• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.14 no.8
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• pp.203-209
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• 2016

The advertising media is undergoing a dramatic change mainly due to the increased use of smartphone. This study predicts the future of the advertising industry driven by the mobile advertising using scenario planning. Targeting technologies, restriction on the use of personal information, and overcoming ad avoidance were selected as key uncertain variables expected to impact on the growth of the mobile advertising 5 years later. With the support by expert interviews, the $2{\times}2$ matric combines two cases to generate four scenarios; the one whether mobile ads surpass PC-based online ads, the other whether the combined force of mobile and PC-based ads surpass the traditional media in advertising spendings. Each scenario is articulated according to the future of key variables. The most likely scenario is that mobile will dominate the advertising media market. However, it is important not to ignore different scenarios because key variables evolves in unexpected manner and then they can become reality. The future research will combine its key variables with social and economic ones and segment technical variables in more details.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.14 no.spc
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• pp.1096-1127
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• 2011

This research focus on estimating the economic effects of TOD system development from the perspective of new market creation, R&D planning cost reduction and increase of R&D projects' commercialization success rates. The research is conducted through simulation and scenario analysis with assumptions about economic effect parameters. Scenario analysis shows that scenario 1 (the application ratio of the new TOD system to total Korean R&D programs' planning is 1.4%) results in total economic effects, 921.3 billion won in 2011 price with B/C ratio 6.15, that scenario 2 (the application ratio is 1.9%) results in total economic effects, 1,250.3 billion won in 2011 price with B/C ratio 8.34, and that scenario 3 (the application ratio is 0.9%) results in total economic effects, 592.2 billion won in 2011 price with B/C ratio 3.95. The research contributed to the prior evaluation of economic validity of "R&D on Technology Opportunity Development (TOD) system" and to cultivating the new methodology of economic benefit estimation in the area of R&D on system development.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.6
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• pp.491-501
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• 2018

This study presents a systematic framework to derive the best values of design and planning parameters for low impact development (LID) practices. LID was developed to rehabilitate the distorted hydrological cycle due to the rapid urbanization. This study uses Water Management Analysis Module (WMAM) to perform sensitivity analysis and multiple scenario analysis for LID design and planning parameters of Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). This procedure was applied to an urban watershed which have experienced rapid urbanization in recent years. As a result, the design and planning scenario derived by WMAM shows lower total flows and peak flow, and larger infiltration than arbitrary scenarios for LID design and planning parameters. In the future, economic analysis can be added for this application in the field.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.1-13
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• 2018

Earthwork planning is one of the critical issues in a construction process management. For the construction process management, there are some different approaches such as optimizing construction with either mathematical methodologies or heuristics with simulations. This paper propose a simulated earthwork scenario and an optimal path for the simulation using a reinforcement learning. For reinforcement learning, we use two different Markov decision process, or MDP, formulations with interacting excavator agent and truck agent, sequenced learning, and independent learning. The simulation result shows that two different formulations can reach the optimal planning for a simulated earthwork scenario. This planning could be a basis for an automatic construction management.

• The Journal of Korea Robotics Society
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.23-32
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• 2008

This paper presents a task planning system for a steward robot, which has been developed as an interactive intermediate agent between an end-user and a complex smart home environment called the ISH (Intelligent Sweet Home) at KAIST (Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology). The ISH is a large-scale robotic environment with various assistive robots and home appliances for independent living of the elderly and the people with disabilities. In particular, as an approach for achieving human-friendly human-robot interaction, we aim at 'simplification of task commands' by the user. In this sense, a task planning system has been proposed to generate a sequence of actions effectively for coordinating subtasks of the target subsystems from the given high-level task command. Basically, the task planning is performed under the framework of STRIPS (Stanford Research Institute Problem Solver) representation and the split planning method. In addition, we applied a state-partitioning technique to the backward split planning method to reduce computational time. By analyzing the obtained graph, the planning system decomposes an original planning problem into several independent sub-problems, and then, the planning system generates a proper sequence of actions. To show the effectiveness of the proposed system, we deal with a scenario of a planning problem in the ISH.

• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.163-172
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• 2017

Because of abnormal weather, a heavy snow on the Northern latitudes occurs frequently. This has resulted in significant damage and recovery costs. In korea, it has been declared a special disaster area due to heavy snowfall in Gangneung and Pohang 2004, 2005 and 2011, so there was a revision of action instruction for the road snow removal. Although, in our current system, snow removing methodology, regional equipment holdings, and snow responsible interval, respectively, has been classified by the National Highway, near cities and provinces support system not yet prepared. Only, if snow removing is not possible within the region itself, which contained the contents of "support and assistance to military or nearby offices requests". In this thesis, we studied the disaster scenario development according to heavy snow and the response and support system to the features of each regional. For the scenario deduction, we preferentially collected day snowfall and disaster yearbook data to regionals, classified similar pattern and plotted GIS snow map. We also classified heavy snow disaster by region and type and we deduced five-step scenario. The five-step scenario is nationwide(1st-stage), the National Capital region(2nd-stage), the Chungcheong Provinces(3rd-stage), the Kangwon province(4th-stage) and the Ch?l a provinces(5th-stage). Therefore we build near provinces support system according to five-step scenario.

• 한국경영정보학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2007.11a
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• pp.316-321
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• 2007

Effective Training has been recognized as one of the most important success factors for enterprise resource planning (ERP) system operations. However, both ERP system vendors and user companies have failed to provide an effective training method for users because practical business process cases cannot be formalized. Also, incomplete testing by ERP system vendors results in insufficient and ineffective user training. This paper suggests a scenario framework for ERP testing and training (SF-ETT). SF-ETT is constructed by expanding the practice-based ERP testing scenario construction framework designed for uniERPII. SF-ETT contains concrete business process entities that users understand actually and provides practice definition, notation, and architecture.

• Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.59-68
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• 2014

The Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011 had an extensive impact on the national electricity plans. This paper outlines alternative electricity scenarios that meet the goals of nuclear phase-out and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction. This paper also analyzes the results of each scenario in respect to the electricity mix, GHG emissions, costs and employment effects. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP) model was used to simulate the annual electricity demand and supply system from 2011 to 2030. The reference year was 2009. Scenarios are reference (where existing plans are continued), A1, A2, B1, B2, and C2 (where the levels of demand management and nuclear phase-out are different). The share of renewable energy in the electricity mix in 2030 for each scenario will be increased from about 1% in 2009 to 8% in the reference scenario and from 11% to 31% in five alternative scenarios. Total cumulative cost increases up to 14% more than the reference scenario by replacing nuclear power plants with renewable energy in alternative scenarios could be affordable. Deploying enough renewable energy to meet such targets requires a roadmap for electricity price realization, expansion of research, development and deployment for renewable energy technologies, establishment of an organization dedicated to renewable energy, and ambitious targets for renewable energy.

• Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.133-144
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• 2020

Korean economy has experienced a very rapid growth largely due to the change of the innovation system since the last half century. The recent outbreak of COVID-19 impacts the global economy as well as Korea's innovation system. In order to understand the influence of the shock to the Korean technological system, we have forecast the future of the system combining qualitative and quantitative techniques such as expert panel, cross impact analysis, and scenario planning. According to the results, we have identified 39 driving forces influencing the change of Korea's technological innovation system. Four scenarios have been suggested based on the predetermined factors and core uncertainties. In other words, uncertainties of emergence of the regions and global value chains generate four scenarios: regional growth, unstable hope, returning to the past, and regional conflicts. The 'regional growth' scenario is regarded as the most preferable, whereas the 'regional conflicts' scenario is unavoidable. In conclusion, we put forward some policy implications to boost the regional innovation system by exploiting the weakened global value chains in order to move on to the most preferable scenario away from the return to the past regime.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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• v.33 no.3
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• pp.163-172
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• 2015

This study examined the potential effects of urban growth on streamflow in the Gyungan River watershed, Korea, using urban containment scenarios. First, two scenarios (conservation and development) were established, and SLEUTH model was adapted to predict urban growth into the year 2060 with 20 years interval under two scenarios in the study area. Urban growth was larger under scenario 2, focusing on development, than under scenario 1, focusing on conservation. Most urban growth was predicted to involve the conversion of farmland, forest, and grasslands to urban areas. Streamflow in future periods under these scenarios was simulated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Each scenario showed distinct seasonal variations in streamflow. Although urban growth had a small effect on streamflow, urban growth may heighten the problems of increased seasonal variability in streamflow caused by other factor, such as climate change. This results obtained in this study provide further insight into the availability of future water resource and can aid in urban containment planning to mitigate the negative effects of urban growth in the study area.