• Title/Summary/Keyword: scenario planning

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Developing the Optimized Method of Reliability-Growth Target Setting for Complex and Repairable Products from Business View

  • So, Young-Kug;Jeon, Young-Rok;Ryu, Byeong-Jin
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.248-255
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    • 2015
  • Purpose : The purpose of this research is to develop the optimized method and process in the reliability-growth target setting, especially for complex and repairable system (or products) such as vehicle and airplane, construction equipment. Method : A reliability-growth test plan specifies a scenario to achieve the planned reliability value (or reliability target). The major elements in test planning are reliability-growth starting time and reliability level at that time, reliability-growth rate and reliability-growth target. All of them except a reliability target can be referred to the previous development data and reference researches. The reliability target level is directly influencing to test period (or time) which is related to test and warranty cost together. There are a few researches about the reliability target setting method and but showing the limitations to consider the views of engineering, business and customer together. There is no research how to handle the target setting process in detail. Result : We develop the optimized method and systematic process in reliability target setting with considering such views. This research also establish the new concept as production capability which means company (or supplier) capability to product its products. Conclusion : In this research result, we apply the new method to a few projects and can set the reasonable test planning. The developing results is showing the good balance between the developing cost and warranty cost at market.

Development of a storyboard simulation system for an animator (효율적인 애니메이션 제작을 위한 스토리보드 시뮬레이터 설계 및 구현)

  • Yoo, Kil-Sang;Cho, Ok-Hue;Lee, Won-Hyung
    • 한국HCI학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2009.02a
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    • pp.711-714
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    • 2009
  • Currently digital contents such as games, animation and video art are produced and distributed actively. And moreover by the development of related industries, a variety genre of media is in the process of planning and production. However general-purpose tools such as MAYA and Soft Image do not provide the artists in terms of a variety of unique functions. Thus in this study, we analyzed and developed interface technologies that can help effectively in terms of animation scenario writing, storyboard simulation, rendering and pre-production of story board, interface technology for preview. By our designed simulate planning, people who not professional in the field of animation, can produce and preview animation easily.

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An Analysis of Willingness to Pay for Agricultural Experience of Daegu Urban Agriculture Park (대구 도시농업공원 농업체험에 대한 적정 체험금액분석)

  • Lin, Qing-Long;Lee, Soon-Seok;Jang, Woo-Whan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.101-110
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    • 2014
  • As a rise in national income has resulted in the growth in tourism demand, many studies on developing and managing tourism resources were publicized. In this context, this study was conducted to analyze the demand and willingness to pay(WTP) using contingent valuation method for agricultural experience of Daegu Urban Agriculture Park and to suggest a proper participation fee. The survey targeting Daegu citizens was performed, and we obtained 346 valid samples. We carried out the logistic analysis and figured out that sex, age, education and alienation area for urban agriculture affected to probability of agricultural experience participation. As the result of estimating willingness to pay(WTP), the measured range with this samples was from 6,052 to 16,436won. Finally, we also attained 25,000won as the proper participation fee which enables maximum revenue by conducting the scenario analysis. These findings are important in setting up the construction plan and pricing the appropriate participation fee for Daegu Urban Agriculture Park.

An Automatic Urban Function District Division Method Based on Big Data Analysis of POI

  • Guo, Hao;Liu, Haiqing;Wang, Shengli;Zhang, Yu
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.645-657
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    • 2021
  • Along with the rapid development of the economy, the urban scale has extended rapidly, leading to the formation of different types of urban function districts (UFDs), such as central business, residential and industrial districts. Recognizing the spatial distributions of these districts is of great significance to manage the evolving role of urban planning and further help in developing reliable urban planning programs. In this paper, we propose an automatic UFD division method based on big data analysis of point of interest (POI) data. Considering that the distribution of POI data is unbalanced in a geographic space, a dichotomy-based data retrieval method was used to improve the efficiency of the data crawling process. Further, a POI spatial feature analysis method based on the mean shift algorithm is proposed, where data points with similar attributive characteristics are clustered to form the function districts. The proposed method was thoroughly tested in an actual urban case scenario and the results show its superior performance. Further, the suitability of fit to practical situations reaches 88.4%, demonstrating a reasonable UFD division result.

Estimation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG) Inventory and Reduction Plans for Low Carbon Green Campus in Daegu University (저탄소 그린캠퍼스 조성을 위한 온실가스 인벤토리 구축 및 감축잠재량 분석 - 대구대학교를 중심으로)

  • Jeong, YeongJin;Li, KaiChao;Kim, TaeOh;Hwang, InJo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.36 no.7
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    • pp.506-513
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    • 2014
  • The objective of this study is to establish the greenhouse gases (GHG) inventories and estimate the GHG reduction plans for Daegu University from 2009 to 2011. The annual average of GHG emissions in Daegu University was estimated to be 19,413 ton $CO_2$ eq during the study period. Emissions of electricity usage in Scope 2 most contributed about 55.4% of the total GHG emissions. Also, GHG emissions of Scope 2, Scope 1, and Scope 3 contributed 60.4%, 22.6%, and 17.0%, respectively. In order to estimate reduction potential of GHG, the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model was calculated using three scenarios such as sensor installation, LED replacement, and solar facility. The GHG will be reduced by 1,656 ton $CO_2$ eq for LED scenario, by 1,041 ton $CO_2$ eq for sensor scenario, and by 737 ton $CO_2$ eq for solar scenario compared to 2020 business as usual (BAU). Therefore, the total GHG emissions in 2020 apply three scenarios can be reduced by 15% compared with 2020 BAU.

