• Title/Summary/Keyword: scientific hypothesis

Search Result 160, Processing Time 0.023 seconds

The Effects of Luck in Belief and Positive Cognitive Bias on Entrepreneurial Self-Efficacy (행운신념이 긍정적 인지편향과 창업효능감에 미치는 영향)

  • Ha, Hwan Ho;Byun, Chung Gyu
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
    • /
    • v.18 no.5
    • /
    • pp.33-44
    • /
    • 2023
  • Entrepreneurial self-efficacy is an important variable that explains people's attitudes and behaviors toward start-ups. In this study, we focused on individual psychological characteristics variables such as luck in belief and positive cognitive bias that affect entrepreneurial self-efficacy. Among these variables, we paid particular attention to luck in belief. The belief that business success depends on luck is widespread, but scientific verification about it has not been much. The reason for the academic indifference is that luck is a kind of superstition, related to precognition or extrasensory perception, and randomly caused by the external environment. The study of luck began in earnest as a measure to measure luck as an individual characteristic variable such as personality was developed. The purpose of this study is to examine the existing studies on luck in belief and to examine the effect of this luck in belief on positive cognitive bias and entrepreneurial self-efficacy through empirical analysis. For empirical analysis, this study conducted an on-line survey of 400 ordinary people and conducted a structural equation model analysis using AMOS 21.0 to verify the hypothesis. As a result of hypothesis testing, all hypotheses that luck in belief would have a positive effect on positive cognitive bias(self-enhancement bias, illusion of control bias, unrealism optimistic bias) were adopted. The hypothesis that positive cognitive bias(self-enhancement bias, illusion of control bias, unrealistic optimism bias) will have a positive effect on entrepreneurial self-efficacy was also adopted. Additional analysis was conducted to examine the mediating role of positive cognitive bias in the relationship between luck in belief and entrepreneurial self-efficacy, which showed that 'luck in belief→positive cognitive bias →entrepreneurial self-efficacy' were statistically significant. Through this, we confirmed the mediating effect of positive cognitive bias in the relationship between luck in belief and entrepreneurial self-efficacy. In the conclusion, the implications and limitations of the study were presented based on the results of this study.

  • PDF

An analysis of the operational efficiency of the major airports worldwide using DEA and Malmquist productivity indices (세계 주요 공항 운영 효율성 분석: DEA와 Malmquist 생산성 지수 분석을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Hong-Seop;Park, Jeong-Rim
    • Journal of Distribution Science
    • /
    • v.11 no.8
    • /
    • pp.5-14
    • /
    • 2013
  • Purpose - We live in a world of constant change and competition. Many airports have specific competitiveness goals and strategies for achieving and maintaining them. The global economic recession, financial crises, and rising oil prices have resulted in an increasingly important role for facility investment and renewal and the implementation of appropriate policies in ensuring the competitive advantage for airports. It is thus important to analyze the factors that enhance efficiency and productivity for an airport. This study aims to determine the efficiency levels of 20 major airports in East Asia, Europe, and North America. Further, this study also suggests suitable policies and strategies for their development. Research design, data, and methodology - This paper employs the DEA-CCR, DEA-BCC, and DEA-Malmquist production index analysis models to determine airport efficiency. The study uses data on the efficiency and productivity of the world's leading airports between 2006 and 2010. The input variables include the airport size, the number of runways, the size of passenger terminals, and the size of cargo terminals. The output variables include the annual number of passengers and the annual cargo volume. The study uses basic data from the 2010 World Airport Traffic Report (ACI). The world's top 20 airports (as rated by the ACI report) are investigated. The study uses the expanded DEA Model and the Super Efficiency Model to identify the most effective airports among the top 20. The Malmquist productivity index analysis is used to measure airport effectiveness. Results - This study analyzes longitudinal and cross-sectional data on the world's top 20 airports covering 2006 to 2010. A CCR analysis shows that the most efficient airports in 2010 were Gatwick Airport (LGW), Zurich Airport (ZRH), Vienna Airport (VIE), Leonardo da Vinci Fiumicino Airport (FCO), Los Angeles International Airport (LAX), Seattle-Tacoma Airport (SEA), San Francisco Airport (SFO), HongKong Airport (HKG), Beijing Capital International Airport (PEK), and Shanghai Pudong Airport (PVG). We find that changes in airport productivity are affected more by technical factors than by airport efficiency. Conclusions - Based on the study results, we offer four airport development proposals. First, a benchmark airport needs to be identified. Second, inefficiency must be reduced and high-cost factors need to be managed. Third, airport operations should be enhanced through technical innovation. Finally, scientific demand forecasting and facility preparation must become the focus of attention. This paper has some limitations. Because the Malmquist productivity index is based on the hypothesis of the, the identified production change could be over- or under-estimated. Further, as DEA estimates the relative efficiency. It also cannot generalize to include all airport conditions because the variables are limited. To measure airport productivity more accurately, other input variables and environmental variables such as financial and policy factors should be included.

