ALK4 in SAPRC99 by a factor of 2 to 5 and over-predicted ALK5 by a factor of 7.5 while ARO1, ARO2, OLE1, and ethylene (ETH) are comparable to the observations, showing relative difference by 10 to 30%. OLE2 emissions are roughly 4 times overestimated. Emission rates for individual VOC model species are revised referring to the ratio of simulated to observed concentrations. Impact of the VOC emission changes on the overall ozone prediction was insignificant for the days of which 1-hr maximum ozone are lower than 100 ppb. However, simulations showed ozone difference by 5 to 10 ppb when high ozone above 120 ppb was observed in the vicinity of Seoul. This result suggests that evaluations on individual model VOC emissions be necessary to lead ozone control plans to the right direction. Moreover, the simulated ratios of ARO1 and ARO2 to $NO_x$ are roughly 50% lower than the observed ones, which imply that adjustment in $NO_x$ and VOC emission rates may be required to mimic the real VOC/$NO_x$ condition over the area.

The Impact of Disclosure Quality on Crash Risk: Focusing on Unfaithful Disclosure Firms (공시품질이 주가급락에 미치는 영향: 불성실공시 지정기업을 대상으로)

  • RYU, Hae-Young
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
    • /
    • v.10 no.6
    • /
    • pp.51-58
    • /
    • 2019
  • Purpose - Prior studies reported that the opacity of information caused stock price crash. If managers fail to disclose unfavorable information about the firm over a long period of time, the stock price is overvalued compared to its original value. If the accumulated information reaches a critical point and spreads quickly to the market, the stock price plunges. Information management by management's disclosure policy can cause information uncertainty, which will lead to a plunge in stock prices in the future. Thus, this study aims at examining the impact of disclosure quality on crash risk by focusing on the unfaithful disclosure firms. Research design, data, and methodology - This study covers firms listed on KOSPI and KOSDAQ from 2004 to 2013. Firms excluded from the sample are non-December firms, capital-eroding firms, and financial firms. The financial data used in the research was extracted from the KIS-Value and TS2000 database. Unfaithful disclosure firm designation data was collected from the Korea Exchange's electronic disclosure system (kind.krx.co.kr). Stock crash is measured as a dummy variable that equals one if a firm experiences at least one crash week over the fiscal year, and zero otherwise. Results - Empirical results as to the relation between unfaithful disclosure corporation designation and stock price crashes are as follows: There was a significant positive association between unfaithful disclosure corporation designation and stock price crash. This result supports the hypothesis that firms that have previously exhibited unfaithful disclosure behavior are more likely to suffer stock price plunges due to information asymmetry. Second, stock price crashes due to unfaithful disclosures are more likely to occur in Chaebol firms. Conclusions - While previous studies used estimates as a proxy for information opacity, this study used an objective measure such as unfaithful disclosure corporation designation. The designation by Korea Exchange is an objective evidence that the firm attempted to conceal and distort information in the previous year. The results of this study suggest that capital market investors need to investigate firms' disclosure behaviors.

Name Disambiguation using Cycle Detection Algorithm Based on Social Networks (사회망 기반 순환 탐지 기법을 이용한 저자명 명확화 기법)

  • Shin, Dong-Wook;Kim, Tae-Hwan;Jeong, Ha-Na;Choi, Joong-Min
    • Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
    • /
    • v.36 no.4
    • /
    • pp.306-319
    • /
    • 2009
  • A name is a key feature for distinguishing people, but we often fail to discriminate people because an author may have multiple names or multiple authors may share the same name. Such name ambiguity problems affect the performance of document retrieval, web search and database integration. Especially, in bibliography information, a number of errors may be included since there are different authors with the same name or an author name may be misspelled or represented with an abbreviation. For solving these problems, it is necessary to disambiguate the names inputted into the database. In this paper, we propose a method to solve the name ambiguity by using social networks constructed based on the relations between authors. We evaluated the effectiveness of the proposed system based on DBLP data that offer computer science bibliographic information.

