• 천문학회지
• /
• 제53권6호
• /
• pp.139-147
• /
• 2020

The sunspot area is a critical physical quantity for assessing the solar activity level; forecasts of the sunspot area are of great importance for studies of the solar activity and space weather. We developed an innovative hybrid model prediction method by integrating the complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD) and extreme learning machine (ELM). The time series is first decomposed into intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) with different frequencies by CEEMD; these IMFs can be divided into three groups, a high-frequency group, a low-frequency group, and a trend group. The ELM forecasting models are established to forecast the three groups separately. The final forecast results are obtained by summing up the forecast values of each group. The proposed hybrid model is applied to the smoothed monthly mean sunspot area archived at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). We find a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.80% and 9.75, respectively, which indicates that: (1) for the CEEMD-ELM model, the predicted sunspot area is in good agreement with the observed one; (2) the proposed model outperforms previous approaches in terms of prediction accuracy and operational efficiency.

• 천문학회보
• /
• 제38권1호
• /
• pp.61.2-61.2
• /
• 2013

We study chromospheric oscillations including umbral flashes and running penumbral waves in a sunspot using scanning spectroscopy in H-alpha and Ca II 8542A, with the Fast Imaging Solar Spectrograph (FISS) at the 1.6 meter New Solar Telescope at Big Bear Solar Observatory. A bisector method is applied to spectral observations to construct chromospheric Doppler velocity maps. Temporal sequence analysis of these shows enhanced high-frequency oscillations inside the sunspot umbra in both lines. Their peak frequency gradually decreases outward from the umbra. The oscillation power is found to be associated with magnetic-field strength and inclination, with different relationships in different frequency bands.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
• /
• 제24권2호
• /
• pp.91-98
• /
• 2007

The existence of the North-South asymmetry of the solar activity is widely accepted even though the phenomenon is not yet satisfactorily understood. We have studied the temporal variations in the North-South asymmetry of the sunspot area during the period from May in 1874 to April in 2007. The combined data have been examined for periodicity in the solar activity North-South asymmetry. We have found that (i) solar northern and southern hemispheres show an asymmetric behavior, in terms of a sunspot area, (ii) sunspot areas in northern and southern hemispheres show clearly the 11 year periodicity when they were analyzed separately, as they do when analyzed together, (iii) in addition to the general 11 year periodicity in both northern and southern hemisphere solar activities, there are also noticeable shorter periodicities other than the 11 year periodicity in the asymmetry in North-South activity. Finally, we conclude by pointing out the importance of studying the North-South asymmetry of the solar activity.

• 천문학회지
• /
• 제26권2호
• /
• pp.103-114
• /
• 1993

We have analyzed a set of high resolution photographic line profiles of a Zeeman sensitive Fe I $\lambda$ 6302.5 line taken with the Universal Birefringent Filter over a single round sunspot (SPO 5007) at the Sacramento Peak Solar Observatory. The observed spectra recorded on films are traced by PDS and the traced densities are converted to relative intensity by means of IRAF. The Stokes I and V profiles are then constructed by adding together and subtracting from each other the left and right handed circular polarizations, respectively. The reduced I and V profiles are analyzed by means of the coarse analysis(Auer et al.(1977), Skumanich and Lites(1987)) with the use of inversion technique. It is found that the umbral field strength is about 3000 gauss and the field distribution follows closely the emperical model proposed by Wittmann(1974).

• 천문학논총
• /
• 제8권1호
• /
• pp.153-161
• /
• 1993

We analyze 211 data of the daily sunspot observations during the period of January 4 to November 30 in 1993 and present the daily relative sunspot numbers. During 334 days of the period, the preliminary annual average of the relative sunspot numbers is found to be 61.8 based on 27.1 distinct spots in a single group for 3.7 spot groups. According to the appearance of 203 spot groups, our analysis shows that the mean life time of spot group is about 1 day and 15.5 hours. Our records show that more number of sunspots have appeared in the southern hemisphere than in the northern hemisphere by some 2%, indicating that the solar activities of the northern and southern hemisphere are much the same during the period.

• 천문학회지
• /
• 제29권2호
• /
• pp.217-221
• /
• 1996

We have examined morphological change and movements of individual sunspots within a sunspot group in association with a large solar flare activity (3B/X1.5) appeared on 13 May 1981. For this purpose we measured distance among spots during the period before and after the flare activity and estimated the average velocity of their movement. Our main results are as follows: (1) The longitudinal displacement among sunspots are generally greater than the latitudinal displacement. (2) During the period the spots moved with an average velocity of 1.2 km/s in longitude and 0.86 km/s in latitude. (3) The most notable change took place in the central part placed between the two ribbons of the flare.

