• Title/Summary/Keyword: scenario planning

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Supporting Market Entry Decisions For Global Expansion Using Option +Scenario Planning Analysis (실물옵션 및 시나리오 분석을 활용한 해외 건설시장 진출 의사결정 지원모델의 개발)

  • Kim, Byung-Il;Kim, Du-Yon;Han, Seung-Heon
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.10 no.5
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    • pp.135-147
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    • 2009
  • The world has witnessed the dramatic expansion of international construction markets during the last decades, particularly around the developing economies and energy resource-rich countries. However, despite the booming markets, the risks of emerging regions have also increased under the rapidly changing environments confronting the global contractors. Most of all, success in overseas business mainly depends on selecting the right market to enter. Accordingly, the right market selection requires global firms to carefully carry out the scientific market entry decision by evaluating country risks, market prospects, firm's capability, level of competition, and among others. This study aims at developing a market entry model by the use of real option analysis (ROA) and scenario planning, which addresses the corporate strategic flexibility against the uncertainties encompassing the overseas construction markets. Based on the suggested approach, global contractors are expected to make a better decision rather than a typically static approach in pursuing, postponing, or abandoning a prospective market to their capacity with a concurrent consideration of uncertainties as well as its option value.

Greenhouse Gas Reduction Scenario from LEAP Model Application to a University Campus-For Hanyang University Ansan Campus (LEAP 모델 적용을 통한 대학단위 온실가스 감축안 도출 - 한양대학교 안산캠퍼스 대상으로)

  • Park, Hyo-Jeong;Jung, Hye-Jin;Yi, Seung-Muk;Park, Jae-Woo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.280-287
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    • 2012
  • The sources of greenhouse gases (GHG) at Hanyang University Ansan campus, including direct sources, indirect sources, and others, were investigated in order to establish the GHG inventory. Emission of GHG was calculated with the energy use from each source from 2007 and 2009. The indirect emission (56.7%) due to the electricity significantly contributed to total GHG emission. The scenario for the GHG reduction was designed for both campus administration and members. The reduction potential of GHG was simulated from 2007 to 2020 using Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model. In case of GHG reduction scenario by campus administration, the GHG can be reduced by 63.34 ton $CO_{2eq}/yr$ for stationary combustion in the direct source, by 221.1 ton $CO_{2eq}/yr$ for mobile combustion in the direct source, and by 4,637.34 ton $CO_{2eq}/yr$ for lighting in the indirect source, compared to 2020 Business As Usual (BAU). In case of GHG reduction action scenario by campus members, the reduction potential of GHG was 1293.76 ton $CO_{2eq}/yr$. Overall, the total GHG emissions in 2020 by the both scenarios can be decreased by 24% compared to 2020 BAU.

Analyzing Korean Media Industry Trends and Competitive Strategies by Introducing Comprehensive Programming Channels (종합편성채널 도입에 따른 국내 미디어산업 변화 및 사업자 경쟁방안에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, Ji-Yeon;Song, Ju-Ho;Lee, Bong-Gyou
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.39-53
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    • 2011
  • Recently, a new media reform bill has passed through the National Assembly in Korea. The introduction of comprehensive programming channels that combine news and entertainment programs is expected to have a direct and indirect effect on the media related industry. And it affects not only existing traditional media operators, but also companies that consider entering the comprehensive programming business. This study analyzes the changes caused by the emergence of new businesses and identifies competitive strategies. Using Scenario Network Mapping (SNM) that is a scenario planning methodology for developing an industry network map in a complex environment. As a result of this study, the following competitive factors were identified: new business competitiveness, government policy and support, and content differentiation. This study has significance as an initial study on comprehensive programming channels strategies. It also provides implications to the government and the entrepreneur who is considering starting a comprehensive programming business.

