• Title/Summary/Keyword: series model

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A Time-Series Study of Ambient Air Pollution in Relation to Daily Death Count in Daejeon, 1998-2001 (대전 광역시 대기오염과 일별 사망자 수의 상관성에 관한 시계열적 연구(1998년~2001년))

  • Cho, Yong-Sung;Lee, Jong-Tae;Kim, Yoon-Shin
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.9-19
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    • 2004
  • This study is performed to examine the relationship between air pollution exposure and mortality in Daejeon for the years of 1998 - 2001. Daily counts of death were analyzed by general additive Poisson model, with adjustment for effects of seasonal trend, air temperature, humidity, and day of the week as confounders in a nonparametric approach. Daily death counts were associated with CO(4 day before), $O_3$(current day), $PM_10$(4 day before), $NO_2$(6 day before), $SO_2$(2 day before). Increase of $31.07{\mu}g/m^3$(interquartile range) in $PM_10$ was associated with 2.0 % (95% CI = 0.5 % - 3.5 %)) increase in the daily number of death. This effect was greater in children(less than 15 aged) and elderly(more than 65 aged). We concluded that Daejeon had 2 - 4 % increase in mortality in association with IQR in air pollutants. Daily variations in air pollution within the range currently occurring in Daejeon might have an adverse effect on daily mortality. These findings also support the hypothesis that air pollution at levels below the current ambient air quality standards of Korea except PM10, is harmful to sensitive subjects, such as children or elderly.

Analysis of the 'Chukwookee' data using time series model (시계열 모형을 이용한 측우기 자료의 분석)

  • 조신섭;이정형;김병수
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.25-43
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    • 1996
  • One of the main issues related to the precipitation amounts measured by the Korean raingage, Chukwookee, invented by King Sejong is the discontinuity in the time series around 1907 when the modern raingage was first used in Korea. To solve this discontinuity problem Wada(1971) reproduced the Chukwookee data but many authors questioned the validity of Wada's method. In this paper we analyze the precipitation amounts in Seoul from 1771 to 1994 using the intervention model and show that Wada's method results in the overestimation of the precipitation amounts. We also propose a reproduction method by considering monthly constant and including the rainfall of less then 2 mm and the snowfall which were ignored previously.

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A Long-Term Water Budget Analysis for an Ungaged River Baisn (미계측 유역의 장기 물수지 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Yoo, Keum Hwan;Kim, Tae Kyun;Yoon, Yong Nam
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.113-119
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    • 1991
  • In the present study, a methodology has been established for water budget analysis of a river basin for which monthyl rainfall and evaporation data are the only available hydrologic data. The monthly rainfall data were first converted into monthyl runoff data by an empirical formula from which long-term runoff data were generated by a stochastic generation mothod. Thomas-Fiering model. Based on the generated long-term data low flow frequency analysis was made for each of the oberved and generated data set, the low flow series of each data set being taken as the water supply for budget analysis. The water demands for various water utilization were projected according to the standard method and the net water consumption computed there of. With the runoff series of the driest year of each generated data set as an input water budget computation was made through the composite reservoirs comprised of small reserviors existing in the basin by deficit-supply method. The water deficit computed through the reservior operation study showed that the deficit radically increases as the return period of low flow becomes large. This indicates that the long-term runoff data generated by stochastic model are a necessity for a reliable water shortage forecasting to cope with the long-term water resourse planning of a river basin. F.E.M. program (ADINA) is also presented herein.

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A Time-Series Study of Ambient Air Pollution in Relation to Daily Mortality in Incheon, 1998-2001 (인천시 대기오염과 일별 사망의 상관성에 관한 시계열적 연구 (1998년${\sim}$2001년))

