• 한국항공운항학회지
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• 제25권2호
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• pp.12-17
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• 2017

Manned aircraft structural design is based on structural safety factor of 1.5, and this safety factor is equivalent to a probability of failure of between 10-2 and 10-3. The target failure probability of FARs is between 10-6 and 10-9 per flight according to aircraft type. NATO released STANAG 4703 to established the airworthiness requirements for small UAV which is less than 150kg. STANAG 4703 requires the Target Level of Safety according to MTOW. The requirements of failure probability for small UAV is between 10-4 and 10-5. In this paper, requirements of airworthiness certification for small UAV were investigated and the relationship of safety factors to the probability of structural failure is analyzed to reduce measure of safety factor and structural weight of unmanned aircraft.

• 한국지반환경공학회 논문집
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• 제18권3호
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• pp.31-38
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• 2017

본 연구의 목적은 지반공학적 물성정보가 거의 없는 국내 중소규모 댐의 지진 시 파괴확률을 간편하게 산정할 수 있는 도표를 제시하는 것이다. 기존의 댐의 지진 시 파괴확률을 산정하는 방법 및 절차를 검토하여, 댐의 지반공학적 물성정보와는 상관없이 지진 시 파괴확률이 '0'이 되는 지진파괴확률 영곡선을 댐높이-여유고율 평면에서 쌍곡선의 형태로 결정하였다. 국내 중소규모 댐들의 댐높이-여유고율 분포형태가 지진파괴확률 영곡선과 같이 쌍곡선의 형태를 이루는 것을 확인하여, 다수의 등파괴확률 곡선(seismic failure probability contour)이 댐높이-여유고율 평면에서 일정한 간격의 다수의 쌍곡선들로 표시되는 지진파괴확률 산정 도표를 작성하였다. 작성된 도표는 비교적 관리가 잘 되고, 지반공학적인 정보를 충분히 가진 2개의 중소규모 댐들의 지진 시 파괴 확률 산정에 적용하여, 기존 절차와 방법으로 산정된 결과와 비교하여 적용 타당성을 확인하였다. 향후, 제안된 도표는 중소규모댐의 지진대비 보수보강의 투자 우선순위 등을 고려할 때 유용하게 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제36권3호
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• pp.451-461
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• 2016

본 연구의 목적은 소규모 필댐의 지진시 파괴확률을 산정하는 방법과 절차를 예시하고, 지반공학적 정보가 부족한 국내 재해위험 저수지의 지진시 파괴확률을 추정하는 것이다. 이를 위하여, 국내 재해위험 저수지로 지정된 저수지 중 지반공학적인 정보를 얻을 수 있는 7개 저수지에 대해 사건수 분석 기법을 적용하여 지진에 대한 파괴확률을 평가하였으며, 그 방법 및 절차를 예시하였다. 안전진단보고서를 확보한 84개 재해위험 저수지의 댐높이와 여유고와의 관계를 검토하였고, 미공병단 평가도구로 이용되는 파괴확률 산정식을 이러한 댐높이와 여유고와의 관계에 연관시켰다. 이러한 연관관계로부터, 지진시 파괴확률이 '0'이 되는 댐높이-여유고 임계곡선을 도출하였고, 이러한 임계곡선과 7개 저수지에 대해 산정한 지진시 파괴확률로부터 물성확보가 어려운 국내 재해위험 저수지의 개략적인 지진에 대한 파괴확률을 추정하였다.

• 한국지진공학회논문집
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• 제27권3호
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• pp.147-155
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• 2023

This study aims to present a method to evaluate the relative risk of failure due to liquefaction of domestic small to medium-sized earthfill dams with a height of less than 15 m, which has little information on geotechnical properties. Based on the results of previous researches, a series of methods and procedures for estimating the probability of dam failure due to liquefaction, which calculates the probability of liquefaction occurrence of the dam body, the amount of settlement at the dam crest according to the estimation of the residual strength of the dam after liquefaction, the overtopping depth determined from the amount of settlement at the dam crest, and the probability of failure of the dam due to overtopping was explicitly presented. To this end, representative properties essential for estimating the probability of failure due to the liquefaction of small to medium-sized earthfill dams were presented. Since it is almost impossible to directly determine these representative properties for each of the target dams because it is almost impossible to obtain geotechnical property information, they were estimated and determined from the results of field and laboratory tests conducted on existing small to medium-sized earthfill dams in previous researches. The method and procedure presented in this study were applied to 12 earthfill dams on a trial basis, and the liquefaction failure probability was calculated. The analysis of the calculation results confirmed that the representative properties were reasonable and that the overall evaluation procedure and method were effective.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제75권6호
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• pp.771-784
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• 2020

