• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.33 no.6
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• pp.791-804
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• 2020

Residential electricity consumption can be predicted more accurately by utilizing the realtime household electricity consumption reference that can be collected by the AMI as the ICT developed under the smart grid circumstance. This paper studied the model that predicts residential power load using the ARIMA, TBATS, NNAR model based on the data of hour unit amount of household electricity consumption, and unlike forecasting the consumption of the whole households at once, it computed the anticipated amount of the electricity consumption by aggregating the predictive value of each established model of cluster that was collected by the households which show the similiar load profile. Especially, as the typical time series data, the electricity consumption data chose the clustering analysis method that is appropriate to the time series data. Therefore, Dynamic Time Warping and Periodogram based method is used in this paper. By the result, forecasting the residential elecrtricity consumption by clustering the similiar household showed better performance than forecasting at once and in summertime, NNAR model performed best, and in wintertime, it was TBATS model. Lastly, clustering method showed most improvements in forecasting capability when the DTW method that was manifested the difference between the patterns of each cluster was used.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.129-146
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• 2018

Extreme wind speed analysis has been carried out conventionally by assuming the extreme series data is stationary. However, time-varying trends of the extreme wind speed series could be detected at many surface meteorological stations in China. Two main reasons, exposure change and climate change, were provided to explain the temporal trends of daily maximum wind speed and annual maximum wind speed series data, recorded at Hangzhou (China) meteorological station. After making a correction on wind speed series for time varying exposure, it is necessary to perform non-stationary statistical modeling on the corrected extreme wind speed data series in addition to the classical extreme value analysis. The generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution with time-dependent location and scale parameters was selected as a non-stationary model to describe the corrected extreme wind speed series. The obtained non-stationary extreme value models were then used to estimate the non-stationary extreme wind speed quantiles with various mean recurrence intervals (MRIs) considering changing climate, and compared to the corresponding stationary ones with various MRIs for the Hangzhou area in China. The results indicate that the non-stationary property or dependence of extreme wind speed data should be carefully evaluated and reflected in the determination of design wind speeds.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.3 no.2
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• pp.224-234
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• 2008

Multi-phase machines can be used in variable speed drives. Their applications include electric ship propulsion, 'more-electric aircraft' and traction applications, electric vehicles, and hybrid electric vehicles. Multi-phase machines enable independent control of a few numbers of machines that are connected in series in a particular manner with their supply being fed from a single voltage source inverter(VSI). The idea was first implemented for a five-phase series-connected two-motor drive system, but is now applicable to any number of phases more than or equal to five-phase. The number of series-connected machines is a function of the phase number of VSI. Theoretical and simulation studies have already been reported for number of multi-phase multi-motor drive configurations of series-connection type. Variable speed induction motor drives without mechanical speed sensors at the motor shaft have the attractions of low cost and high reliability. To replace the sensor, information concerning the rotor speed is extracted from measured stator currents and voltages at motor terminals. Open-loop estimators or closed-loop observers are used for this purpose. They differ with respect to accuracy, robustness, and sensitivity against model parameter variations. This paper analyses operation of an MRAS estimator based sensorless control of a vector controlled series-connected two-motor five-phase drive system with current control in the stationary reference frame. Results, obtained with fixed-voltage, fixed-frequency supply, and hysteresis current control are presented for various operating conditions on the basis of simulation results. The purpose of this paper is to report the first ever simulation results on a sensorless control of a five-phase two-motor series-connected drive system. The operating principle is given followed by a description of the sensorless technique.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 1990.11a
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• pp.309-313
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• 1990

Pulse width modulation using discontinuous conduction modes are applied to a full-bridge series resonant converter to regulate the output from no load to full load with low switching loss and a narrow range of frequency variation. Finally, a simple nonlinear discrete-time dynamic model for this proposed converter is derived using approximation. This discrete time model is linearized and a general input - output transfer function for the propelled converter is derived.

