• Atmosphere
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.1-15
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• 2014

This study compared ensemble mean and probability forecasts of snow depth amount associated with winter storm over South Korea on 28 December 2012 at five operational forecast centers (CMA, ECMWF, NCEP, KMA, and UMKO). And cause of difference in predicted snow depth at each Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) was investigated by using THe Observing system Research and Predictability EXperiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) data. This snowfall event occurred due to low pressure passing through South Sea of Korea. Amount of 6 hr accumulated snow depth was more than 10 cm over southern region of South Korea In this case study, ECMWF showed best prediction skill for the spatio-temporal distribution of snow depth. At first, ECMWF EPS has been consistently enhancing the indications present in ensemble mean snow depth forecasts from 7-day lead time. Secondly, its ensemble probabilities in excess of 2~5 cm/6 hour have been coincided with observation frequencies. And this snowfall case could be predicted from 5-day lead time by using 10-day lag ensemble mean 6 hr accumulated snow depth distribution. In addition, the cause of good performances at ECMWF EPS in predicted snow depth amounts was due to outstanding prediction ability of forming inversion layer with below $0^{\circ}C$ temperature in low level (below 850 hPa) according to $35^{\circ}N$ at 1-day lead time.

• Information and Communications Magazine
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• v.15 no.9
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• pp.97-106
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• 1998

It is crucial to predict the variabilities of the near-earth space environment associated with the solar activity, which cause enormous socio-economic impacts on mankind. The geomagnetic storm prediction scheme adopted in this study is designed to predict such variabilities in terms of the geomagnetic indices, AE and Dst, the cross-polar cap potential difference, the energy dissipation rate over the polar ionosphere and associated temperature increase in the thermosphere. The prediction code consists of two parts; prediction of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field based upon actual flare observations and estimation of various electrodynamic quantities mentioned above from the solar wind-magnetosphere coupling function 'epsilon' which is derivable through the predicted solar wind parameters. As a test run, the magnetic storm that occurred in early November, 1993, is simulated and the results are compared with the solar wind and the interplanetary magnetic field measured by the Japanese satellite, Geotail, and the geomagnetic indices obtained from ground magnetic observatories. Although numerous aspects of the code are to be further improved, the comparison between the simulated results and the actual measurements encourages us to use this prediction scheme as the first appoximation in forecasting the disturbances of the near-earth space environment associated with solar flares.

• Journal of Aerospace System Engineering
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.57-62
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• 2015

The satellite orbit is continuously changing due to space environment. Especially for low earth orbit, atmospheric drag plays an important role in the orbit altitude decay. Recently, solar activities are expected to be high, and relevant events are occurring frequently. In this paper, analysis on the impact of geomagnetic storm on LEO satellite orbit is presented. For this, real flight data of KOMPSAT-2, KOMPSAT-3, and KOMPSAT-5 are analyzed by using the daily decay rate of mean altitude is calculated from the orbit determination. In addition, the relationship between the solar flux and geomagnetic index, which are the metrics for solar activities, is statistically analyzed with respect to the altitude decay. The accuracy of orbit prediction with both the fixed drag coefficient and estimated one is examined with the precise orbit data as a reference. The main results shows that the improved accuracy can be achieved in case of using estimated drag coefficient.

• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.32 no.E
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• pp.33-46
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• 1990

Abstract Over 700/0 of the rural land area in Korea is mountainous and small watersheds provide most of the water resources for agricutural use. To provide an appropriate tool for the agricultural water resource development project, SNUA2, a mathematical model for simulating the physical processes governing the precipitation-runoff relationships and predicting the storm and long-term runoff quantities from the small mountainous watersheds was developed. The hydrological characteristics of small mountainous watersheds were reviewed to select appropriate theories for the simulation of the runoff processes, and a deterministic and distributed model was developed. In this, subsurface flows are routed by solving Richard's two dimensional equation, the dynamics of soil moisture contents are simulated by the consideration of phenological factors of canopy plants and surface flows are routed by solving the kinematic wave theory by numerical analysis. As a result of an application test of the model to the Sanglim watershed, peak flow rates of storm runoff were over-estimated by up to 184.2%. The occurence time of peak flow and total runoff volume of storm runoffs simulated were consistent with observed values and the annual runoff volumes were simulated in the error range of less than 5.8%.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.17 no.6
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• pp.1067-1085
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• 2016

