• Title/Summary/Keyword: system uncertainty

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Analysis of the Impact of Resource Allocation Strategy on the Scheduling of Core Defense Technology Project Agreements (자원배분 전략에 따른 국방핵심기술 과제 협약일정에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Jangeun Kim;Euiyoung Jeong;Soondo Hong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.47 no.3
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    • pp.8-17
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    • 2024
  • There is a demand for introducing a challenging and innovative R&D system to develop new technologies to generate weapon system requirements. Despite the increasing trend in annual core technology development tasks, the infrastructure expansion, including personnel in research management institutions, is relatively insufficient. This situation continuously exposes difficulties in task planning, selection, execution, and management. Therefore, there is a pressing need for strategies to initiate timely research and development and enhance budget execution efficiency through the streamlining of task agreement schedules. In this study, we propose a strategic model utilizing a flexible workforce model, considering constraints and optimizing workload distribution through resource allocation to minimize bottlenecks for efficient task agreement schedules. Comparative analysis with the existing operational environment confirms that the proposed model can handle an average of 67 more core technology development tasks within the agreement period compared to the baseline. In addition, the risk management analysis, which considered the probabilistic uncertainty of the fluctuating number of core technology research and development projects, confirmed that up to 115 core technology development can be contracted within the year under risk avoidance.

Development and Evaluation of an Ensemble Forecasting System for the Regional Ocean Wave of Korea (앙상블 지역 파랑예측시스템 구축 및 검증)

  • Park, JongSook;Kang, KiRyong;Kang, Hyun-Suk
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.84-94
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    • 2018
  • In order to overcome the limitation of deterministic forecast, an ensemble forecasting system for regional ocean wave is developed. This system predicts ocean wind waves based on the meteorological forcing from the Ensemble Prediction System for Global of the Korea Meteorological Administration, which is consisted of 24 ensemble members. The ensemble wave forecasting system is evaluated by using the moored buoy data around Korea. The root mean squared error (RMSE) of ensemble mean showed the better performance than the deterministic forecast system after 2 days, especially RMSE of ensemble mean is improved by 15% compared with the deterministic forecast for 3-day lead time. It means that the ensemble method could reduce the uncertainty of the deterministic prediction system. The Relative Operating Characteristic as an evaluation scheme of probability prediction was bigger than 0.9 showing high predictability, meaning that the ensemble wave forecast could be usefully applied.

A Study on the dose distribution produced by $^{32}$ P source form in treatment for inhibiting restenosis of coronary artery (관상동맥 재협착 방지를 위한 치료에서 $^{32}$ P 핵종의 선원 형태에 따른 선량분포에 관한 연구)

  • 김경화;김영미;박경배
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.1-7
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    • 1999
  • In this study, the dose distributions of a $^{32}$ p uniform cylindrical volume source and a surface source, a pure $\beta$emitter, were calculated in order to obtain information relevant to the utilization of a balloon catheter and a radioactive stent. The dose distributions of $^{32}$ p were calculated by means of the EGS4 code system. The sources are considered to be distributed uniformly in the volume and on the surface in the form of a cylinder with a radius of 1.5 mm and length of 20 mm. The energy of $\beta$particles emitted is chosen at random in the $\beta$ energy spectrum evaluated by the solution of the Dirac equation for the Coulomb potential. Liquid water is used to simulate the particle transport in the human body. The dose rates in a target at a 0.5mm radial distance from the surface of cylindrical volume and surface source are 12.133 cGy/s per GBq (0.449 cGy/s per mCi, uncertainty: 1.51%) and 24.732 cGy/s per GBq (0.915 cGy/s per mCi, uncertainty: 1.01%), respectively. The dose rates in the two sources decrease with distance in both radial and axial direction. On the basis of the above results, the determined initial activities were 29.69 mCi and 1.2278 $\mu$Ci for the balloon catheter and the radioactive stent using $^{32}$ P isotope, respectively. The total absorbed dose for optimal therapeutic regimen is considered to be 20 Gy and the treatment time in the case of the balloon catheter is less than 3 min. Absorbed doses in targets placed in a radial direction for the two sources were also calculated when it expressed initial activity in a 1 mCi/ml volume activity density for the cylindrical volume source and a 0.1 mCi/cm$^2$ area activity density for the surface source. The absorbed dose distribution around the $^{32}$ P cylindrical source with different size can be easily calculated using our results when the volume activity density and area activity density for the source are known.

