• 제목/요약/키워드: success rate curve

검색결과 31건 처리시간 0.021초

신제품 아이디어 창출유형과 개발 및 사업화 성패에 관한 연구 (The Relationship between the Type of New Product Idea Sources and the Rate of Success of NEW Product Development and Commercialization)

  • 홍종원;용세중
    • 기술혁신연구
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    • 제2권1호
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    • pp.219-241
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    • 1994
  • This paper presents the results of an empirical study on the relationship between the type of new product idea sources and the rate of success of new product development and commercialization in Korean industries. The sample was taken from various Korean industries including telecommunication, electronics, chemical, machinery, textile, etc. and composed of 45 failure and 73 success cases. The findings are not much different from those of previous studies done in the developed countries, but show some typical characteristics of new product development activities and the idea sources, information acquisition methods, type of information , incentives for idea generation, etc. of the firms in developing country like Korea. Especially the survival rate curve and the accumulative investment curve from the idea generation to commercialization phase show a little different behavior from the previous study, which also reflect the manpower, duration of each phase of the new product development process in the Korean firms.

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Gompertz 성장곡선을 이용한 소프트웨어 프로젝트의 개발 성공률과 완료율 추정 (Estimation of Software Project Success and Completion Rate Using Gompertz Growth Function)

  • 이상운
    • 정보처리학회논문지D
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    • 제13D권5호
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    • pp.709-716
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    • 2006
  • 소프트웨어 복잡도가 증가할수록 소프트웨어 성공률은 기하급수적으로 감소하며, 반대로 실패율은 증가한다. 소프트웨어 규모 증가에 따른 실패율은 성장곡선으로 표현할 수 있다. 이 현상에 따라, 본 논문은 Gompertz 성장곡선으로 개발 성공률과 완료율을 추정하였다. 먼저, 수치적으로 제시된 $10^n$의 소프트웨어 규모를 로그값으로 변환시켜 데이터 간격을 일정하게 하였다 로그값의 소프트웨어 규모 변화에 따른 개발 성공률과 완료율의 함수관계를 유도하고자 하였다. 그러나 이 관계를 적절히 표현하는 함수를 찾지 못하였다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 개발 성공률의 역 개념인 실패율과 완료율의 역 개념인 취소율을 도입하였다. 로그값의 소프트웨어 규모 변화에 따른 개발 실패율과 취소율 관계는 성장곡선 형태를 나타내었다. 결론적으로, 개발 취소율과 실패율을 적절히 표현하는 함수로 Gompertz 성장곡선을 적용한 결과 실측 데이터를 적절히 표현할 수 있었다. 본 모델을 적용하면 특정 규모의 소프트웨어에 대한 개발 성공률과 완료율을 보다 정확히 얻을 수 있을 것이다.

로지스틱 회귀분석모델을 활용한 평창군 진부 지역의 산사태 재해의 인명 위험 평가 (Life Risk Assessment of Landslide Disaster in Jinbu Area Using Logistic Regression Model)

  • 라하누마 빈테 라시드 우르미;알-마문;장동호
    • 한국지형학회지
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    • 제27권2호
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    • pp.65-80
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    • 2020
  • This paper deals with risk assessment of life in a landslide-prone area by a GIS-based modeling method. Landslide susceptibility maps can provide a probability of landslide prone areas to mitigate or proper control this problems and to take any development plan and disaster management. A landslide inventory map of the study area was prepared based on past historical information and aerial photography analysis. A total of 550 landslides have been counted at the whole study area. The extracted landslides were randomly selected and divided into two different groups, 50% of the landslides were used for model calibration and the other were used for validation purpose. Eleven causative factors (continuous and thematic) such as slope, aspect, curvature, topographic wetness index, elevation, forest type, forest crown density, geology, land-use, soil drainage, and soil texture were used in hazard analysis. The correlation between landslides and these factors, pixels were divided into several classes and frequency ratio was also extracted. Eventually, a landslide susceptibility map was constructed using a logistic regression model based on entire events. Moreover, the landslide susceptibility map was plotted with a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calculated the area under the curve (AUC) and tried to extract a success rate curve. Based on the results, logistic regression produced an 85.18% accuracy, so we believed that the model was reliable and acceptable for the landslide susceptibility analysis on the study area. In addition, for risk assessment, vulnerability scale were added for social thematic data layer. The study area predictive landslide affected pixels 2,000 and 5,000 were also calculated for making a probability table. In final calculation, the 2,000 predictive landslide affected pixels were assumed to run. The total population causalities were estimated as 7.75 person that was relatively close to the actual number published in Korean Annual Disaster Report, 2006.

고랑인식 센서 모듈을 이용한 밭고랑 자율조향에 대한 연구 (A Study on Furrow Autonomous Steering using Furrow Recognition Sensor Module)

  • 조용준;박관형;윤해룡;홍형길;오장석;강민수;장선호;서갑호;이영태
    • 한국기계가공학회지
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    • 제21권9호
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    • pp.92-97
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    • 2022
  • In this paper, as a research on autonomous steering for agriculture, a sensor module for furrow recognition was developed through a low-cost distance sensor combination. The developed sensor module was applied to the vehicle, and when driving in a furrow curve, the autonomous steering success rate was 100% at a curvature of 20 m or more, and 70% at a curvature of 15 m or less. The self-steering success rate according to the ground condition showed a 100% success rate regardless of soil, weeds, or mulching film.

