• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.217-226
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• 2002

In this paper, we derive noninformative priors for the ratio of failure rates in exponential model. A class of priors is found by matching the coverage probabilities of one-sided Baysian credible interval with the corresponding frequentist coverage probabilities. And we prove that the noninformative prior matches the alternative coverage probabilities and is a HPD matching prior up to the second order. Finally, we provide simulated freqentist coverage probabilities under the derived noninformative prior for small samples.

• Journal of computational fluids engineering
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• v.11 no.1 s.32
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• pp.21-28
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• 2006

Reliability Based Design Optimization(RBDO) is one of the optimization methods that minimize the product failure due to small changes of operating conditions or process errors. It searches the optimum that satisfies the safety margin of each constraint, and it gives stable and reliable designs. However, RBDO requires many times oj computational efforts compared with the conventional deterministic optimization(DO) to evaluate the probability of failure about each constraint, therefore it is hard to apply directly to large-scaled problems such as a flexible wing shape design optimization. For the efficient reliability analysis, the approximate reliability analysis method with the two-point approximation(TPA) is proposed In this study, the lift-to-drag ratio maximization designs are performed with 3-dimensional Navier-Stokes analysis and NASTRAN structural analysis, and the optimization results about the deterministic, FORM and SORM are compared.

• The KIPS Transactions:PartC
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• v.9C no.6
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• pp.945-952
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• 2002

For a successful inter-system handoff, several important issues must be handled and additional new features must be considered. This paper focuses on the cellular structure of small cells which are required for the high density of population and a handoff scheme designed between two heterogenous networks. Incase of inter-system handoff (ISHO), the time required to complete the handoff can vary and depends on the structure of networks. And also the transmission of additional signals can increase the probability of failure for ISHO. Here we propose the sub-boundary cell base station (Sub-BBS) to alleviate the role of the BBS. The Sub-BBS is adjacent to BBS in the same regional mobile network. 쪼en the mobile terminal enters Sub-BBS, the network starts finding a new route and after entering BBS, it initiates the transformation process. The proposed scheme significantly reduces the ISHO failure rate compared to the existing one which is the most recent and known as efficient.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.52 no.1
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• pp.185-191
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• 2020

Plant-specific analyses of an advanced reactor have been performed to assure the structural integrity of the reactor pressure vessel during transient conditions, which are expected to initiate pressurized thermal shock (PTS) events. The vessel failure probabilities from the probabilistic fracture mechanics analyses are combined with the transient frequencies to generate the through-wall cracking frequencies, which are compared to the acceptance criterion. Several sensitivity analyses are performed, focusing on the orientations and sizes of cracks, the copper content, and a flaw distribution model. The results show that the integrity of the reactor vessel is expected to be maintained for long-term operation beyond the design lifetime from the PTS perspective using the design data of the advanced reactor. Moreover, a fluence level exceeding 9×10¹⁹ n/㎠ is found to be acceptable, generating a sufficient margin beyond the design lifetime.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.206-222
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• 1997

The conventional analysis with which justifies government intervention of the private sector's innovation activities is the market failure approach. According to such analysis, fund allocation through autonomous market mechanisms is not optimal in technology financing because of the disparity between the desirable level of investment for society as a whole and that for private firms. To optimize the fund allocation, public policies such as subsidy, preferencial loan and venture capital investment programs are designed for technology development projects performed by private firms. They, however, have not been effective in increasing private investment for such projects. In most cases, it was found that little considerations given to the relationship between uncertainty embodied in technology development projects and each types of financing. With respect to optimizing fund allocation, technology development projects should be financed by different means according to their probability of success and the expected value of technology. Employing various theoretical models on financing decision-making we verify here that technology development projects to be supported by commercial banks or venture capital institutions is limited contingent upon levels of uncertainty adn expected value. Under the assumption that financial institutions are risk averse, loan or investment can be available only if the probability of success of the project is higher than the probability premium and the current market rate of interest. Therefore, the projects that have lower probability of success and/or small expected return are excluded from commercial loan or investment programs. However, the remaining projects, whose probability of success is low but with high expected return, may be applied under government subsidy programs. To achieve optimality of fund allocation and to activate technology financing, we conclude that there should be a systematic division of role among financial institutions including government commercial banks, and venture capital institutions.

• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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• v.21 no.5
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• pp.621-640
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• 2019

Quantitative stability assessment of underground cavities can be presented as a factor of safety based on the Shear Strength Reduction Method (SSRM). Also, SSRM is one of the stability evaluation methods commonly used in slope stability analysis. However, there is a lack of research that considers the relationship between the probability of occurrence of cavities in the ground and the potential failure surface of the slope at the same time. In this study, the effect of small underground cavities on the failure behavior of the slope was analyzed by using SSRM. Considering some of the glaciology studies, there is a case that suggests that there is a cavity effect inside the glacier in the condition that the glacier slides. In this study, the stability evaluation of underground cavities and slope stability analysis, where SSRM is used in geotechnical engineering field, was carried out considering simultaneous conditions. The slope stability analysis according to the shape and position change of underground cavities which are likely to occur in the lower part of a mountain road was analyzed by using SSRM in FLAC3D software and the influence of underground cavities on the slope factor of safety was confirmed. If there are underground cavities near slope potential failure surface, it will affect the calculation of a factor of safety. The results of this study are expected to be basic data on slope stability analysis with small underground cavities.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.45 no.2
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• pp.151-164
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• 2013