An Epistemological Inquiry on the Development of Statistical Concepts (통계적 개념 발달에 관한 인식론적 고찰)

  • Lee, Young-Ha;Nam, Joo-Hyun
    • The Mathematical Education
    • /
    • v.44 no.3 s.110
    • /
    • pp.457-475
    • /
    • 2005
  • We have inquired on what the statistical classes of the secondary schools had been aiming to, say the epistermlogical objects. And we now appreciate that the main obstacle to the systematic articulation is the lack of anticipation on what the statistical concepts are. This study focuses on the ingredients of the statistical concepts. Those are to be the ground of the systematic articulation of statistic courses, especially of the one for the school kids. Thus we required that those ingredients must satisfy the followings. i) directly related to the contents of statistics ii) psychologically developing iii) mutually exclusive each other as much as possible iv) exhaustive enough to cover all statistical concepts We examined what and how statisticians had been doing and the various previous views on these. After all we suggest the following three concepts are the core of conceptual developments of statistic, say the concept of distributions, the summarizing ability and the concept of samples. By the concepts of distributions we mean the frequency views on each random categories and that is developing from the count through the probability along ages. Summarizing ability is another important resources to embed his probe with the data set. It is not only viewed as a number but also to be anticipated as one reflecting a random phenomena. Inductive generalization is one of the most hazardous thing. Statistical induction is a scientific way of challenging this and this starts from distinguishing the chance with the inevitable consequences. One's inductive logic grows up along with one's deductive arguments, nevertheless they are different. The concept of samples reflects' one's view on the sample data and the way of compounding one's logic with the data within one's hypothesis. With these three in mind we observed Korean Statistic Curriculum from K to 12. Distributional concepts are dealt with throughout but not sequenced well. The way of summarization has been introduced in the 1 st, 5th, 7th and the 10th grade as a numerical value only. One activity on the concept of sample is given at the 6th grade. And it jumps into the statistical reasoning at the selective courses of ' Mathematics I ' or of ' Probability and Statistics ' in the grades of 11-12. We want to suggest further studies on the developing stages of these three conceptual features so as to obtain a firm basis of successive statistical articulation.

  • PDF

The Effects of the Instructional Use of Materials Around Everyday Life on Science Academic Achievement: Focused on the Third and Sixth - Grade Level (생활 주변 자료 활용 수업이 학업성취도에 미치는 효과)

