• 제목/요약/키워드: scenario sampling

검색결과 42건 처리시간 0.03초

Statistical Approach for Derivation of Quantitative Acceptance Criteria for Radioactive Wastes to Near Surface Disposal Facility

  • Park Jin Beak;Park Joo Wan;Lee Eun Yong;Kim Chang Lak
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제35권5호
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    • pp.387-398
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    • 2003
  • For reference human intrusion scenarios constructed in previous study, a probabilistic safety assessment to derive the radionuclide concentration limits for the low- and intermediate- level radioactive waste disposal facility is conducted. Statistical approach by the Latin Hypercube Sampling method is introduced and new assumptions about the disposal facility system are examined and discussed. In our previous study of deterministic approach, the post construction scenarios appeared as most limiting scenario to derive the radionuclide concentration limits. Whereas, in this statistical approach, the post drilling and the post construction scenarios are mutually competing for the scenario selection according to which radionuclides are more important in safety assessment context. Introduction of new assumption shows that the post drilling scenario can play an important role as the limiting scenario instead of the post-construction scenario. When we compare the concentration limits between the previous and this study, concentrations of radionuclides such as Nb-94, Cs-137 and alpha-emitting radionuclides show elevated values than the case of the previous study. Remaining radionuclides such as Sr-90, Tc-99 I-129, Ni-59 and Ni-63 show lower values than the case of the previous study.

수입 소의 검역검사 수준에 따른 블루텅 검출 확률 비교 (Comparison of Probability of Detecting Bluetongue in Quarantine Testing for the Imported Cattle with Special Focus on the Sampling Scenario)

  • 박선일
    • 한국임상수의학회지
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    • 제27권4호
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    • pp.421-426
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    • 2010
  • In view of free from bluetongue (BT) in the domestic cattle population in Korea, the key of quarantine testing for BT virus (BTV) infection is detection of cattle previously exposed to the virus. The objective of this study was to estimate the probability of detecting a cattle infected with BTV using a stochastic modeling analysis of existing quarantine testing data. Three testing scenarios were considered in this study: serological testing of all animals in all imported lots (scenario 1), serological testing of a sample of cattle from all imported lots (scenario 2), and serological testing of 50% of imported lots (scenario 3). In scenario 2 and 3, it was assumed that cattle were sampled (sample size) within each lot to detect 5% of the cattle in each lot with a 95% confidence, taking into account diagnostic sensitivity of the ELISA (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay). The model output was the total number of BTV-infected cattle and the prevalence of BTV infection in imported cattle from the US, Australia, Canada and Japan. Compared to the scenario 1, the probability of detecting a BTV-infected cattle was estimated to be 19% and 1.6% in scenario 2 and 3, respectively. Furthermore, the analyses showed a 95% confidence that BTV prevalence was less or equal to $9.7{\times}10^{-4}$ (median = $1.5{\times}10^{-5}$), indicating that, for the scenario 2 and 3 with serological testing for a sample of cattle, the risk of introducing an exotic strain of BTV into Korea through the importation of live cattle would not be acceptable.

RDII발생 및 기존 시나리오에 따른 오수간선 네트워크 설계방법 검토 (Assessment of Design Method about Sanitary Sewer Network according to RDII and Established Scenario)

  • 김정률;오재일
    • 한국물환경학회지
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    • 제32권4호
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    • pp.367-374
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    • 2016
  • In this study, the RDII impact on sewer designing in the upstream monitoring area (A site) was considered. Based on the long-term (1/1/2011~12/31/2011) rainfall and flow data consisting of 10-min interval sampling in the nearby design area (B site), the maximum RDII/DWF ratio was selected. The sewer network system at B site was evaluated by the Manning equation. Scenario 1 considering the hourly maximum flow with respect to the flow velocity showed that none of the sewer pipes satisfied the minimum flow velocity condition (0.6 m/s), and 40 pipes did not achieve half of the velocity condition. In scenario 2 considering I/I, 1 the pipes satisfied 0.6 m/s, and 35 pipes showed 0.3 m/s. Scenario 3 reflected the effect of RDII. Velocities in 26 pipes were less than 0.3 m/s, and 4 pipes satisfied the velocity condition. With respect to the allowance rate, 17 pipes were shown to have more than 99%, and none of the pipes satisfied less than 95% of the allowance rate in scenario 1. In scenario 2, 17 Ed: Per the Table pipes showed more than 99% and one pipe showed less than 95%. In scenario 3, 16 pipes showed more than 99% of the allowance rate, and 19 pipes showed less than 95%. Based on these results, it is predicted that deposition would occur due to the slow flow velocity; however, capacity would not be a problem.

