• 한국도로학회논문집
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• 제16권6호
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• pp.105-113
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• 2014

PURPOSES: The objective of this paper is to select the confidential intervals by utilizing the second moment reliability index(Hasofer and Lind; 1974) related to the number of load applications to failure which explains the fatigue failure and rut depth that it indicates the permanent deformation. By using Finite Element Method (FEM) Program, we can easily confirm the rut depth and number of load repetitions without Pavement Design Procedures for generally designing pavement depths. METHODS : In this study, the predictive models for the rut depth and the number of load repetitions to fatigue failure were used for determining the second moment reliability index (${\beta}$). From the case study results using KICTPAVE, the results of the rut depth and the number of load repetitions to fatigue failure were deducted by calculating the empirical predictive equations. Also, the confidential intervals for rut depth and number of load repetitions were selected from the results of the predictive models. To determine the second moment reliability index, the spreadsheet method using Excel's Solver was used. RESULTS : From the case studies about pavement conditions, the results of stress, displacement and strain were different with depth conditions of layers and layer properties. In the clay soil conditions, the values of strain and stresses in the directly loaded sections are relatively greater than other conditions. It indicates that the second moment reliability index is small and confidential intervals for rut depth and the number of load applications are narrow when we apply the clay soil conditions comparing to the applications of other soil conditions. CONCLUSIONS : According to the results of the second moment reliability index and the confidential intervals, the minimum and maximum values of reliability index indicate approximately 1.79 at Case 9 and 2.19 at Case 22. The broadest widths of confidential intervals for rut depth and the number of load repetitions are respectively occurred in Case 9 and Case 7.

• 한국콘크리트학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국콘크리트학회 2004년도 추계 학술발표회 제16권2호
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• pp.433-436
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• 2004

The safety of buildings is generally estimated by analyzing a plane frame ignoring a minor bending moment. In this paper, uncertainties of reinforced concrete shear wall subjected to a biaxial bending are considered. First, major parameters are selected from all parameters of general shear wall design to perform a reliability analysis in their practical ranges, means and standard derivations of selected design parameters for the reliability analysis are calculated by a data mining as a simulation method. The bi-section method is used to find inclined neutral axis and its limit state using MATLAB subjected to the concept on strength design method. The reliability index $\beta$ as a safety index is calculated based on AFOSM(Advanced First-Order Second Moment) method. Also, if target reliability index $\beta_T$ is decided by an engineer an amount of reinforcement can be calculated by subtracting the reliability index $\beta$ from the target reliability index $\beta_T$.

• 한국지반공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지반공학회 2008년도 추계 학술발표회
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• pp.1090-1097
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• 2008

This study conducted the decision method of lateral flow in abutment structures founded on the soft soils and the reliability analysis on the foundation pile for abutment. On the basis of the results, this study proposed the reliability design model. Reliability analysis was conducted by applying second moment method, point estimation method, and expected total cost minimization to lateral movement index, lateral movement decision index, modified lateral movement decision index, and circular failure safety factor for the decision criteria of lateral flow. The reliability index by analysis method had a similar tendency each other. Point estimation method was found as a practical method in the aspect of convenience because it could conduct the analysis only by mean and standard deviation as well as the partial derivative on random variables was not necessary. Optimum reliability index and optimum safety according to increasing in failure factors and load ratio were analyzed and loads and resistance factors of the design criteria of optimum reliability were estimated. It presented rational design model which can consider construction level and stability and economical efficiency overall.

• Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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• 제20권10호
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• pp.1662-1669
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• 2006

Since randomness and uncertainties of design parameters are inherent, the robust design has gained an ever increasing importance in mechanical engineering. The robustness is assessed by the measure of performance variability around mean value, which is called as standard deviation. Hence, constraints in robust optimization problem can be approached as probability constraints in reliability based optimization. Then, the FOSM (first order second moment) method or the AFOSM (advanced first order second moment) method can be used to calculate the mean values and the standard deviations of functions describing constraints and object. Among two methods, AFOSM method has some advantage over FOSM method in evaluation of probability. Nevertheless, it is difficult to obtain the mean value and the standard deviation of objective function using AFOSM method, because it requires that the mean value of function is always positive. This paper presented a special technique to overcome this weakness of AFOSM method. The mean value and the standard deviation of objective function by the proposed method are reliable as shown in examples compared with results by FOSM method.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제54권3호
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• pp.926-939
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• 2022

The area of this study will cover the location-wise seismic response variation of an electrical cabinet in nuclear power point (NPP) based on classical reliability analysis. The location-based seismic ground motion (GM) selection is carried out with the help of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis using PSHRisktool, where the variation of reliability analysis can be understood from the relation between the reliability index and intensity measure. Two different approaches such as the first-order second moment method (FOSM) and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) are helped to evaluate and compare the reliability assessment of the cabinet. The cabinet is modeled with material uncertainty utilizing Steel01 as the material model and the fiber section modeling approach is considered to characterize the section's nonlinear reaction behavior. To verify the modal frequency, this study compares the FEM result with recorded data using Least-Squares Complex Exponential (LSCE) method from the impact hammer test. In spite of a few investigations, the main novelty of this study is to introduce the reader to check and compare the seismic reliability assessment variation in different seismic locations and for different earthquake levels. Alongside, the betterment can be found by comparing the result between two considered reliability estimation methods.