• Journal of Korea Game Society
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.36-41
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• 2002

Recently, The online role playing games (RPG) get into spotlight of worldwide game marketing area because of the rapid growth of high speed Internet environment during a decade. The almost online RPGs are made of campaign scenario that constructed in series. In this paper, we propose the Distributed Server Model for the Evolutionary Online RPGs which have series scenario (Campaign). In order to represents evolutionary online RPGs, We configure the online RPG server uniquely by means of one to one mapping between logical and physical game world. We also configure the game worlds using circular queue form to express the evolution of civilization by reconstruction of game world.

• Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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• 2003.11a
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• pp.34-36
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• 2003

In boreal conifers in China's Northeast area, maximum latewood density (MXD) of tree-ring varies in response to growing season temperature. Forest net productivity can be estimated using the Normalized-difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) calculated from satellite sensor data. MXD from the Mohe site in this area was compared with estimates of NPP for 1982-1999 produced by the NDVI model, which was established based on the relationship of leaf area index (LAI) and NDVI. The result shows that the MXD series correlated significantly with the NDVI model estimates series, suggesting that MXD appeared to be an appropriate index for productivity or canopy growth in region where forest productivity is strongly temperature-related.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.161-172
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• 2005

In this paper a nonparametric method is proposed for detecting conditionally heteroscedastic errors in a nonparametric time series regression model where the observation points are equally spaced on [0,1]. It turns out that the first-order sample autocorrelation of the squared residuals from the kernel regression estimates provides essential information. Illustrative simulation study is presented for diverse errors such as ARCH(1), GARCH(1,1) and threshold-ARCH(1) models.

• Proceedings of the Korean Statistical Society Conference
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• 2002.11a
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• pp.265-272
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• 2002

An Integer-valued autoregressive integrated (INARI) model is introduced to eliminate stochastic trend and seasonality from time series of count data. This INARI extends the previous integer-valued ARMA model. We show that it is stationary and ergodic to establish asymptotic normality for conditional least squares estimator. Optimal estimating equations are used to reflect categorical and serial correlations arising from panel count data and variations arising from three random processes for obtaining observation into estimation. Under regularity conditions for martingale sequence, we show asymptotic normality for estimators from the estimating equations. Using cancer mortality data provided by the U.S. National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), we apply our results to estimate the probability of cells classified by 4 causes of death and 6 age groups and to forecast death count of each cell. We also investigate impact of three random processes on estimation.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Technology Engineers
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.137-146
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• 2000

The hydraulic energy regnerative brake systems is introduced in this work. An accumulator stores kinetic energy during braking action, and the stored energy is used in a following acceleration action. The dynamic model of the brake system is derived for computer simulation study, and the Runge-Kutta numerical integration method is applied to the simulation work. Since the model contains several unknown parameters, these were determined by data which had been proceeded. Through a series of computer simulation , dynamic performance of the energy regenerative brake system is compared with that of a conventional system in which a conventional brake circuit is used. A series of test is carried out in the laboratory. The dynamic characteristics of the hydraulic motor system, such as the surge pressure and response time, are investigated in both brake action and acceleration action.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Tribologists and Lubrication Engineers Conference
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• 2004.11a
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• pp.221-231
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• 2004

A kinetic theory analysis is made of low-speed gas flows in a microfluidic system consisted of three microchannels in series. The Boitzmann equation simplified by a collision model is solved by means of a finite difference approximation with the discrete ordinate method. For the evaluation of the present method results are compared with those from the DSMC method and an analytical solution of the Navier-Stokes equations with slip boundary conditions. Calculations are made for flows at various Knudsen numbers and pressure ratios across the channel. The results compared well with those from the DSMC method. It is shown that the analytical solution of the Navier-Stokes equations with slip boundary conditions which is suited fur fully developed flows can give relatively good results. In predicting the geometrically complex flows up to a Knudsen number of about 0.06. It is also shown that the present method can be used to analyze extremely low-speed flow fields for which the DSMC method is Impractical.