실도로 주행 조건 기반의 자율주행자동차 고위험도 평가 시나리오 개발 및 검증에 관한 연구 (A Study on Development of High Risk Test Scenario and Evaluation from Field Driving Conditions for Autonomous Vehicle)

  • 정승환;유제명;정낙승;유민상;편무송;김재부
    • 자동차안전학회지
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    • 제10권4호
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    • pp.40-49
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    • 2018
  • Currently, a lot of researches about high risk test scenarios for autonomous vehicle and advanced driver assistance systems have been carried out to evaluate driving safety. This study proposes new type of test scenario that evaluate the driving safety for autonomous vehicle by reconstructing accident database of national automotive sampling system crashworthiness data system (NASS-CDS). NASS-CDS has a lot of detailed accident data in real fields, but there is no data of accurate velocity in accident moments. So in order to propose scenario generation method from accident database, we try to reconstruct accident moment from accident sketch diagram. At the same step, we propose an accident of occurrence frequency which is based on accident codes and road shapes. The reconstruction paths from accident database are integrated into evaluation of simulation environment. Our proposed methods and processor are applied to MILS (Model In the Loop Simulation) and VILS (Vehicle In the Loop Simulation) test environments. In this paper, a reasonable method of accident reconstruction typology for autonomous vehicle evaluation of feasibility is proposed.

우리나라 일부 석면광산 지역에서 ABS를 이용한 석면노출 및 위해성 평가 (Asbestos Exposure and Risk Assessment by ABS(Activity Based Sampling) for Former Asbestos Mining Areas in Korea)

  • 이준혁;김대종;최성원;김현욱
    • 한국산업보건학회지
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    • 제25권1호
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    • pp.72-81
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    • 2015
  • Objectives: The aim of this study was to investigate the exposure and risk assessment of residents near asbestos mines in Korea. Methods: To assess asbestos types and airborne concentrations, air monitoring was performed in the neighborhoods of Kwangcheon (KC) and Sinsuk (SS) mines, which were leading South Korean mines in the past. In addition, activity-based-sampling (ABS) of residents' particular activities were conducted in order to estimate the Excess Lifetime Cancer Risks (ELCRs) for the residents. Conclusions: The average concentration of airborne asbestos in KC was 0.0014 f/cc and 0.0015 f/cc by PCM and TEM, respectively. In SS it was equal at 0.0012 f/cc by PCM and TEM. No statistically significant difference was found in the average concentration of airborne asbestos between the two mines. The average asbestos concentration of ABS was 0.0048 f/cc (PCM) and 0.0042 f/cc (TEM) in KC, while it was 0.0137 f/cc (PCM) and 0.0125 f/cc (TEM) in SS. It was found that the average asbestos concentration of ABS in SS was statistically significantly higher than that of KC (p<0.01). The results of ELCRs by scenario in KC showed that the scenarios of bicycle, car, weed control, weed whacking, child playing in the dirt, and physical training fell within $1{\times}0^{-6}-1{\times}10^{-4}$, which is the acceptable range of ELCR. The scenarios of motorcycle, walker, digging, and field sweeping, however, exceeded the acceptable range. In SS, only the scenario of car fell within the acceptable range, while all of the other scenarios exceeded the acceptable range.

Important Radionuclides and Their Sensitivity for Ground water Pathway of a Hypothetical Near-Surface Disposal Facility

  • Park, J. W.;K. Chang;Kim, C. L.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제33권2호
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    • pp.156-165
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    • 2001
  • A radiological safety assessment was performed for a hypothetical near-surface radioactive waste repository as a simple screening calculation to identify important nuclides and to provide insights on the data needs for a successful demonstration of compliance. Individual effective doses were calculated for a conservative ground water pathway scenario considering well drilling near the site boundary. Sensitivity of resulting ingestion dose to input parameter values was also analyzed using Monte Carlo sampling. Considering peak dose rate and assessment time scale, C-14 and T-129 were identified as important nuclides and U-235 and U-238 as potentially important nuclides. For C-14, the dose was most sensitive to Darcy velocity in aquifer The distribution coefficient showed high degree of sensitivity for I-129 release.

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Generating global warming scenarios with probability weighted resampling and its implication in precipitation with nonparametric weather generator

  • Lee, Taesam;Park, Taewoong
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2015년도 학술발표회
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    • pp.226-226
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    • 2015
  • The complex climate system regarding human actions is well represented through global climate models (GCMs). The output from GCMs provides useful information about the rate and magnitude of future climate change. Especially, the temperature variable is most reliable among other GCM outputs. However, hydrological variables (e.g. precipitation) from GCM outputs for future climate change contain too high uncertainty to use in practice. Therefore, we propose a method that simulates temperature variable with increasing in a certain level (e.g. 0.5oC or 1.0oC increase) as a global warming scenario from observed data. In addition, a hydrometeorological variable can be simulated employing block-wise sampling technique associated with the temperature simulation. The proposed method was tested for assessing the future change of the seasonal precipitation in South Korea under global warming scenario. The results illustrate that the proposed method is a good alternative to levy the variation of hydrological variables under global warming condition.