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Integrating the Mechanisms of Agricultural Reservoir and Paddy Cultivation to the HSPF-MASA-CREAMS-PADDY System (농업용 저수지와 논 경작을 고려한 HSPF-MASA-CREAMS-PADDY 연계 시스템 개발)

  • Lee, Do Gil;Song, Jung-Hun;Ryu, Jeong Hoon;Lee, Jaenam;Choi, Soon-Kun;Kang, Moon Seong
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.60 no.6
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2018
  • The objectives of this study were to develop a system linking hydrologic and water quality models considering the mechanisms of agricultural reservoir and paddy cultivation and to evaluate whether the developed system simulates hydrologic and water quality processes better than a hydrologic model that do not consider the mechanisms. The system consisted of Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) as a watershed model, Module-based hydrologic Analysis System for Agricultural watersheds (MASA) as reservoir water balance model, and Chemical, Runoff and Erosion from Agricultural Management System-Paddy (CREAMS-PADDY) as a hydrologic and water quality model for paddy fields. This study carried out on the Seolseong-Cheon watershed in Icheon, and the water level and water quality had been monitored for two years at the outlet of the watershed. According to the results of this study, the performance of the simulation using HSPF-MASA-CREAMS-PADDY system was better than others, but they did not show a statistically significant difference. This seemed to be due to the uncertainty of the farming data and the water quality data of the reservoir. Therefore, if accurate input data for the system is obtained, HSPF-MASA-CREAMS-PADDY system could be used to model an agricultural watershed to obtain more realistic results. The results of this study could be utilized to the modeling of agricultural watersheds in Korea where paddy rice cultivation is dominant.

Network human-robot interface at service level

  • Nguyen, To Dong;Oh, Sang-Rok;You, Bum-Jae
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2005.06a
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    • pp.1938-1943
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    • 2005
  • Network human-robot interface is an important research topic. In home application, users access the robotic system directly via voice, gestures or through the network. Users explore a system by using the services provided by this system and to some extend users are enable to participate in a service as partners. A service may be provided by a robot, a group of robots or robots and other network connected systems (distributed sensors, information systems, etc). All these services are done in the network environment, where uncertainty such as the unstable network connection, the availability of the partners in a service, exists. Moreover, these services are controlled by several users, accessing at different time by different methods. Our research aimed at solving this problem to provide a high available level, flexible coordination system. In this paper, a multi-agent framework is proposed. This framework is validated by using our new concept of slave agents, a responsive multi-agent environment, a virtual directory facilitator (VDF), and a task allocation system using contract net protocol. Our system uses a mixed model between distributed and centralized model. It uses a centralized agent management system (AMS) to control the overall system. However, the partners and users may be distributed agents connected to the center through agent communication or centralized at the AMS container using the slave agents to represent the physical agents. The system is able to determine the task allocation for a group of robot working as a team to provide a service. A number of experiments have been conducted successfully in our lab environment using Issac robot, a PDA for user agent and a wireless network system, operated under our multi agent framework control. The experiments show that this framework works well and provides some advantages to existing systems.

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Constructing a Competing Risks Model for the Combined Structure with Dependent Relations (종속적 관계를 갖는 혼합구조에 대한 경쟁적 위험모형의 구축)

  • Park, Seonghwan;Park, Jihyun;Bae, Kiho;Ahn, Suneung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.40 no.3
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    • pp.92-98
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    • 2017
  • The rapid growth of engineering technology and the emergence of systemized and large-scale engineering systems have resulted in complexity and uncertainty throughout the lifecycle activities of engineering systems. This complex and large-scale engineering system consists of numerous components, but system failure can be caused by failure of any one of a number of components. There is a real difficulty in managing such a complex and large-scale system as a part. In order to efficiently manage the system and have high reliability, it is necessary to structure a system with a complex structure as a sub-system. Also, in the case of a system in which cause of failures exist at the same time, it is required to identify the correlation of the components lifetime and utilize it for the design policy or maintenance activities of the system. Competitive risk theory has been used as a theory based on this concept. In this study, we apply the competitive risk theory to the models with combined structure of series and parallel which is the basic structure of most complex engineering systems. We construct a competing risks model and propose a mathematical model of net lifetime and crude lifetime for each cause of failure, assuming that the components consisting a parallel system are mutually dependent. In addition, based on the constructed model, the correlation of cause of failure is mathematically analyzed and the hazard function is derived by dividing into net lifetime and crude lifetime.

The Application of CFD for the Duct System Design of CRW aircraft (CRW 비행체 덕트 시스템 설계를 위한 CFD의 활용)

