• Proceedings of the Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference
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• 2004.11a
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• pp.7-17
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• 2004

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.229-236
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• 2017

Technology foresight is the process which investigate long term science, technology, economic and social effects to derive strategic R&D and future promising technologies. This study shows that new systematic framework based on technology classifications of space and action in human society, future six senses was employed as a new research method for effective process of future technology foresight. In addition, to increase the acceptance, forecasting, and uniqueness of new technology, we derived major issues of future society and demand-base products and services through the new process of ICT future mega trend analysis, the findings and selections of future technology, and future scenario based on human six senses.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.29-48
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• 2012

As the complexity and uncertainty of social and economic systems increase, the strategic foresight that actively and effectively responds to the environmental changes becomes important. A wide range of future forecasting methods are available for strategic foresight. Selecting one of the methods depends on several factors such as availability of time and financial resources and the objectives of the exercise. Although trend extrapolation analysis has been used for many years, scenario planning is being widely used by government and corporate as a tool for strategic decision making in recent years. Generally, scenario planning is carried out through workshop, in which experts with diverse backgrounds exchange information, views, and insights and integrate the diverse viewpoints. However, only a small number of experts can participate in a workshop and citizen opinion is not easily transformed into the policy for the scenario exercise due to the limitation of budget and short duration of a project. It is also much harder to develop creative ideas in the workshop because of the limited time and space. In this study, a new scenario process combining scenario workshop and wiki is proposed to overcome the limitation of scenario workshop. This combined approach can be more productive than using scenario workshop alone when developing new ideas. In this study, we applied the combined approach to develop scenarios for the strategic foresight of future media and present suggestions for improving the process.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.53-74
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• 2010

The creation and acceptance of new technologies has been speeding up dramatically in modern times. There are also significant uncertainties about the future shape of markets, governance and social values that will have an important impact on organizations and their capacity to meet their objectives. These rapid technological and social change and uncertainties make the upsurge of interest in technology foresight, giving rise to its emergence as a global concept and policy tool. A wide range of future methods are available for technology foresight. Selection of methods will depend upon several factors, most notably available and the time financial resources, and the objectives of the exercise. Although Delphi has been widely used for many years, scenario becomes very popular in recent years. The use of scenarios can take better account of the complexity and unpredictability of the economic, social and political environments. Scenarios tell the stories describing paths to different futures, which help organizations make better decisions today. In this study, the scenario method was employed to draw the images of the future of renewable energy. Renewable energy grows dramatically in recent years. However, there is still considerable uncertainty with regard to the potential of renewable energy due to environment regulation, energy costs, and political and economic developments in the main supplier countries for oil and natural gas. Scenario can help us to identify the risks and opportunities when we develop the renewable energy, and to prepare for them. The scenario method is expected to be more utilized in the national technology foresight.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.61-86
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• 2010

This research analyzed on the future energy society of Korea in 2030 using system thinking approach. Key uncertainty factors determining the future energy society were analyzed in a multi disciplinary view point such as politics, economy, society, ecology and technology. Three causal loop diagrams for the future energy system in Korea and related policy leverages were shown as well. 'Global economic trends', 'change of industrial structure' and 'energy price' were identified as key uncertainty factors determining the Korean energy future. Three causal loop diagrams named as 'rate of energy self－sufficiency and alternative energy production', 'economic activity and energy demand' and 'Excavation of new growth engines' were developed. We integrated those causal loop diagrams into one to understand the entire energy system of the future, proposed three strategic scenarios(optimistic, pessimistic and most likely) and discussed implications and limits of this research.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.1-28
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• 2012