  • 김정길;남철우;김석중;송판섭;한광래;최도성;문두석
    • Journal of Korean Elementary Science Education
    • /
    • v.20 no.1
    • /
    • pp.45-57
    • /
    • 2001
  • The purpose of this study is to guide and apply gettable and accessible materials around everyday life into classroom instruction, and to find out their effects on student academic achievement. In order to achieve it, this study was tried to develop and guide available materials around life in teaming activities, to provide a preliminary assignment that could apply the available materials, and to compare its academic achievement to one from field trip loaming. For the hypothesis testing, first, the experimental and comparing classes were selected based on the results of basic learning diagnostic evaluation, which conducted by the researcher being served as a full-time science teacher of the third and sixth grade of K elementary school in Kwangju for 2 years. Secondly, the instructional use of the available materials around life was applied to the experimental class. Also, the instructional use of the existing materials was applied to the comparing class. Finally, for the testing of the effects on academic achievement, the posterio test was implemented after conducting the experimental instruction in knowledge·understanding, inquiry process, and attitude domains classified by the unit characteristics. Using SPSS/WIN program the t-test was performed in order to compare the differences between the two groups. Major findings were as follows: 1) In the achievement test of knowledge·understanding domain, there were no significant differences at the 5% level between the experimental and comparing classes. It could be difficult to say, therefore, that the instructional use of the available materials around life was more effective than the instructional use of the existing materials. However, it had some effects on differences between the third grade final achievement test and sixth grade experimental class. 2) In the achievement test of inquiry process domain, there were some significant differences in that the sixth grade experimental class was higher than the third grade out-of classroom experience unit. It was indicated that the instructional use of the available materials around life had some effects on improving the students' inquiry ability 3) In achievement test of attitude domain, there were some significant differences. It was shown that the self-evaluation test of the sixth grade experimental class unit was higher than that of the third grade out-of classroom experience unit; Especially, the learning activities in the experimental class were more active, and the experimental practice ability was improved. It was presented that the instructional use of the available materials around life had some effects on the students' academic achievement in attitude domain. It was concluded from this study that the instructional use of the available materials around life was less effective on Knowledge understanding domain, but was effective on improving their scientific inquiry ability and interest on science education.

  • PDF

A Review of the Cognitive Neuroscience of Creativity (창의성에 대한 인지신경과학 연구 개관)

  • Cho, Soohyun
    • Korean Journal of Cognitive Science
    • /
    • v.26 no.4
    • /
    • pp.393-433
    • /
    • 2015
  • Creativity refers to the ability to generate novel and useful ideas. Understanding the mechanism of creativity and its enhancement is important in order to solve major problems of the modern society and to improve the wellness of mankind. Creativity is a highly heterogeneous and complex ability which should not be conceptualized as a single entity. Thus, the current literature on creativity is based on a component process approach to creativity. The present study introduces cognitive neuroscience research studying the mechanism of divergent thinking, insight, relational thinking and artistic creativity which are the major components of creativity. Based on an expansive review, the early hypothesis of hemispheric asymmetry emphasizing the importance of the right as opposed to the left hemisphere is not supported by scientific evidence. In addition, there is no consensus or consistency on which specific brain region is related to a certain component of creativity. In fact, there is a mixture of studies reporting involvement of various brain regions across all four lobes of the brain. This inconsistency in the literature most likely reflects heterogeneity of the component processes of creativity and sensitivity of the neural response to differences across tasks and cognitive strategy. The present study introduces examples of representative studies reporting seminal findings on the neural basis and the enhancement of creativity based on innovative methodology. In addition, we discuss limitations of the current cognitive neuroscience approach to creativity and present directions for future research.

