• Title/Summary/Keyword: small failure probability

Search Result 87, Processing Time 0.027 seconds

Optimal Call Control Strategies in a Cellular Mobile Communication System with a Buffer for New Calls (신규호에 대한 지체가 허용된 셀룰라 이동통신시스템에서 최적 호제어 연구)

  • Paik, Chun-hyun;Chung, Yong-joo;Cha, Dong-wan
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
    • /
    • v.23 no.3
    • /
    • pp.135-151
    • /
    • 1998
  • The demand of large capacity in coming cellular systems makes inevitable the deployment of small cells, rendering more frequent handoff occurrences of calls than in the conventional system. The key issue is then how effectively to reduce the chance of unsuccessful handoffs, since the handoff failure is less desirable than that of a new call attempt. In this study, we consider the control policies which give priority to handoff calls by limiting channel assignment for the originating new calls, and allow queueing the new calls which are rejected at their first attempts. On this system. we propose the problem of finding an optimal call control strategy which optimizes the objective function value, while satisfying the requirements on the handoff/new call blocking probabilities and the new call delay. The objective function takes the most general form to include such well-known performance measures as the weighted average carried traffic and the handoff call blocking probability. The problem is formulated into two different linear programming (LP) models. One is based on the direct employment of steady state equations, and the other uses the theory of semi-Markov decision process. Two LP formulations are competitive each other, having its own strength in the numbers of variables and constraints. Extensive experiments are also conducted to show which call control strategy is optimal under various system environments having different objective functions and traffic patterns.

  • PDF

Design of the Staircase Fatigue Tests for the Random Fatigue Limit Model (확률적 피로한도모형하에서 계단형 피로시험의 설계)

  • Seo, Sun-Keun;Park, Jung-Eun;Cho, You-Hee;Song, Suh-Il
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
    • /
    • v.35 no.3
    • /
    • pp.107-117
    • /
    • 2007
  • The fatigue has been considered the most failure mode of metal, ceramic, and composite materials. In this paper, numerical experiments to asses the usefulness of two Dixon's methods(small and large samples) and 14 S-N methods on assumptions of lognormal fatigue limit distribution under RFL(Random Fatigue Limit) model are conducted for staircase(or up-and-down) test and compared by MSE(Mean Squared Error) and bias for estimates of mean log-fatigue limit. Also, guidelines for staircase test plans to choose initial stress level and step size are recommended from numerical experiments including sensitivity analyses. In addition, the parametric bootstrap method to construct a confidence interval for the mean of log-fatigue limit by the percentile method using a transition probability matrix of Markov chain is presented and illustrated with an example.

Uncertainty analysis of containment dose rate for core damage assessment in nuclear power plants

  • Wu, Guohua;Tong, Jiejuan;Gao, Yan;Zhang, Liguo;Zhao, Yunfei
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
    • /
    • v.50 no.5
    • /
    • pp.673-682
    • /
    • 2018
  • One of the most widely used methods to estimate core damage during a nuclear power plant accident is containment radiation measurement. The evolution of severe accidents is extremely complex, leading to uncertainty in the containment dose rate (CDR). Therefore, it is difficult to accurately determine core damage. This study proposes to conduct uncertainty analysis of CDR for core damage assessment. First, based on source term estimation, the Monte Carlo (MC) and point-kernel integration methods were used to estimate the probability density function of the CDR under different extents of core damage in accident scenarios with late containment failure. Second, the results were verified by comparing the results of both methods. The point-kernel integration method results were more dispersed than the MC results, and the MC method was used for both quantitative and qualitative analyses. Quantitative analysis indicated a linear relationship, rather than the expected proportional relationship, between the CDR and core damage fraction. The CDR distribution obeyed a logarithmic normal distribution in accidents with a small break in containment, but not in accidents with a large break in containment. A possible application of our analysis is a real-time core damage estimation program based on the CDR.

Consequence of Floral Herbivory in Vicia cracca (Leguminosae)

  • Gang, Hye-Sun
    • Animal cells and systems
    • /
    • v.2 no.1
    • /
    • pp.55-63
    • /
    • 1998
  • The effects of inflorescence herbivory and flowering time on plant architecture and reproductive yields were examined with a perennial herbacious species, Vicia cracca, occurring in Natick, Massachusetts, USA. Natural herbivory on inflorescences was observed among the total of 157 plants during a growing season. Vegetative and reproductive characters were measured in the field as well as in the lab depending on the characters. Approximately 64% of the plants were subjected to herbivory on inflorescences. Plants were classified into three groups; unbrowsed plants, partially browsed, and totally browsed plants, according to the level of herbivory on inflorescences of each plant. Plants were also categorized by their flowering time such as early vs late flowering plants. Herbivores tended to favor inflorescences on rather small plants, resulting in a pattern of totally contact or partially intact inflorescences on taller plants. The mean number of stems, which was assumed to be a direct result of severe herbivory in this population, differed among herbivory groups. There also was a tendency that plants flowering late in the season had more nodes with more leaves, suggesting that herbivory on stem tips early in the season before flowering might have induced growth of side branches or branchlets along the main stems. Comparison between unbrowsed and partially browsed plants showed that the latter compensated for browsing in terms of numbers of inflorescences, fruits, seeds and seed size (weight), though they did not compensate in flower number. The probability of fruit production (presence vs absence of fruits) and seed weight declined toward the end of the season. These results suggest that resources are deficient at the end of the season. Almost complete reproductive failure in totally browsed plants is attributed to the destruction of inflorescence display and the disadvantage of small vegetative size of those plants. After all, in this population, a moderate level of herbivory on inflorescences did not reduce the maternal fitness of the plants. However, severe herbivory on inflorescences resulted in antagonistic interactions between plants and herbivores.