  • Jung Y. W.;Jun Y. M.;Yang S. S.
    • 한국전산유체공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2003.08a
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    • pp.200-205
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    • 2003
  • The Canard rotor/wing (CRW) aircraft concepts offer great potential for application by allowing the use of a common propulsion system for high-speed cruise and low-speed powered lift. Using the rotor for lift in both flight modes increases its utility. In the hovering mode, the exhausted gas from an gas turbine engine is accelerated through the duct system and it provides the tipjet power for rotor system enough to lift the aircraft. In the cruise mode, the rotor is fixed and the exhausted gas is extracted through the main nozzle, such that the aircraft is able to flight with high speed. The duct system was designed using 1-D fanno line flow theory and empirical data. However, the empirical data of the pressure loss coefficient for various bending and dividing ducts were not enough to design our duct system adaptively. Therefore, using 3-D CFD analysis we obtained the pressure loss coefficient for our duct models and chose the appropriate bending or diving duct type. In this paper, we used the CFD-ACE+ software package for the CFD analysis and the modeling of duct system. Through the 3-D CFD analysis, we investigated also the pressure loss and the velocity distributions of the designed whole duct system as well as the blade duct. Comparing the 3-D CFD result with 1-D analysis result, we lessened the uncertainty of the designed duct system and speculated the problem that was not concerned in design state.

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Design of Stack Monitoring System with Improved Performance (성능이 향상된 Stack Monitoring System의 설계)

  • Jang, Kyeong-Uk;Lee, Joo-Hyun;Lee, Seong-Won;Lee, Seung-Ho
    • Journal of IKEEE
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.299-302
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    • 2016
  • In this paper, we designed the stack monitoring system with improved performance. To block the incoming pulse noise to the amplifier, shield and the power supply impedance are reduced and the power circuit is isolated. The control unit is developed with variable high voltage, adaptive gain, offset and threshold in order to match the scintillation detector characteristic to the apparatus. 300-1500V variable high voltage power circuit is configured applicable to various scintillation detector. Stack monitoring system with improved performance guarantee the efficiency and the reliability by considering the characteristic of various scintillation detector. Developed stack monitoring system is evaluated with certified testing equipment and shows excellent performance with respect to the uncertainty of the sensor test results.

Development of Mapping Method for Liquefaction Hazard in Moderate Seismic Region Considering the Uncertainty of Big Site Investigation Data (빅데이터 지반정보의 불확실성을 고려한 중진지역에서의 액상화 위험도 작성기법 개발)

  • Kwak, Minjung;Ku, Taijin;Choi, Jaesoon
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.17-27
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    • 2015
  • Recently, Korean government has tried out to set up earthquake hazards prevention system. In the system, several geotechnical hazard maps including liquefaction hazard map and landslide hazard map for the whole country have drawn to consider the domestic seismic characteristics. To draw the macro liquefaction hazard map, big data of site investigations in metropolitan areas and provincial areas has to be verified for its application. In this research, we carried out site response analyses using 522 borehole site investigation data in S city during a desirable earthquake. The soil classification was separately compared to shear wave velocity considering the uncertainty of site investigation data. Probability distribution and statistical analysis for the results of site response analyses was applied to the feasibility study. Finally, we suggest a new site amplification coefficient, hereby presented with the similar results of liquefaction hazard mapping using the calculated liquefaction potential index by the site response analyses. Above-mentioned study will be expected to help to follow research and draw liquefaction hazard map in moderate seismic region.

The Method of Quantitative Analysis Based on Big Data Analysis for Explanatory Variables Containing Uncertainty of Energy Consumption in Residential Buildings - Focused on Apartment in Seoul Korea (주거용 건물의 에너지 실사용량의 불확실성을 내포한 설명변수 인자에 대한 빅데이터 분석 기반의 정량화 방법 - 서울지역의 공동주택을 중심으로)

  • Choi, Jun-Woo;Ahn, Seung-Ho;Park, Byung-Hee;Ko, Jung-Lim;Shin, Jee-Woong
    • KIEAE Journal
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.75-81
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    • 2017
  • Purpose: The energy consumption of apartment units is affected by the lifestyle of the residents rather than system technology. In this study the numerical analysis of assumed energy consumption correlation factors with arbitrary value due to uncertainty. It is intended to be used as a simulation correction value which can be utilized as a predicted value of actual energy usage. The correction value of the simulation is set in the developed form of the existing process that derives the actual usage amount. The simulation results used in the existing evaluation system are used to maintain the useful value as the current system evaluation scale and predict the actual capacity. Method: The method of the study is to statistically analyze the data frames of all complexes capable of collecting the annual energy usage and to reconstruct the population by adding the variables that are expected to be correlated. Repeat the data frame configuration with variables that are assumed to be highly correlated with energy use levels. Determine whether there is correlation or not. The intensity of the external characteristics of the building equipment related to the energy consumption is presented as the quantitative value. Result: The correlation between electricity consumption and trading price since 2010 is analyzed as (Correlation coefficient 0.82). These results are higher than (Correlation coefficient 0.79), which is the correlation between residential area and trading price. This paper signifies the starting point of the methodology that broadens the field of view of verification of simulation feasibility limited to the prediction technique focused on the simulation tool and the element technology scope.The diversified phenomenon reproduction method develops the existing energy simulation method.It can be completed with a simulation methodology that can infer actual energy consumption.