• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제26권5호
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• pp.549-561
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• 2017

Recently IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change, 2007) pointed out that global warming is a certain ongoing process on the earth, due to which water resources management is becoming one of the most difficult tasks with the frequent occurrences of extreme floods and droughts. In this study we made runoff predictions for several control points in the Geum River by using the watershed runoff model, SSARR (Streamflow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation Model), with daily RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios for 100 year from 1st Jan 2006 to 31st Dec 2100 at the resolution of 1 km given by Climate Change Information Center. As a result of, the Geum River Basin is predicted to be a constant flow increases, and it showed a variation in the water circulation system. Thus, it was found that the different seasonality occurred.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• 제44권1호
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• pp.33-40
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• 2020

Background: Understanding the geographical distribution of a species is a key component of studying its ecology, evolution, and conservation. Although Schlegel's Japanese gecko (Gekko japonicus) is widely distributed in Northeast Asia, its distribution has not been studied in detail. We predicted the present and future distribution of G. japonicus across China, Japan, and Korea based on 19 climatic and 5 environmental variables using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) species distribution model. Results: Present time major suitable habitats for G. japonicus, having greater than 0.55 probability of presence (threshold based on the average predicted probability of the presence records), are located at coastal and inland cities of China; western, southern, and northern coasts of Kyushu and Honshu in Japan; and southern coastal cities of Korea. Japan contained 69.3% of the suitable habitats, followed by China (27.1%) and Korea (4.2%). Temperature seasonality (66.5% of permutation importance) was the most important predictor of the distribution. Future distributions according to two climate change scenarios predicted that by 2070, and overall suitable habitats would decrease compared to the present habitats by 18.4% (scenario RCP 4.5) and 10.4% (scenario RCP 8.5). In contrast to these overall trends, range expansions are expected in inland areas of China and southern parts of Korea. Conclusions: Suitable habitats predicted for G. japonicus are currently located in coastal cities of Japan, China, and Korea, as well as in isolated patches of inland China. Due to climate change, suitable habitats are expected to shrink along coastlines, particularly at the coastal-edge of climate change zones. Overall, our results provide essential distribution range information for future ecological studies of G. japonicus across its distribution range.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제27권5호
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• pp.489-508
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• 2018

기후변화에 대응하여 보다 적극적인 생물보전전략 수립을 위해 생물 서식환경의 변화예측이 필요하며, 생물기후권역은 유용한 생태계 관리체계를 제공할 수 있다. 이에 따라 본 연구에서는 생물기후권역구축을 통해 동북아시아의 생물 서식환경을 파악하고, 생물 서식관점에서 기후변화의 영향을 분석하였다. Worldclim에서 제공하는 현재(1970~2000년) 기후자료 및 17개 전 지구 기후모형의 예측자료(RCP4.5, RCP8.5)를 이용하여 2050년대와 2070년대의 변화를 모의하였다. 먼저 현재와 미래의 주요생물기후변수(Aridity index, growing degree days, potential evapotranspiration seasonality, temperature seasonality)를 구축하여 동북아시아의 생물기후환경 특성을 파악하고, 기후변화에 따른 시공간적 변화를 분석하였다. ISODATA 군집분석으로 현재의 생물기후권역을 구분하고, MLC(Maximum Likelihood Classification)를 통해 미래의 권역변화를 예측하였다. 기후변화에 따라 대부분의 권역이 북상하는 경향성을 확인할 수 있었으며, 권역의 면적과 위도 분포변화를 분석함으로써 권역의 축소가 가장 두드러지게 나타나는 중국 남부에 위치한 권역을 집중 관리권역으로 제시하였다. 본 연구는 한반도를 포함한 동북아시아 지역의 다양한 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 영향평가를 바탕으로 향후 기후변화에 대응한 생물종 혹은 생태계 관련 적응정책 수립 시 활용 가능한 기초자료를 제공할 수 있을 것으로 사료된다.

