• 제목/요약/키워드: series model

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A Development of Fuzzy Logic-Based Evaluation Model for Traffic Accident Risk Level (퍼지 이론을 이용한 교통사고 위험수준 평가모형)

  • 변완희;최기주
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.119-136
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    • 1996
  • The evaluation of risk level or possibility of traffic accidents is a fundamental task in reducing the dangers associated with current transportation system. However, due to the lack of data and basic researches for identifying such factors, evaluations so far have been undertaken by only the experts who can use their judgements well in this regard. Here comes the motivation this thesis to evaluate such risk level more or less in an automatic manner. The purpose of this thesis is to test the fuzzy-logic theory in evaluating the risk level of traffic accidents. In modeling the process of expert's logical inference of risk level determination, only the geometric features have been considered for the simplicity of the modeling. They are the visibility of road surface, horizontal alignment, vertical grade, diverging point, and the location of pedestrain crossing. At the same time, among some inference methods, fuzzy composition inference method has been employed as a back-bone inference mechanism. In calibration, the proposed model used four sites' data. After that, using calibrated model, six sites' risk levels have been identified. The results of the six sites' outcomes were quite similar to those of real world other than some errors caused by the enforcement of the model's output. But it seems that this kind of errors can be overcome in the future if some other factors such as driver characteristics, traffic environment, and traffic control conditions have been considered. Futhermore, the application of site's specific time series data would produce better results.

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Structural Damage Detection through System Identification (시스템 동정을 통한 구조물의 결함 탐지)

  • Koh, Bong-Hwan;Nagarajaiah, S.;Phan, M.Q.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 2006.05a
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    • pp.1223-1228
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    • 2006
  • This paper presents an experimental investigation of a recently developed Kronecker Product (KP) method to determine the type, location, and intensity of structural damage from an identified state-space model of the system. Although this inverse problem appears to be highly nonlinear, the system mass, stiffness, and damping matrices are identified through a series of transformations, and with the aid of the Kronecker product, only linear operations are involved in the process. Since a state-space model can be identified directly from input-output data, an initial finite element model and/or model updating are not required. The test structure is a two-degree-of-freedom torsional system in which mass and stiffness are arbitrarily adjustable to simulate various conditions of structural damage. This simple apparatus demonstrates the capability of the damage detection method by not only identifying the location and the extent of the damage, but also differentiating the nature of the damage. The potential applicability of the KP method for structural damage identification is confirmed by laboratory test.

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DEVELOPMENT OF A FLOOD PROTECTION SYSTEM BY THE USE OF MODEL TESTS

  • Knoblauch Helmut;Goekler Gottfried;Heigerth Guenther
    • Water Engineering Research
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.45-55
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    • 2002
  • The Szentgotthard Flood Protection Project is located in the southeasters part of Austria, very close to the Hungarian border and to the Hungarian town of Szentgotthard situated near the Junction of the rivers Lafnitz and Raab. During heavy rainstorms, this area has always been liable to severe floodings, affecting the town itself and upstream reaches, where major industrial and commercial development is planned. In order to solve these problems, several solutions have been developed by means of a series of model tests performed at the hydraulic laboratory of the Technical University of Graz, Austria. The model was constructed to scales 1:75 (lengths) and 1:25 (heights). This trebled scale allowed greater accuracy in the measurement of discharge depths. The results from the model tests have led to the following proposals: - Construction of a flood relief trough with an inflow section 3.5 km upstream of the junction of the rivers Lafnitz and Raab. - Use of a former river bed for the flood relief trough. - Design of a lowered embankment crest section to pass one-third of the maximum flood flow of the river Lafnitz. - Connection of the flood relief trough to the Lahnbach stream, a tributary of the river Raab.

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Prodiction of Walleye Pollock , Theragra Chalcogramma , Landings in Korea by Time Series Analysis : AIC (시계열분석을 이용한 한국 명태어업의 어획량 예측 : AIC)

  • Park, Hae-Hoon;Yoon, Gab-Dong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.235-240
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    • 1996
  • Forecasts of monthly landings of walleye pollock, Theragra chalcogramma, in Korea were carried out by the seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARlMA) model. The Box - Cox transformation on the walleye pollock catch data handles nonstationary variance. The equation of Box - Cox transformation was Y'=($Y^0.31$_ 1)/0.31. The model identification was determined by minimum AIC(Akaike Information Criteria). And the seasonal ARlMA model is presented (1- O.583B)(1- $B^1$)(l- $B^12$)$Z_t$ =(l- O.912B)(1- O.732$B^12$)et where: $Z_t$=value at month t ; $B^p$ is a backward shift operator, that is, $B^p$$Z_t$=$Z_t$-P; and et= error term at month t, which is to forecast 24 months ahead the walleye pollock landings in Korea. Monthly forecasts of the walleye pollock landings for 1993~ 1994, which were compared with the actual landings, had an absolute percentage error(APE) range of 20.2-226.1 %. Thtal observed annual landings in 1993 and 1994 were 16, 61OM/T and 1O, 748M/T respectively, while the model predicted 10, 7 48M/T and 8, 203M/T(APE 37.0% and 23.7%, respectively).

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Evaluation of Creep Models with the Consideration of Concrete's Strength Level (콘크리트 강도대별 크리프 예측모델 평가)

  • Moon, Jae-Heum
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.154-159
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    • 2010
  • Recent concrete structures have been being constructed with higher strength concrete than normal strength concrete. Therefore, it is necessary to review the applicabilities of current design codes and models for the prediction of mechanical behaviors of concrete materials such as creep. To investigate the applicability of creep model with the consideration of the strength level of concrete, three current models (ACI 209R, CEB-FIP MC90 and EC2) were studied and compared with series of experimental results. It was shown that EC2 model which is the updated model of CEB-FIP MC90 better predicts creep coefficient for high strength level concretes and showed relatively good agreements with experimental data.

