• Title/Summary/Keyword: statistical assessment

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Repetitive model refinement for structural health monitoring using efficient Akaike information criterion

  • Lin, Jeng-Wen
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.1329-1344
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    • 2015
  • The stiffness of a structure is one of several structural signals that are useful indicators of the amount of damage that has been done to the structure. To accurately estimate the stiffness, an equation of motion containing a stiffness parameter must first be established by expansion as a linear series model, a Taylor series model, or a power series model. The model is then used in multivariate autoregressive modeling to estimate the structural stiffness and compare it to the theoretical value. Stiffness assessment for modeling purposes typically involves the use of one of three statistical model refinement approaches, one of which is the efficient Akaike information criterion (AIC) proposed in this paper. If a newly added component of the model results in a decrease in the AIC value, compared to the value obtained with the previously added component(s), it is statistically justifiable to retain this new component; otherwise, it should be removed. This model refinement process is repeated until all of the components of the model are shown to be statistically justifiable. In this study, this model refinement approach was compared with the two other commonly used refinement approaches: principal component analysis (PCA) and principal component regression (PCR) combined with the AIC. The results indicate that the proposed AIC approach produces more accurate structural stiffness estimates than the other two approaches.

Recent Brazilian research on thunderstorm winds and their effects on structural design

  • Riera, Jorge D.;Ponte, Jacinto Jr.
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.111-129
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    • 2012
  • Codes for structural design usually assume that the incident mean wind velocity is parallel to the ground, which constitutes a valid simplification for frequent winds caused by sypnoptic events. Wind effects due to other phenomena, such as thunderstorm downbursts, are simply neglected. In this paper, results of recent and ongoing research on this topic in Brazil are presented. The model of the three-dimensional wind velocity field originated from a downburst in a thunderstorm (TS), proposed by Ponte and Riera for engineering applications, is first described. This model allows the generation of a spatially and temporally variable velocity field, which also includes a fluctuating component of the velocity. All parameters are related to meteorological variables, which are susceptible of statistical assessment. An application of the model in the simulation of the wind climate in a region sujected to both EPS and TS winds is discussed next. It is shown that, once the relevant meteorological variables are known, the simulation of the wind excitation for purposes of design of transmission lines, long-span crossings and similar structures is feasible. Complementing the theoretical studies, wind velocity records during a recent TS event in southern Brazil are presented and preliminary conclusions on the validity of the proposed models discussed.

A Combined Procedure of RSM and LHS for Uncertainty Analyses of CsI Release Fraction Under a Hypothetical Severe Accident Sequence of Station Blackout at Younggwang Nuclear Power Plant Using MAAP3.0B Code

  • Han, Seok-Jung;Tak, Nam-Il;Chun, Moon-Hyun
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.507-521
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    • 1996
  • Quantification of uncertainties in the source term estimations by a large computer code, such as MELCOR and MAAP, is an essential process of the current Probabilistic safety assessment. The main objective of the present study is to investigate the applicability of a combined procedure of the response surface method (RSM) based on input determined from a statistical design and the Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) technique for the uncertainty analysis of CsI release fractions under a Hypothetical severe accident sequence of a station blackout at Younggwang nuclear power plant using MAAP3. OB code as a benchmark problem. On the basis of the results obtained in the present work, the RSM is recommended to be used as a principal tool for an overall uncertainty analysis in source term quantifications, while using the LHS in the calculations of standardized regression coefficients (SRC) and standardized rank regression coefficient (SRRC) to determine the subset of the most important input parameters in the final screening step and to check the cumulative distribution functions obtained by RSM. Verification of the response surface model for its sufficient accuracy is a prerequisite for the reliability of the final results that can be obtained by the combined procedure proposed in the present work.