차선의 회전 방향 인식을 위한 신경회로망 응용 화상처리 (Detection of Lane Curve Direction by Using Image Processing Based on Neural Network)

  • 박종웅;장경영;이준웅
    • 한국자동차공학회논문집
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    • 제7권5호
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    • pp.178-185
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    • 1999
  • Recently, Collision Warning System is developed to improve vehicle safety. This system chiefly uses radar. But the detected vehicle from radar must be decide whether it is the vehicle in the same lane of my vehicle or not. Therefore, Vision System is needed to detect traffic lane. As a preparative step, this study presents the development of algorithm to recognize traffic lane curve direction. That is, the Neural Network that can recognize traffic lane curve direction is constructed by using the information of short distance, middle distance, and decline of traffic lane. For this procedure, the relation between used information and traffic lane curve direction must be analyzed. As the result of application to sampled 2,000 frames, the rate of success is over 90%.t text here.

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Learning fiberoptic intubation for awake nasotracheal intubation

  • Kim, Hyuk;So, Eunsun;Karm, Myong-Hwan;Kim, Hyun Jeong;Seo, Kwang-Suk
    • Journal of Dental Anesthesia and Pain Medicine
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    • 제17권4호
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    • pp.297-305
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    • 2017
  • Background: Fiberoptic nasotracheal intubation (FNI) is performed if it is difficult to open the mouth or if intubation using laryngoscope is expected to be difficult. However, training is necessary because intubation performed by inexperienced operators leads to complications. Methods: Every resident performed intubation in 40 patients. Success of FNI was evaluated as the time of FNI. First intubation time was restricted to 2 min 30 s. If the second attempt was unsuccessful, it was considered a failed case, and a specialist performed nasotracheal intubation. If the general method of intubation was expected to be difficult, awake intubation was performed. The degree of nasal bleeding during intubation was also evaluated. Results: The mean age of the operators (11 men, 7 women) was 27.8 years. FNI was performed in a total of 716 patients. The success rate was 88.3% for the first attempt and 94.6% for the second attempt. The failure rate of intubation in anesthetized patients was 4.9%, and 13.6% in awake patients. When intubation was performed in anesthetized patients, the failure rate from the first to fifth trial was 9.6%, which decreased to 0.7% when the number of trials increased to > 30 times. In terms of awake intubation, there was no failed attempt when the resident had performed the FNI > 30 times. The number of FNIs performed and nasal bleeding were important factors influencing the failure rate. Conclusion: The success rate of FNI increased as the number of FNI performed by residents increased despite the nasal bleeding.

Risk factors affecting the difficulty of fiberoptic nasotracheal intubation

  • Rhee, Seung-Hyun;Yun, Hye Joo;Kim, Jieun;Karm, Myong-Hwan;Ryoo, Seung-Hwa;Kim, Hyun Jeong;Seo, Kwang-Suk
    • Journal of Dental Anesthesia and Pain Medicine
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    • 제20권5호
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    • pp.293-301
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    • 2020
  • Background: The success rate of intubation under direct laryngoscopy is greatly influenced by laryngoscopic grade using the Cormack-Lehane classification. However, it is not known whether grade under direct laryngoscopy can also affects the success rate of nasotracheal intubation using a fiberoptic bronchoscpe, so this study investigated the same. In addition, we investigated other factors that influence the success rate of fiberoptic nasotracheal intubation (FNI). Methods: FNI was performed by 18 anesthesiology residents under general anesthesia in patients over 15 years of age who underwent elective oral and maxillofacial operations. In all patients, the Mallampati grade was measured. Laryngeal view grade under direct laryngoscopy, and the degree of secretion and bleeding in the oral cavity was measured and divided into 3 grades. The time required for successful FNI was measured. If the intubation time was > 5 minutes, it was evaluated as a failure and the airway was managed by another method. The failure rate was evaluated using appropriate statistical method. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and area under the curve (AUC) were also measured. Results: A total of 650 patients were included in the study, and the failure rate of FNI was 4.5%. The patient's sex, age, height, weight, Mallampati, and laryngoscopic view grade did not affect the success rate of FNI (P > 0.05). BMI, the number of FNI performed by residents (P = 0.03), secretion (P < 0.001), and bleeding (P < 0.001) grades influenced the success rate. The AUCs of bleeding and secretion were 0.864 and 0.798, respectively, but the AUC of BMI, the number of FNI performed by residents, Mallampati, and laryngoscopic view grade were 0.527, 0.616, 0.614, and 0.544, respectively. Conclusion: Unlike in intubation under direct laryngoscopy, in the case of FNI, oral secretion and nasal bleeding had a significant effect on FNI difficulty than Mallampati grade or Laryngeal view grade.

