• Title/Summary/Keyword: scenario planning

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Movement Simulation on the Path Planned by a Generalized Visibility Graph (일반화 가시성그래프에 의해 계획된 경로이동 시뮬레이션)

  • Yu, Kyeon-Ah;Jeon, Hyun-Joo
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.31-37
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    • 2007
  • The importance of NPC's role in computer games is increasing. An NPC must perform its tasks by perceiving obstacles and other characters and by moving through them. It has been proposed to plan a natural-looking path against fixed obstacles by using a generalized visibility graph. In this paper we develop the execution module for an NPC to move efficiently along the path planned on the generalized visibility graph. The planned path consists of line segments and arc segments, so we define steering behaviors such as linear behaviors, circular behaviors, and an arriving behavior for NPC's movements to be realistic and utilize them during execution. The execution module also includes the collision detection capability to be able to detect dynamic obstacles and uses a decision tree to react differently according to the detected obstacles. The execution module is tested through the simulation based on the example scenario in which an NPC interferes the other moving NPC.

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Construction of Optimal Anti-submarine Search Patterns for the Anti-submarine Ships Cooperating with Helicopters based on Simulation Method (대잠 헬기와의 협동 작전을 고려한 수상함의 최적 대잠탐색 패턴 산출을 위한 시뮬레이션)

  • Yu, Chan-Woo;Park, Sung-Woon
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.33-42
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    • 2014
  • In this paper we analyzed the search patterns for the anti-submarine warfare (ASW) surface ships cooperating with ASW helicopters. For this purpose, we modeled evasive motion of a submarine with a probabilistic method. And maneuvers and search actions of ships and helicopters participating in the anti-submarine search mission are designed. And for each simulation scenario, the case where a ship and a helicopter searches a submarine independently according to its optimized search pattern is compared with the case where the search platforms participate in the ASW mission cooperatively. Based on the simulation results, we proposed the reconfigured search patterns that help cooperative ASW surface ships increase the total cumulative detection probability (CDP).

Predicting the Potential Distribution of an Invasive Species, Solenopsis invicta Buren (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), under Climate Change using Species Distribution Models

  • SUNG, Sunyong;KWON, Yong-Su;LEE, Dong Kun;CHO, Youngho
    • Entomological Research
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    • v.48 no.6
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    • pp.505-513
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    • 2018
  • The red imported fire ant is considered one of the most notorious invasive species because of its adverse impact on both humans and ecosystems. Public concern regarding red imported fire ants has been increasing, as they have been found seven times in South Korea. Even if red imported fire ants are not yet colonized in South Korea, a proper quarantine plan is necessary to prevent their widespread distribution. As a basis for quarantine planning, we modeled the potential distribution of the red imported fire ant under current climate conditions using six different species distribution models (SDMs) and then selected the random forest (RF) model for modeling the potential distribution under climate change. We acquired occurrence data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and bioclimatic data from WorldClim. We modeled at the global scale to project the potential distribution under the current climate and then applied models at the local scale to project the potential distribution of the red imported fire ant under climate change. Modeled results successfully represent the current distribution of red imported fire ants. The potential distribution area for red imported fire ants increased to include major harbors and airports in South Korea under the climate change scenario (RCP 8.5). Thus, we are able to provide a potential distribution of red imported fire ant that is necessary to establish a proper quarantine plan for their management to minimize adverse impacts of climate change.

Study on the Facility Planning for Relief Logistics Relieving Damage from Natural Disaster (자연 재해로 인한 피해 경감을 위한 구호 물류 거점 계획에 대한 연구)

  • Han, Sumin;Jeong, Hanil;Park, Jinwoo
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.51-64
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    • 2018
  • Recently, the magnitude and frequency of the natural disaster have been increased, the damage has become severer. The importance of disaster response system to relieve the damage has arised continuously. This study has tried to develop the algorithm to solve the facility location and size problem in emergency logistics. A facility in the emergency logistics has various roles in victim care, casualty treatment, relief resource management and relief vehicle assistance. Moreover, the location of facility in emergency logistics has to consider the safety and reliability. To gather these information, information management system with IoT sensors are suggested. The location problem in this study also covers various features to response various demands in disaster. To solve this problem, this study suggested MIP based algorithm. Scenario based simulation experiments are conducted to verify the performance suggested algorithm.