Optimal Size Determination of Flood Mitigation Facilities in a Watershed Using Geo-Spatial Information System and Economic Analysis: Focused on Dam Height Raise Project (지형공간정보체계와 경제성분석을 활용한 유역단위 홍수저감시설 규모결정 방안 연구 - 댐증고사업을 중심으로 -)

  • Choi, Cheon-Kyu;Kim, Gil-Ho;Yeo, Kyu-Dong;Shim, Myung-Pil;Choi, Yun-Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.64-78
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    • 2013
  • To achieve economic efficiency in a basin flood mitigation planning, it is important to determine optimal sizes of investment alternatives. Investment alternative means decision proposals composed with one more individual proposals, and it is not easy to determine an optimal one because there are so many individual proposals. This study aims to propose the approach of determining the optimal project size for raising dam height. This study applies two scenarios to determine investment alternatives for the 4 dams in the Yeongsan River basin. 'Scenario1' calculates flood mitigation for each individual proposal. And 'Scenario2' calculates that for each investment alternative composed with one more individual proposals. As the results, 'Scenario2' is better than 'Scenario1' for selecting a economically optimal dam height considering watershed conditions comprehensively.

Future Scenarios of Asian Universities in a view Point of Equality (평등의 관점에서 본 아시아 대학의 미래 시나리오)

  • Ryu, Cheong-San
    • Korean Journal of Comparative Education
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    • v.24 no.5
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    • pp.53-70
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    • 2014
  • This study was performed in order to suggest the future model of Asian universities that could be used in the planning of the global competitive strategy. Futurologists forecasted the future of higher education using Harman Fan Scenario as like this. First, most current universities will be 'the satellite university' until 2015. Second, they also will replace 'the bookless university' until 2020. Third, they will be 'no calendar university' until 2025. And then they may be 'all have access university' until 2030. After 2030, futurologists prospected that almost universities based on off-line campus will be disappeared into the history. The analysis method of Harman fan scenario and applied scenarios were also used to "A study on the future scenario of Korean university". The predictive model and the alternative models were explored in a view point of students, enterprise, and government. Individuality with educational excellence are standardized for learner, profit and effectiveness are applied for enterpriser, and equality with welfare are adapted for national leader. Asian universities need to focus on bringing up the practical ability based on conscious and emotional education instead of knowledge based on memory. Also they need to enforce the specialized education that can create new jobs through convergence of interdisciplinary. Especially, Asian nations need to explore, to find the strengthen area of their universities compared with USA. And these area should be specialized. The convergency strategy between oriental medicine and informatics is a meaningful sample. Based on this point, a predicted with 3 alternative scenarios in a view point of equality were suggested for the future of Asian universities.

Development of Urban Flood Risk Maps for Strengthening Urban Planning Toward Disaster Prevention (재해예방형 도시계획 지원을 위한 도시침수 위험도 공간정보 개발)

  • Lee, Jongso;Lee, Sangeun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.203-213
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    • 2018
  • This study aims to propose the methods for urban flood risk maps which are useful in strengthening urban planning toward disaster prevention by climate change. Selecting the Gwangju city, Gyeonggi-do as study area, it analyzes urban flood at a RCP 8.5 scenario, and develops gridded information regarding risk components such as hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. It turns out that flooding would occur at a bend interval of the Mokhyun stream and also at the joint of the Gyungan and the Mokhyun streams, showing the similarity with the inundation trace map. In particular, the Songjeong dong is analyzed to be seriously exposed and to be highly vulnerable to flood inundation. With all results together, this study concludes that the proposed methods could be used as a basis for strengthening urban planning toward flood disaster prevention system.

Estimating Equipment and vehicle Demands for Snow Removal Tasks by Road Snow Removal Scenarios (도로 제설 시나리오별 소요 제설장비 및 차량 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Heejae;Kim, Sunyoung;Kim, Geunyoung
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.199-212
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    • 2017
  • Rapid roadway snow removal is significantly important due to difficult occurrence estimation of heavy snowfall disasters by global warming and climate change. Local governments of S. Korea have snow removal equipments and vehicles based on past experiences without considering snowfall and roadway characteristics. The objective of this research is to develop the demand estimation procedure for snow removal equipments and vehicles based on regional snowfall and roadway characteristics. This research first classifies regional snowfall characteristics using KMO's ten-year snowfall data. Second, roadway snow removal length is computed for local governments. Real possession data is compared with demand estimation of snow removal equipments & vehicles for each local government with roadway snow removal scenarios. Finally, required demands of snow removal equipments & vehicles are predicted by concerning regional snowfall amount and required snow removal hours. Results from this research are used for developing heavy snowfall disaster management policies for optimal demands and snow removal routes of 229 local governments.

An Optimal Investment Planning Model for Improving the Reliability of Layered Air Defense System based on a Network Model (다층 대공방어 체계의 신뢰도 향상을 위한 네트워크 모델 기반의 최적 투자 계획 모델)

  • Lee, Jinho;Chung, Suk-Moon
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.105-113
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    • 2017
  • This study considers an optimal investment planning for improving survivability from an air threat in the layered air defense system. To establish an optimization model, we first represent the layered air defense system as a network model, and then, present two optimization models minimizing the failure probability of counteracting an air threat subject to budget limitation, in which one deals with whether to invest and the other enables continuous investment on the subset of nodes. Nonlinear objective functions are linearized using log function, and we suggest dynamic programming algorithm and linear programing for solving the proposed models. After designing a layered air defense system based on a virtual scenario, we solve the two optimization problems and analyze the corresponding optimal solutions. This provides necessity and an approach for an effective investment planning of the layered air defense system.