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Neurobehavioral Deficits and Parkinsonism in Occupations with Manganese Exposure: A Review of Methodological Issues in the Epidemiological Literature

  • Park, Robert M.
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • v.4 no.3
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    • pp.123-135
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    • 2013
  • Exposure to manganese (Mn) is associated with neurobehavioral effects. There is disagreement on whether commonly occurring exposures in welding, ferroalloy, and other industrial processes produce neurologically significant neurobehavioral changes representing parkinsonism. A reviewof methodological issues in the human epidemiological literature onMnidentified: (1) studies focused on idiopathic Parkinson disease without considering manganism, a parkinsonian syndrome; (2) studies with healthy worker effect bias; (3) studies with problematic statistical modeling; and (4) studies arising from case series derived from litigation. Investigations with adequate study design and exposure assessment revealed consistent neurobehavioral effects and attributable subclinical and clinical signs and symptoms of impairment. Twenty-eight studies show an exposure-response relationship between Mn and neurobehavioral effects, including 11 with continuous exposure metrics and six with three or four levels of contrasted exposure. The effects of sustained low-concentration exposures to Mn are consistent with the manifestations of early manganism, i.e., consistent with parkinsonism. This is compelling evidence thatMnis a neurotoxic chemical and there is good evidence that Mn exposures far below the current US standard of $5.0mg/m^3$ are causing impairment.

A Study on the development of the safety work manual of a small construction site that takes advantage of the risk assessment methods (위험성평가 기법을 활용한 소규모 건설현장 안전작업메뉴얼 개발에 관한 고찰)

  • Park, Jun Ho;Park, Hai Chun;Lee, Kyoung Hun
    • Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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    • 2013.04a
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    • pp.301-310
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    • 2013
  • This study compared the disasters in construction field under construction amount of 300,000,000 won and the whole construction fields in order to improve the efficacy of various industrial safety and health policies and services and examined the characteristics of disasters in construction field under 300,000,000 won. It also examined, compared and analyzed the characteristics of disaster in construction field under construction amount of 300,000,000 won that disaster prevention technical experts saw. The subjects of comparison were selected with statistical data of disaster for 2011 and those of disaster in construction field under construction amount of 300,000,000 won from January to August of 2012. And questionnaire was conducted with technical instruction experts of small-sized construction field and priority was drawn, compared and analyzed with AHP. Consequently, the results of different views between actual disaster data and experts' views were obtained. Therefore, this study suggested the characteristics of disaster in construction field under construction amount of 300,000,000 won and presented the methods for improving disaster prevention technical experts.

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The Assessment of Dietitian's Performance by General Characteristics of Employees (산업체 영양사의 직무특성에 대한 근로자의 만족도 분석)

  • Hong, Wan-Su;Jang, Mi-Ra
    • Journal of the Korean Dietetic Association
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.297-306
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    • 2003
  • The purposes of this study were to assess the nutrition service importance and performance level in views of industrial employees and to explore the ways to improve the nutrition service quality. A survey of industrial foodservice operations scatterly located in Korea was undertaken and detailed information was collected from each, including surveys of 1,002 industrial employees. Statistical data analysis was using SAS PC 6.04 for descriptive analysis, t-test, and analysis of variance. The whole industrial employees assessed the importance and performance of the dieticians' role on nutrition service as '4.03' and '3.32' out of 5 respectively, which suggests that the industrial nutrition service needs to be improved. The variables which received higher scores than the average mean were safe meal provision, sanitation management and equipment & facilities management, whereas the score of individual nutrition counselling was low compared to other variables of nutrition service. Dietician's performance level scored by industrial employees was statistically correlated with the effect of industrial foodservice(p<0.01). The groups who scored low performance were characterized by labor work, experience with less than 10 years, single, aged below 29 years old, and female.

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Reliability Analysis for Nonlinear Behavior of Steel Plate using Commercial Structural Software (상용프로그램을 이용한 강판의 비선형 거동에 대한 신뢰성해석)

  • 박석재;김요숙;신영수
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 2001.10a
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    • pp.425-431
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    • 2001
  • In order to take account of the statistical properties of probability variables used in the structural analysis, the conventional approach using the safety factor based on past experience usually estimated the safety of a structure. The real structures could only be analyzed with the error in estimation of loads, material characters and the dimensions of the members. But the errors should be considered systematically in the structural analysis. Structural safety could not precisely be appraised by the traditional structural design concept. Recently, new approach based on the probability concept has been applied to the assessment of structural safety using the reliability concept. In this study, safety of structures will estimated by the reliability analysis with commercial structural software that has the tools of nonlinear elastic-plastic 3-D analysis. Experimental test result is compared to results from this research and Coan/sup 1)/ In this paper, AFOSM(Advanced First-Order Second Moment method) is applied with von Mises, Tresca and Mohr-Coulomb failure criterions. The reliability index β and probability of failure P/sub f/ can be obtained by following this practical procedure as judgement a safety of structures and necessity of reinforcing.