QSO Selections Using Time Variability and Machine Learning

  • Kim, Dae-Won;Protopapas, Pavlos;Byun, Yong-Ik;Alcock, Charles;Khardon, Roni
    • The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.64-64
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    • 2011
  • We present a new quasi-stellar object (QSO) selection algorithm using a Support Vector Machine, a supervised classification method, on a set of extracted time series features including period, amplitude, color, and autocorrelation value. We train a model that separates QSOs from variable stars, non-variable stars, and microlensing events using 58 known QSOs, 1629 variable stars, and 4288 non-variables in the MAssive Compact Halo Object (MACHO) database as a training set. To estimate the efficiency and the accuracy of the model, we perform a cross-validation test using the training set. The test shows that the model correctly identifies ~80% of known QSOs with a 25% false-positive rate. The majority of the false positives are Be stars. We applied the trained model to the MACHO Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) data set, which consists of 40 million lightcurves, and found 1620 QSO candidates. During the selection, none of the 33,242 known MACHO variables were misclassified as QSO candidates. In order to estimate the true false-positive rate, we crossmatched the candidates with astronomical catalogs including the Spitzer Surveying the Agents of a Galaxy's Evolution (SAGE) LMC catalog and a few X-ray catalogs. The results further suggest that the majority of the candidates, more than 70%, are QSOs.

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Ratio of predicted and observed natural frequency of finite sand stratum

  • Prathap Kumar, M.T.;Ramesh, H.N.;Raghavendra Rao, M.V.;Raghunandan, M.E.
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.1 no.3
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    • pp.219-239
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    • 2009
  • Vertical vibration tests were conducted using model footings of different size and mass resting on the surface of finite sand layer with different height to width ratios and underlain by either rigid concrete base or natural red-earth base. A comparative study of the ratio of predicted and observed natural frequency ratio of the finite sand stratum was made using the calculated values of equivalent stiffness suggested by Gazetas (1983) and Baidya and Muralikrishna (2001). Comparison of results between model footings resting on finite sand stratum underlain by the rigid concrete base and the natural red-earth base showed that, the presence of a finite base of higher rigidity increases the resonant frequency significantly. With increase in H/B ratio beyond 2.0, the influence of both the rigid concrete and natural red-earth base decreases. Increase in the contact area of the footing increases the resonant frequency of the model footings resting on finite sand stratum underlain by both the types of finite bases. Both the predicted and the observed resonant frequency ratio decreases with increase in force rating and height to width ratio for a given series of model footing.

Verification of Propeller-Induced Fluctuating Pressure in Sea Trials (실선에서의 프로펠러 변동압력 성능 검증)

  • Song In-Haeng;Seo Jongsoo;Paik Kwangjun;Jung Jaekwon
    • Special Issue of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • 2005.06a
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    • pp.44-50
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    • 2005
  • Since a cavitation pattern in model scale can be different from that in full scale, it has been highly demanded to measure a fluctuating pressure induced by propeller in full scale. For the verification of the cavitation test for 105K lanker in the large cavitation tunnel in Samsung Ship Model Basin(SSMB), an effective pressure fluctuation measurement system was developed and a series of full scale measurements was carried out. These results were compared with those of cavitation tests in SSMB. The measured results in full scale gave good agreements to those in model tests. The fluctuating pressure at $2^{nd}$ blade frequency in full scale seems to be highly dependent upon tip loading.

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The Effect of Surface Recombination Current on the Saturation Current in Si Solar Cell (Si 태양전지(太陽電池)의 표면재결합(表面再結合) 전류(電流)가 포화전류(飽和電流)에 미치는 영향(影響))

  • Shin, Kee-Shik;Lee, Ki-Seon;Choi, Byung-Ho
    • Solar Energy
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.12-18
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    • 1988
  • The effect of surface recombination current density on the saturation current density in Si solar cell has been studied. Theoretical model for surface recombination current was set up from emitter transparent model of M.A. Shibib, and saturation current of Si solar cell made by ion implantation method was also measured by digital electrometer. The theoretical surface recombination current density which is the same as saturation surface recombination current density in Shibib model was $10^{-11}[A/cm^2]$ and the measured value was ranged from $8{\times}10^{-10}$ to $2{\times}10^{-9}[A/cm^2]$. Comparing with the ideal p-n junction of Shockley, transparent emitter model shows improved result by $10^2$ order of saturation current density. But there still exists $10^2$ order of difference of saturation current density between theoretical and actual values, which are assumed to be caused by 1) leakage current through solar cell edge, 2) recombination of carriers in the depletion layer, 3) the series resistance effect and 4) the tunneling of carriers between states in the band gap.

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Failure simulation of ice beam using a fully Lagrangian particle method

  • Ren, Di;Park, Jong-Chun;Hwang, Sung-Chul;Jeong, Seong-Yeob;Kim, Hyun-Soo
    • International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.639-647
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    • 2019
  • A realistic numerical simulation technology using a Lagrangian Fluid-Structure Interaction (FSI) model was combined with a fracture algorithm to predict the fluid-ice-structure interaction. The failure of ice was modeled as the tensile fracture of elastic material by applying a novel FSI model based on the Moving Particle Semi-implicit (MPS) method. To verify the developed fracture algorithm, a series of numerical simulations for 3-point bending tests with an ice beam were performed and compared with the experiments carried out in an ice room. For application of the developed FSI model, a dropping water droplet hitting a cantilever ice beam was simulated with and without the fracture algorithm. The simulation showed that the effects of fracture which can occur in the process of a FSI simulation can be studied.