• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• 제31권1호
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• pp.63-75
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• 2002

Most attempts at Bayesian analysis of neural networks involve hierarchical modeling. We believe that similar results can be obtained with simpler models that require less computational effort, as long as appropriate restrictions are placed on parameters in order to ensure propriety of posterior distributions. In particular, we adopt a model first introduced by Lee (1999) that utilizes an improper prior for all parameters. Straightforward Gibbs sampling is possible, with the exception of the bias parameters, which are embedded in nonlinear sigmoidal functions. In addition to the problems posed by nonlinearity, direct sampling from the posterior distributions of the bias parameters is compounded due to the duplication of hidden nodes, which is a source of multimodality. In this regard, we focus on sampling from the marginal posterior distribution of the bias parameters with Markov chain Monte Carlo methods that combine traditional Metropolis sampling with a slice sampler described by Neal (1997, 2001). The methods are illustrated with data examples that are largely confined to the analysis of nonparametric regression models.

• KSBB Journal
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• 제10권5호
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• pp.482-490
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• 1995

The relationship between pressure drop and liquid flow rate, for an axial and a radial flow chromatographic column packed with compressible porous media was theoretically analyzed using modified Kozeny-Carman equation. The results were compared with experimental observations obtained using compressible DEAE-agarose as a model medium. At 2-9 psi range studied, the theoretical derivation accounting for 'gel compression' effect predicted simple Langmuirian type response of volumetric flow rate to changes in pressure drop. On the other hand, the experimental response was more or less sigmoidal. At the same pressure drop, radial column showed 2-3 times higher flow rates than those of axial column both theoretically and experimentally. Using r-HBsAg crude extract, protein resolution effects between the two types of columns at different flow rates were compared side-by-side. It turned out that, though general chromatographic behavior was very similar, axial column was somewhat superior in terms of r-HBsAg recovery yield and specificity. However, the number of theoretical plates analysis indicated the protein resolution effects were comparable.

• 천문학회보
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• 제44권2호
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• pp.41.1-41.1
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• 2019

The stability analysis of coronal magnetic structures is important for studying the initiation of solar flares and eruptions. In order to understand the flare onset process, we first reconstructed the 3D coronal magnetic structures of active region 12371 with an M6.5 flare using a nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) model based on vector magnetic fields. The NLFFFs successfully produce the observed sigmoidal structure which is composed of two branches of sheared arcade loops. The stability analysis were examined for three representative MHD instabilities: the kink, the torus, and the double arc instabilities. Our stability analysis shows that the two branches of sheared arcade loops are quite stable against the kink and torus instabilities, but unstable against the double arc instability before the flare occurrence. Finally, we discuss a probable onset process of the M6.5 flare.

• 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
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• 제39권6호
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• pp.113-125
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• 2019

With the opening of the small power brokerage business market in December 2018, the small power trading market has started in Korea. Operators must submit the day-ahead estimates of power output and receive incentives based on its accuracy. Therefore, the accuracy of power generation forecasts is directly affects profits of the operators. The forecasting process for power generation can be divided into two procedure. The first is to forecast solar irradiation and the second is to transform forecasted solar irradiation into power generation. There are two methods for transformation. One is to simulate with physical model, and another is to use regression model. In this study, we found the best-fit regression model by analyzing hourly data of PV output and solar irradiation data during three years for 242 PV plants in Korea. The best model was not a linear model, but a sigmoidal model and specifically a Gompertz model. The combined linear regression and Gompertz curve was proposed because a the curve has non-zero y-intercept. As the result, R² and RMSE between observed data and the curve was significantly reduced.

