• Title/Summary/Keyword: scenario planning

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A Study on Improvement of Parking Guidance System to Low-Power Operation for Green Building

  • Lee, Jeong-Jun;Oh, Young-Tae;Lee, Choul-Ki;Yun, Il-Soo;Chung, Sang-Ho
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2011
  • The parking guidance system can increase driver's convenience with detailed parking information service, but it continuously consumes electrical energy with large amount of sensors, displays and control modules. With the increase of the demand for green and sustainable building design, it becomes a meaningful issue for parking guidance system to reduce operating power. This paper presents the preliminary design and estimated results of a parking guidance system which is optimized to reduce the power consumption mainly on detectors and displays. The system design is based on commercial wireless parking detectors, wireless-loop-detector and earth-magnetic-detector. We have performed system architecture design, communication network design, parking information service scenario planning, battery life regulation and at last operating power estimation. With the 7 years of battery replace cycle, the estimated result for power consumption of designed system was 0.33W/slot, which is 13% of the traditional system's estimation result. The estimated annual maintain cost was similar to the traditional ultrasonic sensor based system's. The low power operable designed system can be expected to reduce CO2 emission.

The Effect of the Demand Forecast on the Energy Mix in the National Electricity Supply and Demand Planning (전력수급계획 수립시 수요예측이 전원혼합에 미치는 영향)

  • Kang, Kyoung-Uk;Ko, Bong-Jin;Chung, Bum-Jin
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.114-124
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    • 2009
  • The Ministry of Knowledge and Economy (MKE) establishes the Basic Plan for Long-Term Electricity Supply and Demand(BPE) biannually, a governmental plan for the stable electricity supply. This study investigated the effects of the electric demand forecast on the energy mix. A simplified simulation model was developed, which replaces the WASP program developed by the KPX and verified by comparing both results. Three different electric demand scenarios were devised based upon the 2005 electric demand forecast: Proper, 5 % higher, and 5% lower. The simplified model calculates the energy mix for each scenario of the year 2005. Then it calculates the energy mix for the proper electric demand forecast of the year 2007 using the energy mixes of the three scenarios as the initial conditions, so that it reveals the effect of electric demand forecast of the previous BPE on the energy mix of the next BPE. As the proper electric demand forecasts of the year 2005 and 2007 are the same, there is no change in the previous and the next BPEs. However when the electric demand forecasts were 5% higher in the previous BPE and proper in the next BPE, some of the planned power plant construction in the previous BPE had to be canceled. Similarly, when the electric demand forecasts were 5% lower in the previous BPE and proper in the next BPE, power plant construction should be urgently increased to meet the increased electric demand. As expected the LNG power plants were affected as their construction periods are shorter than coal fired or nuclear power plants. This study concludes that the electric demand forecast is very important and that it has the risk of long term energy mix.

Spatio-temporal variability of future wind energy over the Korean Peninsular using Climate Change Scenarios (기후변화 시나리오를 활용한 한반도 미래 풍력에너지의 시공간적 변동성 전망)

  • Kim, Yumi;Lim, Yoon-Jin;Lee, Hyun-Kyoung;Choi, Byoung-Choel
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.49 no.6
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    • pp.833-848
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    • 2014
  • The assessment of the current and future climate change-induced potential wind energy is an important issue in the planning and operations of wind farm. Here, the authors analyze spatiotemporal characteristics and variabilities of wind energy over Korean Peninsula in the near future (2006-2040) using Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP) scenarios data. In this study, National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR) regional climate model HadGEM3-RA based RCP 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios are analyzed. The comparison between ERA-interim and HadGEM3-RA during the period of 1981-2005 indicates that the historical simulation of HadGEM3-RA slightly overestimates (underestimates) the wind energy over the land (ocean). It also shows that interannual and intraseasonal variability of hindcast data is generally larger than those of reanalysis data. The investigation of RCP scenarios based future wind energy presents that future wind energy density will increase over the land and decrease over the ocean. The increase in the wind energy and its variability is particularly significant over the mountains and coastal areas, such as Jeju island in future global warming. More detailed analysis presents that the changes in synoptic conditions over East Asia in future decades can influence on the predicted wind energy abovementioned. It is also suggested that the uncertainty of the predicted future wind energy may increase because of the increase of interannual and intra-annual variability. In conclusion, our results can be used as a background data for devising a plan to develop and operate wind farm over the Korean Peninsula.