Quantitative Flood Forecasting Using Remotely-Sensed Data and Neural Networks

  • Kim, Gwangseob
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2002.05a
    • /
    • pp.43-50
    • /
    • 2002
  • Accurate quantitative forecasting of rainfall for basins with a short response time is essential to predict streamflow and flash floods. Previously, neural networks were used to develop a Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (QPF) model that highly improved forecasting skill at specific locations in Pennsylvania, using both Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) output and rainfall and radiosonde data. The objective of this study was to improve an existing artificial neural network model and incorporate the evolving structure and frequency of intense weather systems in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States for improved flood forecasting. Besides using radiosonde and rainfall data, the model also used the satellite-derived characteristics of storm systems such as tropical cyclones, mesoscale convective complex systems and convective cloud clusters as input. The convective classification and tracking system (CCATS) was used to identify and quantify storm properties such as life time, area, eccentricity, and track. As in standard expert prediction systems, the fundamental structure of the neural network model was learned from the hydroclimatology of the relationships between weather system, rainfall production and streamflow response in the study area. The new Quantitative Flood Forecasting (QFF) model was applied to predict streamflow peaks with lead-times of 18 and 24 hours over a five year period in 4 watersheds on the leeward side of the Appalachian mountains in the mid-Atlantic region. Threat scores consistently above .6 and close to 0.8 ∼ 0.9 were obtained fur 18 hour lead-time forecasts, and skill scores of at least 4% and up to 6% were attained for the 24 hour lead-time forecasts. This work demonstrates that multisensor data cast into an expert information system such as neural networks, if built upon scientific understanding of regional hydrometeorology, can lead to significant gains in the forecast skill of extreme rainfall and associated floods. In particular, this study validates our hypothesis that accurate and extended flood forecast lead-times can be attained by taking into consideration the synoptic evolution of atmospheric conditions extracted from the analysis of large-area remotely sensed imagery While physically-based numerical weather prediction and river routing models cannot accurately depict complex natural non-linear processes, and thus have difficulty in simulating extreme events such as heavy rainfall and floods, data-driven approaches should be viewed as a strong alternative in operational hydrology. This is especially more pertinent at a time when the diversity of sensors in satellites and ground-based operational weather monitoring systems provide large volumes of data on a real-time basis.

  • PDF

Discussion of Preliminary Design Review for MIRIS, the Main Payload of STSAT-3

  • Han, Won-Yong;Jin, Ho;Park, Jang-Hyun;Nam, Uk-Won;Yuk, In-Soo;Lee, Sung-Ho;Park, Young-Sik;Park, Sung-Jun;Lee, Dae-Hee;Ree, Chang-H.;Jeong, Woong-Seob;Moon, Bong-Kon;Cha, Sang-Mok;Cho, Seoung-Hyun;Rhee, Seung-Woo;Park, Jong-Oh;Lee, Seung-Heon;Lee, Hyung-Mok;Matsumoto, Toshio
    • Bulletin of the Korean Space Science Society
    • /
    • 2008.10a
    • /
    • pp.27.1-27.1
    • /
    • 2008
  • KASI (Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute) is developing a compact wide-field survey space telescope system, MIRIS (The Multi-purpose IR Imaging System) to be launched in 2010 as the main payload of the Korea Science and Technology Satellite 3. Through recent System Design Review (SDR) and Preliminary Design Review (PDR), most of the system design concept was reviewed and confirmed. The near IR imaging system adopted short F/2 optics for wide field low resolution observation at wavelength band 0.9~2.0 um minimizing the effect of attitude control system. The mechanical system is composed of a cover, baffle, optics, and detector system using a $256\times256$ Teledyne PICNIC FPA providing a $3.67\times3.67$ degree field of view with a pixel scale of 51.6 arcsec. We designed a support system to minimize heat transfer with Muti-Layer Insulation. The electronics of the MIRIS system is composed of 7 boards including DSP, control, SCIF. Particular attention is being paid to develop mission operation scenario for space observation to minimize IR background radiation from the Earth and Sun. The scientific purpose of MIRIS is to survey the Galactic plane in the emission line of Pa$\alpha$ ($1.88{\mu}m$) and to detect the cosmic infrared background (CIB) radiation. The CIB is being suspected to be originated from the first generation stars of the Universe and we will test this hypothesis by comparing the fluctuations in I (0.9~1.2 um) and H (1.2~2.0 um) bands to search the red shifted Lyman cutoff signature.