• 천문학회보
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• 제41권1호
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• pp.46.1-46.1
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• 2016

The formation process of a current sheet is important for solar flare from a viewpoint of a space weather prediction. We therefore derive the temporal development of the spatial and statistical distribution of electric current density distributed in a flare-producing active region to describe the formation of a current sheet. We derive time sequence distribution of electric current density by applying a nonlinear force-free approximation reconstruction to Active Region 12158 that produces an X1.6-class flare. The time sequence maps of photospheric vector magnetic field used for reconstruction are captured by a Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard Solar Dynamic Observatory (SDO) on 10th September, 2014. The spatial distribution of electric current density in NLFFF model well reproduce observed sigmoidal structure at the preflare phase, although a layer of high current density shrinks at the postflare phase. A double power-law profile of electric current density is found in statistical analysis. This may be expected to use an indicator of the occurrence of a solar flare.

• 멤브레인
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• 제10권3호
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• pp.139-147
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• 2000

불소고분자(ETFE, ECTFE, PVDF)내로 방향족 유기용매(벤젠, 톨루엔, 클로로벤젠)의 비정상 흡수실험에서 non-Fickian (혹은 비이상적인) 확산이 관측되었다. 본 연구에서는 Fick's 법칙에 바탕을 둔 확산모델식(Crank, Long ＆ Richman, Berens ＆ Hopfenberg, Neogi, Li)을 이용하여 방향족 유기용매의 흡수실험에서 관측된 비이상적 흡수데이터론 분석하였다. 모델식의 매개변수 값은 실험데이터와 모델 예측 값의 차이를 최소화하는 least square 법을 이용하여 결정하였다. Fickian 확산으로부터 약간 벗어나는 ETFE 흡수데이터는 앞에서 언급한 모델식들을 이용하여 모두 만족할 만한 결과를 얻었다. 특히 Neogi 모델식은 ETFE-용매계의 고유확산계수(0.4~0.8$\times$$10^-5{cm}^2$/day) 및 평형 확산계수(0.13~0.31$\times$$10^-4{cm}^2$/day), 고분자구조의 이완 속도상수 값을 예측해주었다. PVDF의 전형적인 sigmoidal 흡수데이터에 대해서는 Crank 모델이 비교적 잘 적용되었으며, 초기 확산계수와 평형 확산계수간의 비($D_{\infty}/D_i$)는 80~200의 값을 나타내주었다. 가속적인 흡수데이터를 나타내주는 ECTFE의 경우에는 모든 모델식들의 예측 결과가 상당히 벗어났다. Fickian 확산으로부터 많이 벗어나는 비이상적인 흡수데이터로부터 확산 이동성질과 고분자구조의 이완현상에 대한 정보를 얻기 위해서는 열역학이나 continuum mechanics에 바탕을 둔 새로운 모델식을 적용해야 할 것으로 사료된다.

• 정보처리학회논문지D
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• 제11D권3호
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• pp.597-604
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• 2004

정확한 소프트웨어 비용 추정은 개발자와 고객 모두에게 중요하다. 대부분의 비움 추정 모델들은 규모 추정으로부터 틴은 라인 수와 기능점수와 같을 규모 측도에 기반을 두고 있다. 규모 추정의 정확도는 비용 추정 정확도에 직접적으로 영향을 미친다. 이에 따라 대부분의 회귀기반 비용추정 모델들은 규모에 기반한 멱함수 형태를 적용하고 있다. 생물의 성장, 기술의 발전과 인간의 학습 능력 등 많은 성장 현상들은 S자 곡선을 따른다. 본 논문은 성장곡선을 이용하여 개발노력을 추정하는 모델을 제시하였다. 제시된 모델은 소프트웨어 규모가 증가함에 따라 소요되는 개발 비용이 성장곡선을 따른다고 가정한다. 일반적인 소프트웨어 규모 추정 기법인 기능점수, 완전기능점수와 유스케이스 점수에 기반하여 성장곡선 모델의 적합성을 검증하였다. 제안된 성장곡선 모델들은 멱함수 모델과 비교 시 상호 견줄만한 성능을 보여 소프트웨어 비용 추정분야에 석용 가능함을 보였다.