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Comprehensive Development Plans for the Low- and Intermediate-Level Radioactive Waste Disposal Facility in Korea and Preliminary Safety Assessment (우리나라 중·저준위 방사성폐기물 처분시설 종합개발계획(안)과 예비안전성평가)

  • Jung, Kang Il;Kim, Jin Hyeong;Kwon, Mi Jin;Jeong, Mi Seon;Hong, Sung Wook;Park, Jin Beak
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.385-410
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    • 2016
  • The disposal facility in Gyeongju is planning to dispose of 800,000 packages of low- and intermediate- level radioactive waste. This facility will be developed as a complex disposal facility that has various types of disposal facilities and accompanying management. In this study, based on the comprehensive development plan of the disposal facility, a preliminary post-closure safety assessment is performed to predict the phase development of the total capacity for the 800,000 packages to be disposed of at the site. The results for each scenario meet the performance target of the disposal facility. The assessment revealed that there is a significant impact of the inventory of intermediate-level radionuclide waste on the safety evaluation. Due to this finding, we introduce a disposal limit value for intermediate-level radioactive waste. With stepwise development of safety case, this development plan will increase the safety of disposal facilities by reducing uncertainties within the future development of the underground silo disposal facilities.

Estimation and validation of the genetic coefficient of cv. Superior for the DSSAT-CSM (DSSAT 작물모형을 위한 수미품종의 품종모수의 결정과 기후변화에서의 활용)

  • Bak, Gyeryeong;Lee, Gyejun;Lee, Eunkyeong
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.166-174
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    • 2018
  • Potato(Solanum tuberosum L.) is one of the major food crop in the world following rice, wheat, and maize. It is thus important to project yield predict of potato under climate change conditions for assessment of food security. A crop growth modelling is widely used to simulate crop growth condition and total yield of various crops under a given climate condition. The decision support system for agrotechnology transfer (DSSAT) cropping system model, which was developed by U.S. which package integrating several models of 27 different crops, have been used to project crop yield for the impact assessment of climate change on crop production. In this study, we simulated potato yield using RCP 8.5 climate change scenario data, as inputs to the DSSAT model in five regions of Korea. The genetic coefficients of potato cultivar for 'superior', which is one of the most widely cultivated potato variety in Korea were determined. The GenCalc program, which is a submodule of the DSSAT package, was used to determine the genetic coefficients for the superior cultivar. The values of genetic coefficients were validated using results of 39 experiments performed over seven years in five regions. As a case study, the potato yield was projected that total yields of potato across five regions would increase by 26% in 2050s but decrease by 17% in 2090s, compared with 2010s. These results suggested that the needs for cultivation and irrigation technologies would be considerably large for planning and implementation of climate change adaptation for potato production in Korea.

Projecting Future Paddy Irrigation Demands in Korea Using High-resolution Climate Simulations (고해상도 기후자료를 이용한 우리나라의 논 관개요구량 예측)

  • Chung, Sang-Ok
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.44 no.3
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    • pp.169-177
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    • 2011
  • The impacts of climate change on paddy irrigation water demands in Korea have been analyzed. High-resolution ($27{\times}27\;km$) climate data for the SRES A2 scenario produced by the Korean Meteorological Research Institute (METRI) and the observed baseline climatology dataset were used. The outputs from the ECHO-G GCM model were dynamically downscaled using the MM5 regional model by the METRI. The Geographic information system (GIS) was used to produce maps showing the spatial changes in irrigation water requirements for rice paddies. The results showed that the growing season mean temperature for future scenarios was projected to increase by $1.5^{\circ}C$ (2020s), $3.3^{\circ}C$ (2050s) and $5.3^{\circ}C$ (2080s) as compared with the baseline value (1971~2000). The growing season rainfall for future scenarios was projected to increase by 0.1% (2020s), 4.9% (2050s) and 19.3% (2080s). Assuming cropping area and farming practices remain unchanged, the total volumetric irrigation demand was projected to increase by 2.8% (2020s), 4.9% (2050s) and 4.5% (2080s). These projections are contrary to the previous study that used HadCM3 outputs and projected decreasing irrigation demand. The main reason for this discrepancy is the difference with the projected climate of the GCMs used. The temporal and spatial variations were large and should be considered in the irrigation water resource planning and management in the future.

Analysis of the Factors for the Box Office Success in Korean, Chinese and Japanese Film Market Approach to the Storytelling (스토리텔링의 관점에서 본 영화흥행요소분석 - 한국·중국·일본영화를 중심으로)

  • Park, Chul
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.13 no.7
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    • pp.51-61
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    • 2013
  • This Paper aims to explore the key factors that drive box-office success in Korean, Chinese and Japanese film market regarding to the storytelling of the movies. At first, I researched the top 20 movies at the box office of Korean, Chinese and Japanese film market from 2007 to 2011.And then I tried to figure out the key factors for the success and the differences among those countries. Usually the purpose of the movie planning in Korea is for the domestic market. In the profit structure of Korean film industry, it is really hard to focus on the overseas film market. In Chinese film market, recently it has been changed a lot especially film genre. The movie liked to watch is melodrama, romantic comedy movie It is being changed to the comedy genre from the war and martial arts movie. And it is emphasized the importance of the scenario in the film production. They want to watch their lives like a real and dreams at the movie and the movie tries to show this trend. In Japanese film market, they made movies in which TV drama, animation and cartoon according to the O.S.M.U. strategy. The movies like to watch are the blockbuster movies, horror movies, thriller movies and melodrama. Comparing with Korea and China, they like movies which show more fantastic and fairy tale imagination.