• 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국전산구조공학회 1989년도 가을 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.34-39
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• 1989

Recent trends in design standards development have encouraged the use of probabilistic limit sate design concepts. Reliability analysis adopted in those advanced countries have the potentials that they afford for symplifying the design Process arid placing it on a consistent reliability based for various construction materials. This study is proposed in the reliability analysis of plane frame structures using second-order moment method(Level-II they). Lind-Hasofer's minimum distance method is use in the derivation of an mathematical algorithm as well as an determination of Correlation cofficients, reliability index and total reliability index depending on the multiple failure modes. In addition. This study is employed as a practical tool for the approximate reliability analysis. Results of the numerincal analysis showed that the difference between the reliability index of the failure probability of the multiple failure modes and the total reliability index of the failure probability with the simultaneous failure modes deviated nearly 3∼10% depending on tile performance functions.

• 한국구조물진단유지관리공학회 논문집
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• 제12권6호
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• pp.129-139
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• 2008

콘크리트 구조물의 내구성 해석 변수들의 변동성과 불확실성으로 인해 확률론적인 접근법의 사용이 증가되어 왔다. 특히, 몬테칼로시뮬레이션 방법(Level III 방법)은 접근성의 용이함으로 인해 많은 내구신뢰성 해석에 사용되어왔지만, 결과를 얻기위해서는 수 십만번의 반복계산이 필요하다. Level II 수준의 신뢰성 해석법인 일계이차모멘트법(FOSM)은 MCS법과 비교할 수 없을 정도의 짧은 시간에 신뢰도지수나 파괴확률을 계산할 수 있어, 유효성만 검증된다면 편리성과 신속성으로 인해 폭넓은 사용이 가능할 것이다. 본 연구에서는 FOSM법과 MCS법에 의한 부식확률(내구성 파괴확률)을 서로 비교하여 FOSM법의 유효성을 검증하고 각 내구성 해석변수들의 변동성이 부식확률에 미치는 영향을 검토하였다.

• Computational Structural Engineering : An International Journal
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• 제1권2호
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• pp.81-87
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• 2001

A framework for reliability analysis of structural components and systems under conditions of statistical and model uncertainty is presented. The Bayesian parameter estimation method is used to derive the posterior distribution of model parameters reflecting epistemic uncertainties. Point, predictive and bound estimates of reliability accounting for parameter uncertainties are derived. The bounds estimates explicitly reflect the effect of epistemic uncertainties on the reliability measure. These developments are enhance-ments of second-moment uncertainty analysis methods developed by A. H-S. Ang and others three decades ago.

• 한국지반공학회지:지반
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• 제4권2호
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• pp.15-24
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• 1988

확정론적 방법으로 안정조건을 만족하는 T형옹벽을 대상으로 지지력, 활동, 전도의 단일파괴류 형에 대해 설계변수를 통계적 독립이고 정규분포로 가정하여 AFOSM 방법으로 신뢰도 해석을하였다. 이를 바탕으로 각 파양모드 사이의 상관성을 고려한 구조물 전체적인 신뢰도는 신뢰지수로 2.05 이었다. 그러므로, 확정론적 설계법에 의해 안전상태로 판단된다 할지라도 신뢰도개념으로는 일반적인 목표신뢰지수(Target reliability index) 3보다 훨씬 낮기 때문에 안정상태로 판단하기는 곤란하다.

• Steel and Composite Structures
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• 제4권6호
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• pp.419-435
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• 2004

The safety level of a structural system designed per code specifications can not be inferred directly from the reliability of members due to the load redistribution and nonlinear inelastic structural behavior. Comparison of the system and member reliability, which is scarce in the literature, is likely to indicate any possible inconsistency of design codes in providing safe and economical designs. Such a comparative study is presented in this study for moment resisting two-dimensional steel frames designed per AISC LRFD Specifications. The member reliability is evaluated using the resistance of the beam-column element and the elastic load effects that indirectly accounts for the second-order effects. The system reliability analysis is evaluated based on the collapse load factor obtained from a second-order inelastic analysis. Comparison of the system and member reliability is presented for several steel frames. Results suggest that the failure probability of the system is about one order of magnitude lower than that of the most critically loaded structural member, and that the difference between the system and member reliability depends on the structural configuration, degree of redundancy, and dead to live load ratio. Results also suggest that the system reliability is less sensitive to initial imperfections of the structure than the member reliability. Therefore, the system aspect should be incorporated in future design codes in order to achieve more reliability consistent designs.