• Title/Summary/Keyword: spatio-temporal trend

Search Result 49, Processing Time 0.025 seconds

Trends of Breast Cancer Incidence in Iran During 2004-2008: A Bayesian Space-time Model

  • Jafari-Koshki, Tohid;Schmid, Volker Johann;Mahaki, Behzad
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
    • /
    • v.15 no.4
    • /
    • pp.1557-1561
    • /
    • 2014
  • Background: Breast cancer is the most frequently diagnosed cancer in women and estimating its relative risks and trends of incidence at the area-level is helpful for health policy makers. However, traditional methods of estimation which do not take spatial heterogeneity into account suffer from drawbacks and their results may be misleading, as the estimated maps of incidence vary dramatically in neighboring areas. Spatial methods have been proposed to overcome drawbacks of traditional methods by including spatial sources of variation in the model to produce smoother maps. Materials and Methods: In this study we analyzed the breast cancer data in Iran during 2004-2008. We used a method proposed to cover spatial and temporal effects simultaneously and their interactions to study trends of breast cancer incidence in Iran. Results: The results agree with previous studies but provide new information about two main issues regarding the trend of breast cancer in provinces of Iran. First, this model discovered provinces with high relative risks of breast cancer during the 5 years of the study. Second, new information was provided with respect to overall trend trends o. East-Azerbaijan, Golestan, North-Khorasan, and Khorasan-Razavi had the highest increases in rates of breast cancer incidence whilst Tehran, Isfahan, and Yazd had the highest incidence rates during 2004-2008. Conclusions: Using spatial methods can provide more accurate and detailed information about the incidence or prevalence of a disease. These models can specify provinces with different health priorities in terms of needs for therapy and drugs or demands for efficient education, screening, and preventive policy into action.

Theoretical construction of solar wind proton temperature anisotropy versus beta inverse correlation

  • Seough, Jungjoon;Yoon, Peter H.;Kim, Khan-Hyuk;Lee, Dong-Hun
    • The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
    • /
    • v.37 no.2
    • /
    • pp.118.1-118.1
    • /
    • 2012
  • In situ observations from the Wind spacecraft that statistically analyzed the solar wind proton at 1 AU has indicated that the measured proton temperature anisotropies seems to be regulated by the oblique instabilities (the mirror and oblique firehose). This result is in contradiction with the prediction of linear kinetic theory that the ion-cyclotron (for ${\beta}_{\parallel}$ < 2) and parallel firehose (for ${\beta}_{\parallel}$ <10) would dominate over the oblique instabilities. Various kinds of physical mechanisms have been suggested to explain this disagreement between the observations and linear theory. All of the suggestions consider the solar wind as a unoform magnetized plasma. However the real space environment is replete with the intermediate spatio-temporal scale variations associated with various physical quantities, such as the magnetic field intensity and the solar wind density. In this paper we present that the pervasive intermediate-scale temporal variation of the local magnetic field intensity can lead to the modification of the proton temperature anisotropy versus beta inverse correlation for temperature-anisotropy-driven instabilities. By means of quasilinear kinetic theory involving such temporal variation, we construct the simulated solar wind proton data distribution associated the magnetic fluctuations in (${\beta}_{\parallel}$, $T_{\perp}/T_{\parallel}$) space. It is shown that the theoretically simulated proton distribution and a general trend of the enhanced fluctuations bounded by the oblique instabilities are consistent with in situ observations. Furthermore, the measure magnetic compressibility can be accounted for by the magnetic spectral signatures of the unstable modes.

  • PDF

The Impact of Climate Change on the Trends of Precipitation Effectiveness Ratio and Runoff Data in South Korea (기후변화에 따른 우리나라 강수효율 및 유출량의 변화특성 분석)

  • Kim, Jong-Pil;Kim, Gwang-Seob
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.44 no.8
    • /
    • pp.683-694
    • /
    • 2011
  • To analyze the regional impact of air temperature increase and precipitation variation on water resources, the variability of precipitation-effectiveness (P-E) ratio which is estimated using precipitation and air temperature data of 59 weather stations operated by the Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA) during 1973~2009 was analyzed. Also runoff data resulting from the Precipitation-Runoff Modelling System (PRMS) modelling were analyzed during 1966~2007. The overall spatio-temporal variability of P-E ratio and runoff data in South Korea is corresponding to the variability of precipitation amount. However some region shows that the P-E ratio decreases even though the trend of precipitation amount increases which may be caused by the air temperature increase. Runoff trend is similar to that of P-E ratio. Precipitation and P-E ratio have decreased all seasons except summer season and it means the reduction of available water resources during those seasons. These variability should be reflected in the spring, fall, and winter water supply strategy.

