• Title/Summary/Keyword: series model

Search Result 5,386, Processing Time 0.053 seconds

Effect of Ground Subsidence on Reliability of Buried Pipelines (지반침하가 매설배관의 건전성에 미치는 영향)

  • 이억섭;김동혁
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
    • /
    • v.21 no.1
    • /
    • pp.173-180
    • /
    • 2004
  • This paper presents the effect of varying boundary conditions such as ground subsidence, internal pressure and temperature variation for buried pipelines on failure prediction by using a failure probability model. The first order Taylor series expansion of the limit state function incorporating with von-Mises failure criteria is used in order to estimate the probability of failure mainly associated with three cases of ground subsidence. Using stresses on the buried pipelines, we estimate the probability of pipelines with von-Mises failure criterion. The effects of varying random variables such as pipe diameter, internal pressure, temperature, settlement width, load for unit length of pipelines, material yield stress and pipe thickness on the failure probability of the buried pipelines are systematically studied by using a failure probability model for the pipeline crossing ground subsidence regions which have different soil properties.

Trend Analysis of Rainfall Data Using Stochastic Time Series Models (추계학적 모의발생기법을 이용한 강우자료의 경향성 분석)

  • Seo, Lynn;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2009.05a
    • /
    • pp.1282-1286
    • /
    • 2009
  • 최근에 빈번하게 발생하는 집중호우로는 강우자료의 경향성에 영향을 주고 있다. 하지만, 우리나라의 강우관측기록이 충분하지 못하여 통계학적 경향성 분석은 유의한 결과를 보여주고 있지 않아, 확률강우량 산정시 강우자료가 정상성을 지니고 있다고 가정하여 빈도분석을 실시하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 경향성이 나타나지 않는 강우관측소 49개지점중 4개의 지점을 선정하여 향후 경향성 여부를 분석하였다. 이들 관측자료가 가지는 경향성을 유지하면서 추계학적 시계열 모의발생기법을 이용하여 강우자료를 발생시킨 후 경향성 검정을 실시하였다. 이를 위하여 Regression model, ARMA model을 이용하여 강우자료를 발생시켰으며, 발생된 강우자료는 Mann-Kendall test, Hotelling-Pabst test, Wald-Wolfowitz test를 사용하였다. 그 결과 거의 모든 지점에서 가까운 미래에 경향성을 갖게 될 것임을 알 수 있었다.

  • PDF

Directional ARMAX Model-Based Approach for Rotordynamics Identification, Part 1 : Modeling and Analysis (방향 시계열에 의한 회전체 동특성 규명: (I) 모델링 및 해석)

  • 박종포;이종원
    • Journal of KSNVE
    • /
    • v.8 no.6
    • /
    • pp.1103-1112
    • /
    • 1998
  • A new time series method, directional ARMAX (dARMAX) model-based approach. is proposed for rotor dynamics identification. The dARMAX processes complex-valued signals, utilizing the complex modal testing theory which enables the separation of the backward and forward modes in the two-sided frequency domain and makes effective modal parameter identification possible, to account for the dynamic characteristics inherent in rotating machinery. This paper is divided into two parts : The dARMAX modeling, analysis. and fitting strategy are presented in the first part. whereas a evaluation of its performance characteristics based on both simulated and experimental data is presented in the second.

  • PDF

RUNOFF ANALYSIS BY DEAD ZONE LONGITUDINAL DISPERSION ANALOGY (사대종확산 모형에 의한 유출해석)

  • 윤용남;차영기
    • Water for future
    • /
    • v.12 no.1
    • /
    • pp.56-59
    • /
    • 1979
  • A prompt subsurface runoff producing mechanism whih creaters a depletion curve of direct runoff hydrograph is simulated by a dead zone dispersion model technique. Runoff processes are carried out by routing of the outflow resulted from previous linear channel and effective rainfall from its corresponding subwatershed through a series of conceptual linear channels representing subwatersheds of a catchment. Working rules are explained for evaluation the model parameters such as translatory velocity, diffusive factor, and parameters concerning the infiltration and relative magnitude of the prompt subsurface flow region.

  • PDF

PREDICT10N OF THE ONSET OF SLUG FLOW IN NEARLY HORIZONTAL AIR-WATER COUNTERCURRENT FLOW

  • Yu, Seon-Oh;Chun, Moon-Hyun;Kim, Yang-Seok
    • Proceedings of the Korean Nuclear Society Conference
    • /
    • 1997.05a
    • /
    • pp.368-373
    • /
    • 1997
  • The transition from a statified wavy to a slug flow has been analyzed considering the mechanistic forces acting on the wave crest in a nearly horizontal air-water countercurrent flow. To verify the results of the analysis, a series of experiments have been performed changing the inclination angle of the test section. Comparisons of the theoretical predictions with experimental data show a good agreement and the results show that the present model gives similar results of Taitel and Dukler's in the case of inclined pipes. However, at high superficial liquid velocity, the results of present work agree more closely with data than that of Taitel and Dukler's. Also, predictions of the present model gives a very close agreement with the experimental data for various tube sizes obtained by others.

