• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.179-193
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• 1994

In the development of engineering designs, decisions are required irrespective of the state of completeness and quality of information, and are formulated under conditions of uncertainty. Furthermore, under conditions of uncertainty the design invokes risks. Thus, in the design of the structures, the currently used deterministic design method does not provide a realistic assessment of the actual safety or the reliability of the structures. It is desirable that decisions required in The process of the design invariably must be made based on the reliability analysis. Properties of soil material are subject to more uncertainty than those of other structural material. In the field of soil mechanics and foundation engineering, it needed to develop reliability-based design methods. In order to simplify the reliability analysis or the reliability-based design process of the structures associated with the active earth pressure, it is necessary to find the variation and the distribution type of the active earth pressure calculated from the basic properties of soils. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to obtain the relationship between the variation of the active earth pressure for cohessionless soils calculated by using Rankine formula and the basic soil properties and the distribution type of the earth pressure. A series of regression equations obtained by utilizing the multi-linear regression analysis is suggested in this paper and the sensitivity of the basic soil properties to the variation of The earth pressure is investigated. The type of distribution of the active earth pressure was found to be the beta distribution in most cases or to be very similar to the beta distribution, if the basic soil variables are normally distributed.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
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• v.16 no.6 s.97
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• pp.622-631
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• 2005

In this paper, we reduce 'over and under deviation' and 'over and under testing' which have a cause of uncertainty in electromagnetic radiated immunity test. We analyze continued measurement method of field uniformity and propose new estimate method having the minimum uncertainty condition. We test comparison in 4 anechoic chambers and analyze FDI(Field Deviation Index) which is the minimum deviation excess 6 dB on fields. We obtain that the proposed test method improve 1.193 dB than domestic standard(KN 61000-4-3) and 0.017 dB than international standard (IEC61000-4-3) in every frequency. In the test result 'over and under testing point' have 926 point at every field area and have 118 point at center uniform area. These result know that proposed measurement method have 10 point less at every field area and 9 point less at center uniform area than continued measurement method. The proposed test method have few point more than continued measurement method. Therefore, we confirmed that the proposed test method have the minimum uncertainty in electromagnetic radiated immunity test.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.79-88
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• 2015

Preparations need to be made for Korean pine(Pinus koraiensis) in anticipation of climate change because Korean pine is an endemic species of South Korea and the source of timber and pine nut. Therefore, climate change adaptation policy has been established to conduct an impact assessment on the distribution of Korean pine. Our objective was to predict the distribution of Korean pine while taking into account uncertainty and afforestation conditions. We used the 5th forest types map, a forest site map and BIOCLIM variables. The climate scenarios are RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for uncertainty and the climate models are 5 regional climate models (HadGEM3RA, RegCM4, SNURCM, GRIMs, WRF). The base period for this study is 1971 to 2000. The target periods are the mid-21st century (2021-2050) and the end of the 21st century (2071-2100). This study used the MaxEnt model, and 50% of the presences were randomly set as training data. The remaining 50% were used as test data, and 10 cross-validated replicates were run. The selected variables were the annual mean temperature (Bio1), the precipitation of the wettest month (Bio13) and the precipitation of the driest month (Bio14). The test data's ROC curve of Korean pine was 0.689. The distribution of Korean pine in the mid-21st century decreased from 11.9% to 37.8% on RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The area of Korean pine at an artificial plantation occupied from 32.1% to 45.4% on both RCPs. The areas at the end of the 21st century declined by 53.9% on RCP 4.5 and by 86.0% on RCP 8.5. The area of Korean pine at an artificial plantation occupied 23.8% on RCP 4.5 and 7.2% on RCP 8.5. Private forests showed more of a decrease than national forests for all subsequent periods. Our results may contribute to the establishment of climate change adaptation policies for considering various adaptation options.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.347-358
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• 2012

The SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) should be calibrated and validated with observed data to secure accuracy of model prediction. Recently, the SWAT-CUP (Calibration and Uncertainty Program for SWAT) software, which can calibrate SWAT using various algorithms, were developed to help SWAT users calibrate model efficiently. In this study, three algorithms (GLUE: Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation, PARASOL: Parameter solution, SUFI-2: Sequential Uncertainty Fitting ver. 2) in the SWAT-CUP were applied for the Soyang-gang dam watershed to evaluate these algorithms. Simulated total streamflow and 0~75% percentile streamflow were compared with observed data, respectively. The NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency) and $R^2$ (Coefficient of Determination) values were the same from three algorithms but the P-factor for confidence of calibration ranged from 0.27 to 0.81 . the PARASOL shows the lowest p-factor (0.27), SUFI-2 gives the greatest P-factor (0.81) among these three algorithms. Based on calibration results, the SUFI-2 was found to be suitable for calibration in Soyang-gang dam watershed. Although the NSE and $R^2$ values were satisfactory for total streamflow estimation, the SWAT simulated values for low flow regime were not satisfactory (negative NSE values) in this study. This is because of limitations in semi-distributed SWAT modeling structure, which cannot simulated effects of spatial locations of HRUs (Hydrologic Response Unit) within subwatersheds in SWAT. To solve this problem, a module capable of simulating groundwater/baseflow should be developed and added to the SWAT system. With this enhancement in SWAT/SWAT-CUP, the SWAT estimated streamflow values could be used in determining standard flow rate in TMDLs (Total Maximum Daily Load) application at a watershed.

• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.155-164
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• 2006

It is judged that there could be certainty in every process of analyzing environmental samples using Liquid Scintillation Counter. Therefore, this study focuses on quantitative evaluation on uncertainty in an effort to analyze comparatively accurately environmental samples. For this, after parameters which can have an effect on uncertainty was derived, the evaluation on each parameter was tamed out. The results of analysis of each parameter showed that the effect according to the weight difference of Teflon vial did not appear, and that standard deviations of SQP(E) averages reached saturation point at $75{\sim}90$ sec at the result of making increases step by step the irradiation time of External standard, and that values measured by repeat method produces good results compared with replicate. Also, conclusion was derived that analysis on sample after it is left in cold and dark room at least above 1,000 minutes have to be carried out, and the result of carrying out verification on results measured as well as equipment itself using radioactivity-error-analysis and chi-square test, resonable result was derived.

• Journal of the Korean Vacuum Society
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.249-255
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• 2010

Methods of the characteristics evaluation of turbo-molecular pumps (TMP) are well-defined in the international measurement standards such as ISO, PNEUROP, DIN, JIS, and AVS. The Vacuum Center in the Korea Research Institute of Standards and Science (KRISS) has recently designed, constructed, and established the integrated characteristics evaluation system of TMPs based on the international documents by continuously pursuing and acquiring the reliable international credibility through measurement perfection. The measurement of TMP pumping speed is normally performed with the throughput and orifice methods dependent on the mass flow regions. However, in the UHV range of the molecular flow region, the high uncertainties of the gauges, mass flow rates, and conductance are too critical to precisely accumulate reliable data. In order to solve the uncertainty problems of pumping speeds in the UHV range, we introduced a SRG with 1% accuracy and a constant volume flow meter (CVFM) to measure the finite mass flow rates down to $10^{-1}$ Pa-L/s with 3% uncertainty for the throughput method. In this way we have performed the measurement of pumping speed down to $10^{-4}$ Pa with an uncertainty of less than 6% for a 1000 L/s TMP. In this article we suggest that the CVFM has an ability to measure the conductance of the orifice experimentally with flowing the known mass through the orifice chambers, so that we may overcome the discontinuity problem encountering during introducing two measurement methods in one pumping speed evaluation sequence.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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• v.47 no.2
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• pp.107-113
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• 2019

In this paper, a robust filter based wind velocity estimation algorithm without an air velocity sensor in an air vehicle is presented. The wind velocity is useful information for the air vehicle to perform precise guidance and control. In general, the wind velocity can be obtained by subtracting an air velocity which is obtained by an air velocity sensor such as a pitot-tube, and a ground velocity which is obtained by a navigation equipment. However, in order to simplify the configuration of the air vehicle, the wind estimation algorithm is necessary because the wind velocity can not be directly obtained if the air velocity measurement sensor is not used. At this time, the aerodynamic coefficient of the air vehicle changes due to the turbulence, which causes the uncertainty of the system model of the filter, and the wind estimation performance deteriorates. Therefore, in this study, we propose a wind estimation method using $H{\infty}$ filter to ensure robustness against aerodynamic coefficient uncertainty, and we confirmed through simulation that the proposed method improves the performance in the uncertainty of aerodynamic coefficient.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.207-213
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• 2023

Computed tomography (CT) images are used as the basis for proton Bragg peak position estimation and treatment plan simulation. During the Hounsfield Unit (HU) based proton stopping power ratio (SPR) estimation, small differences in the patient's density and elemental composition lead to uncertainty in the Bragg peak positions along the path of the proton beam. In this study, we investigated the potential of dual-energy computed tomography image-based proton SPRs prediction accuracy to reduce the uncertainty of Bragg peak position prediction. Single- and dual-energy images of an electron density phantom (CIRS Model 062M electron density phantom, CIRS Inc., Norfolk, VA, USA) were acquired using a computed tomography system (Somatom Definition AS, Siemens Health Care, Forchheim, Germany) to estimate the SPRs of the proton beam. To validate the method, it was compared to the SPRs estimated from standard data provided by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). The results show that the dual-energy image-based method has the potential to improve accuracy in predicting the SPRs of proton beams, and it is expected that further improvements in predicting the position of the proton's Bragg peak will be possible if a wider variety of substitutes with different densities and elemental compositions of the human body are used to predict the SPRs.

• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• v.13 no.5
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• pp.397-402
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• 2003

Generally it is likely that rock mass properties are expressed not by a mean value but by values with variation due to its characteristic uncertainty. This characteristic is one of the most important parts for the design of undergound structures, but yet to be fully examined. Stochastic finite element method (SFEM) is contrary to deterministic finite element method in its concept as the former has been developed in order to take the randomness of structural systems into account. Using SFEM, the response variability of structural system can be obtained and it leads probabilistic stability of structure to be analyzed. In this study, displacement response variability of circular opening with hydrostatic stress field are analyzed in terms of rock mass properties having a certain mean and a standard deviation using the SFEM. The analyzed response variability shows that the necessity of probabilistic stability analysis of underground structures using reliable mean value and standard deviation of deformation modulus.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.19 no.9
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• pp.125-139
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• 2014

In this paper, I propose a response modeling with a Semi-Supervised Support Vector Regression (SS-SVR) algorithm. In order to increase the accuracy and profit of response modeling, unlabeled data in the customer dataset are used with the labeled data during training. The proposed SS-SVR algorithm is designed to be a batch learning to reduce the training complexity. The label distributions of unlabeled data are estimated in order to consider the uncertainty of labeling. Then, multiple training data are generated from the unlabeled data and their estimated label distributions with oversampling to construct the training dataset with the labeled data. Finally, a data selection algorithm, Expected Margin based Pattern Selection (EMPS), is employed to reduce the training complexity. The experimental results conducted on a real-world marketing dataset showed that the proposed response modeling method trained efficiently, and improved the accuracy and the expected profit.