• 한국의류학회지
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• 제28권2호
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• pp.280-291
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• 2004

Apparel goods are classified by many criteria for ease of merchandising implementation. Fashion and basic goods are also an oucome oi classification. Previous studies pnvide some criteria by which apparel products can be classified into fushion and basic goods. Among those ciiteria, seasonality, fashionability, clothing types, complexity in pnduction, simplicity of style, pioducuon volume, degree of style change by season, could be listed. This study, first explored how apparel merchandisers and designers define fashion and basic goods in relation with those criteria. Definitions of fashion and basic goods were explored in terms of design elements (i.e., style, color, material), production volume, sales ratio, proportion in product assortment, and contribution to profit. The study adopted a qualitative approach by use of eighteen infepth interviews with menhandisers and designers. Six were from women＇s wear brand, Seven from men＇s wear brand, and 5 from casual wear brand. All the interviewees agreed that they are using the classification of basic vs. fashion goods. However, they are using diverse terms to indicate the basic and fashion goods. The interviewees defined each group based on its contribution to total sales or profit complexity in design, production volume, and style change by season. Basic goods had a higher level of production quantity, contribute more to profit simpler design, and less style change by season than fashion goods.

• 농촌지도와개발
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.249-264
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• 2017

Modeling the consumer demand of fresh meat requires its distinct feature which other types of food product does not have. Most of the fresh meat products are likely to be unbranded, bought on a weight basis and affected by macro shocks such as seasonality, holiday effect and the disease incidence. Furthermore, consumers tend to purchase multiple categories of fresh meat in a week. Therefore, we apply a multiple discrete/continuous model on fresh meat consumption data to study the effect of macro shocks on fresh meat sales as well as of price change. As a result shows, Each fresh meat is relatively more likely to be bought in peak season of each fresh meat compared with imported pork which is set as a 'reference category' in this analysis. For clarity of the effect of disease incidence, we perform further analysis regarding the effect of livestock disease on fresh meat purchase probability. It shows that the avian flu in 2014 has strong negative impact on the purchase probability of chicken and the foot-and-mouth disease has negative impact on the purchase probability of pork and beef for part of outbreak periods.

• Asia Marketing Journal
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• 제15권1호
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• pp.43-55
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• 2013

Since movies are experience goods, consumers are easily influenced by other consumers' behavior. For moviegoers, box office rank is the most credible and easily accessible information. Many studies have found that the relationship between a movie's box office rank and its revenue departs from the Pareto distribution, and this phenomenon has been named "increasing returns to information." The primary objective of the current research is to apply the empirical model proposed by De Vany and Walls (1996) to the Korean movie market in order to examine whether the same phenomenon prevails in the Korean movie market. The other purpose of the present study is to provide managers with useful implications about the release timing of a movie by finding different curvatures that depend upon seasonality. The empirical test on the Korean movie market shows similar results as prior studies conducted on the U.S., Hong Kong, and U.K. movie markets. The phenomenon of increasing returns is generated by information transmission among consumers, which makes some movies become blockbusters and others bombs. The proposed model can also be interpreted in such a way that a change in the rank has a nonlinear effect on the movie's performance. If a movie climbs up the chart, it would be rewarded more than its proportion. On the other hand, if a movie falls down in the ranks, its performance would drop rapidly. The research result also indicates that the phenomenon of increasing returns occurs differently depending on when the movies are released. Since the tendency of the increasing returns to information is stronger during the peak seasons, movie marketers should decide upon the release timing of a movie based on its competitiveness. If a movie has substantial potential to incur positive word-of-mouth, it would be more reasonable to release the movie during the peak season to enjoy increasing returns. Otherwise, a movie should be released during the low season to minimize the risk of being dropped from the chart.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2005년도 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.143-148
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• 2005