Proposal for the list of potential radionuclides of interest during NPP site characterization or final status surveys

  • Seo, Hyung-Woo;Oh, Jae Yong;Shin, Weon Gyu
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.53 no.1
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    • pp.234-243
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    • 2021
  • In the research or project planning for the decommissioning of a nuclear power plant, one of several preparations will be the establishment of a list of potential radionuclides to be considered at the time of characterization or final status surveys. Reliable data for selection of potential radionuclides during the transition period to prepare for decommissioning will depend heavily on historical data at the site or, where possible, sampling analysis. However, during the transition period, direct sampling can be challenging, depending on the circumstances of the site or national regulation. A methodology of selecting potential radionuclides for nuclear facility sites which largely consists of three major processes: production of initial list of radionuclides, selection of the insignificant radionuclide that will be eliminated, and consideration of site characterization or sampling. For developing a preliminary list of potential radionuclides for Kori Unit 1 decommissioning, the list of initial radionuclides was made referring to the technical documents applied at decommissioned NPPs in the U.S and additional reference materials applied until the operation of NPPs in Korea. For the screening of insignificant radionuclides, we applied criterion of less than 0.1% of the amount of radioactivity inventory and confirmed the dose fraction using the RESRAD code. The final suit of radionuclides was established, which should be supplemented by reflecting site characterization and sampling process in the future. Thus, the methodology and results for the selection of potential radionuclides suggested in this paper can give an insight as a future reference to deriving DCGLs in relation to site remediation of decommissioning nuclear plants.

Economic Valuation and Valuating Properties on the Architectural Aesthetic through the Contingent Valuation Method (가상가치법을 통한 건축미의 경제적 가치추정 및 가치부여 특성)

  • Lee, Dong-Joo;Ko, Eun-Hyung
    • Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea Planning & Design
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.25-32
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study is to estimate the economic value of architectural aesthetic using the contingent valuation method and to analyze the value-giving characteristics. The site survey was conducted based on the scenario of Dong-daemun Design Plaza, which is recognized as a work of outstanding architectural aesthetic. Based on 307 opinions collected, the main results are as follows: First, it could be confirmed that the higher the level of architectural aesthetic, the higher the payment amount was. The result of estimating the value of the architectural aesthetic on the basis of the fixed amount levy showed that the average payment amount was 8,859 won per person. The average payment amount was 13,014 won per person when the rejector of payment was excluded. The value of architectural aesthetic was about 13.72% of total construction cost. Second, free riding, which occurs mainly in the measurement of the value of public goods or environmental goods, appeared. This tendency is stronger in the elderly than in the younger, and in the differential amount levy than in the fixed amount levy. Third, the extreme subjectivity of architectural aesthetic value could be confirmed. While there are a lot of extreme denials of payments such as 0 won, the high-income was willing to pay a substantial amount. Fourth, it was confirmed that income factors was partly involved in the measured value.

A Study on the Cost Impact of Additional Construction as Rating G-SEED Certification of Medium-Sized Office Buildings in Korea - Based on G-SEED 2016-2(Effective September 1, 2018) - (국내 중규모 업무용 건물의 녹색건축인증 등급별 추가공사 비용 영향에 관한 연구 - G-SEED 2016-2 기준으로(2018년 9월 1일 시행) -)

  • Lee, Du-Hwan;Kim, Jae-Moon
    • Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea Structure & Construction
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    • v.35 no.10
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    • pp.225-234
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this paper is to analyze the additional construction cost of G-SEED certification for domestic office building reflecting the latest standard(G-SEED 2016-2), and to derive cost impact by category and level. Therefore, it is intended to provide quantitave cost data according to G-SEED certification at the planning phase of the project, estimate the additional construction cost per level according to G-SEED Certification of similar project to be carried out in the future, and encourage G-SEED certification by supporting the decision of the owners. Method: The Process and method of this study are summarized in five steps, 1) Review of previous research, 2) Selection of target project, 3) Scenario setting by level, 4) Additional construction cost for each evaluation category, 5) Extraction of additional construction cost ratio by level. Result: This paper analyzed the cost impact by deriving the additional construction cost of detailed category for level improvement according to the revised G-SEED certification(G-SEED 2016-2). In conclusion, an additional construction cost(ratio) of G-SEED projects to the reference building is drawn as good level; 157,426,241 KWN(+0.43%), very good level; 321,907,802 KWN(+0.88%), excellent level; 999,371,478 KWN(+2.74%), and outstanding level; 1,467,047,718 KWN(+4.02%).

