• 한국식품저장유통학회지
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• 제30권4호
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• pp.573-588
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• 2023

The purpose of this study was to monitor changes in the quality of ginseng and predict its shelf-life. As the storage period of ginseng increased, some quality indicators, such as water-soluble pectin (WSP), CDTA-soluble pectin (CSP), cellulose, weight loss, and microbial growth increased, while others (Na₂CO₃-soluble pectin/NSP, hemicellulose, starch, and firmness) decreased. Principal component analysis (PCA) was performed using the quality attribute data and the principal component 1 (PC1) scores extracted from the PCA results were applied to the multivariate analysis. The reaction rate at different temperatures and the temperature dependence of the reaction rate were determined using kinetic and Arrhenius models, respectively. Among the kinetic models, zeroth-order models with cellulose and a PC1 score provided an adequate fit for reaction rate estimation. Hence, the prediction model was constructed by applying the cellulose and PC1 scores to the zeroth-order kinetic and Arrhenius models. The prediction model with PC1 score showed higher R² values (0.877-0.919) than those of cellulose (0.797-0.863), indicating that multivariate analysis using PC1 score is more accurate for the shelf-life prediction of ginseng. The predicted shelf-life using the multivariate accelerated shelf-life test at 5, 20, and 35℃ was 40, 16, and 7 days, respectively.

• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제26권1호
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• pp.39-44
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• 2024

In order to prevent accidents via defective ammunition, this paper analyzes recent research on ammunition life prediction methodology. This workanalyzes current shelf-life prediction approaches by comparing the pros and cons of physical modeling, accelerated testing, and statistical analysis-based prediction techniques. Physical modeling-based prediction demonstrates its usefulness in understanding the physical properties and interactions of ammunition. Accelerated testing-based prediction is useful in quickly verifying the reliability and safety of ammunition. Additionally, statistical analysis-based prediction is emphasized for its ability to make decisions based on data. This paper aims to contribute to the early detection of defective ammunition by analyzing ammunition life prediction methodology hereby reducing defective ammunition accidents. In order to prepare not only Korean domestic war situation but also the international affairs from Eastern Europe and Mid East countries, it is very important to enhance the stability of organizations using ammunition and reduce costs of potential accidents.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제35권2호
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• pp.45-52
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• 2007

The danger of self-ignition of single base propellants will increase with time. Therefore, a good prediction of the safe storage time is very important. In order to determine the remaining shelf-life of the propellants, the content of stabilizer is determined. The propellants stored under normal storage conditions about 10 to 18 years were investigated and accelerated aging test was carried out by storing propellant sample at higher temperature. Finally, we analyzed the results by various methods in order to show the best way to predict the realistic shelf-life. The safe storage life of the propellants will be 24 years, at least 15 years. In case of applying Arrhenius's law, using the reaction rate constant at 28$^{\circ}C$ to 30$^{\circ}C$ to predict the shelf-life by accelerated aging test is reasonable for a good prediction.

• 한국식품영양과학회지
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• 제42권5호
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• pp.832-836
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• 2013

어묵의 유통기한을 예측하기 위해서 어묵을 30, 35, $40^{\circ}C$에서 각각 저장하면서 저장기간 중 총 호기성균 수를 측정하였다. Gompertz model을 이용하여 최대성장속도와 유도기를 구하였고, 각 parameter의 온도 의존성에 대한 식을 통해 유통기한에 관한 예측모델 식을 얻었다. 예측모델 식으로부터 계산된 유통기한은 0, 4, $10^{\circ}C$에서 각각 6.9, 5.5, 3.8일이었다. 이렇게 얻어진 예측모델 식의 적합성 평가를 위해 $A_f$와 $B_f$ 값을 산출한 결과, 각각 1.008, 1.003으로 나타나 예측모델식의 적합성이 뛰어났다. 이러한 결과로부터 본 연구에서 얻어진 유통기한예측 모델 식은 어묵의 유통기한 설정의 기초연구로써 활용될 수 있다고 판단된다.

• 한국식품위생안전성학회지
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• 제11권3호
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• pp.189-196
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• 1996

Based on microbiological-chemical test results under simulated time-temperature conditions, total plate count, coliform, and volatile basic nitrogen were selected as effective quality indicators for estimating probable shelf-life on Kim Pab dosirak marketed in convenience stores, and shelf-life at each storage temperature was calculated from regression equation between effective quality indicator standard limit and storage time. Estimated shelf lives of Kim Pab Dosirak were 17, 3 and 2 hours respectively under 1$0^{\circ}C$, 2$0^{\circ}C$ and 3$0^{\circ}C$. Because shelf-life was especially affected by intial values, regression analysis between initial effective quality indicator values and storage hours was performed for the estimation of probable shelf-life on Kim Pab during storage at 10, 20, or 3$0^{\circ}C$.