  • Cho, Yong-Sung;Lee, Jong-Tae;Kim, Yoon-Shin;Hyun, Youn-Joo;Moon, Jeong-Suk
    • Journal of environmental and Sanitary engineering
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    • v.18 no.3 s.49
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    • pp.89-99
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    • 2003
  • This study is peformed to examine the relationship between air pollution exposure and mortality in Incheon for the years of 1998 - 2001. Daily counts of death were analyzed by general additive Poisson model, with adjustment for effects of seasonal trend, air temperature, humidity, and day of the week as confounders in a nonparametric approach. Daily death counts were associated with CO(1 day before), O$_3$(2 day before), PM$_{10}$(1 day before), NO$_2$(1day before), SO$_2$(1 day before). Increase of 32.21 ${\mu}$g/m$^3$(interquartile range) in PM$_{10}$ was associated with 1.9 % (95% CI = 0.8 % - 2.9 %) increase in the daily number of death. This effect was greater in children(less than 15 aged) and elderly(more than 65 aged). We concluded that Incheon had 2 - 4 % increase in mortality in association with IQR in air pollutants. Daily variations in air pollution within the range currently occurring in Incheon might have an adverse effect on daily mortality. These findings also support the hypothesis that air pollution, at levels below the current ambient air quality standards of Korea, is harmful to sensitive subjects, such as children or elderly.

A Study on Adaptive Design of Experiment for Sequential Free-fall Experiments in a Shock Tunnel (충격파 풍동에서의 연속적 자유낙하 실험에 대한 적응적 실험 계획법 적용 연구)

  • Choi, Uihwan;Lee, Juseong;Song, Hakyoon;Sung, Taehyun;Park, Gisu;Ahn, Jaemyung
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.46 no.10
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    • pp.798-805
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    • 2018
  • This study introduces an adaptive design of experiment (DoE) approach for the hypersonic shock-tunnel testing. A series of experiments are conducted to model the pitch moment coefficient of a cone as the function of the angle of attack and the pitch rate. An algorithm to construct the trajectory of the test model from the images obtained by the high-speed camera is developed to effectively analyze multiple time series experimental data. An adaptive DoE procedure to determine the experimental point based on the analysis results of the past experiments using the algorithm is proposed.

The Stochastic Hydrological Analysis for the Discharge of River Rhine at Lobith (For River Rhine at Lobith in the Netherlands) (라인강 유량의 추계학적 수문분석에 관한 연구 (네덜란드의 Lobith지점을 중심으로))

  • 최예환
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.46-52
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    • 1981
  • The aim at this study has the stochastic hydrological analysis for the annual mean discharge and monthly discharge which were observed at Lobith of River Rhine in the Netherlands from 1901 to 1972. After this study was analysed by computer IBM 370 and Hewlett Parkard 9800, the results were as follows; 1.When 72 data was divided into two groups of subsample data as 36 data, they do not have their properties to be non-homogeneous and inconsistent due to F-test and t-test. 2.The credit limits of the serial correlation coefficient was fluctuated $\pm$0. 231 which was shown in Fig. 3. at significant level 99% by Anderson's test. 3.The correlogram at short term was shown to be no short-term persistence as Fig. 3. 4.Since the correlogram at long term has displayed that Hurst's coefficient was 0.6144 between 0.6 and 0.7, it was to be no long-term persistence. 5.The stochastic model with annual discharge of this River Rhine was shown with $\chi$t=2195+483. 8 $\varepsilon$t as $\chi$t=$\mu$+oet and $\varepsilon$t=$_1$ø$\varepsilon$t-$_1$+ζt where t=1,2,3,..., ζt is an independent series with mean zero and variance (1-ø2), $\varepsilon$t is the dependent series, and 4' is the parameter of the model. 6.The serial correlation coefficient of monthly discharge was explained as $\chi$$_1$ = 0.34 . sin(6-$\pi$t+$\pi$) as Fig.4. and the River Rhine has no large fluctuation and smoothly changed during that time.

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Influence of bi-directional seismic pounding on the inelastic demand distribution of three adjacent multi-storey R/C buildings