  • PDF

Morphological classification of Renal Disease Using $^{99m}Tc-DMSA$ Scintigram ($^{99m}Tc-DMSA$ 신티그램을 이용한 신질환 형태 분류)

  • Moon, Tae-Yong
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
    • /
    • v.25 no.2
    • /
    • pp.237-244
    • /
    • 1991
  • $^{99m}Tc-DMSA$ renal scan has been evaluated not only the renal functional cell mass but also some anatomical structures at a loss of the renal parenchymal function. The author classified a renal morphology of the posterior image of $^{99m}Tc-DMSA$ renal scan as the groups of symmetric and asymmetric morphology, the groups of the large, normal and small sized kidneys, the groups of the central photon defects (PD) which could be noted in a dilated pelvocalyceal system due to obstructive uropathy and the cortical photon defects (CD) due to focal parenchymal lesions or scars after a loss of function and the last groups of the single and multiple CD for a suggestion of the clinical usefulness. Regarding to measurement of normal renal size, the longest size of the kidneys were evaluated with 5 cm of a lead scale on the posterior renal image, and those were decided to the limits beteen 104.1 and 119.4 mm as comparison with the renal size of intravenous pyelogram (IVP) in 59 cases who were underwent $^{99m}Tc-DMSA$ and IVP concommitantly. Among 85 cases of PD in $^{99m}Tc-DMSA$ renal scan, the 61 (71.8%) were cases of a dilated pelvocalyceal system related with obstructive uropathy, meanwhile the 28 (27.0%) of 162 cases with CD were cases of obstructive and infectious uropathy. The probability of a presence of some uropathy in cases of CD were 99.3%, meanwhile that of the presence of CD in cases of some uropathy were 37.9%. Besides, there were some specific anatomical findings such as polycystic kidneys with symmetric enlarged kidneys with multiple CD and the kidneys of chronic renal failure and/or hypertension with symmetric small size in $^{99m}Tc-DMSA$ renal stan.

  • PDF

A Comparative Study on ERP performance between Korea and China (한국과 중국 중소기업간의 ERP 성과에 대한 비교 연구)

  • Lee, Mi-Young;Chen, Ting Kan;Jung, Byung-Hwa;Kim, Ki-Joo;Lee, Kuk-Hie
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
    • /
    • v.16 no.2
    • /
    • pp.171-190
    • /
    • 2011
  • As competition has deepened between business institutions, it has been difficult to predict and respond quickly to business environment. Most business firms have started to introduce Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) in order to improve their business environment. However, it increases the probability of failure to implement the systems without considering the structural characterisitcs of the organizations. The paper studies what influence the characteristic variables of organizational structure and management system have on the performance of the ERP systems of small and medium-sized enterprises. Also, since it is important to compare the level of information system of Korea and China in the midst of the rapid growth of Chinese economy, the paper&nbs p;compares the ERP performance of Chinese and Korean small and medium sized enterprises that implemented ERP system.

Risk Assessment for a Steel Arch Bridge System Based upon Response Surface Method Compared with System Reliability (체계신뢰성 평가와 비교한 응답면기법에 의한 강재아치교의 위험성평가)

  • Cho, Tae-Jun
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
    • /
    • v.20 no.3
    • /
    • pp.273-279
    • /
    • 2007
  • Probabilistic Risk Assessment considering statistically random variables is performed for the preliminary design of an Arch Bridge. Component reliabilities of girders have been evaluated using the response surfaces of the design variables at the selected critical sections based on the maximum shear and negative moment locations. Response Surface Method (RSM) is successfully applied for reliability analyses lot this relatively small probability of failure of the complex structure, which is hard to be calculated by Monte-Carlo Simulations or by First Order Second Moment method that can not easily calculate the derivative terms in implicit limit state functions. For the analysis of system reliability, parallel resistance system composed of girders is modeled as a parallel series connection system. The upper and lower probabilities of failure for the structural system have been evaluated and compared with the suggested prediction method for the combination of failure modes. The suggested prediction method for the combination of failure modes reveals the unexpected combinations of element failures in significantly reduced time and efforts, compared with the previous permutation method or conventional system reliability analysis method.