  • PDF

An Investigation on the Effect of Stabilization Methods and Leaching characteristics of Heavy Metals in Paddy Soils contaminated by Heavy Metal under Submerged Condition (담수조건에 따른 토양 내 중금속 용출특성과 안정화공법의 효과 검토)

  • Yu, Chan;Yun, Sung-Wook;Kang, Sin-Il;Jin, Hae-Geun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
    • /
    • 2010.09a
    • /
    • pp.1201-1212
    • /
    • 2010
  • In order to investigate on the effect of stabilization methods for rice paddies contaminated by heavy metals, a series of lab-scale model test was carried out by applying the characteristics of submerged Paddy soil. To perform the lab-scale model test, columns were made by acrylic with the dimension of diameter=10cm, thickness=0.5cm and were filled with soils which was contaminated were mixed with stabilization agents(lime stone 5% and steel refining slag 5% respectively). To manipulate the reduction condition, soils in the columns were submerged with distilled water. And then soil water and subsurface water in each column were sampled in the regular term and analysed the various physical and chemical properties.

  • PDF

Road measuring system using surface profile sensing algorithm (표면 종단면 형상 감지 알고리즘을 이용한 노면 해석 시스템)

  • Kim, Hyo-Jun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
    • /
    • v.12 no.3
    • /
    • pp.1098-1104
    • /
    • 2011
  • This paper presents the development of the surface profile sensing system (SPSS) and its application to analysis of road surface. The SPSS which can robustly reconstruct the road input profiles from the intermixed data with the vehicle's dynamic motion, is implemented using the multi-sensor system with the optimally shaped transfer function. The performance of this system is evaluated by a series of experimental works in the devised simulator. And a real car test equipped with the proposed system is performed in the proving ground over both deterministic and random road surfaces. Finally, a feasibility of the system is investigated considering the road model.

Performance Analysis of Internet Traffic Forecasting Model (인터넷 트래픽 예측 모형 성능 분석 연구)

  • Kim, S.;Ha, M.H.;Jung, J.Y.
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
    • /
    • v.24 no.2
    • /
    • pp.307-313
    • /
    • 2011
  • In this paper, we compare performance of three models. The Holt-Winters, FARIMA and ARGARCH models, are used in predicting internet traffic data for analysis of traffic characteristics. We first introduce the time series models and apply them to real traffic data to forecast. Finally, we examine which model is the most suitable for explaining the long memory, the characteristics of the traffic material, and compare the respective prediction performance of the models.

On Useful Principal Component Features for EEG Classification (뇌파 분류에 유용한 주성분 특징)

  • Park, Sungcheol;Lee, Hyekyoung;Park, Seungjin
    • Proceedings of the Korean Information Science Society Conference
    • /
    • 2003.04c
    • /
    • pp.178-180
    • /
    • 2003
  • EEG-based brain computer interface(BCI) provides a new communication channel between human brain and computer. EEG data is a multivariate time series so that hidden Markov model (HMM) might be a good choice for classification. However EEG is very noisy data and contains artifacts, so useful features mr expected to improve the performance of HMM. In this paper we addresses the usefulness of principal component features with Hidden Markov model (HHM). We show that some selected principal component features can suppress small noises and artifacts, hence improves classification performance. Experimental study for the classification of EEG data during imagination of a left, right up or down hand movement confirms the validity of our proposed method.

  • PDF

Characterization of Fiber Pull-out in Orthogonal Cutting of Glass fiber Reinforced Plastics

  • Park, Gi-Heung
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Industrial Safety Conference
    • /
    • 2003.10a
    • /
    • pp.113-117
    • /
    • 2003
  • The reliability of machined fiber reinforced composites (FRC) in high strength applications and the safety in using these components are often critically dependent upon the quality of surface produced by machining since the surface layer may drastically affect the strength and chemical resistance of the material [1,2,3,4]. Current study will discuss the characterization of fiber pull-out in orthogonal cutting of a fiber-matrix composite materials. A sparsely distributed idealized model composite material, namely a glass reinforced polyester (GFRP) was used as workpiece. Analysis method employs a force sensor and the signals from the sensor are processed using AR time series model. The experimental correlation between the fiber pull-out and the AR coefficients is examined first and effects of fiber orientation, cutting parameters and tool geometry on the fiber pull-out are also discussed.

  • PDF