  • Skrekas, Paschalis;Sextos, Anastasios;Giaralis, Agathoklis
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.71-87
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    • 2014
  • Interaction between closely-spaced buildings subject to earthquake induced strong ground motions, termed in the literature as "seismic pounding", occurs commonly during major seismic events in contemporary congested urban environments. Seismic pounding is not taken into account by current codes of practice and is rarely considered in practice at the design stage of new buildings constructed "in contact" with existing ones. Thus far, limited research work has been devoted to quantify the influence of slab-to-slab pounding on the inelastic seismic demands at critical locations of structural members in adjacent structures that are not aligned in series. In this respect, this paper considers a typical case study of a "new" reinforced concrete (R/C) EC8-compliant, torsionally sensitive, 7-story corner building constructed within a block, in bi-lateral contact with two existing R/C 5-story structures with same height floors. A non-linear local plasticity numerical model is developed and a series of non-linear time-history analyses is undertaken considering the corner building "in isolation" from the existing ones (no-pounding case), and in combination with the existing ones (pounding case). Numerical results are reported in terms of averages of ratios of peak inelastic rotation demands at all structural elements (beams, columns, shear walls) at each storey. It is shown that seismic pounding reduces on average the inelastic demands of the structural members at the lower floors of the 7-story building. However, the discrepancy in structural response of the entire block due to torsion-induced, bi-directionally seismic pounding is substantial as a result of the complex nonlinear dynamics of the coupled building block system.

A Study on the Development of the Quality Assessment Modules of Database System (데이터베이스 시스템 품질 평가 모듈 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Mi-Young;Kim, Min-Jung;Seung, Hyon-Woo
    • Journal of Korean Library and Information Science Society
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.305-329
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    • 2008
  • This study is to develop quality assessment module to apply database system quality assessment thus, recognizing necessity of database system quality improvement maturity model. To manage and improve of database system quality, assessment module is needed to assess database system quality systematically. This study is to perform for the purpose of follows. First, this study is to select quality characteristics and sub characteristics on based on ISO/IEC 9126 series and to develop assessment module for database system quality assessment. Second, this study is to compare and to analysis about quality assessment characteristics of two groups. This study is to have significance to apply quantitative assessment in theoretical and practical basis and is to applicate basic materials of study in database system quality assessment. Also, in succeeding study, it will be to develop of database system quality improvement maturity model.

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A Study for Traffic Forecasting Using Traffic Statistic Information (교통 통계 정보를 이용한 속도 패턴 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Bo-Seung;Kang, Hyun-Cheol;Lee, Seong-Keon;Han, Sang-Tae
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.1177-1190
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    • 2009
  • The traffic operating speed is one of important information to measure a road capacity. When we supply the information of the road of high traffic by using navigation, offering the present traffic information and the forecasted future information are the outstanding functions to serve the more accurate expected times and intervals. In this study, we proposed the traffic speed forecasting model using the accumulated traffic speed data of the road and highway and forecasted the average speed for each the road and high interval and each time interval using Fourier transformation and time series regression model with trigonometrical function. We also propose the proper method of missing data imputation and treatment for the outliers to raise an accuracy of the traffic speed forecasting and the speed grouping method for which data have similar traffic speed pattern to increase an efficiency of analysis.

Effects of membrane fouling formation by feed water quality and membrane flux in water treatment process using ceramic membrane (세라믹 막여과 정수처리 공정에서 유입수질 및 막여과유속이 막오염 형성에 미치는 영향)

  • Kang, Joon-Seok;Park, Seo-Gyeong;Lee, Jeong-Jun;Kim, Han-Seung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.77-87
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    • 2018
  • In this study, the effects of operating conditions on the formation of reversible and irreversible fouling were investigated in the filtration using ceramic membrane for water treatment process. The effect of coagulation pretreatment on fouling formation was also evaluated by comparing the performance of membrane filtration both with and without addition of coagulant. A resistance-in-series-model was applied for the analysis of membrane fouling. Total resistance (RT) and internal fouling resistance (Rf) increased in the membrane filtration process without coagulation as membrane flux and feed water concentrations increased. Internal fouling resistance, which was not recovered by physical cleaning, was more than 70% of the total resistance at the range of the membrane flux more than $5m^3/m^2{\cdot}day$. In the combined process with coagulation, the cake layer resistance (Rc) increased to about 30-80% of total resistance. As the cake layer formed by coagulation floc was easily removed by physical cleaning, the recovery rate by physical cleaning was 54~90%. It was confirmed from the results that the combined process was more efficient to recover the filtration performance by physical cleaning due to higher formation ratio of reversible fouling, resulted in the mitigation of the frequency of chemical cleaning.