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A Design Variable Study of Plane Stress Element by Reliability Analysis (신뢰성 해석에 의한 평면응력요소의 설계변수 분석)

  • 박석재;최외호;김요숙;신영수
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 2001.04a
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    • pp.102-109
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    • 2001
  • In order to take account of the statistical properties of probability variables used in the structural analysis, the conventional approach using the safety factor based on past experience usually estimated the safety of a structure. The real structures could only be analyzed with the error in estimation of loads, material characters and the dimensions of the members. But the errors should be considered systematically in the structural analysis. Structural safety could not precisely be appraised by the traditional structural design concept. Recently, new approach based on the probability concept has been applied to the assessment of structural safety using the reliability concept. Thus, the computer program by the Probabilistic FEM is developed by incorporating the probabilistic concept into the conventional FEM method. This paper estimated for the reliability of a plane stress structure by Advanced First-Order Second Moment method using von Mises, Tresca and Mohr-Coulomb failure criterions. The reliability index and failure probability of attained by the Monte Carlo Simulation method with the von Mises criterion were same as PFEM, but the Monte Carlo Simulation were very time-consuming. The variance of member thickness and load could influence the reliability and failure probability most sensitively among the design variables from the results of the parameter analysis. And proper failure criterion must be used to design safely.

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Effect of Falls Prevention on Lumbar Stabilization Exercise in Elderly People (허리안정화운동이 노인의 낙상예방에 미치는 효과)

  • Kang, Kwon-Young;Kwon, Hye-Min;Kwon, Oh-Sung
    • Journal of Korean Physical Therapy Science
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.25-32
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    • 2011
  • Background : The aim of this study is to effect of lumbar stabilization exercise on double limb support, balance ability and risk of fall index in elderly people. Methods : A six-week lumbar stabilization program training for improvement of balance ability and prevention of fall down were applied by dividing into ten people of experimental group and ten people of control group for elderly aged below sixty-five more than eighty years who were capable of independent activity of daily living. for double limb support, balance ability and fall index assessment, the TETRAX were used. Results : The double limb support, balance ability and fall index in experimental group indicating changes in statistical significance(p<0.05), But changes in significance were not found of all parts in control group(p>0.05). Conclusion : The above results mean that the lumbar stabilization exercise was effective for promotion of elderly people's double limb support, balance ability and fall index and further study considered need to be more the study relative to effect of fall prevention exercise program.

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Lead and Cadmium Exposure Assessment Using Biomarkers Collected from Children Living in an Industrial Complex Area in Korea

  • Heo, Jina;Lee, Jong-Tae
    • Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.56-63
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    • 2013
  • Children are particularly vulnerable to adverse health effects associated with heavy metal exposure. The goal of this study was to investigate the relationship between proximity to an industry complex and blood lead and urinary cadmium levels for children aged 7-13 who lived in Ulsan where a big petrochemical complex is located. We conducted a questionnaire survey to collect data including sociodemographics, daily habits, residential environment, etc. We also analyzed blood lead and urinary cadmium levels using Atomic Absorption Spectrometry (AAS). Data were analyzed using regression analysis. All statistical analyses were conducted with SAS software version 9.2. We calculated distance by using a Geographic Information System (ArcGIS version 10.0). The geometric mean blood lead level was 1.55 ${\mu}g/dL$ (boys: 1.59 ${\mu}g/dL$, girls: 1.51 ${\mu}g/dL$), and the geometric mean urinary cadmium level was 0.51 ${\mu}g/g$ creatinine (boys: 0.45 ${\mu}g/g$ creatinine, girls: 0.58 ${\mu}g/g$ creatinine). In the results of regression analyses, we found that urinary cadmium levels significantly decreased as distance between residence and industrial complex increased after adjusting for age, gender, income, passive smoking and the length of residence. This result was opposite to that for lead levels. Our observations support the hypothesis that urinary cadmium levels in children are related to their proximity to an industrial complex.