A key input for the assessment of Human Error Probabilities (HEPs) with Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) methods is the evaluation of the factors influencing the human performance (often referred to as Performance Shaping Factors, PSFs). In general, the definition of these factors and the supporting guidance are such that their evaluation involves significant subjectivity. This affects the repeatability of HRA results as well as the collection of HRA data for model construction and verification. In this context, the present paper considers the TAsk COMplexity (TACOM) measure, developed by one of the authors to quantify the complexity of procedure-guided tasks (by the operating crew of nuclear power plants in emergency situations), and evaluates its use to represent (objectively and quantitatively) task complexity issues relevant to HRA methods. In particular, TACOM scores are calculated for five Human Failure Events (HFEs) for which empirical evidence on the HEPs (albeit with large uncertainty) and influencing factors are available - from the International HRA Empirical Study. The empirical evaluation has shown promising results. The TACOM score increases as the empirical HEP of the selected HFEs increases. Except for one case, TACOM scores are well distinguished if related to different difficulty categories (e.g., "easy" vs. "somewhat difficult"), while values corresponding to tasks within the same category are very close. Despite some important limitations related to the small number of HFEs investigated and the large uncertainty in their HEPs, this paper presents one of few attempts to empirically study the effect of a performance shaping factor on the human error probability. This type of study is important to enhance the empirical basis of HRA methods, to make sure that 1) the definitions of the PSFs cover the influences important for HRA (i.e., influencing the error probability), and 2) the quantitative relationships among PSFs and error probability are adequately represented.

• Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.307-322
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• 2021

This study developed an analytical methodology for the mechanical integrity of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) cladding tubes under external pinch loads during transportation, with reference to the failure mode specified in the relevant guidelines. Special consideration was given to the degraded characteristics of SNF during dry storage, including oxide and hydride contents and orientations. The developed framework reflected a composite cladding model of elastic and plastic analysis approaches and correlation equations related to the mechanical parameters. The established models were employed for modeling the finite elements by coding their physical behaviors. A mechanical integrity evaluation of 14 × 14 PWR SNF was performed using this system. To ensure that the damage criteria met the applicable legal requirements, stress-strain analysis results were separated into elastic and plastic regions with the concept of strain energy, considering both normal and hypothetical accident conditions. Probabilistic procedures using Monte Carlo simulations and reliability evaluations were included. The evaluation results showed no probability of damage under the normal conditions, whereas there were small but considerably low probabilities under accident conditions. These results indicate that the proposed approach is a reliable predictor of SNF mechanical integrity.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.36 no.3
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• pp.277-293
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• 2024

Shored Mechanically Stabilized Earth (SMSE) walls are types of soil retaining structures that increase soil stability under static and dynamic loads. The damage caused by an earthquake can be determined by evaluating the probabilistic seismic response of SMSE walls. This study aimed to assess the seismic performance of SMSE walls and provide fragility curves for evaluating failure levels. The generated fragility curves can help to improve the seismic performance of these walls through assessing and controlling variables like backfill surface settlement, lateral deformation of facing, and permanent relocation of the wall. A parametric study was performed based on a non-linear elastoplastic constitutive model known as the hardening soil model with small-strain stiffness, HSsmall. The analyses were conducted using PLAXIS 2D, a Finite Element Method (FEM) program, under plane-strain conditions to study the effect of the number of geogrid layers and the axial stiffness of geogrids on the performance of SMSE walls. In this study, three areas of damage (minor, moderate, and severe) were observed and, in all cases, the wall has not completely entered the stage of destruction. For the base model (Model A), at the highest ground acceleration coefficient (1 g), in the moderate damage state, the fragility probability was 76%. These values were 62%, and 54%, respectively, by increasing the number of geogrids (Model B) and increasing the geogrid stiffness (Model C). Meanwhile, the fragility values were 99%, 98%, and 97%, respectively in the case of minor damage. Notably, the probability of complete destruction was zero percent in all models.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.49 no.4
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• pp.710-720
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• 2017

In Korea, many nuclear power plants operate at a single site based on geographical characteristics, but the population density near the sites is higher than that in other countries. Thus, multiunit accidents are a more important consideration than in other countries and should be addressed appropriately. Currently, there are many issues related to a multiunit probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). One of them is the quantification of a multiunit PSA model. A traditional PSA uses a Boolean manipulation of the fault tree in terms of the minimal cut set. However, such methods have some limitations when rare event approximations cannot be used effectively or a very small truncation limit should be applied to identify accident sequence combinations for a multiunit site. In particular, it is well known that seismic risk in terms of core damage frequency can be overestimated because there are many events that have a high failure probability. In this study, we propose a quantification method based on a Monte Carlo approach for a multiunit PSA model. This method can consider all possible accident sequence combinations in a multiunit site and calculate a more exact value for events that have a high failure probability. An example model for six identical units at a site was also developed and quantified to confirm the applicability of the proposed method.