• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.215-225
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• 2011

During the past decade, the performance-based design method of caisson breakwaters has been developed, which allows a certain damage while maintaining the function of the structure. However, the existing method does not consider the changing coastal environment due to climate change impacts so that the stability of the structure is not guaranteed over the lifetime of the structure. In this paper, a time-dependent performance-based design method is developed, which is able to estimate the expected sliding distance and the probability of failure of a caisson breakwater considering the influence of sea level rise and wave height increase due to climate change. Especially, time-dependent probability of failure is calculated by considering the sea level rise and wave height increase as a function of time. The developed method was applied to the East Breakwater of the Hitachinaka Port which is located on the east coast of Japan. It was shown that the influence of wave height increase is much greater than that of sea level rise, because the magnitude of sea level rise is negligibly small compared with the water depth at the breakwater site. Moreover, investigation was made for the change of caisson width due to climate change impacts, which is the main concern of harbor engineers. The longer the structure lifetime, the greater was the increase of caisson width. The required increase of caisson width of the Hitachinaka breakwater whose width is 22 m at present was about 0.5 m and 1.5 m respectively for parabolic and linear wave height increase due to climate change.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.311-330
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• 2007

Model-based predictions of structural behavior are negatively affected by uncertainties of various type and in various stages of the structural analysis. The present paper focusses on dynamic analysis and addresses the effects of uncertainties concerning material and geometric parameters, mainly in the context of modal analysis of large-scale structures. Given the large number of uncertain parameters arising in this case, highly scalable simulation-based methods are adopted, which can deal with possibly thousands of uncertain parameters. In order to solve the reliability problem, i.e., the estimation of very small exceedance probabilities, an advanced simulation method called Line Sampling is used. In combination with an efficient algorithm for the estimation of the most important uncertain parameters, the method provides good estimates of the failure probability and enables one to quantify the error in the estimate. Another aspect here considered is the uncertainty quantification for closely-spaced eigenfrequencies. The solution here adopted represents each eigenfrequency as a weighted superposition of the full set of eigenfrequencies. In a case study performed with the FE model of a satellite it is shown that the effects of uncertain parameters can be very different in magnitude, depending on the considered response quantity. In particular, the uncertainty in the quantities of interest (eigenfrequencies) turns out to be mainly caused by very few of the uncertain parameters, which results in sharp estimates of the failure probabilities at low computational cost.

• Tribology and Lubricants
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• v.30 no.4
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• pp.199-204
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• 2014

Various heat-treated and surface coating methods are used to mitigate abrasion in sliding machine parts. The most cost effective of these methods involves hard coatings such as diamond-like carbon (DLC). DLC has various advantages, including a high level of hardness, low coefficient of friction, and low wear rate. In practice, a supporting layer is generally inserted between the DLC layer and the steel substrate to improve the load carrying capacity. In this study, an indentation and sliding contact problem involving a small, hard, spherical particle and a DLC-coated steel surface is modeled and analyzed using a nonlinear finite element code, MARC, to investigate the influence of the supporting layer thickness on the coating characteristics and the related coating failure mechanisms. The results show that the amount of plastic deformation and the maximum principal stress decrease with an increase in the supporting layer thickness. However, the probability of the high tensile stress within the coating layer causing a crack is greatly increased. Therefore, in the case of DLC coating with a supporting layer, fatigue wear can be another important cause of coating layer failure, together with the generally well-known abrasive wear.

• Journal of Digital Contents Society
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.7-12
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• 2005

The purpose of this study is to study the relability of degree 2 ICR(Interleaved Cydic Ring) network and to compare with the other rings. Two node reliability is the probability that source node communicates with the destination node through a specified time interval for ICR network. The impact for change of failure rate is studied for ICR network for small size of network, the exact value of reliability is calculated but the approximation of average reliability general function from upper bound and lower bound reliability is obtained for large size of it. The reliability of ICR network is compared with it of the other rings according to changing the cycle value of ICR.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.653-659
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• 2002

