• 제목/요약/키워드: stochastic model

Search Result 1,586, Processing Time 0.031 seconds

Evaluation of the operational efficiency of major coastal ports in China based on the PCA-DEA model (PCA-DEA 모델을 기반으로 한 중국 주요연안 항만의 운영 효율성 평가)

  • Haiqing Zhang;Hyangsook Lee
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
    • /
    • v.40 no.1
    • /
    • pp.87-118
    • /
    • 2024
  • Coastal ports play an essential role in developing a country and a city. Port efficiency is an important factor affecting port trade, and the importance of port efficiency for port performance has been recognized in previous literature. DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) and SFA (Stochastic Frontier Analysis) are widely used in this field of research. However, these two methods are limited in selecting input and output variables. In addition, the literature studies on Chinese coastal ports mainly focus on the study of port clusters in local areas, which lacks a holistic approach and generally lacks up-to-date data. Therefore, to fill the gap in this area of research, this paper introduces a model combining principal component analysis and data envelopment analysis to analyze the operational efficiency of the top 17 coastal ports in China in terms of throughput based on the most recent data available in 2021. This paper identifies container throughput as the output variable, and 13 second indicators are selected as input variables from four primary indicators: land, capital, labor, and infrastructure. Four principal components were selected from 13 second indicators using PCA.After that, DEA (BBC) and DEA (CCR) were used to analyze the 17 ports, among which five were Shanghai, Ningbo-Zhoushan, Guangzhou, Xiamen, and Dongguan, respectively, DEA efficient, and the remaining 12 ports were non-DEA efficient. Finally, improvement directions for each port are derived, and brief suggestions are made. This paper provides some reference value for developing and constructing coastal ports in China.

Bending analysis of nano-Fe2O3 reinforced concrete slabs exposed to temperature fields and supported by viscoelastic foundation

  • Zouaoui R. Harrat;Mohammed Chatbi;Baghdad Krour;Sofiane Amziane;Mohamed Bachir Bouiadjra;Marijana Hadzima-Nyarko;Dorin Radu;Ercan Isik
    • Advances in concrete construction
    • /
    • v.17 no.2
    • /
    • pp.111-126
    • /
    • 2024
  • During the clinkering stages of cement production, the chemical composition of fine raw materials such as limestone and clay, which include iron oxide (Fe2O3), silicon dioxide (SiO2) and aluminum oxide (Al2O3), significantly influences the quality of the final product. Specifically, the chemical interaction of Fe2O3 with CaO, SiO2 and Al2O3 during clinkerisation plays a key role in determining the chemical reactivity and overall quality of the final cement, shaping the properties of the concrete produced. As an extension, this study aims to investigate the physical effects of incorporating nanosized Fe2O3 particles as fillers in concrete matrices, and their impact on concrete structures, namely slabs. To accurately model the reinforced concrete (RC) slabs, a refined trigonometric shear deformation theory (RTSDT) is used. Additionally, the stochastic Eshelby's homogenization approach is employed to determine the thermoelastic properties of nano-Fe2O3 infused concrete slabs. To ensure comprehensive coverage in the study, the RC slabs undergo various mechanical loads and are exposed to temperature fields to assess their thermo-mechanical performance. Furthermore, the slabs are assumed to rest on a three-parameter viscoelastic foundation, comprising the Winkler elastic springs, Pasternak shear layer and a damping parameter. The equilibrium governing equations of the system are derived using the principle of virtual work and subsequently solved using Navier's technique. The findings indicate that while ferric oxide nanoparticles enhance the mechanical properties of concrete against mechanical loading, they have less favorable effects on its performance against thermal exposure. However, the viscoelastic foundation contributes to mitigating these effects, improving the concrete's overall performance in both scenarios. These results highlight the trade-offs between mechanical and thermal performance when using Fe2O3 nanoparticles in concrete and underscore the importance of optimizing nanoparticle content and loading conditions to improve the structural performance of concrete structures.