Comparison of Traffic Crash Characteristics Using Spatio-temporal Analysis in GIS-T (GIS-T 환경에서 시공간분석을 이용한 교통사고 특성 비교 - 도로 폐쇄 전후비교를 중심으로-)

  • Kim, Ho-Yong;Baik, Ho-Jong;Kim, Ji-Sook
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
    • /
    • v.13 no.2
    • /
    • pp.41-53
    • /
    • 2010
  • Traffic safety assessment is often accomplished by analyzing the number of crashes occurring in some geographic space over certain specific time duration. In this paper, we introduce a procedure that can efficiently analyze spatial and temporal changes in traffic crashes before-and-after implementation of a certain traffic controlling measure. For the analysis, crash frequency data before-and-after closing a major highway around St. Louis in Missouri was collected through Transportation Management System(TMS) database that is maintained by Missouri Department of Transportation (MoDOT). In order to identify any spatial and temporal pattern in crashes, each crash is pinpointed on a map using the dynamic segmentation in GIS. Then, the identified pattern is statistically confirmed using an analysis of variance table. The advantage of this approach is to easily assess spatial and temporal trend of crashes that are not readily attainable otherwise. The results from this study can possibly be applied in enhancing the highway safety assessment procedure. This paper also makes several suggestions for future development of a comprehensive transportation data system in Korea which is similar to MoDOT's TMS database.

Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Nighttime Light Brightness of Seoul Metropolitan Area using VIIRS-DNB Data (VIIRS-DNB 데이터를 이용한 수도권 야간 빛 강도의 시·공간 패턴 분석)

  • Zhu, Lei;Cho, Daeheon;Lee, Soyoung
    • Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
    • /
    • v.47 no.2
    • /
    • pp.19-37
    • /
    • 2017
  • Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite Day-Night Band (VIIRS-DNB) data provides a much higher capability for observing and quantifying nighttime light (NTL) brightness in comparison with Defense Meteorological Satellite-Operational Linescan System (DMSP-OLS) data. In South Korea, there is little research on the detection of NTL brightness change using VIIRS-DNB data. This study analyzed the spatial distribution and change of NTL brightness between 2013 and 2016 using VIIRS-DNB data, and detected its spatial relation with possible influencing factors using regression models. The intra-year seasonality of NTL brightness in 2016 was also studied by analyzing the deviation and change clusters, as well as the influencing factors. Results are as follows: 1) The higher value of NTL brightness in 2013 and 2016 is concentrated in Seoul and its surrounding cities, which positively correlated with population density and residential areas, economic land use, and other factors; 2) There is a decreasing trend of NTL brightness from 2013 to 2016, which is obvious in Seoul, with the change of population density and area of industrial buildings as the main influencing factors; 3) Areas in Seoul, and some surrounding areas have high deviation of the intra-year NTL brightness, and 71% of the total areas have their highest NTL brightness in January, February, October, November and December; and 4) Change of NTL brightness between summer and winter demonstrated a significantly positive relation with snow cover area change, and a slightly and significantly negative relation with albedo change.