Forecasting the Volume of Imported Passenger Cars at PyeongTaek·Dangjin Port Using System Dynamics (시스템다이내믹스를 활용한 평택·당진항 수입 승용차 물동량 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jae-Gu;Lee, Ki-Hwan
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.44 no.6
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    • pp.517-523
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    • 2020
  • Pyeongtaek·Dangjin port handles the largest volume of finished vehicles in Korea, including more than 95% of imported cars. However, since the volume of imported cars has been stagnant since 2015, officials planning to invest in port development or automobile-related industries must make new forecasts. Economic variables such as the GDP often have been used in predicting automobile volume, but prior research showed that the impact of these economic variables on automobile volume I has been gradually decreasing in developed countries. These variables remain important predictors, however, in developing countries that experience rapid economic growth. In this study, predicting the volume of imported passenger cars at Pyeongtaek·Dangjin port, the decreasing Korean population was a major factor we considered. Our forecast showed that the volume of imported passenger cars at Pyeongtaek·Dangjin port will gradually decrease -by 2021. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) verification was performed to measure the accuracy of the predicted results, and the scenario analysis was performed on the share of imported passenger cars.

A SE Approach for Real-Time NPP Response Prediction under CEA Withdrawal Accident Conditions

  • Felix Isuwa, Wapachi;Aya, Diab
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Systems Engineering
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.75-93
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    • 2022
  • Machine learning (ML) data-driven meta-model is proposed as a surrogate model to reduce the excessive computational cost of the physics-based model and facilitate the real-time prediction of a nuclear power plant's transient response. To forecast the transient response three machine learning (ML) meta-models based on recurrent neural networks (RNNs); specifically, Long Short Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), and a sequence combination of Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and LSTM are developed. The chosen accident scenario is a control element assembly withdrawal at power concurrent with the Loss Of Offsite Power (LOOP). The transient response was obtained using the best estimate thermal hydraulics code, MARS-KS, and cross-validated against the Design and control document (DCD). DAKOTA software is loosely coupled with MARS-KS code via a python interface to perform the Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty Quantification (BEPU) analysis and generate a time series database of the system response to train, test and validate the ML meta-models. Key uncertain parameters identified as required by the CASU methodology were propagated using the non-parametric Monte-Carlo (MC) random propagation and Latin Hypercube Sampling technique until a statistically significant database (181 samples) as required by Wilk's fifth order is achieved with 95% probability and 95% confidence level. The three ML RNN models were built and optimized with the help of the Talos tool and demonstrated excellent performance in forecasting the most probable NPP transient response. This research was guided by the Systems Engineering (SE) approach for the systematic and efficient planning and execution of the research.

Impact of GTX-A Line to Seoul Metropolitan Integrated Public Transit Fare Paradox (GTX-A 노선의 수도권 통합대중교통 요금 Paradox 영향 추정)

  • Seongil Shin;Seok Ho Kim;Hee Chun Kim
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.25-38
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    • 2023
  • Seoul Metropolitan Urban Railroad has an undecided route that does not estimate the passenger transportation route. For this reason, the fare of the urban railroad is calculated by the assumption that passengers pass through the minimum distance. Therefore, if a transfer station on the urban railroad is added, the trip shortest distance could be decreased and the fare also reduced. In this study, this phenomenon defines the fare paradox(Shin, 2022) and estimates the impact of the fare paradox by opening the GTX-A. For this purpose, a scenario before and after the opening of the GTX-A has been established, and an additional fare has been estimated by proportional planning of the Seoul Metropolitan Integrated Distance Based Fare Policy. Fare Paradox was analyzed to about 0.024 % of daily income. It is expected to be used as a plan to determine a rate policy, such as the establishment of a GTX-A, B, C, D, and a light rail line.