Reliability analysis techniques combining with various surrogate models have attracted increasing attention because of their accuracy and great efficiency. However, they primarily focus on the structures with continuous response, while very rare researches on the reliability analysis for structures with discontinuous response are carried out. Furthermore, existing adaptive reliability analysis methods based on importance sampling (IS) still have some intractable defects when dealing with small failure probability, and there is no related research on reliability analysis for structures involving discontinuous response and small failure probability. Therefore, this paper proposes a novel reliability analysis method called AGPC-IS for such structures, which combines adaptive Gaussian process classification (GPC) and adaptive-kernel-density-estimation-based IS. In AGPC-IS, an efficient adaptive strategy for design of experiments (DoE), taking into consideration the classification uncertainty, the sampling uniformity and the regional classification accuracy improvement, is developed with the purpose of improving the accuracy of Gaussian process classifier. The adaptive kernel density estimation is introduced for constructing the quasi-optimal density function of IS. In addition, a novel and more precise stopping criterion is also developed from the perspective of the stability of failure probability estimation. The efficiency, superiority and practicability of AGPC-IS are verified by three examples.

• 상하수도학회지
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• 제23권3호
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• pp.295-303
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• 2009

In the present study, a reliability analysis calculating the probability of system failure has been performed using cut set and results of numerical analysis for unsteady flow in pipe. Especially, the probability of system failure has been evaluated regarding the effect of valve closure which is a really important activity in operation of piping system. In spite of small amount of demand, it was found that fast valve closure can generate high probability of system failure. Furthermore, it was confirmed that surge tank can reduce the unsteady effects and probability of system failure in water distribution system. From the results, it was found that the unsteady flow has a significant effect on the probability of system failure Furthermore, it was able to find which pipe or cut set has high probability of system failure. So it could be used to determine which pipe or cut set has a priority of repair and replacement. Therefore, reliability analysis regarding unsteady flow has to be performed for the planning, designing, maintenance, and operation of piping system.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.59-67
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• 1991

The hazard estimator is proposed for estimating system failure probability of a general network where all minimal cut sets are given. Theoretical variance of the hazard estimator is derived in a bridge system. It is demonstrated that variance of the hazard estimator is much smaller than that of the raw simulation estimator particularly for small arc failure probability.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제47권4호
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• pp.739-754
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• 2019

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to develop a reliability estimation procedure for the underground gas pipeline in the presence of corrosion defects. Methods: Corrosion is one of the major causes of the gas pipeline failure. Several failure forms caused by corrosion have been studied. Among them, small leak and burst are considered in this paper. The composite failure of the two is defined by limit state function, and it is expressed with pipe parameters. Given a modified corrosion dataset, in order to obtain reliability estimations, the method of first order and second moment is adopted because of its simplicity. The computation processes are conducted with MATLAB coding. Results: According to numerical results, the probability of composite failure is affected by both small leak and burst. In particular, when corrosion depth stays at low level, it is consistent with the probability of burst failure. On the contrary, it is more influenced by the small leak failure as corrosion depth is increasing. In such case, the probability of composite failure is fast approaching to the safety limit. Conclusion: By considering the composite failure, more practical predictions of remaining life can be obtained. The proposed method is useful for maintenance planning of the underground gas pipeline.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제29권2호
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• pp.187-201
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• 2008

Earthquake induced hysteretic energy demand for a structure can be used as a limiting value of a certain performance level in seismic design of structures. In cases where it is larger than the hysteretic energy dissipation capacity of the structure, failure will occur. To be able to select the limiting value of hysteretic energy for a particular earthquake hazard level, it is required to define the variation of hysteretic energy in terms of probabilistic terms. This study focuses on the probabilistic evaluation of earthquake induced worst failure probability and approximate confidence intervals for inelastic single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) systems with a typical steel moment connection based on hysteretic energy. For this purpose, hysteretic energy demand is predicted for a set of SDOF systems subject to an ensemble of moderate and severe EQGMs, while the hysteretic energy dissipation capacity is evaluated through the previously published cyclic test data on full-scale steel beam-to-column connections. The failure probability corresponding to the worst possible case is determined based on the hysteretic energy demand and dissipation capacity. The results show that as the capacity to demand ratio increases, the failure probability decreases dramatically. If this ratio is too small, then the failure is inevitable.

• 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
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• 제1권1호
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• pp.25-36
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• 1996

본 논문은 격자 구조 회선 교환 망에서 발생할 수 있는 호 차단 확률 및 failure model을 설정하여 신뢰도를 분석하였다 특히 failure model에서는 link failure 모델을 고려하였다. 대상 모델은.flooding search routing 방식을 사용하여 패킷을 통화 대상자 노드에 전송하였다. 이때. 각 링크failure는 독립적이라고 가정하였다. 이와 같은 failure모델의 성능을 평가하기 위한 방법으로서 joint probability를 이용하여 소규모 격자 구조 회선 교환망의 신뢰도를 분석해 보았으며. 이를 시뮬레이션 한 값과 비교해 보았다 또한. 통신망에서 주요한 성능 지표중 하나8! 호 차단 확률을 구하여 회선망의 신뢰도를 평가하였다.