Development of Land Surface Model for Soyang river basin (소양강댐 유역에 대한 지표수문모형의 구축)

  • Lee, Jaehyeon;Cho, Huidae;Choi, Minha;Kim, Dongkyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.50 no.12
    • /
    • pp.837-847
    • /
    • 2017
  • Land Surface Model (LSM) was developed for the Soyang river basin located in Korean Peninsula to clarify the spatio-temporal variability of hydrological weather parameters. Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model was used as a LSM. The spatial resolution of the model was 10 km and the time resolution was 1 day. Based on the daily flow data from 2007 to 2010, the 7 parameters of the model were calibrated using the Isolated Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm and the model was verified using the daily flow data from 2011 to 2014. The model showed a Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of 0.90 and a correlation coefficient of 0.95 for both calibration and validation periods. The hydrometeorological variables estimated for the Soyang river basin reflected well the seasonal characteristics of summer rainfall concentration, the change of short and shortwave radiation due to temperature change, the change of surface temperature, the evaporation and vegetation increase in the cover layer, and the corresponding change in total evapotranspiration. The model soil moisture data was compared with in-situ soil moisture data. The slope of the trend line relating the two data was 1.087 and correlation coefficient was 0.723 for the Spring, Summer and Fall season. The result of this study suggests that the LSM can be used as a powerful tool in developing precise and efficient water resources plans by providing accurate understanding on the spatio-temporal variation of hydrometeorological variables.

Spatial Data Analysis for the U.S. Regional Income Convergence,1969-1999: A Critical Appraisal of $\beta$-convergence (미국 소득분포의 지역적 수렴에 대한 공간자료 분석(1969∼1999년) - 베타-수렴에 대한 비판적 검토 -)

  • Sang-Il Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
    • /
    • v.39 no.2
    • /
    • pp.212-228
    • /
    • 2004
  • This paper is concerned with an important aspect of regional income convergence, ${\beta}$-convergence, which refers to the negative relationship between initial income levels and income growth rates of regions over a period of time. The common research framework on ${\beta}$-convergence which is based on OLS regression models has two drawbacks. First, it ignores spatially autocorrelated residuals. Second, it does not provide any way of exploring spatial heterogeneity across regions in terms of ${\beta}$-convergence. Given that empirical studies on ${\beta}$-convergence need to be edified by spatial data analysis, this paper aims to: (1) provide a critical review of empirical studies on ${\beta}$-convergence from a spatial perspective; (2) investigate spatio-temporal income dynamics across the U.S. labor market areas for the last 30 years (1969-1999) by fitting spatial regression models and applying bivariate ESDA techniques. The major findings are as follows. First, the hypothesis of ${\beta}$-convergence was only partially evidenced, and the trend substantively varied across sub-periods. Second, a SAR model indicated that ${\beta}$-coefficient for the entire period was not significant at the 99% confidence level, which may lead to a conclusion that there is no statistical evidence of regional income convergence in the US over the last three decades. Third, the results from bivariate ESDA techniques and a GWR model report that there was a substantive level of spatial heterogeneity in the catch-up process, and suggested possible spatial regimes. It was also observed that the sub-periods showed a substantial level of spatio-temporal heterogeneity in ${\beta}$-convergence: the catch-up scenario in a spatial sense was least pronounced during the 1980s.

Spatial-temporal Variations of Nitrate Levels in Groundwater of Jeju Island, Korea: Evaluation of Long-term (1993-2015) Monitoring Data (제주도 지하수질산염 농도의 시·공간적변화 특성: 장기(1993-2015) 모니터링 자료의 평가)

  • Kim, Ho-Rim;Oh, Junseop;Do, Hyun-Kwon;Lee, Kyung-Jin;Hyun, Ik-Hyun;Oh, Sang-Sil;Kam, Sang-Kyu;Yun, Seong-Taek
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
    • /
    • v.51 no.1
    • /
    • pp.15-26
    • /
    • 2018
  • The spatio-temporal variations of nitrate concentrations in groundwater of Jeju Island were evaluated by an analysis of time series groundwater quality data (N = 21,568) that were collected from regional groundwater monitoring (number of wells = 4,835) for up to 20 years between 1993 and 2015. The median concentration of $NO_3-N$ is 2.5 mg/L, which is slightly higher than those reported from regional surveys in other countries. Nitrate concentrations of groundwater in wells tend to significantly vary according to different water usage (of the well), administrative districts, and topographic elevations: nitrate level is higher in low-lying agricultural and residential areas than those in high mountainous areas. The Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen's slope analysis show that nitrate concentration in mid-mountainous areas tends to increase, possibly due to the expansion of agricultural areas toward highland. On the other hand, nitrate concentrations in the Specially Designated Groundwater Quality Protection Zones show the temporally decreasing trend, which implies the efficiency of groundwater management actions in Jeju. Proper measures for sustainable groundwater quality management are suggested in this study.

