• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.10
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• pp.49-59
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• 2022

This paper examined the impact of real exchange rate volatility on trade balance in Malaysia by using quarterly data from year 2000 until 2019. Generalized Autoregressive Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model was used to extract the volatility component of real exchange rate before examining its impact on trade balance. Furthermore, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was used to investigate the long-run relationship and short-run dynamic between trade balance, money supply, national income and volatility of exchange rate. Empirical results show the existence of co-movement between variables under study in the long-run. However, the results also suggest that volatility of real exchange rate does not significantly affect trade balance neither in the long-run nor short-run. The risk which is associated in the movement of exchange rate do not influence trader's behaviour toward Malaysia exports and imports. Thus, it should be note that any depreciation or appreciation in Malaysian Ringgit do not have an impact towards trade balance either it is being further improved or deteriorates. Hence, exchange rate volatility may not be too concern for policymakers. This may be partially due to manage floating exchange rate regime that has been adopted by Malaysia eventually eliminated the element of risk in the currency market.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.139-154
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• 2021

This study's impetus is to explore fresh evidence to answer the question, i.e., whether remittances asymmetrically influence financial development in Bangladesh from 1975 to 2019. The study employs several tests, i.e., nonlinear unit root test, Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL), NARDL, and asymmetric causality test for establishing the pattern of association. Nonlinear unit root tests confirm that variables follow a nonlinear system of being stationary after the first difference. nonlinearity among variables is investigated by performing the BDS test and nonlinear OLS. Directional causality is investigated through both linear and nonlinear effects of remittance inflows by following the non-granger casualty test. The test statistics of Fpass and tBDM showed the Long-run cointegration in the empirical model and positive effect running from remittances inflow to financial development both in the long-run and short-run. Furthermore, the results of a standard Wald test divulge the presence of long-run and short-run asymmetry. Asymmetry causality test established unidirectional causality due to positive and negative shocks in remittances inflows to Bank-based financial development and feedback hypothesis hold for explaining causality between positive and negative shocks in remittance inflows and Stock-based financial development.

• The Journal of shipping and logistics
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.93-109
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• 2019

This study applied the statistically significant factors to the short-run model in the existing nonlinear long-run equilibrium relation analysis for the forecasting of maritime economy using the mixed cycle model. The most common univariate AR(1) model and out-of-sample forecasting are compared with the root mean squared forecasting error from the mixed-frequency model, and the prediction power of the mixed-frequency approach is confirmed to be better than the AR(1) model. The empirical results from the analysis suggest that the new approach of high-level mixed frequency model is a useful for forecasting marine industry. It is consistent that the inclusion of more information, such as higher frequency, in the analysis of long-run equilibrium framework is likely to improve the forecasting power of short-run models in multivariate time series analysis.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.70-88
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• 2000

Short runs where it is neither possible nor practical to obtain sufficient subgroups to estimate accurately the control limit are common in modem business environments. In this study, the standardized control chart, Hillier's exact method, Q chart, EWMA(Exponentially Weighted Moving Average) chart for Q statistics and EWMA chart for mean and absolute deviation among many SPC(Statistical Process Control) techniques for short runs have been reviewed and advantages and disadvantages of these techniques are discussed. The simulation experiments to compare performances of these variable charts for process mean and variations are conducted for combination of subgroup size, scale and timing of shifts of process mean an/or standard deviation. Based upon simulation results, some guidelines for practitioners to choose short run SPC techniques are recommended.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.12
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• pp.123-129
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• 2020

This scholarly work is an effort to capture the effects of oil prices on the actual exchange rate between dollar and rupee. This is done with reference to the U.S. dollar as oil prices are marked in USD (U.S. Dollar) in the international market, and India is among the top five importers of oil. Using monthly data from January 2001 to May 2020. The study used the real GDP, money supply, short-term interest rate difference between two countries, and inflation apart from the crude oil prices per barrel as the factors that help define the exchange rate. The analysis, through cointegration and vector error correction method (VECM), suggests long and short-run causality amid prices of oil and the rate of exchange fluctuations. Oil prices are found to be negatively related to the exchange rate in the long term but positively related in the short term. The result of the Wald test also indicates the short-run causation from the short-term interest rate and the prices of crude oil towards the exchange rate. The present study shows that oil prices are evidence of the existence of short-term and long-term driving associations with short-term interest rates and exchange rates.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.397-414
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• 2002

