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Reliability-based Structural Design Optimization Considering Probability Model Uncertainties - Part 2: Robust Performance Assessment (확률모델 불확실성을 고려한 구조물의 신뢰도 기반 최적설계 - 제2편: 강인 성능 평가)

  • Ok, Seung-Yong;Park, Wonsuk
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.115-121
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    • 2012
  • This paper, being the second in a two-part series, presents the robust performance of the proposed design method which can enhance a reliability-based design optimization(RBDO) under the uncertainties of probabilistic models. The robust performances of the solutions obtained by the proposed method, described in the Part 1, are investigated through the parametric studies. A 10-bar truss example is considered, and the uncertain parameters include the number of data observed, and the variations of applied loadings and allowable stresses. The numerical results show that the proposed method can produce a consistent result despite of the large variations in the parameters. Especially, even with the relatively small data set, the analysis results show that the exact probabilistic model can be successfully predicted with optimized design sections. This consistency of estimating appropriate probability model is also observed in the case of the variations of other parameters, which verifies the robustness of the proposed method.

A Three-Dimensional Finite Element Model of Water Circulation (물의 순환에 관한 3차원 유한요소 모형)

  • 정태성
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.27-36
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    • 1998
  • A three-dimensional numerical model of water circulation has been developed. The model employs the equations on $\sigma$-coordinate and the finite element method for numerical integration. To verify accuracy of the model, a series of numerical experiments have been conducted. The experiments include wind-driven currents in an one-dimensional channel, wind-driven currents in a square lake, and tidal current distributions in Masan-Jinhae Bay. The simulation results showed good agreements with the analytic solutions for wind-driven current and the field data sets in Masan-Jinhae Bay. The model can be used widely for modeling of water circulation in the waters with a complex geometry.

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Efficiency Optimization with a Novel Magnetic-Circuit Model for Inductive Power Transfer in EVs

  • Tang, Yunyu;Zhu, Fan;Ma, Hao
    • Journal of Power Electronics
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.309-322
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    • 2018
  • The technology of inductive power transfer has been proved to be a promising solution in many applications especially in electric vehicle (EV) charging systems, due to its features of safety and convenience. However, loosely coupled transformers lead to the system efficiency not coming up to the expectation at the present time. Therefore, at first, the magnetic core losses are calculated with a novel magnetic-circuit model instead of the commonly used finite-element-method (FEM) simulations. The parameters in the model can be obtained with a one-time FEM simulation, which makes the calculation process expeditious. When compared with traditional methods, the model proposed in the paper is much less time-consuming and relatively accurate. These merits have been verified by experimental results. Furthermore, with the proposed loss calculation model, the system is optimized by parameter sweeping, such as the operating frequency and winding turns. Specifically, rather than a predesigned switching frequency, a more efficiency-optimized frequency for the series-parallel (SP) compensation topology is detected and a detailed investigation has been presented accordingly. The optimized system is capable of an efficiency that is greater than 93% at a coil separation distance of 200mm and coil dimensions of $600mm{\times}400mm$.

ARIMA Based Wind Speed Modeling for Wind Farm Reliability Analysis and Cost Estimation

  • Rajeevan, A.K.;Shouri, P.V;Nair, Usha
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.869-877
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    • 2016
  • Necessity has compelled man to improve upon the art of tapping wind energy for power generation; an apt reliever of strain exerted on the non-renewable fossil fuel. The power generation in a Wind Farm (WF) depends on site and wind velocity which varies with time and season which in turn determine wind power modeling. It implies, the development of an accurate wind speed model to predict wind power fluctuations at a particular site is significant. In this paper, Box-Jenkins ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) time series model for wind speed is developed for a 99MW wind farm in the southern region of India. Because of the uncertainty in wind power developed, the economic viability and reliability of power generation is significant. Life Cycle Costing (LCC) method is used to determine the economic viability of WF generated power. Reliability models of WF are developed with the help of load curve of the utility grid and Capacity Outage Probability Table (COPT). ARIMA wind speed model is used for developing COPT. The values of annual reliability indices and variations of risk index of the WF with system peak load are calculated. Such reliability models of large WF can be used in generation system planning.

Two-Stage forecasting Using Change-Point Detection and Artificial Neural Networks for Stock Price Index

  • Oh, Kyong-Joo;Kim, Kyoung-Jae;Ingoo Han
    • Proceedings of the Korea Inteligent Information System Society Conference
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    • 2000.11a
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    • pp.427-436
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    • 2000
  • The prediction of stock price index is a very difficult problem because of the complexity of the stock market data it data. It has been studied by a number of researchers since they strong1y affect other economic and financial parameters. The movement of stock price index has a series of change points due to the strategies of institutional investors. This study presents a two-stage forecasting model of stock price index using change-point detection and artificial neural networks. The basic concept of this proposed model is to obtain Intervals divided by change points, to identify them as change-point groups, and to use them in stock price index forecasting. First, the proposed model tries to detect successive change points in stock price index. Then, the model forecasts the change-point group with the backpropagation neural network (BPN). Fina1ly, the model forecasts the output with BPN. This study then examines the predictability of the integrated neural network model for stock price index forecasting using change-point detection.