The Analysis of Flooding by Virtual Flood Scenario (가상 홍수시나리오에 의한 홍수범람 해석)

  • 윤희천;엄대용;이용욱;김정우
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.181-189
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    • 2003
  • A virtual flood scenario has been constructed to investigate the overflowing process in the flooding area. The topography is constructed using the airborne LIDAR data. In addition, the frequency and scale of the flooding and the destruction condition of the flooding defensive structure are used as input to the scenarios. Through the scenario, the inundation depth with respect to time and maximum depth has been analyzed. This analysis shows the water level variation with time which show the flooding process. Moreover, a flooding map is drawn using the results from the scenario, distribution of the defensive structure, vulnerable area, and expected destruction points in the study area. It is expected that this study can be effectively used to examine the flooding process and flood disaster management. Furthermore, it could provide important basic information for the land development and the city planning of a possible flooding area.

Determination of seismic hazard and soil response of a critical region in Turkey considering far-field and near-field earthquake effect

  • Sonmezer, Yetis Bulent;Celiker, Murat
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.131-146
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    • 2020
  • Evaluation of earthquake impacts in settlements with a high risk of earthquake occurrence is important for the determination of site-specific dynamic soil parameters and earthquake-resistant structural planning. In this study, dynamic soil properties of Karliova (Bingol) city center, located near to the intersection point of the North Anatolian Fault Zone and the East Anatolian Fault Zone and therefore having a high earthquake risk, were investigated by one-dimensional equivalent linear site response analysis. From ground response analyses, peak ground acceleration, predominant site period, 0.2-sec and 1-sec spectral accelerations and soil amplification maps of the study area were obtained for both near-field and far-field earthquake effects. The average acceleration spectrum obtained from analysis, for a near-field earthquake scenario, was found to exceed the design spectra of the Turkish Earthquake Code and Eurocode 8. Yet, the average acceleration spectrum was found to remain below the respective design spectra of the two codes for the far-field earthquake scenario. According to both near- and far-field earthquake scenarios in the study area, the low-rise buildings with low modal vibration durations are expected to be exposed to high spectral acceleration values and high-rise buildings with high modal vibration durations will be exposed to lower spectral accelerations. While high amplification ratios are observed in the north of the study area for the near-distance earthquake scenario, high amplification ratios are observed in the south of the study area for the long-distance earthquake scenario.

A Study on Future System Construction Using WSCR Strengthness Index based on Python (Python 기반 WSCR 강건 지수를 이용한 미래계통 구축에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Seong-Jun;Hur, Jin;Kim, Hyun-Jin;Cho, Yoon-Sung
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.67 no.8
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    • pp.994-1001
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    • 2018
  • In this paper, to studied about future power system construction using PSS / E-Python API. Python-based future system automatical construction methods and modeling of renewable sources. it confirmed the stability of the powert system for each renewable area by calculating the weighted short circuit ratio (WSCR) index. it calculated the short circuit ratio (SCR) and selected the transmission line linkage scenario to improve the stability of vulnerable areas. it confirmed the WSCR index improvement through the selected transmission line linkage of scenario, and analyzed the stability of the renewable power system applying the scenario. It describes Facts and Shunt devices adjustment for the load flow convergence. It describes the stable methed of the bus voltage through the transformer Ratio Tap adjustment. By performing PSS/E ASCC using the Python it was performed three-phase short circuit fault capacity analysis, it is confirmed whether excess of the fault current circuit breaker capacity. In order to contingency accident analysis, it have described the generation of one or two line list of each areas using the Python. The list is used to contingency analysis and describe the soluted of the transmission line overload through comparison before and after adding the scenario line.