Impacts assessment of Climate changes in North Korea based on RCP climate change scenarios II. Impacts assessment of hydrologic cycle changes in Yalu River (RCP 기후변화시나리오를 이용한 미래 북한지역의 수문순환 변화 영향 평가 II. 압록강유역의 미래 수문순환 변화 영향 평가)

  • Jeung, Se Jin;Kang, Dong Ho;Kim, Byung Sik
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
    • /
    • v.21 no.spc
    • /
    • pp.39-50
    • /
    • 2019
  • This study aims to assess the influence of climate change on the hydrological cycle at a basin level in North Korea. The selected model for this study is MRI-CGCM 3, the one used for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Moreover, this study adopted the Spatial Disaggregation-Quantile Delta Mapping (SDQDM), which is one of the stochastic downscaling techniques, to conduct the bias correction for climate change scenarios. The comparison between the preapplication and postapplication of the SDQDM supported the study's review on the technique's validity. In addition, as this study determined the influence of climate change on the hydrological cycle, it also observed the runoff in North Korea. In predicting such influence, parameters of a runoff model used for the analysis should be optimized. However, North Korea is classified as an ungauged region for its political characteristics, and it was difficult to collect the country's runoff observation data. Hence, the study selected 16 basins with secured high-quality runoff data, and the M-RAT model's optimized parameters were calculated. The study also analyzed the correlation among variables for basin characteristics to consider multicollinearity. Then, based on a phased regression analysis, the study developed an equation to calculate parameters for ungauged basin areas. To verify the equation, the study assumed the Osipcheon River, Namdaecheon Stream, Yongdang Reservoir, and Yonggang Stream as ungauged basin areas and conducted cross-validation. As a result, for all the four basin areas, high efficiency was confirmed with the efficiency coefficients of 0.8 or higher. The study used climate change scenarios and parameters of the estimated runoff model to assess the changes in hydrological cycle processes at a basin level from climate change in the Amnokgang River of North Korea. The results showed that climate change would lead to an increase in precipitation, and the corresponding rise in temperature is predicted to cause elevating evapotranspiration. However, it was found that the storage capacity in the basin decreased. The result of the analysis on flow duration indicated a decrease in flow on the 95th day; an increase in the drought flow during the periods of Future 1 and Future 2; and an increase in both flows for the period of Future 3.

Technical Inefficiency in Korea's Manufacturing Industries (한국(韓國) 제조업(製造業)의 기술적(技術的) 효율성(效率性) : 산업별(産業別) 기술적(技術的) 효율성(效率性)의 추정(推定))

  • Yoo, Seong-min;Lee, In-chan
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
    • /
    • v.12 no.2
    • /
    • pp.51-79
    • /
    • 1990
  • Research on technical efficiency, an important dimension of market performance, had received little attention until recently by most industrial organization empiricists, the reason being that traditional microeconomic theory simply assumed away any form of inefficiency in production. Recently, however, an increasing number of research efforts have been conducted to answer questions such as: To what extent do technical ineffciencies exist in the production activities of firms and plants? What are the factors accounting for the level of inefficiency found and those explaining the interindustry difference in technical inefficiency? Are there any significant international differences in the levels of technical efficiency and, if so, how can we reconcile these results with the observed pattern of international trade, etc? As the first in a series of studies on the technical efficiency of Korea's manufacturing industries, this paper attempts to answer some of these questions. Since the estimation of technical efficiency requires the use of plant-level data for each of the five-digit KSIC industries available from the Census of Manufactures, one may consture the findings of this paper as empirical evidence of technical efficiency in Korea's manufacturing industries at the most disaggregated level. We start by clarifying the relationship among the various concepts of efficiency-allocative effciency, factor-price efficiency, technical efficiency, Leibenstein's X-efficiency, and scale efficiency. It then becomes clear that unless certain ceteris paribus assumptions are satisfied, our estimates of technical inefficiency are in fact related to factor price inefficiency as well. The empirical model employed is, what is called, a stochastic frontier production function which divides the stochastic term into two different components-one with a symmetric distribution for pure white noise and the other for technical inefficiency with an asymmetric distribution. A translog production function is assumed for the functional relationship between inputs and output, and was estimated by the corrected ordinary least squares method. The second and third sample moments of the regression residuals are then used to yield estimates of four different types of measures for technical (in) efficiency. The entire range of manufacturing industries can be divided into two groups, depending on whether or not the distribution of estimated regression residuals allows a successful estimation of technical efficiency. The regression equation employing value added as the dependent variable gives a greater number of "successful" industries than the one using gross output. The correlation among estimates of the different measures of efficiency appears to be high, while the estimates of efficiency based on different regression equations seem almost uncorrelated. Thus, in the subsequent analysis of the determinants of interindustry variations in technical efficiency, the choice of the regression equation in the previous stage will affect the outcome significantly.