• 천문학회보
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• 제42권2호
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• pp.81.3-81.3
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• 2017

In this paper, we report a small-scale emerging island and double arc loops, which are associated with a M6.5 flare, in Active Region 12371. We investigate the spatial and temporal changes of both photospheric magnetic fields using SDO/HMI data and coronal magnetic structures obtained from nonliner force-free field (NLFFF) extrapolation. From the vector magnetograms, we find a small-scale emerging island near the main polarityy inversion line about three hours before the flare. The island has a strong shear angle, which is determined by difference between transverse component of observed field and potential field, of around 90 degrees. Furthermore, the NLFFF well reproduces a sigmoidal structure seen in SDO/AIA 94, which is consistent with the double arc loops configuration suggested by Ishiguro and Kusano (2017) who introduced a magnetic configuration showing the double arc instability. The observed emerging island is located among the double arc loops, which is also supproted by their model. Finally, there was an eruption (M6.5 flare) associated with the loops. We discuss a possible role of the double arc instability for the eruption.

• Journal of Dental Anesthesia and Pain Medicine
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• 제20권2호
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• pp.73-81
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• 2020

Background: The international organization for standardization (ISO) 80601-2-61 dictates that the accuracy of a pulse oximeter should be assessed by a controlled desaturation study. We aimed to characterize the relationship between the fraction of inspired oxygen (FiO₂) and peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO₂) using a turnover model by retrospectively analyzing the data obtained from previous controlled desaturation studies. Materials and Methods: Each volunteer was placed in a semi-Fowler's position and connected to a breathing circuit to administer the hypoxic gas mixture containing medical air, oxygen, nitrogen, and carbon dioxide. Volunteers were exposed to various levels of induced hypoxia over 70-100% arterial oxygen saturation (SaO₂). The study period consisted of two rounds of hypoxia and the volunteers were maintained in room air between each round. FiO₂ and SpO₂ were recorded continuously during the study period. A population pharmacodynamic analysis was performed with the NONMEM VII level 4 (ICON Development Solutions, Ellicott City, MD, USA). Results: In total, 2899 SpO₂ data points obtained from 20 volunteers were used to determine the pharmacodynamic characteristics. The pharmacodynamic parameters were as follows: k_out = 0.942 1/min, Imax = 0.802, IC₅₀ = 85.3%, γ = 27.3. Conclusion: The changes in SpO₂ due to decreases in FiO₂ well explained by the turnover model with inhibitory function as a sigmoidal model.

• 한국지반신소재학회논문집
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• 제15권2호
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• pp.65-75
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• 2016

본 연구에서는 최근 적용사례가 급증하고 있는 가압식 그라우팅을 이용한 쏘일네일링의 현장인발시험 자료를 수집하여 데이터베이스를 구성하였으며, 기존의 도해법을 이용한 극한인발저항력 판정법의 문제점을 보완하기 위하여 비선형회귀분석을 이용하여 극한인발저항력을 판정하는 방법을 제안하였다. 비선형회귀분석에 의해 추정된 하중-변위곡선은 현장인발시험 자료와 매우 높은 상관성을 보였으며, 도해법에 의해 판정된 극한인발하중에 비해 평균 29% 정도 크게 판정되었다. 쏘일네일의 하중-변위곡선이 항복하중 이후에 급격한 변위를 보이는 경우에는 S자 성장곡선 회귀모형이 가장 적합하며, 인발하중과 변위의 증가량이 점진적으로 감소하는 파괴거동을 보이는 하중-변위곡선은 점근적 방법이 가장 적합한 회귀모형으로 평가되었다. 본 연구로부터 제안된 단위극한주면 마찰 저항력은 국내 지반특성과 가압식 그라우팅 공법의 특성이 반영된 것으로 해외 연구결과로부터 제시된 설계도표를 이용하던 문제점을 개선함으로써 독자적인 설계기준을 확보하는데 기여할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.