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전국 하천수 중 잔류우려 농약 실태조사 (Monitoring of Pesticide Residues Concerned in Stream Water)

  • 황인성;오예진;권혜영;노진호;김단비;문병철;오민석;노현호;박상원;최근형;류송희;김병석;오경석;임치환;이효섭
    • 한국환경농학회지
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    • 제38권3호
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    • pp.173-184
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    • 2019
  • 우리나라 주요 하천수의 사용 중인 농약의 실태조사를 위해서 전국 50지점을 선정 후, 1차 (농약 사용 비성수기, 4/5월)및 2차(농약 사용 성수기, 8/9월)로 나누어 실시를 하였다. 하천수 모니터링 결과 농약 1차, 2차 때 각각 11, 28개의 농약이 검출되었다. 농약은 7월부터 기온이 올라가면서 병 해충 방제를 위해 농약사용량이 증가하기 때문에 2차시기에 농약검출량이 증가한 것으로 판단된다. 검출빈도 10회 이상의 농약은 1차 시기에는 butachlor, carbofuran, 2차 시기에는 tricyclazole, azoxystrobin, chlorantraniliprole, thiamethoxam, isoprothiolane 5종이었다. 검출농약은 대부분 수도용 농약으로 검출비율은 90%, 81%로 높게 나타났다. 이러한 이유는 하천수 중 잔류농약은 논에서 사용된 농약이 비산되어 직접적으로 하천수로 잔류되기도 하며 또는 토양에 잔류된 농약이 논물을 방류하면서 하천수로 이동하기 때문이다. 네 개의 scenario를 이용하여 위해성 평가를 진행하였을 때, butachlor, carbofuran, carbendazim, chlorantranilprole 및 oxadiazon에서 잠재위해성 및 위해성이 있는 것으로 평가되었다. 추후 모니터링 연구와 수서생물에 위해성이 나타나지 않는 농도 이하로 잔류할 수 있도록 농약안전사용기준 설정연구가 필요할 것으로 보인다.

Proposal for the list of potential radionuclides of interest during NPP site characterization or final status surveys

  • Seo, Hyung-Woo;Oh, Jae Yong;Shin, Weon Gyu
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제53권1호
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    • pp.234-243
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    • 2021
  • In the research or project planning for the decommissioning of a nuclear power plant, one of several preparations will be the establishment of a list of potential radionuclides to be considered at the time of characterization or final status surveys. Reliable data for selection of potential radionuclides during the transition period to prepare for decommissioning will depend heavily on historical data at the site or, where possible, sampling analysis. However, during the transition period, direct sampling can be challenging, depending on the circumstances of the site or national regulation. A methodology of selecting potential radionuclides for nuclear facility sites which largely consists of three major processes: production of initial list of radionuclides, selection of the insignificant radionuclide that will be eliminated, and consideration of site characterization or sampling. For developing a preliminary list of potential radionuclides for Kori Unit 1 decommissioning, the list of initial radionuclides was made referring to the technical documents applied at decommissioned NPPs in the U.S and additional reference materials applied until the operation of NPPs in Korea. For the screening of insignificant radionuclides, we applied criterion of less than 0.1% of the amount of radioactivity inventory and confirmed the dose fraction using the RESRAD code. The final suit of radionuclides was established, which should be supplemented by reflecting site characterization and sampling process in the future. Thus, the methodology and results for the selection of potential radionuclides suggested in this paper can give an insight as a future reference to deriving DCGLs in relation to site remediation of decommissioning nuclear plants.

유해대기오염물질 모니터링을 위한 대도시 우선순위 측정지점 선정기법 제안 (Suggestions on the Selection Method of Priority Monitoring Sites for Hazardous Air Pollutants in Megacities)

  • 권혜옥;김성준;김용표;김상균;홍지형;최성득
    • 한국대기환경학회지
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    • 제33권6호
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    • pp.544-553
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    • 2017
  • There is an overall guideline of the installation of air quality monitoring stations in Korea, but specified steps for the selection of monitoring sites for hazardous air pollutants(HAPs) are not provided. In this study, we proposed a systematic method for the selection of monitoring sites for HAPs using geographic information system (GIS). As a case study, the Seoul metropolitan area (Seoul, Incheon, and Gyeonggi Province) was chosen, and 15 factors including population, vehicle registration, and emission data were compiled for each grid cell ($7km{\times}7km$). The number of factors above the top 30% of individual data for each grid cell was used to select priority monitoring sites for HAPs. In addition, several background sites were added for data comparison and source identification. Three scenarios were suggested: Scenario 1 with 7 sites, Scenario 2 with 17 sites, and Scenario 3 with 30 sites. This proposal is not the final result for an intensive monitoring program, but it is an example of method development for selecting appropriate sampling sites. These results can be applied not only to HAPs monitoring in megacities but also to the national HAPs monitoring network.