This paper describes a probabilistic fracture mechanics(PFM) analysis based on Monte Carlo(MC) simulation. In the analysis of CANDU pressure tube, the depth and aspect ratio of an initial semi-elliptical surface crack, a fracture toughness value and delayed hydride cracking(DHC) velocity are assumed to be probabilistic variables. As an example, some failure probabilities of piping and CANDU pressure tube are calculated using MC method with the stratified sampling MC technique, taking analysis conditions of normal operations. In the stratified MC simulation, a sampling space of probabilistic variables is divided into a number of small cells. For the verification of analysis results, a comparison study of the PFM analysis using other commercial code is carried out and a good agreement was observed between those results.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.7 no.4
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• pp.263-274
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• 2011

A reliability-based slope stability assessment method considering fluctuations in the monitored matric suction was proposed for real-time identification of slope risk. The assessment model was based on the limit equilibrium model for infinite slope failure. The first-order reliability method (FORM) was adopted to calculate the probability of slope failure, and results of the model were compared with Monte-Carlo Simulation (MCS) results to validate the accuracy and efficiency of the model. The analysis shows that a model based on Advanced First-Order Reliability Method (AFORM) generates results that are in relatively good agreement with those of the MCS, using a relatively small number of function calls. The contribution of random variables to the slope reliability index was also examined using sensitivity analysis. The results of sensitivity analysis indicate that the effective cohesion c' is a significant variable at low values of mean matric suction, whereas matric suction ($u_a-u_w$) is the most influential factor at high mean suction values. Finally, the reliability indices of an unsaturated model soil slope, which was monitored by a wireless matric suction measurement system, were illustrated as 2D images using the suggested probabilistic model.

• Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.87-96
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• 2012

With a view to determine a safe speed the limit of a manipulator arm, several experiments was performed with a multi-jointed manipulator in maintenance and decommissioning tasks of nuclear facilities. Under the simulated emergency conditions, which were generated with random combinations of manipulator arm speed, failure probability and failure type, response characteristics of human operators to various malfunctions of a manipulator arm were measured in terms of reaction time, number of false alarm, and number of misses. This paper demonstrated that failure type, manipulator axes and manipulator arm speed has significant effects on human reaction time. As a whole the reaction time was slightly increased with manipulator arm speed, which is showed somewhat different pattern due to failure type. The reaction time to an axis acting on a workpiece directly, which could flex and extend, was fastest and much more its standard deviation was small. Various factors which may affect safe speed were also described.

• IE interfaces
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.109-119
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• 2008

Reliability of embedded softwares, as one of factors which affect system reliability, is the probability of failure-free software operation for a specified period of time in a specified environment. and Embedded software is different from general package software because hardware and operating system are tightly coupled to each other. Reliability evaluation models for embedded softwares currently used do not separate estimation and prediction models clearly, and even a standard model has not been proposed yet. In this respect, we choose a reliability estimation model suitable for embedded softwares among software evaluation models being used, and modified the model so as to accomodate recent software environments. In addtion, based on the model, the web-based reliability prediction tool RPX is developed. Finally, an embedded software is analyzed using the tool.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.235-242
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• 2002

In this paper, we develop noninformative priors that are used for estimating the ratio of failure rates under Freund's bivariate exponential distribution. A class of priors is found by matching the coverage probabilities of one-sided Baysian credible interval with the corresponding frequentist coverage probabilities. Also the propriety of posterior under the noninformative priors is proved and the frequentist coverage probabilities are investigated for small samples via simulation study.

• International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.510-519
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• 2015

Concerning the issue of high-dimensions, hybrid uncertainties of randomness and intervals including implicit and highly nonlinear limit state function, reliability analysis based on the hybrid uncertainty reliability mode combining with back propagation neural network (HU-BP neural network) is proposed in this paper. Random variables and interval variables are as input layer of the neural network, after the training and approximation of the neural network, the response variables are obtained through the output layer. Reliability index is calculated by solving the optimization model of the most probable point (MPP) searching in the limit state band. Two numerical cases are used to demonstrate the method proposed in this paper, and finally the method is employed to solving an engineering problem of the aerospace friction plate. For this high nonlinear, small failure probability problem with interval variables, this method could achieve a good analysis result.