• 한국포장학회지
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• 제4권1호
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• pp.23-32
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• 1997

The change in moisture content of moisture sensitive products in moisture-semipermeable packages was investigated for the purpose of predicting the shelf life of a product-package combination. A mathematical model, and a computer program based on the physiochemical properties of the product and the moisture permeability of the package was developed. The moisture content for products in moisture-semipermeable packages was determined under various environmental conditions and the results were compared with the predicted values by means of the simulation model. These experimental studies demonstrated that the prediction of the change in moisture content of packaged products over time by the simulation model is accurate, within a practical range of temperature and relative humidity values. The developed semi-empirical model is considered to have applications in industry, since it provides product shelf life information for a range of temperature and relative humidity conditions, with a limited number of experimentally obtained data points.

• 한국축산식품학회지
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• 제39권6호
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• pp.903-917
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• 2019

This study aimed to extend the shelf-life of coffee-containing milk beverage by adding Theobroma cacao (cacao nibs) extract. To prepare the beverage sample containing cacao nibs extract, 0.8% cacao nibs hydrothermal extract was aseptically injected. Qualitative changes in the beverage samples, including antioxidant effect, peroxide value (POV), caffeine content, and sensory parameters were monitored regularly during storage at 10℃, 20℃, and 30℃ for 4 wk. The inclusion of cacao nibs extract produced higher antioxidant activity compared to the control. As the storage temperature increased, the POV of all samples increased. Samples with cacao nibs extract generally displayed lower POV than the control. The caffeine content of all samples tended to decrease during storage, with the decrease accentuated by higher storage temperatures. In the shelf-life prediction using the Arrhenius model, the kinetic regressions of the cacao nibs extract-added sample and control were Y_POV=1.2212X-2.1141 (r²=0.9713) and Y_POV=1.8075X-2.0189 (r²=0.9883), respectively. Finally, the predicted shelf-life of cacao nibs-added group and control to reach the quality limit (20 meq/kg POV) were approximately 18.11 and 12.18 wk, respectively. The results collectively indicate that the addition of cacao nibs extract extends the shelf-life of the coffee-containing milk beverage and heightened the antioxidant effect.

• 한국국방경영분석학회지
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• 제37권1호
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• pp.39-48
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• 2011

야전에 저장된 탄약의 수명을 예측하는 것은 군의 전투지원 핵심요소로 실무적으로 매우 중요한 의미가 있다. 본 연구는 6년간 수행한 155mm 추진장약(KD541)의 ASRP(Ammunition Stockpile Reliability Program : 저장탄약신뢰성평가) 결과를 기초로 추진장약 추진제의 안정제함량 변화에 따른 시계열분석 (ARIMA 모델) 방법론을 적용 저장탄약수명을 예측하였다. 이번 연구는 기존의 회귀분석 모델을 활용한 연구방법과 다르게 시계열분석을 적용하되 미니 탭 프로그램을 활용하여 시계열분석을 적용 저장탄약수명을 예측하였다. 이러한 분석결과 155mm 추진장약(KD541) 저장수명은 35~43년으로 예측되었다.

• 한국식품과학회지
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• 제24권2호
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• pp.122-126
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• 1992

츄잉껌의 shelf-life 예측을 위하여 유통중인 제품과 동일한 시료를 조제하여 상대습도를 달리한 저장조건에서 포장된 츄잉껌의 수증기투과율, 흡탈습곡선의 온도의존성을 고찰하고 츄잉껌의 상품적 가치를 유지하는 수분함량 $2.17{\sim}3.16%(dry\;basis)$을 기준으로 품질수명을 예측하였다. 포장된 츄잉껌 1통 (7 sticks)의 수증기 투과율은 0.00045g water/pack day mmHg였으며 25, 30 및 $40^{\circ}C$에서 얻은 등온흡습곡선의 온도의존성은 Clausius-Clapeyron 식으로 표현될 수 있었다. 서울지역 기후변동에 따른 츄잉껌 1통의 수분변화량을 simulation 시켜 위험수분함량에 도달하는 품질수명을 예측한 결과 10, 11월에 생상된 제품의 품질수명은 7개월 정도로 가장 길었고 6, 7월에 생산된 제품은 평균 40일로 나타났으며 1년중 7월의 기후가 제품 보관에 가장 큰 영향을 주었다.

• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제26권3호
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• pp.1-9
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• 2024

This study aims to develop a regression model using data from the Ammunition Stockpile Reliability Program (ASRP) to predict the shelf life of 81mm mortar high-explosive shells. Ammunition is a single-use item that is discarded after use, and its quality is managed through sampling inspections. In particular, shelf life is closely related to the performance of the propellant. This research seeks to predict the shelf life of ammunition using a regression model. The experiment was conducted using 107 ASRP data points. The dependent variable was 'Storage Period', while the independent variables were 'Mean Ammunition Velocity,' 'Standard Deviation of Mean Ammunition Velocity,' and 'Stabilizer'. The explanatory power of the regression model was an R-squared value of 0.662. The results indicated that it takes approximately 55 years for the storage grade to change from A to C and about 62 years to change from C to D. The proposed model enhances the reliability of ammunition management, prevents unnecessary disposal, and contributes to the efficient use of defense resources. However, the model's explanatory power is somewhat limited due to the small dataset. Future research is expected to improve the model with additional data collection. Expanding the research to other types of ammunition may further aid in improving the military's ammunition management system.