E-Business and Simulation

  • Park, Sung-Joo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Society for Simulation Conference
    • /
    • 2001.10a
    • /
    • pp.9-10
    • /
    • 2001
  • Simulation has been evolved with the advance of computer and technique of modeling application systems. Early simulations were numerical analysis of engineering models known as continuous simulation, analysis of random events using various random number generators thus named as Monte Carlo simulation, iud analysis o(\\\\`queues which are prevalent in many real world systems including manufacturing, transportation, telecommunication. Discrete-event simulation has been used far modeling and analyzing the systems with waiting lines and inefficient delays. These simulations, either discrete-event, continuous, or hybrid, have played a key role in industrial age by helping to design and implement the efficient real world systems. In the information age which has been brought up by the advent of Internet, e-business has emerged. E-business, any business using Internet, can be characterized by the network of extended enterprises---extended supply and demand chains. The extension of value chains spans far reaching scope in business functions and space globally. It also extends to the individual customer, customer preferences and behaviors, to find the best service and product fit for each individual---mass customization. Simulation should also play a key role in analyzing and evaluating the various phenomena of e-business where the phenomena can be characterized by dynamics, uncertainty, and complexity. In this tutorial, applications of simulation to e-business phenomena will be explained and illustrated. Examples are the dynamics of new economy, analysis of e-business processes, virtual manufacturing system, digital divide phenomena, etc. Partly influenced by e-business, a new trend of simulation has emerged called agent-based simulation, Agent-based simulation is a technique of simulation using software agent that have autonomy and proactivity which are useful in analyzing and integrating numerous individual customer's behavior. One particular form of agent-based simulation is swarm. This tutorial concludes with the illustration of swarm or swarm Intelligence applied to various e-business applications, and future directions and implications of this new trend of simulation.

  • PDF

Development of Traffic Accidents Prediction Model With Fuzzy and Neural Network Theory (퍼지 및 신경망 이론을 이용한 교통사고예측모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jang-Uk;Nam, Gung-Mun;Kim, Jeong-Hyeon;Lee, Su-Beom
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.24 no.7 s.93
    • /
    • pp.81-90
    • /
    • 2006
  • It is important to clarify the relationship between traffic accidents and various influencing factors in order to reduce the number of traffic accidents. This study developed a traffic accident frequency prediction model using by multi-linear regression and qualification theories which are commonly applied in the field of traffic safety to verify the influences of various factors into the traffic accident frequency The data were collected on the Korean National Highway 17 which shows the highest accident frequencies and fatality rates in Chonbuk province. In order to minimize the uncertainty of the data, the fuzzy theory and neural network theory were applied. The neural network theory can provide fair learning performance by modeling the human neural system mathematically. Tn conclusion, this study focused on the practicability of the fuzzy reasoning theory and the neural network theory for traffic safety analysis.

Ranking Decision on Assessment Indicator of Natural Resource Conservation Area Using Fuzzy Theory - Focused on Site Selection for the National Trust - (퍼지이론을 이용한 자연자원 보전지역의 평가지표 순위 결정 - 내셔널 트러스트 후보지 선정을 중심으로 -)

  • You Ju-Han;Jung Sung-Gwan;Park Kyung-Hun;Oh Jeong-Hak
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
    • /
    • v.33 no.4 s.111
    • /
    • pp.97-107
    • /
    • 2005
  • This study was carried out to construct accurate and scientific system of assessment indicators in selection of National Trust conservation areas, which was new concept of domestic environment movement and offer the raw data of new analytic method by introducing the fuzzy theory and weight for overcoming the uncertainty of ranking decision. To transform the Likert's scale granted to assessment indicators into the type of triangular fuzzy number(a, b, c), there was conversion to each minimum(a), median(b), and maximum(c) in applying membership function, and in using the center of gravity and eigenvalue, there was to decide the ranking. The rankings of converted values applied a mean importance and weight were confirmed that they were generally changed. Therefore, the ranking decision was better to accomplish objective and rational ranking decision by applying weight that was calculated in grouping of indicator than to judge the singular concept and to be useful in assessment of diverse National Trust site. In the future, because AHP, which was general method of calculating weight, was lacked, there was to understand the critical point to fix a pertinent weight, and to carry out the study applying engineering concept like fuzzy integral using $\lambda-measure$.

A Study on Competitive Factor of Domestic Construction Firm (국내 건설기업의 경쟁력 평가요소에 관한 연구)

  • Jung Dae-Ryung;Kim Jae-Jun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
    • /
    • 2004.11a
    • /
    • pp.584-587
    • /
    • 2004
  • After the IMF bailout, the Environment of Domestic Construction Industry had changed dramatically Therefore the IMF, Domestic Construction Firms are secured by the government regulations and some traditional Practices. However, due to the following reasons: a decrease in public works, an increase in uncertainty of market prediction, the change of bid system, and increase in construction firms, recently the competition among construction firms has became keen. Under the serious competition, In order that medium-size construction firms survive in the construction market, it is need to establish the strategy that could increase productivity. In order to establish the strategy, firstly, construction firms should set up an appraisal standard of construction firms. This paper propose a suitable appraisal standard that construction firm's strategy establish in environment change of the construction industry.

  • PDF