  • PDF

A Stochastic Study for the Emergency Treatment of Carbon Monoxide Poisoning in Korea (일산화탄소중독(一酸化炭素中毒)의 진료대책(診療對策) 수립(樹立)을 위한 추계학적(推計學的) 연구(硏究))

  • Kim, Yong-Ik;Yun, Dork-Ro;Shin, Young-Soo
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
    • /
    • v.16 no.1
    • /
    • pp.135-152
    • /
    • 1983
  • Emergency medical service is an important part of the health care delivery system, and the optimal allocation of resources and their efficient utilization are essentially demanded. Since these conditions are the prerequisite to prompt treatment which, in turn, will be crucial for life saving and in reducing the undesirable sequelae of the event. This study, taking the hyperbaric chamber for carbon monoxide poisoning as an example, is to develop a stochastic approach for solving the problems of optimal allocation of such emergency medical facility in Korea. The hyperbaric chamber, in Korea, is used almost exclusively for the treatment of acute carbon monoxide poisoning, most of which occur at home, since the coal briquette is used as domestic fuel by 69.6 per cent of the Korean population. The annual incidence rate of the comatous and fatal carbon monoxide poisoning is estimated at 45.5 per 10,000 of coal briquette-using population. It offers a serious public health problem and occupies a large portion of the emergency outpatients, especially in the winter season. The requirement of hyperbaric chambers can be calculated by setting the level of the annual queueing rate, which is here defined as the proportion of the annual number of the queued patients among the annual number of the total patients. The rate is determined by the size of the coal briquette-using population which generate a certain number of carbon monoxide poisoning patients in terms of the annual incidence rate, and the number of hyperbaric chambers per hospital to which the patients are sent, assuming that there is no referral of the patients among hospitals. The queueing occurs due to the conflicting events of the 'arrival' of the patients and the 'service' of the hyperbaric chambers. Here, we can assume that the length of the service time of hyperbaric chambers is fixed at sixty minutes, and the service discipline is based on 'first come, first served'. The arrival pattern of the carbon monoxide poisoning is relatively unique, because it usually occurs while the people are in bed. Diurnal variation of the carbon monoxide poisoning can hardly be formulated mathematically, so empirical cumulative distribution of the probability of the hourly arrival of the patients was used for Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the probability of queueing by the number of the patients per day, for the cases of one, two or three hyperbaric chambers assumed to be available per hospital. Incidence of the carbon monoxide poisoning also has strong seasonal variation, because of the four distinctive seasons in Korea. So the number of the patients per day could not be assumed to be distributed according to the Poisson distribution. Testing the fitness of various distributions of rare event, it turned out to be that the daily distribution of the carbon monoxide poisoning fits well to the Polya-Eggenberger distribution. With this model, we could forecast the number of the poisonings per day by the size of the coal-briquette using population. By combining the probability of queueing by the number of patients per day, and the probability of the number of patients per day in a year, we can estimate the number of the queued patients and the number of the patients in a year by the number of hyperbaric chamber per hospital and by the size of coal briquette-using population. Setting 5 per cent as the annual queueing rate, the required number of hyperbaric chambers was calculated for each province and for the whole country, in the cases of 25, 50, 75 and 100 per cent of the treatment rate which stand for the rate of the patients treated by hyperbaric chamber among the patients who are to be treated. Findings of the study were as follows. 1. Probability of the number of patients per day follows Polya-Eggenberger distribution. $$P(X=\gamma)=\frac{\Pi\limits_{k=1}^\gamma[m+(K-1)\times10.86]}{\gamma!}\times11.86^{-{(\frac{m}{10.86}+\gamma)}}$$ when$${\gamma}=1,2,...,n$$$$P(X=0)=11.86^{-(m/10.86)}$$ when $${\gamma}=0$$ Hourly arrival pattern of the patients turned out to be bimodal, the large peak was observed in $7 : 00{\sim}8 : 00$ a.m., and the small peak in $11 : 00{\sim}12 : 00$ p.m. 2. In the cases of only one or two hyperbaric chambers installed per hospital, the annual queueing rate will be at the level of more than 5 per cent. Only in case of three chambers, however, the rate will reach 5 per cent when the average number of the patients per day is 0.481. 3. According to the results above, a hospital equipped with three hyperbaric chambers will be able to serve 166,485, 83,242, 55,495 and 41,620 of population, when the treatmet rate are 25, 50, 75 and 100 per cent. 4. The required number of hyperbaric chambers are estimated at 483, 963, 1,441 and 1,923 when the treatment rate are taken as 25, 50, 75 and 100 per cent. Therefore, the shortage are respectively turned out to be 312, 791. 1,270 and 1,752. The author believes that the methodology developed in this study will also be applicable to the problems of resource allocation for the other kinds of the emergency medical facilities.