Wedge Shape Cage in Posterior Lumbar Interbody Fusion : Focusing on Changes of Lordotic Curve

  • Kim, Joon-Seok;Oh, Seong-Hoon;Kim, Sung-Bum;Yi, Hyeong-Joong;Ko, Yong;Kim, Young-Soo
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • 제38권4호
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    • pp.255-258
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    • 2005
  • Objective : Lumbar lordotic curve on L4 to S1 level is important in maintaining spinal sagittal alignment. Although there has been no definite report in lordotic value, loss of lumbar lordotic curve may lead to pathologic change especially in degenerative lumbar disease. This study examines the changes of lumbar lordotic curve after posterior lumbar interbody fusion with wedge shape cage. Methods : We studied 45patients who had undergone posterior lumbar interbody fusion with wedge shape cage and screw fixation due to degenerative lumbar disease. Preoperative and postoperative lateral radiographs were taken and one independent observer measured the change of lordotic curve and height of intervertebral space where cages were placed. Segmental lordotic curve angle was measured by Cobb method. Height of intervertebral space was measured by averaging the sum of anterior, posterior, and midpoint interbody distance. Clinical outcome was assessed on Prolo scale at 1month of postoperative period. Results : Nineteen paired wedge shape cages were placed on L4-5 level and 6 paired same cages were inserted on L5-S1 level. Among them, 18patients showed increased segmental lordotic curve angle. Mean increased segmental lordotic curve angle after placing the wedge shape cages was $1.96^{\circ}$. Mean increased disc height was 3.21mm. No cases showed retropulsion of cage. The clinical success rate on Prolo's scale was 92.0%. Conclusion : Posterior lumbar interbody fusion with wedge shape cage provides increased lordotic curve, increased height of intervertebral space, and satisfactory clinical outcome in a short-term period.

장방형 과채류 자동 랩핑기 개발 (Development of an Automatic Wrapping System for Long Type Fruit-Vegetable)

  • 성시흥;이대원
    • 생물환경조절학회지
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    • 제8권4호
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    • pp.250-256
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    • 1999
  • 본 연구는 랩을 이용하여 장방형 과채류의 자동포장기를 개발하기 위하여 수행되였다. 과채류의 포장은 과채류의 수분유출을 방지하고, 공기공급을 가능하게 하여 과채류의 신선도를 유지 할 수 있을 뿐만 아니라, 과채류를 직접 포장함으로써 운반도중 조기 부패하거나, 표피의 손상을 억제할 수 있다. 또한 포장에 의한 농촌의 일손 부족문제를 해결하고 소포장 단위의 신선한 과채류를 원하는 소비자의 구매욕구를 충족시킬 수 있도록 있는 자동포장기를 개발하였다. 랩을 이용한 장방형과 채류를 1개 이상 자동으로 포장할 수 있는 시스템을 개발하였다. 가지의 포장율은 상품, 중품 모두 포장율이 100%로 매우 우수하게 나타났는데, 이는 포장을 위한 회전단면적이 비교적 균일하고 또한 가지 표면의 물리적 특성 때문으로 판단된다. 오이의 포장율은 매우 우수하였으나, 중품은 상품에 비하여 떨어지는 것으로 조사되었는데, 이는 굽은 정도가 포장율에 영향을 미치기 때문으로 생각된다. 애호박의 포장율은 개수가 증가할수록 떨어지는 것으로 나타났는데, 이는 단면적이 컸기 때문으로 판단된다. 장방형 과채류의 포장개수별 포장효율은 회전단면적의 차이에 따라 효율이 변하는 것을 알 수 있었다.

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로지스틱 회귀분석과 퍼지 기법을 이용한 산사태 취약성 지도작성: 보은군을 대상으로 (Landslide susceptibility mapping using Logistic Regression and Fuzzy Set model at the Boeun Area, Korea)

  • 알-마문;장동호
    • 한국지형학회지
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    • 제23권2호
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    • pp.109-125
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    • 2016
  • This study aims to identify the landslide susceptible zones of Boeun area and provide reliable landslide susceptibility maps by applying different modeling methods. Aerial photographs and field survey on the Boeun area identified landslide inventory map that consists of 388 landslide locations. A total ofseven landslide causative factors (elevation, slope angle, slope aspect, geology, soil, forest and land-use) were extracted from the database and then converted into raster. Landslide causative factors were provided to investigate about the spatial relationship between each factor and landslide occurrence by using fuzzy set and logistic regression model. Fuzzy membership value and logistic regression coefficient were employed to determine each factor's rating for landslide susceptibility mapping. Then, the landslide susceptibility maps were compared and validated by cross validation technique. In the cross validation process, 50% of observed landslides were selected randomly by Excel and two success rate curves (SRC) were generated for each landslide susceptibility map. The result demonstrates the 84.34% and 83.29% accuracy ratio for logistic regression model and fuzzy set model respectively. It means that both models were very reliable and reasonable methods for landslide susceptibility analysis.