This paper presents an empirical analysis of exchange rate volatility, petroleum's import price and industrial production on petroleum imports. The GARCH framework is used to measure the exchange rate volatility. One of the most appealing features of the GARCH model is that it captures the volatility clustering phenomenon. We found one long-run relationship between petroleum imports, import price, industrial production, and exchange rate volatility using Johansen's multivariate cointegration methodology. Since there exists a cointegrating vector, therefore, we employ an error correction model to examine the short-run dynamic linkage, finding that the exchange rate volatility performs a key role in the short-run. This paper also apply impulse-response functions to provide the dynamic responses of energy consumption to the exchange rate volatility. The results show that the response of energy consumption to exchange rate volatility declines at the first month and dies out very quickly.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.14-20
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• 2004

The coefficient of variation(CV) which is a relatively dimensionless measure of variability is widely used to describe the variation of sample data. However, the properties of CV distribution are little available and few research has been done on estimation and interpretation of CV. In this paper, we give an outline of statistical properties of coefficient of variation and design of control chart based on this statistic. Construction procedures of control chart are presented. The proposed control chart is an efficient method to monitor a process variation for short production run situation. Futhermore, we evaluated the performance of CV control chart by average run length(ARL).

• International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.181-187
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• 2021

The purpose of this study is to examine empirically the short- and long-run determinants of entrepreneurial activity in a sample of 15 the Middle East and North African economies between 2006 and 2018. More specifically, four groups of determinants are considered in the analysis, namely economic, demographic, business environment, and institutional. Given the autoregressive feature of the entrepreneurial activity process, a dynamic panel data model is estimated using the system GMM estimator. Findings reveal that unemployment, trade openness, population density, and economic freedom are the main drivers of new business creation in the short-run, while the cost and number of procedures to start a new business negatively affect entrepreneurship. In the long-run, the same findings hold true. Moreover, education and political stability and the absence of violence/terrorism positively affect entrepreneurial activity. Policy recommendations are accordingly designed.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.11-21
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• 2007

The PDCA (Plan, Do, Check and Act) cycle is often used in the field of quality management. Recently, business environments have become more competitive, and the due time of products has shortened. In a short production run process, to increase efficiency of management, the necessity for distinguishing the PDCA design that starts with PLAN and the CAPD design that starts with CHECK has been clarified. Starting from Duncan (1956), there have been a number of papers dealing with the economic design of control charts from the viewpoint of production run. Some authors (Gibra, 1971; Ladany and Bedi, 1976; etc.) have studied the economic design for finite-length runs; other authors (Crowder, 1992; Del Castillo and Montgomery, 1996; etc.) have studied the economic design for short runs. However, neither the PDCA nor the CAPD design of control charts has been considered. In this paper, both the PDCA and CAPD designs of the $\bar{\x}$ chart are defined based on Del Castillo and Montgomery's design (1996), and their mathematical formulations are shown. Then from an economic viewpoint, the optimal values of the sample size per each sampling, control limits width, and the sampling interval of the two designs are studied. Finally, by numerically analyzing the relations between the key parameters and the total expected cost per unit time, the comparisons between the two designs are considered in detail.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.299-312
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• 2006

This study examines the relations among wage differentials, trade, and productivity in Korea, using the methodology of Granger causality and vector error correction modelling. Cointegration test results over the 1975-2004 period indicate that all the test variables are cointegrated. Therefore, wage differentials, trade, and productivity are all related in the long run. We found some evidence on long-run relationship, while there is no short-run relationship between three test variables. First, trade and wage differentials have positively and bi-directionally Granger causality in the long-run. Second, productivity Granger causes negatively wage differentials in the long-run. Finally, productivity Granger causes positively trade in the long-run. These results explain partially the current theoretical predictions for wage inequality as well as supports the productivity-led growth hypothesis in the Korean economy.