  • PDF

The Phenomenological Comparison between Results from Single-hole and Cross-hole Hydraulic Test (균열암반 매질 내 단공 및 공간 간섭 시험에 대한 현상적 비교)

  • Kim, Tae-Hee;Kim, Kue-Young;Oh, Jun-Ho;Hwang, Se-Ho
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
    • /
    • v.12 no.5
    • /
    • pp.39-53
    • /
    • 2007
  • Generally, fractured medium can be described with some key parameters, such as hydraulic conductivities or random field of hydraulic conductivities (continuum model), spatial and statistical distribution of permeable fractures (discrete fracture network model). Investigating the practical applicability of the well-known conceptual models for the description of groundwater flow in fractured media, various types of hydraulic tests were applied to studies on the highly fractured media in Geumsan, Korea. Results from single-hole packer test show that the horizontal hydraulic conductivities in the permeable media are between $7.67{\times}10^{-10}{\sim}3.16{\times}10^{-6}$ m/sec, with $7.70{\times}10^{-7}$ m/sec arithmetic mean and $2.16{\times}10^{-7}$ m/sec geometric mean. Total number of test interval is 110 at 8 holes. The number of completely impermeable interval is 9, and the low permeable interval - below $1.0{\times}10^{-8}$ m/sec is 14. In other words, most of test intervals are permeable. The vertical distribution of hydraulic conductivities shows apparently the good correlation with the results of flowmeter test. But the results from the cross-hole test show some different features. The results from the cross-hole test are highly related to the connectivity and/or the binary properties of fractured media; permeable and impermeable. From the viewpoint of the connection, the application of the general stochastic approach with a single continuum model may not be appropriate even in the moderately or highly permeable fractured medium. Then, further studies on the investigation method and the analysis procedures should be required for the reasonable and practical design of the conceptual model, with which the binary properties, including permeable/impermeable features, can be described.

Climate Change Impact on Nonpoint Source Pollution in a Rural Small Watershed (기후변화에 따른 농촌 소유역에서의 비점오염 영향 분석)

  • Hwang, Sye-Woon;Jang, Tae-Il;Park, Seung-Woo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.8 no.4
    • /
    • pp.209-221
    • /
    • 2006
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of climate change on the nonpoint source pollution in a small watershed using a mid-range model. The study area is a basin in a rural area that covers 384 ha with a composition of 50% forest and 19% paddy. The hydrologic and water quality data were monitored from 1996 to 2004, and the feasibility of the GWLF (Generalized Watershed Loading function) model was examined in the agricultural small watershed using the data obtained from the study area. As one of the studies on climate change, KEI (Korea Environment Institute) has presented the monthly variation ratio of rainfall in Korea based on the climate change scenario for rainfall and temperature. These values and observed daily rainfall data of forty-one years from 1964 to 2004 in Suwon were used to generate daily weather data using the stochastic weather generator model (WGEN). Stream runoff was calibrated by the data of $1996{\sim}1999$ and was verified in $2002{\sim}2004$. The results were determination coeff, ($R^2$) of $0.70{\sim}0.91$ and root mean square error (RMSE) of $2.11{\sim}5.71$. Water quality simulation for SS, TN and TP showed $R^2$ values of 0.58, 0.47 and 0.62, respectively, The results for the impact of climate change on nonpoint source pollution show that if the factors of watershed are maintained as in the present circumstances, pollutant TN loads and TP would be expected to increase remarkably for the rainy season in the next fifty years.