The main purpose of this study is to suggest and evaluate an operational method for assessing the potential impact of climate change on hydrologic components and water resources of regional scale river basins. The method, which uses large scale climate change information provided by a state of the art general circulation model(GCM) comprises a statistical downscaling approach and a spatially distributed hydrological model applied to a river basin located in Korea. First, we construct global climate change scenarios using the YONU GCM control run and transient experiments, then transform the YONU GCM grid-box predictions with coarse resolution of climate change into the site-specific values by statistical downscaling techniques. The values are used to modify the parameters of the stochastic weather generator model for the simulation of the site-specific daily weather time series. The weather series fed into a semi-distributed hydrological model called SLURP to simulate the streamflows associated with other water resources for the condition of $2CO_2$. This approach is applied to the Yongdam dam basin in southern part of Korea. The results show that under the condition of $2CO_2$, about $7.6\% of annual mean streamflow is reduced when it is compared with the observed one. And while Seasonal streamflows in the winter and autumn are increased, a streamflow in the summer is decreased. However, the seasonality of the simulated series is similar to the observed pattern and the analysis of the duration cure shows the mean of averaged low flow is increased while the averaged wet and normal flow are decreased for the climate change.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2011년도 제42회 하계학술대회
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• pp.664-665
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• 2011

최근 겨울철과 여름철에 다양한 냉난방기기의 보급이 급증하여 최대전력에 대한 기온의 영향이 상당히 커지고 있다. 이에 따라 기온의 영향으로 인한 계절성이 급등하여 전력수요 예측결과의 불확실성을 증폭시키고 있다. 그러나 아직까지는 이러한 냉방 및 난방부하의 급증에 따른 계절성 변화에 대한 체계적인 분석 방법이 정형화되어 있지 못하다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 누적기온반응함수, 기온분포함수, 공적분 및 오차수정모형 등을 바탕으로 엄격한 통계적 검증을 거쳐 냉난방부하 추정 방법을 연구하였고, 아울러 관련 결과를 제시함으로써 향후의 전력수급에 안정적 기반을 제공코자 한다.

• 대한원격탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한원격탐사학회 2003년도 Proceedings of ACRS 2003 ISRS
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• pp.965-967
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• 2003

Information on forest volume, forest coverage and biomass are important for developing global perspectives about CO$_{2}$ concentration changes. Forest biomass cannot be directly measured from space yet, but remotely sensed greenness can be used to estimate biomass on decadal and longer time scales in regions of distinct seasonality, as in the north. Hence, in this research, numerical methods were used to estimate forest biomass in higher northern regions. A regression model linking Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI), to forest biomass extracted from SPOT/4 VEGETATION data and PAL 8km data in regional and continental area (N40-N70) respectively. Statistical tests indicated that the regression model can be used to represent the changes of forest biomass carbon pools and sinks at high latitude regions over years 1982-2000. This study suggests that the implementation of estimation of biomass based on 8-km resolution NOAA/AVHRR PAL and SPOT-4/VEGETATION data could be detected over a range of land cover change processes of interest for global biomass change studies.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제37권3호
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• pp.185-193
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• 2004

본 연구는 기후변화가 유역의 유출량과 수자원에 미치는 영향을 조사하고 평가하는데 목적이 있다. 이를 위하여 먼저, YONU GCM의 제한실험과 점증실험을 실시하여 전구적 규모의 기후변화 시나리오를 작성하였으며, 통계학적 축소기법과 추계학적 일기발생기법을 이용하여 대상지점의 일 수문기상 시계열을 모의하였다. 이렇게 얻은 시계열자료를 2CO2 상황에서의 유출량자료로 변환하기 위해 준 분포형 강우-유출 모형인 SLURP 모형에 입력하였다. 본 연구에서는 이 방법을 용담댐 유역에 적용하였으며, 그 결과, 기후변화시 연 평균 유출량의 경우 현재상황에 비해 약7.6％ 감소하는 것으로 모의되었으며, 계절적으로 볼 때 겨울철과 가을철에는 유출량이 증가하였으나 여름철에는 감소하였다. 그러나, 유출량의 계절적 패턴은 변화가 없는 것으로 모의되었다.