Nonstationary features existing in tropical storms have been frequently captured in recent field measurements, and the applicability of the stationary theory to the analysis of wind characteristics needs to be discussed. In this study, a tropical storm called Nakri measured at Taizhou Bridge site based on structural health monitoring (SHM) system in 2014 is analyzed to give a comparison of the stationary and nonstationary characteristics. The stationarity of the wind records in the view of mean and variance is first evaluated with the run test method. Then the wind data are respectively analyzed with the traditional stationary model and the wavelet-based nonstationary model. The obtained wind characteristics such as the mean wind velocity, turbulence intensity, turbulence integral scale and power spectral density (PSD) are compared accordingly. Also, the stationary and nonstationary PSDs are fitted to present the turbulence energy distribution in frequency domain, among which a modulating function is included in the nonstationary PSD to revise the non-monotonicity. The modulated nonstationary PSD can be utilized to unconditionally simulate the turbulence presented by the nonstationary wind model. The results of this study recommend a transition from stationarity to nonstationarity in the analysis of wind characteristics, and further in the accurate prediction of wind-induced vibrations for engineering structures.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.13-24
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• 2002

In a physically realistic but simplified manner, an attempt is made in this study to develop a predictive model for swash hydrodynamics across the shore due to the storm waves on an arbitrary beach profile. Date from the SUPERTANK laboratory Data Collection Project are used for the model development, in which experiments were designed to simulate dune erosion under storm conditions at a prototype scale. The model predicts variations of swash height, velocity and period across the beach face in a swash zone. In general, the model proves to be capable of predicting variations of swash height, velocity and period across the shore. Quantitatively better predictions for the swash parameters could be achieved by improving the prediction of the beach face elevation, ymax, where the significant swash height becomes zero.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2021.06a
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• pp.142-142
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• 2021

An arbitrary representation of an urban drainage sewer system was devised using a geographic information system (GIS) tool in order to calculate the surface and subsurface flow interaction for simulating urban flood. The proposed methodology is a mean to supplement the unavailability of systematized drainage system using high-resolution digital elevation(DEM) data in under-developed countries. A modified DEM was also developed to represent the flood propagation through buildings and road system from digital surface models (DSM) and barely visible streams in digital terrain models (DTM). The manhole, sewer pipe and storm drain parameters are obtained through field validation and followed the guidelines from the Plumbing law of the Philippines. The flow discharge from surface to the devised sewer pipes through the storm drains are calculated. The resulting flood simulation using the modified DEM was validated using the observed flood inundation during a rainfall event. The proposed methodology for constructing a hypothetical drainage system allows parameter adjustments such as size, elevation, location, slope, etc. which permits the flood depth prediction for variable factors the Plumbing law. The research can therefore be employed to simulate urban flood forecasts that can be utilized from traffic advisories to early warning procedures during extreme rainfall events.

• Water Engineering Research
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• v.3 no.2
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• pp.113-122
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• 2002

Accurate quantitative forecasting of rainfall for basins with a short response time is essential to predict flash floods. In this study, a Quantitative Flood Forecasting (QFF) model was developed by incorporating the evolving structure and frequency of intense weather systems and by using neural network approach. Besides using radiosonde and rainfall data, the model also used the satellite-derived characteristics of storm systems such as tropical cyclones, mesoscale convective complex systems and convective cloud clusters as input. The convective classification and tracking system (CCATS) was used to identify and quantify storm properties such as lifetime, area, eccentricity, and track. As in standard expert prediction systems, the fundamental structure of the neural network model was learned from the hydroclimatology of the relationships between weather system, rainfall production and streamflow response in the study area. All these processes stretched leadtime up to 18 hours. The QFF model will be applied to the mid-Atlantic region of United States in a forthcoming paper.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2006.05a
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• pp.574-578
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• 2006

Tidal amplification by construction of the sea-dike and sea-walls had been detected not only near Mokpo Harbor but also at Chungkye Bay which is connected with Mokpo Harbor by a narrow channel. This brings about increase of tidal flat area and in particular increase of surge-wave combined runup during storms. The purpose of this study is to examine an efficient operational model that can be used by civil defense agencies for real-time prediction and fast warnings on wind waves and storm surges. Instead of using commercialized wave models such as WAM, SWAN, the wind waves are simulated by using a new concept of wavelength modulation to enhance broader application of the hyperbolic wave model of the mild-slope equation type. Furthermore, The predicting system is composed of easy and economical tools for inputting depth data of complex bathymetry and enormous tidal flats such as Mokpo coastal zone. The method is applied to Chungkye Bay, and possible inundation features at Mokpo Harbor are analyzed.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers Conference
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• 2001.10a
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• pp.335-339
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• 2001

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM) Satellite was launched in November 1997, carrying into orbit the first space-borne Precipitation Radar(PR). The purpose of this study is to identify the relationship between TRMM/PR and AWS raingage data, and test the possibility to apply storm runoff prediction. Four TRMM/PR data in 1999 for Yongdam watershed was adopted and made a simple linear regression equation using AWS data. By using the equation, the storm runoff was estimated with the adjusted rainfall. TRMM/PR rainfall and runoff was overall underestimated by the carry-over effect of rainfall error and SCS-CN value selection.