Mediation analysis of dietary habits, nutrient intakes, daily life in the relationship between working hours of Korean shift workers and metabolic syndrome : the sixth (2013 ~ 2015) Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (교대근무자의 근무시간과 대사증후군의 관계에서 식습관, 영양섭취상태, 일상생활의 매개효과 분석 : 6기 국민건강영양조사 (2013 ~ 2015) 데이터 이용)

  • Kim, Yoona;Kim, Hyeon Hee;Lim, Dong Hoon
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
    • /
    • v.51 no.6
    • /
    • pp.567-579
    • /
    • 2018
  • Purpose: This study examined the mediation effects of dietary habits, nutrient intake, daily life in the relationship between the working hours of Korean shift workers and metabolic syndrome. Methods: Data were collected from the sixth (2013-2015) Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES). The stochastic regression imputation was used to fill missing data. Statistical analysis was performed in Korean shift workers with metabolic syndrome using the SPSS 24 program for Windows and a structural equation model (SEM) using an analysis of moment structure (AMOS) 21.0 package. Results: The model fitted the data well in terms of the goodness of fit index (GFI) = 0.939, root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA) = 0.025, normed fit index (NFI) = 0.917, Tucker-Lewis index (TLI) = 0.984, comparative fit index (CFI) = 0.987, and adjusted goodness of fit index (AGFI) = 0.915. Specific mediation effect of dietary habits (p = 0.023) was statistically significant in the impact of the working hours of shift workers on nutrient intake, and specific mediation effect of daily life (p = 0.019) was statistically significant in the impact of the working hours of shift workers on metabolic syndrome. On the other hand, the dietary habits, nutrient intake and daily life had no significant multiple mediator effects on the working hours of shift workers with metabolic syndrome. Conclusion: The appropriate model suggests that working hours have direct effect on the daily life, which has the mediation effect on the risk of metabolic syndrome in shift workers.

Estimation and Weighting of Sub-band Reliability for Multi-band Speech Recognition (다중대역 음성인식을 위한 부대역 신뢰도의 추정 및 가중)

  • 조훈영;지상문;오영환
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
    • /
    • v.21 no.6
    • /
    • pp.552-558
    • /
    • 2002
  • Recently, based on the human speech recognition (HSR) model of Fletcher, the multi-band speech recognition has been intensively studied by many researchers. As a new automatic speech recognition (ASR) technique, the multi-band speech recognition splits the frequency domain into several sub-bands and recognizes each sub-band independently. The likelihood scores of sub-bands are weighted according to reliabilities of sub-bands and re-combined to make a final decision. This approach is known to be robust under noisy environments. When the noise is stationary a sub-band SNR can be estimated using the noise information in non-speech interval. However, if the noise is non-stationary it is not feasible to obtain the sub-band SNR. This paper proposes the inverse sub-band distance (ISD) weighting, where a distance of each sub-band is calculated by a stochastic matching of input feature vectors and hidden Markov models. The inverse distance is used as a sub-band weight. Experiments on 1500∼1800㎐ band-limited white noise and classical guitar sound revealed that the proposed method could represent the sub-band reliability effectively and improve the performance under both stationary and non-stationary band-limited noise environments.

Modeling and Analysis of Wireless Lan Traffic (무선 랜 트래픽의 분석과 모델링)

  • Yamkhin, Dashdorj;Lee, Seong-Jin;Won, You-Jip
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
    • /
    • v.33 no.8B
    • /
    • pp.667-680
    • /
    • 2008
  • In this work, we present the results of our empirical study on 802.11 wireless LAN network traffic. We collect the packet trace from existing campus wireless LAN infra-structure. We analyzed four different data sets: aggregate traffic, upstream traffic, downstream traffic, tcp only packet trace from aggregate traffic. We analyze the time series aspect of underlying traffic (byte count process and packet count process), marginal distribution of time series, and packet size distribution. We found that in all four data sets there exist long-range dependent property in byte count and packet count process. Inter-arrival distribution is well fitted with Pareto distribution. Upstream traffic, i.e. from the user to Internet, exhibits significant difference in its packet size distribution from the rests. Average packet size of upstream traffic is 151.7 byte while average packet size of the rest of the data sets are all greater than 260 bytes. Packets with full data payloads constitutes 3% and 10% in upstream traffic and the downstream traffic, respectively. Despite the significant difference in packet size distribution, all four data sets have similar Hurst values. The Hurst alone does not properly explain the stochastic characteristics of the underlying traffic. We model the underlying traffic using fractional-ARIMA (FARIMA) and fractional Gaussian Noise (FGN). While the fractional Gaussian Noise based method is computationally more efficient, FARIMA exhibits superior performance in accurately modeling the underlying traffic.