A Practical Study on the New Revenue Estimate Model Of SSM (국내 대형슈퍼의 개량확률모델에 관한 실증연구)

  • Ahn, Sung-Woo;Lee, Sang-Youn;Kim, Pan-Jin;Youn, Myoung-Kil
    • Journal of Distribution Science
    • /
    • v.7 no.3
    • /
    • pp.5-24
    • /
    • 2009
  • In the retail management, store location has an important influence like business skills. The reason for failure to selecting location is that the market analysis model is not popular in business field. It gets worse in supermarket industry. Currently, store developers are relying on simple statistics and the sixth sense as market analysis techniques. lt proves that the market analysis model is not distributed well in the field. This market analysis model can apply to medium and small business market using an existing market analysis model, broad market model. And its study outcome can be theorized as a result. Converse's new retail model can be used as to analyze junction market. Pareto_Huff model can also be used to compute shopping probability. To do so, this study can be divided into walking distance market and driving distance market as a model market. Also it examines industry type such as SM and SSM. By taking consumer survey, condition of consumers to select store will be counted in shopping probability so that it improves the objectivity and reliability. Through this process, derived study outcome can be a new estimated revenue model for practical application of selecting store location in large and medium-sized supermarket.

  • PDF

Performance Evaluation and Forecasting Model for Retail Institutions (유통업체의 부실예측모형 개선에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jung-Uk
    • Journal of Distribution Science
    • /
    • v.12 no.11
    • /
    • pp.77-83
    • /
    • 2014
  • Purpose - The National Agricultural Cooperative Federation of Korea and National Fisheries Cooperative Federation of Korea have prosecuted both financial and retail businesses. As cooperatives are public institutions and receive government support, their sound management is required by the Financial Supervisory Service in Korea. This is mainly managed by CAEL, which is changed by CAMEL. However, NFFC's business section, managing the finance and retail businesses, is unified and evaluated; the CAEL model has an insufficient classification to evaluate the retail industry. First, there is discrimination power as regards CAEL. Although the retail business sector union can receive a higher rating on a CAEL model, defaults have often been reported. Therefore, a default prediction model is needed to support a CAEL model. As we have the default prediction model using a subdivision of indexes and statistical methods, it can be useful to have a prevention function through the estimation of the retail sector's default probability. Second, separating the difference between the finance and retail business sectors is necessary. Their businesses have different characteristics. Based on various management indexes that have been systematically managed by the National Fisheries Cooperative Federation of Korea, our model predicts retail default, and is better than the CAEL model in its failure prediction because it has various discriminative financial ratios reflecting the retail industry situation. Research design, data, and methodology - The model to predict retail default was presented using logistic analysis. To develop the predictive model, we use the retail financial statements of the NFCF. We consider 93 unions each year from 2006 to 2012 to select confident management indexes. We also adapted the statistical power analysis that is a t-test, logit analysis, AR (accuracy ratio), and AUROC (Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristic) analysis. Finally, through the multivariate logistic model, we show that it is excellent in its discrimination power and higher in its hit ratio for default prediction. We also evaluate its usefulness. Results - The statistical power analysis using the AR (AUROC) method on the short term model shows that the logistic model has excellent discrimination power, with 84.6%. Further, it is higher in its hit ratio for failure (prediction) of total model, at 94%, indicating that it is temporally stable and useful for evaluating the management status of retail institutions. Conclusions - This model is useful for evaluating the management status of retail union institutions. First, subdividing CAEL evaluation is required. The existing CAEL evaluation is underdeveloped, and discrimination power falls. Second, efforts to develop a varied and rational management index are continuously required. An index reflecting retail industry characteristics needs to be developed. However, extending this study will need the following. First, it will require a complementary default model reflecting size differences. Second, in the case of small and medium retail, it will need non-financial information. Therefore, it will be a hybrid default model reflecting financial and non-financial information.

Effects of the Recorded Earthquake Data on the Seismic Fragilities of Korean Nuclear Power Plant Structures (한반도 기록지진의 특성이 원자력발전소 구조물의 지진취약도에 미치는 영향 평가)

  • Joe, Yang-Hee;Cho, Sung-Gook
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
    • /
    • v.16 no.3
    • /
    • pp.321-331
    • /
    • 2003
  • Seismic fragility analysis (SFA) has been utilized to evaluate the actual seismic capacity of structure and equipment in nuclear power plants (NPP). This paper briefly introduces an improved method for evaluating seismic fragilities of components of NPP's in Korea. Engineering characteristics of small magnitude earthquake spectra recorded in the Korean peninsula during the last several years are also discussed in this paper. Some significant differences between the Newmark's spectra and the recorded spectra as a site-dependent spectra are assessed. Several comparative SFA's have been performed to evaluate the effects of the recorded earthquakes on the seismic capacities of Korean NPP structures. The results showed that SFA using the Newmark's spectra might over estimate the actual seismic capacities of Korean facilities.