Projecting suitable habitats considering locational characteristics of major wild vegetables and climate change impacts

  • Choi, Jaeyong;Lee, Sanghyuk
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.46 no.3
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    • pp.661-670
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    • 2019
  • In this study, we constructed a model of an area where the production and production amount of wild vegetables which are designated as short term income forest products for the whole country are self-sufficient for the representative Eastern Braken fern(Pteridium aquilinum)and Edible aster(Aster scaber). The difference between the existing cultivation site and the model result was examined, and the distribution of the cultivable area was simulated according to the near future climate change by the 2050s. The degree of agreement between the cultivated area and the actual native area was very low at 14.5% for Eastern Braken fern and 12.9% for Edible aster. Using the Maxent model, which has already been proven by many research examples, the cultivation maps through the model can guarantee statistical accuracy by considering many variables. To analyze future location changes, the RCP 4.5 scenario and the RCP 8.5 scenario were applie Edible aster d to predict potential future cultivable areas and compare them to the present. There was no decrease in the cultivable area due to climate change nationwide. However, in the RCP 8.5 scenario for Eastern Braken fern and the RCP 4.5 scenario for Edible aster, declining areas such as Gangwon-do, Jeollabuk-do and Gyeongsangbuk-do showed prominence according to the scenarios. The result of this study suggests that various models can be used for the production of short-term forest productivity maps and it will be used as a climate change impact assessment data for competitive forest products considering the influence of future climate change.

Calculation of preliminary site-specific DCGLs for nuclear power plant decommissioning using hybrid scenarios

  • Seo, Hyung-Woo;Sohn, Wook
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.51 no.4
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    • pp.1098-1108
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    • 2019
  • Korea's first commercial nuclear power plant at Kori site was permanently shut down in 2017 and is currently in transition stage. Preparatory activities for decommissioning such as historical site assessment, characterization, and dismantling design are being actively carried out for successful D&D (Dismantling and Decontamination) at Kori site. The ultimate goal of decommissioning will be to ensure the safety of workers and residents that may arise during the decommissioning of nuclear facilities and, thereby finally returning the site to its original status in accordance with the release criteria. Upon completion of decommissioning, the resident's safety at a site released will be assessed from the evaluation of dose caused by radionuclides expected to be present or detected at the site. Although the U.S. commercial nuclear power plants with decommissioning experience use different site release criteria, most of them are 0.25 mSv/y. In Korea, both the unrestricted and restricted release criteria have been set to 0.1 mSv/y by the Nuclear Safety and Security Commission. However, since the dose is difficult to measure, measurable concentration guideline levels for residual radionuclides that result in dose equivalent to the site release criteria should be derived. For this derivation, site reuse scenario, selection of potential radionuclides, and systematic methodology should be developed in planning stage of Kori site decommissioning. In this paper, for calculation of a preliminary site-specific Derived Concentration Guideline Levels (DCGLs) for the Nuclear Power Plant site, a novel approach has been developed which can fully reflect practical reuse plans of the Kori site by taking into account multiple site reuse scenarios sequentially, thereby striking a remarkable distinction with conventional approaches which considers only a single site scenario.

Warranty Models with Discrete Preventive Maintenance (이산예방보수 정책을 고려한 보증모형분석)

  • Kim, Che-Soong
    • IE interfaces
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.286-296
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    • 2002
  • Products which are sold with warranty, preventive maintenance actions by manufacturers and/or buyers have an impact on the total costs for both parties. In this paper, we develop the models to study the expected warranty cost for products with free repairable warranty with three types of discrete preventive maintenance. We deal with by utilizing the concept that preventive maintenance reduces the virtual age of the system. We assume that the maintenance planning horizon can be segmented into k discrete and equally sized periods. In such a scenario, numerical examples are presented.

A Study on Link Design of Ka-band Satellite Multimedia Service (Ka 밴드 위성을 이용한 멀티미디어 서비스의 링크 설계에 관한 연구)

  • 김영춘;황성현;최형진;류규태
    • Proceedings of the IEEK Conference
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    • 1999.11a
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    • pp.829-832
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    • 1999
  • KORTASAT-III is planning to provide Ka-band broadband communication service, including eastsouth Asia area. In this paper, we calculate the link budget for Ka-band KOREASAT-III multimedia service and describe the performance of multimedia services according to link design parameters. There are Trunk service, Television receive only service, Two-way point-to-multipoint service, Tele-education service in the service scenario.

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