  • PDF

Analysis of Inquiry Tasks in Earth Unit of the 10th Grade Science Textbooks (10학년 과학 교과서 지구 단원의 탐구 과제 분석)

  • Kim, Jeong-Yul;Kim, Myung-Suk;Park, Ye-Ri
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
    • /
    • v.26 no.6
    • /
    • pp.501-510
    • /
    • 2005
  • An analysis was done on the “inquiry sections” of Earth Science chapters of 10th grade science textbooks. The Inquiry sections were classified into different types and the frequencies of basic process skills, integrated process skills, and inquiry activities were measured in section to find out whether they sufficiently satisfy the requirements based on the 7th National Curriculum. The number of selected science textbooks that have been used in high school for this study were eleven. The number of inquiry tasks were on an average of 24.0. The types of inquiry sections and the elements of basic and integrated process skills were different in every textbooks. The number of inquiry activities were also different and analyzed more than those presented. They were not integrated activities but presented as scientific process skills. The basic process skills and integrated process skills presented in textbooks were $16\%\;and\;77.2\%$, respectively. However, the distribution of two kinds of process skills were analyzed to be $45.6\%\;and\;55.4\%$, respectively. In the process skills, the frequencies of inferring $(49.5\%)$ and data interpretation (68.7%) were the highest; however, the other process skills including recognizing problem, formulating hypothesis and generalization were not even presented in any of the text books. Due to the lack of the definitions of Science process skills and inquiry activities in the 7th National Curriculum, each text book defined these terms differently. It suggests that the meaning of inquiry, science process skills, and inquiry activities should be operationally defined in the national curriculum and the criteria for construction of inquiry activities are required.

An Analysis of Information Visualization Problems using User Interface Design Principles (이용자 인터페이스 설계 원칙에 의한 정보시각화 시스템 평가 및 문제점 분석)

  • Lee, Jee-Yeon
    • Journal of Information Management
    • /
    • v.34 no.2
    • /
    • pp.67-88
    • /
    • 2003
  • There have been increased interests in information visualization. Information visualization has been considered as a way to summarize textual data so that the users can access large amount of data more efficiently and effectively. However, many information visualization techniques stem from scientific visualization techniques, which might be difficult for the regular users to understand. More importantly, the system models used by most of the information visualization techniques do not have real world counterpart. For example, most of the users do not represent or process the textual data in terms of fisheye view or a topological map. This means that there is no affordance on the current information visualization systems from the users point of view. In this paper, we analyzed this problem by using the user interface design principles to point out what lacks in the current information visualization systems. More specifically, we have applied Nielson's Heuristic Evaluation technique to review four representative information visualization techniques. The analysis results confirmed our original hypothesis on why the current information visualization systems are not part of the mainstream information systems. Finally, we suggested to invest more efforts in improving the currently prevalent and familiar bullet list type textual information presentation method based on the usability studies and the intelligent content analysis.

An Analysis of Abductive Reasoning on the Inquiry of Scientists and Elementary School Gifted Children in Science (과학자와 초등과학영재의 탐구에서 나타난 귀추적 추론 분석)

  • Jeong, Sun-Hee;Choi, Hyun-Dong;Yang, Il-Ho
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
    • /
    • v.31 no.6
    • /
    • pp.901-919
    • /
    • 2011
  • The purpose of this study was to analyze abductive reasoning on the inquiry of scientists and elementary school gifted children in science. Subjects for this study were eight scientists and eight elementary school gifted children in science studying in the Academy of Gifted Child Education in Science affiliated with Seoul National University of Education. As a result, abductive reasoning on the scientific inquiry of scientists and gifted children showed the three stages of generating hypotheses, designing the experiments, and interpreting the results. The abductive reasoning in each stage characterized the five types as complex abduction, analogical abduction, observation-based abduction, logic-based abduction, selective abduction. The sub-reasoning process of the abductive reasoning of gifted children in science differed in some ways from that of scientists. First, for most scientists, representing a method or representing a casual explican appeared after searching for the characteristics of variables but for gifted children in science, searching for the characteristics of variables appeared after representing a method. Second, scientists tend to rely on logic-based abduction but gifted children in science tend to rely on observationbased abduction. Third, scientists reason by the similar rate in three steps: generating the hypothesis, designing the experience, interpreting the results. On the other hand, most gifted children in science reason about designing the experience.