• 천문학회보
• /
• 제46권1호
• /
• pp.41.1-41.1
• /
• 2021

We generate solar magnetograms and EUV images from Galileo sunspot drawings using a deep learning model based on conditional generative adversarial networks. We train the model using pairs of sunspot drawing from Mount Wilson Observatory (MWO) and their corresponding magnetogram (or UV/EUV images) from 2011 to 2015 except for every June and December by the SDO (Solar Dynamic Observatory) satellite. We evaluate the model by comparing pairs of actual magnetogram (or UV/EUV images) and the corresponding AI-generated one in June and December. Our results show that bipolar structures of the AI-generated magnetograms are consistent with those of the original ones and their unsigned magnetic fluxes (or intensities) are well consistent with those of the original ones. Applying this model to the Galileo sunspot drawings in 1612, we generate HMI-like magnetograms and AIA-like EUV images of the sunspots. We hope that the EUV intensities can be used for estimating solar EUV irradiance at long-term historical times.

• 천문학회보
• /
• 제36권2호
• /
• pp.100.1-100.1
• /
• 2011

Everybody wants to see the future, but nobody does for sure. Reliably forecasting the solar activity in the near future looks like an easy task, but in fact still remains one of difficult problems in the solar-terrestrial research. We have sought for good univariate methods that can predict future smoothed sunspot numbers reasonably well based on past smoothed sunspot number data only. Here we consider a specific method we call principal component-and-autoregression (PCAR) method. The variation of sunspot number during a period of finite duration (past) before an epoch (present) is modeled by a linear combination of a small number of dominant principal components, and this model is extended to the period (future) beyond the epoch using the autoregressive model of finite order. From the application of this method, we find that the $24^{th}$ solar maximum is likely to occur near the end of the year 2013 (and there is a possibility that it occurs earlier near the start of 2013), and to have a peak sunspot number of about 86, indicating that the activity of the $24^{th}$ cycle will be weaker than the average. We will discuss how much this estimate is reliable.

• 천문학논총
• /
• 제14권2호
• /
• pp.91-102
• /
• 1999

We have made intensive calculations on the maximum relative sunspot number and the date of solar maximum of 23rd solar cycle, by using the statistical and precursor methods to predict solar activity cycle. According to our results of solar data processing by statistical method, solar maximum comes at between February and July of 2000 year and at that time, the smoothed sunspot number will reach to $114.3\~122.8$. while precursor method gives rather dispersed value of $118\~17$ maximum sunspot number. It is found that prediction by statistical method using smoothed relative sunspot number is more accurate than by any method to use any data of 10.7cm radio fluxes and geomagnetic aa, Ap indexes, from the full analysis of solar cycle pattern of these data. In fact, current ascending pattern of 23rd solar cycle supports positively our predicted values. Predicted results by precursor method for $Ap_{avg},\;aa_{31-36}$ indexes show similar values to those by statistical method. Therefore, these indexes can be used as new precursors for the prediction of 23rd or next solar cycle.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
• /
• 제31권2호
• /
• pp.145-148
• /
• 2014

There was a research on the prolongation of solar cycle 23 by the solar cyclic variation of solar, interplanetary geomagnetic parameters by Oh & Kim (2013). They also suggested that the sunspot number cannot typically explain the variation of total solar irradiance any more. Instead of the sunspot number, a new index is introduced to explain the degree of solar activity. We have analyzed the frequency of sunspot appearance, the length of solar cycle, and the rise time to a solar maximum as the characteristics of solar cycle. Then, we have examined the predictability of solar activity by the characteristics of preceding solar cycle. We have also investigated the hemispheric variation of flare index for the periods that the leading sunspot has the same magnetic polarity. As a result, it was found that there was a good correlation between the length of preceding solar cycle and spotless days. When the length of preceding solar cycle gets longer, the spotless days increase. It is also shown that the shorter rise time to a solar maximum is highly correlated with the increase of sunspots at a solar maximum. Therefore, the appearance frequency of spotless days and the length of solar cycle are more significant than the general sunspot number as an index of declining solar activity. Additionally, the activity of flares leads in the northern hemisphere and is stronger in the hemisphere with leading sunspots in positive polarity than in the hemisphere with leading sunspots in negative polarity. This result suggests that it is necessary to analyze the magnetic polarity's effect on the flares and to interpret the period from the solar maximum to solar maximum as the definition of solar cycle.