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Role of the Korea Steel Industry in the National Economy Analysis (한국 철강산업의 국민경제적 파급효과 분석)

  • Jung, Kun-Oh;Lim, Eung-Soon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.831-839
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    • 2008
  • The steel industry is becoming more important around the world and the demand of steel is increasing. Korea is the 5th country of steel producing in the world and the attention in the steel industry is growing. The steel industry is one of the key industry in leading the economic growth in Korea. This study attempts to analyze by time-series the economic impacts of the steel industry using an inter-industry analysis Specifically, the study investigates production-inducing effect, value added inducing effect and employ-inducing effect of the steel industry based on demand-driven model and the study deals with supply shortage effect and sectoral price effect of the steel industry by using supply-driven model and Leontief price model.

Diagonal Tension Failure Model for RC Slender Beams without Shear Reinforcement Based on Kinematical Conditions (II) - Verification

  • You, Young-Min;Kang, Won-Ho
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.16-25
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    • 2007
  • In a companion paper, a rational mechanical model to predict the entire behavior of point-loaded RC slender beams (a/d > 2.5) without shear reinforcement was developed. This paper presents the test results of 9 slender shear beams and compares them with analytical results performed by the proposed model. They are grouped by two parameters, which are shear span ratio and concrete strength. Three kinds of concrete strength the 26.5, 39.2, and 58.8 MPa were included as a major experimental parameter together with different shear span ratios ranging from 3 to 6 depending on the test series. Tests were set up as a traditional 3 point bending test. Various measurements were taken to monitor abrupt shear failure. Test results were not only compared with analytical results from the proposed model, but also other formulas, to consider the various aspects of shear failure such as kinematical conditions or shear capacity. Finally, a review of the proposed model is presented with respect to the shear transfer mechanisms and the effect of test parameters. Results show that several assumptions and proposals adopted in the proposed model are rational and reasonable.

A constitutive model for fiber-reinforced extrudable fresh cementitious paste

  • Zhou, Xiangming;Li, Zongjin
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.371-388
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    • 2011
  • In this paper, time-continuous constitutive equations for strain rate-dependent materials are presented first, among which those for the overstress and the consistency viscoplastic models are considered. By allowing the stress states to be outside the yield surface, the overstress viscoplastic model directly defines the flow rule for viscoplastic strain rate. In comparison, a rate-dependent yield surface is defined in the consistency viscoplastic model, so that the standard Kuhn-Tucker loading/unloading condition still remains true for rate-dependent plasticity. Based on the formulation of the consistency viscoplasticity, a computational elasto-viscoplastic constitutive model is proposed for the short fiber-reinforced fresh cementitious paste for extrusion purpose. The proposed constitutive model adopts the von-Mises yield criterion, the associated flow rule and nonlinear strain rate-hardening law. It is found that the predicted flow stresses of the extrudable fresh cementitious paste agree well with experimental results. The rate-form constitutive equations are then integrated into an incremental formulation, which is implemented into a numerical framework based on ANSYS/LS-DYNA finite element code. Then, a series of upsetting and ram extrusion processes are simulated. It is found that the predicted forming load-time data are in good agreement with experimental results, suggesting that the proposed constitutive model could describe the elasto-viscoplastic behavior of the short fiber-reinforced extrudable fresh cementitious paste.

Research on the motion characteristics of a trans-media vehicle when entering water obliquely at low speed

  • Li, Yong-li;Feng, Jin-fu;Hu, Jun-hua;Yang, Jian
    • International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.188-200
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    • 2018
  • This paper proposes a single control strategy to solve the problem of trans-media vehicle difficult control. The proposed control strategy is just to control the vehicle's air navigation, but not to control the underwater navigation. The hydrodynamic model of a vehicle when entering water obliquely at low speed has been founded to analyze the motion characteristics. Two methods have been used to simulate the vehicle entering water in the same condition: numerical simulation method and theoretical model solving method. And the results of the two methods can validate the hydrodynamic model founded in this paper. The entering water motion in the conditions of different velocity, different angle, and different attack angle has been simulated by this hydrodynamic model and the simulation has been analyzed. And the change rule of the vehicle's gestures and position when entering water has been obtained by analysis. This entering water rule will guide the follow-up of a series of research, such as the underwater navigation, the exiting water process and so on.

[Retracted]Estimation of the Fatigue Damage for an Ice-going Vessel under Broken Ice Condition Part I - Direct Approach ([논문철회]유빙 하중을 받는 내빙 선박의 피로손상도 추정 Part I - 직접 해석법)

  • Kim, Jeong-Hwan;Kim, Yooil
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.56 no.3
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    • pp.217-230
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    • 2019
  • In this study, a fatigue damage estimation for an ice-going vessel navigating through broken ice fields was carried out. A numerical model to simulate the interaction between ice and structure developed using the finite element method was introduced. Time series of stresses calculated by the proposed model and the corresponding fatigue analysis results are presented. The numerical model enables the long time analysis through an efficient interaction model, the application of the periodic media analysis and the convolution integral, and it allows the stress time history to be extracted directly using the finite element method. To describe the probability distribution of stress amplitudes, the 2-parameter Weibull model was applied to the calculated stress time history, and the fatigue damage was calculated using the Palmgren-Miner rule. Finally, the fatigue damage considering the ice conditions of the Baltic Sea was calculated using the proposed method and LR method, and the results were compared to each other.