This study conducted a qualitative analysis on the Korea's nuclear energy sector in 2030 through scenario-based strategic foresight method. Specifically, the relationships between environmental influencing factors of the future nuclear energy sector was examined from a multi-dimensional perspective on the basis of STEEP analysis and network analysis. In addition, scenario planning method was used with key uncertainty factors (KUF) to create three predictable strategic scenarios including optimistic, business as usual, and pessimistic. Common strategies that need to be urgently pursued as well as the maximum risk avoidance strategies for each scenario were also presented. This study further identified energy pricing, global economic trend, competitiveness in nuclear technology, and marketing capability as key uncertainty factors in the future nuclear energy industry sector. In order to furnish effective export strategy in the future nuclear energy sector, it was also suggested that government policy should adopt following measures as top priorities: securing nuclear safety technology, educating nuclear engineers, securing nuclear resources such as uranium, increasing nuclear capability and so on. The implications and limitations of this study were then discussed based on research findings.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.1460-1470
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• 2015

This paper presents an approach to solve the long-term generation expansion planning problem of the restructured electricity industry using an agent-based environment. The proposed model simulates the generation investment decisions taken by a particular agent (i.e. a generating company) in a market environment taking into account its competitors’ strategic investment. The investment decision of a particular company is modeled taking into account that such company has imperfect foresight on the future system development hence electricity prices. The delay in the construction of new plants is also explicitly modeled, in order to compute accurately the yearly revenues of each agent. On top of a conventional energy market, several capacity incentive mechanisms including capacity payment and capacity market are simulated, so as to assess their impact on the investment promotion for generation expansion. Results provide insight on the investment cycles as well as dynamic system behavior of long-term generation expansion planning in a competitive electricity industry.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.123-129
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• 2016

Through two case studies on the United States and Japan, this research aims to identify the characteristics of disaster management research and thereby provides policy implications for Korea. This paper analyzed government-funded disaster management R&D for each country: the National Science Foundation awarded projects from 2005 to 2015 for the United States, and Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research from 2011 to 2015 managed by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science for Japan. As a result, four following implications were drawn. 1) pursuit of R&SD(Research & Solution Development) instead of R&D, 2) shift from prevention to life-cycle management, 3) necessity of multidisciplinary research, and 4) emphasis on post-disaster investigation.

• Health Policy and Management
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.71-79
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• 2015

With the growth of aging population in Korea, a better care of chronic and other degenerative illnesses is urgently needed. Evidences suggest that this can be achieved through incorporating a wide range of care options, expanding beyond medical interventions. The aim of this study is to analyze the distribution of publically funded research to understand if the Korean research and development funding system matches various approaches and purposes to successfully tackle the chronic care needs of an aging society. We complied the list of funded projects to be analyzed by searching the National Technical Information Service database with key words such as aging society/senescence, chronic diseases, disability, and health promotion. Most projects were based on the biomedical approach with the purpose of establishing the etiology and clinical (treatment) interventions. Health promotion projects showed a distinctive distribution with more percentage of projects based on psycho-behavioral approaches while research on chronic diseases predominantly biomedical. It would be necessary to diversify publically-funded research projects to develop effective and efficient care technologies for the future.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.650-676
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• 2005

It is important to identify the mid and long-term strategic technologies and evaluate technology level for the establishment of national R&D policy to upgrade technology level in Korea. This paper summarizes the result of technology level evaluation for 99 key technologies of 'National Technology Road Map', which consists of 5 visions, of Korea. The technology level, the technological gap between Korea and world-top country, the role of government to upgrade technology level, etc. were investigated by the survey (total 1,067 respondents) and the interview with experts related to key technologies. The average technology level of Korea was $65.1\%$ of that of world-top country and average technological gap was 5.8 years. The technology level of vision I 'Building an Information-Knowledge-Intelligence Society' was $71.6\%$ and highest among 5 visions. The highest technology level among 99 key technologies was $85.6\%$ for 'Digital Broadcasting Technology' and the lowest was $20\%$ for 'weather Control Technology'. The major reasons of technological gap were investigated as the lack of R&D personnel ($23.8\%$), the shortage of R&D funds ($17.8\%$), and the insufficiency of basic research ($15.4\%$), in sequence. The average technology level of USA was evaluated to highest in the world. It was presented that the technological power of China increased rapidly in the expert interview. The result of technology level evaluation would be primary information for various national S&T planning, such as S&T basic plan, S&T foresight, technology road map, etc.