Estimations and Long-term Trend of Sea-to-air Dimethyl Sulfide (DMS) Flux using Satellite Observation Data (인공위성 관측 자료를 이용한 해양-대기 DMS flux 추정 및 장기 추세 분석)

  • Choi, Yu-Na;Song, Sang-Keun;Han, Seung-Beom;Son, Young-Baek;Park, Yeon-Hee
    • Ocean and Polar Research
    • /
    • v.39 no.3
    • /
    • pp.181-194
    • /
    • 2017
  • The long-term linear trend of global sea-to-air dimethyl sulfide (DMS) flux was analyzed over a 16-year time span (2000~2015), based on satellite observation data. The emission rates of DMS (i.e. DMS flux) in the global ocean were estimated from sea surface DMS concentrations, which were constructed with chlorophyll a (Chl-a) concentrations and mixed layer depths (MLD), and transfer velocity from sea to air, which was parameterized with sea surface wind (SSW) and sea surface temperature (SST). In general, the DMS flux in the global ocean exhibited a gradual decreasing pattern from 2000 (a total of 12.1 Tg/yr) to 2015 (10.7 Tg/yr). For the latitude band ($10^{\circ}$ interval between $0^{\circ}$ and $60^{\circ}$), the DMS flux at the low latitude of the Northern (NH) and Southern hemisphere (SH) was significantly higher than that at the middle latitude. The seasonal mean DMS flux was highest in winter followed by in summer in both hemispheres. From the long-term analysis with the Mann-Kendall (MK) statistical test, a clear downward trend of DMS flux was predicted to be broad over the global ocean during the study period (NH: $-0.001{\sim}-0.036{\mu}mol/m^2/day\;per\;year$, SH: $-0.011{\sim}-0.051{\mu}mol/m^2/day\;per\;year$). These trend values were statistically significant (p < 0.05) for most of the latitude bands. The magnitude of the downward trend of DMS flux at the low latitude in the NH was somewhat higher than that at the middle latitude during most seasons, and vice versa for the SH. The spatio-temporal characteristics of DMS flux and its long-term trend were likely to be primarily affected not only by the SSW (high positive correlation of r = 0.687) but also in part by the SST (r = 0.685).

Trends in Regional Disparity in Cardiovascular Mortality in Korea, 1983-2019

  • Eunji Kim;Jongmin Baek;Min Kim;Hokyou Lee;Jang-Whan Bae;Hyeon Chang Kim
    • Korean Circulation Journal
    • /
    • v.52 no.11
    • /
    • pp.829-843
    • /
    • 2022
  • Background and Objectives: Despite remarkable reduction in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, the burden has remained the leading cause of death. Since little research has focused on regional disparity in CVD mortality, this study aims to investigate its spatiotemporal trends in Korea from 1983 to 2019. Methods: Using the causes of death statistics in Korea, we analyzed the geographic variation in deaths from CVDs from 1983 to 2019. The sex and age-standardized mortality rate was calculated according to the 17 administrative regions. The analyses include all diseases of the circulatory system (International Classification of Diseases-10 codes, I00-I99), along with the following 6 subcategories which were not mutually exclusive: total heart disease (I00-I13 and I20-I51), hypertensive heart disease (I10-I13), ischemic heart disease (I20-I25), myocardial infarction (I21-I23), heart failure (I50), and cerebrovascular disease (I60-I69). Results: Overall, heart failure death rate increased across all regions, and other CVD death rates showed a decreasing trend. Regional disparity in mortality was substantial in the early 1980s but converged over time. In all types of cardiovascular mortality, Busan, Ulsan and Gyeongnam remained the highest, although they showed a downward trend like other regions. Jeju continued to have a relatively low CVD mortality rate. Conclusions: The regional disparity substantially decreased compared to the 1980s. However, the relatively high burden of CVD mortality in the southeastern region has not been fully resolved.