Water Quality Analysis of Hongcheon River Basin Under Climate Change (기후변화에 따른 홍천강 유역의 수질 변화 분석)

  • Kim, Duckhwan;Hong, Seung Jin;Kim, Jungwook;Han, Daegun;Hong, Ilpyo;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.348-358
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    • 2015
  • Impacts of climate change are being observed in the globe as well as the Korean peninsula. In the past 100 years, the average temperature of the earth rose about 0.75 degree in celsius, while that of Korean peninsula rose about 1.5 degree in celsius. The fifth Assessment Report of IPCC(Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change) predicts that the water pollution will be aggravated by change of hydrologic extremes such as floods and droughts and increase of water temperature (KMA and MOLIT, 2009). In this study, future runoff was calculated by applying climate change scenario to analyze the future water quality for each targe period (Obs : 2001 ~ 2010, Target I : 2011 ~ 2040, Target II : 2041 ~ 2070, Target III : 2071 ~ 2100) in Hongcheon river basin, Korea. In addition, The future water quality was analyzed by using multiple linear regression analysis and artificial neural networks after flow-duration curve analysis. As the results of future water quality prediction in Hongcheon river basin, we have known that BOD, COD and SS will be increased at the end of 21 century. Therefore, we need consider long-term water and water quality management planning and monitoring for the improvement of water quality in the future. For the prediction of more reliable future water quality, we may need consider various social factors with climate components.

The Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts on the Water Scarcity of the Han River Basin in South Korea Using High Resolution RCM Data (고해상도 RCM 자료를 이용한 기후변화가 한강유역의 수자원(이수적 측면)에 미치는 영향 평가)

  • Kim, Soo-Jun;Kim, Byung-Sik;Jun, Hwan-Don;Kim, Hung-Soo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.295-308
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    • 2010
  • As an attempt to explore the impact of droughts which may be worse by the climate change, the change in the water balance of the Han-river basin is analyzed. To accomplish it, we suggest a procedure consisting of three successive sub-procedures: daily rainfall generation for 70 years by the RegCM3 RCM ($27{\times}27\;km$) with the A2 scenario, daily discharge simulations by SLURP using the generated daily rainfall data, and monthly water balance analysis by K-WEAP (Korean Water Evaluation and Planning System) based on the SLURP simulation. Since significant uncertainty is involved in forecasting the future water consumption and water yields, we assumed three water consumption scenarios and fifty water yields scenarios. Three water consumption scenarios are, namely, "LOW", "MEDIUM", and "HIGH" according to the expected amount of water consumption. The fifty daily discharges are obtained from the SLURP simulations during the drought period. Finally, water balance analysis is performed by K-WEAP based on 150 combinations from three water consumption scenarios and the fifty daily discharges. Analysis of water scarcity in small basins of the Han River basin showed concentration of water scarcity in some small basins. It was also found that water scarcity would increase in all small basins of the Han River basin.

Development of multimedia Contents for Paintings and Orignal Forms of Shaman Spirit in Korean shamanism (한국 무속신앙에 나타난 무신도(巫神圖)와 무신원형의 멀티미디어 컨텐츠 개발 방안 연구)

  • 한지애;류시천;김병욱;고광필;남병호
    • Archives of design research
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.199-208
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    • 2004
  • From the aspect that design should respond to the necessity of various cultural bases, design is important to be grafted to Korean traditional culture. This circumstance leads this study to clarify the plan of multimedia contents development of 'paintings and original forms of shaman spirit' in Korean shamanism as one of realistic re-illumination works for Korean cultural original forms. The main study results are conduded as followings through literature reviews, internet searches and case studies. First, 'the planning process' necessary for the development of scenarios, characters and multimedia contents are suggested based on the establishment of hierarchy structure among shaman spirits which are classified into necromancer, human being, nature and life after death. Second, relating to execution of process above, it is suggested that 'the strategic. plan by business items and its genres' such as blessing fancy goods, characters for mobile or game, scenarios for game or animation, online digital exorcisms, e-cards, e-talismans and so on. Finally, as future industrialization concerns, 'the industrial development plan' is suggested which can be extended to scenario-based original businesses such as game scenarios for online or mobile and heroism fictions. The study results highlight the fact that multimedia design approach are considered for expanding the target and scope of creative material for Korean cultural original forms. Future researches, based on the results of the study, are expected to be expanded to the various designerly-thinking approaches into 'Shaman' themes and rather to be re-illuminated to the development of Korean cultural original forms as a nation's strategic standpoint.

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